Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 6 October 2018 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 1 October 2018, Bournemouth 2 1 Crystal_Palace; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          7   19  +18       1.56    71.19     2.35    89.95     7.39    70.23    63.16    85.66    94.85    98.51    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         7   19  +12       5.28    95.48     4.98    83.44     8.10    49.58    22.62    57.87    79.23    91.34    99.29     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           7   17  +10       2.86    79.80     2.60    75.35     8.33    35.15     4.62    17.90    40.23    65.18    94.64     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         7   15   +7       1.08    60.49    -0.18    77.68     8.14    40.45     7.51    26.89    53.18    75.44    96.93     0.00R    0.00  
Arsenal           7   15   +5       2.42    74.38     0.08    71.38     8.62    27.75     1.76     9.11    23.36    44.73    87.09     0.00R    0.00  
Watford           7   13   +3       4.94    91.83     5.71    49.70     8.34    -8.66     0.00     0.03     0.13     0.52     6.80     2.35R    0.15  
Bournemouth       7   13   +0       3.81    85.48     1.02    48.38     8.32   -15.11     0.00     0.01     0.09     0.36     4.89     3.70R    0.26  
Leicester         7   12   +3       2.12    72.26     2.77    55.37     8.74     2.15     0.01     0.14     0.79     2.82    20.57     0.57R    0.03  
Wolverhampton     7   12   +2       4.12    87.95     4.89    49.41     8.61    -7.14     0.00     0.02     0.12     0.60     6.69     3.22R    0.25  
Man_Utd           7   10   -2      -2.74    22.20    -6.66    65.77     8.32    18.27     0.33     2.37     7.92    19.87    71.00     0.01R    0.00  
Everton           7    9   +0      -1.86    29.75    -1.74    47.96     8.47    -7.61     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.33     5.08     4.12R    0.29  
Burnley           7    7   -2      -2.41    25.36    -1.92    42.92     8.05   -13.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.21    10.91R    1.11  
Crystal_Palace    7    7   -3      -2.00    29.48    -1.99    41.96     8.13   -16.49     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     1.04    13.61R    1.51  
West_Ham          7    7   -4       0.01    52.11     0.97    44.98     8.47   -13.75     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.14     2.34     8.62R    0.93  
Brighton          7    5   -5      -1.10    38.96     1.34    40.26     8.23   -16.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.72    19.16R    2.69  
Southampton       7    5   -5      -3.29    17.39    -2.81    41.14     8.14   -16.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.77    16.14R    2.22  
Fulham            7    5   -8      -1.50    34.46    -0.89    35.82     8.58   -30.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.29    40.13R    9.47  
Newcastle         7    2   -6      -5.13     5.09    -1.86    40.44     8.21   -12.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.71    17.91R    2.47  
Cardiff           7    2  -12      -3.77    11.32    -4.87    28.52     7.97   -40.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    74.35R   31.37  
Huddersfield      7    2  -13      -2.77    17.10    -3.80    25.82     7.15   -44.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.20R   47.26  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 3 October 2018, Blackburn 0 2 Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    11   22  +13       5.18    86.67    10.31    76.91     9.56    23.36    10.57    23.39    64.90    32.74P    0.04R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   11   22  +10       3.42    77.18     4.97    83.00     9.16    28.90    25.63    46.98    85.40    59.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       11   22   +7       5.52    87.94     4.89    74.42     9.66    13.57     6.70    15.62    53.82    23.65P    0.12R    0.00  
West_Brom       11   21  +11       0.82    56.30     2.93    84.49     9.91    35.31    35.25    54.64    86.57    65.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Norwich         11   18   +1       3.41    76.76     1.77    67.07     9.50     2.34     1.29     3.81    24.78     7.68P    1.05R    0.13  
Brentford       11   17   +6      -0.56    45.26     2.20    69.91     9.65    13.33     3.03     7.90    36.50    14.92P    0.52R    0.08  
Swansea         11   17   +4      -0.31    47.46     0.59    73.77     9.59    16.86     5.84    14.37    52.16    25.41P    0.16R    0.02  
Derby           11   17   +2      -1.31    38.62    -2.74    69.43     9.42     8.79     2.42     6.51    33.85    13.53P    0.42R    0.04  
Wigan           11   17   +2       0.18    51.79    -0.63    69.55     9.73     8.95     2.75     7.33    34.38    13.97P    0.65R    0.06  
Bristol_City    11   16   +3       0.68    56.07     2.66    66.91     9.57     7.23     1.43     4.09    25.42     8.65P    1.16R    0.14  
Nott'm_Forest   11   16   +2       1.85    66.44     3.49    59.76     9.41    -4.61     0.20     0.76     8.10     2.00P    5.65R    1.01  
Sheff_Wed       11   16   +0       0.75    56.77    -0.19    65.56     9.40     2.29     0.90     2.92    20.17     6.55P    1.45R    0.22  
Aston_Villa     11   15   +1      -2.93    26.73    -3.28    68.83     9.50     9.84     2.22     6.24    32.06    13.00P    0.62R    0.09  
Blackburn       11   15   -2       0.24    52.91    -1.45    61.11     9.72    -4.81     0.39     1.29    10.54     3.25P    4.95R    0.97  
Bolton          11   15   -4       4.12    83.59     2.42    50.32     8.65   -22.66     0.01     0.03     0.70     0.10P   27.85R    7.74  
Stoke           11   13   -2      -3.61    22.50    -4.22    65.98     9.99     5.59     1.29     3.75    23.33     8.79P    1.97R    0.33  
QPR             11   13  -10       0.96    59.78    -5.13    51.18     9.05   -25.71     0.03     0.06     1.04     0.23P   25.94R    7.63  
Birmingham      11   11   -1      -0.50    47.13     4.07    49.82     8.90   -13.81     0.00     0.02     0.74     0.12P   28.96R    8.77  
Rotherham       11   11   -8       0.45    56.22    -0.65    44.84     9.12   -30.51     0.00     0.01     0.19     0.04P   53.01R   24.23  
Reading         11    9   -2      -4.52    16.39     0.61    48.83     9.12   -15.03     0.01     0.03     0.62     0.13P   33.34R   11.34  
Hull            11    8   -8      -5.87    10.13    -5.94    52.58     9.45   -14.21     0.02     0.11     1.79     0.46P   21.27R    5.99  
Millwall        11    7   -7      -5.88     9.24    -3.82    51.77     9.25   -11.73     0.01     0.06     1.26     0.32P   22.53R    6.52  
Ipswich         11    6   -8      -7.40     4.41    -5.63    46.45     9.08   -19.29     0.01     0.02     0.30     0.08P   43.61R   16.99  
Preston         11    6  -10      -7.38     4.35    -7.23    51.45     9.50   -14.02     0.01     0.07     1.38     0.35P   24.72R    7.73  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 October 2018, AFC_Wimbledon 0 1 Bradford; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           11   27  +13       9.28    97.85     9.14    80.95     9.67    21.67    15.41    31.97    78.47    42.62P    0.02R    0.00  
Peterborough         11   24  +13       5.74    88.32     8.13    83.58     9.86    30.89    23.83    44.23    85.54    55.08P    0.02R    0.00  
Doncaster            11   21   +8       4.71    84.25     6.20    72.13     9.61    12.53     3.29     8.78    45.62    16.88P    0.56R    0.02  
Sunderland           11   20  +10      -0.21    47.28     2.12    83.45     9.91    33.67    24.30    44.09    85.40    58.15P    0.03R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   11   20   +3       5.66    88.11     3.95    64.26     9.83    -2.52     0.61     2.03    17.84     4.85P    4.59R    0.38  
Barnsley             10   19  +12       0.10    49.89     4.17    82.92    10.39    33.74    24.37    42.84    82.77    56.51P    0.04R    0.01  
Walsall              11   19   +2       4.22    81.70     2.39    64.63     9.55    -1.48     0.56     1.89    17.97     4.97P    3.78R    0.28  
Charlton             11   18   +2       1.73    64.34     0.33    70.88     9.71     9.17     2.33     6.95    40.29    14.72P    0.85R    0.05  
Scunthorpe           11   17   -3       0.75    56.23    -4.59    70.68     9.90     5.37     2.40     7.00    39.38    14.81P    1.12R    0.07  
Luton                11   16   +1       1.21    60.55     1.47    65.58    10.15     3.28     0.96     3.02    22.32     7.39P    3.85R    0.36  
Southend             11   16   -1       0.95    58.60    -0.88    63.52     9.69    -2.08     0.47     1.64    16.04     4.55P    5.07R    0.43  
Blackpool            10   15   +3       0.70    56.90     2.08    64.74     9.66     3.84     0.58     2.05    19.45     5.81P    3.83R    0.27  
Fleetwood_Town       11   14   +4      -1.76    35.64     3.06    64.20     9.56     7.29     0.48     1.75    18.23     5.52P    3.90R    0.30  
Coventry             11   12   -4      -0.46    47.33    -0.48    51.70     9.27   -14.92     0.01     0.05     1.42     0.30P   32.89R    6.24  
Rochdale             11   12   -8      -0.86    43.95    -4.25    56.68     9.68   -13.43     0.05     0.24     4.88     1.15P   18.07R    2.71  
Burton_Albion        10   11   -2      -2.78    27.56    -2.13    59.23    10.04    -3.36     0.19     0.72     8.80     2.62P   12.04R    1.52  
AFC_Wimbledon        11   11   -6      -1.58    37.24    -2.50    51.20     9.09   -16.74     0.00     0.04     1.15     0.24P   34.55R    6.72  
Bristol_Rovers       11   10   -2      -4.42    17.51    -0.99    53.66     9.49    -8.55     0.03     0.12     2.63     0.69P   25.53R    4.29  
Bradford             11   10   -7      -3.82    20.66    -5.32    54.45     9.44   -12.17     0.02     0.12     2.81     0.69P   23.29R    3.94  
Shrewsbury           11    9   -2      -6.25     8.47    -2.44    58.39     9.29     0.39     0.09     0.36     6.03     1.81P   11.63R    1.39  
Wycombe              11    9   -5      -2.80    28.42     0.01    45.64     9.54   -23.09     0.00     0.02     0.46     0.10P   58.34R   20.02  
Gillingham           10    8   -7      -3.63    20.77    -3.53    51.51     9.84   -16.45     0.02     0.06     1.87     0.39P   34.80R    7.96  
Oxford_Utd           11    5  -12      -7.88     3.51    -8.34    46.22     9.53   -23.15     0.00     0.01     0.42     0.09P   56.24R   18.45  
Plymouth             11    4  -12      -8.16     2.46    -7.59    44.06     9.29   -23.91     0.00     0.01     0.21     0.05P   64.99R   24.60  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 October 2018, Cambridge_Utd 1 3 Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     11   25  +12       7.08    93.74     7.79    81.58     9.46    24.82    22.35    52.96    84.07    60.63P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           11   23  +10       4.69    84.29     5.11    81.11     9.60    25.29    21.50    50.93    82.62    59.36P    0.01R    0.00  
Newport_County   11   23   -1       8.42    96.64    -0.20    66.49     9.43    -7.79     1.22     6.36    26.47     9.54P    0.36R    0.06  
Colchester       11   19  +13       0.79    56.31     8.29    77.28     9.51    28.50    12.26    36.56    72.36    46.43P    0.01R    0.00  
Forest_Green     11   19   +8       4.58    83.79     9.02    64.41     9.50     4.10     0.93     4.76    21.36     7.86P    0.57R    0.12  
MK_Dons          11   18   +4       0.21    51.65     0.03    78.26     9.83    22.07    13.97    39.79    73.87    50.40P    0.02R    0.00  
Stevenage        11   18   +2       1.83    65.55     0.38    64.86     9.45     0.69     0.88     4.88    22.17     8.52P    0.54R    0.09  
Oldham           11   17   +6      -1.60    36.62     0.75    75.59     9.86    21.66     9.51    30.15    65.04    40.73P    0.02R    0.00  
Bury             11   17   +4      -0.28    47.65     0.67    73.67     9.91    17.10     6.71    23.40    57.12    32.64P    0.05R    0.01  
Tranmere         11   17   +3       3.34    76.65     4.78    63.44     9.72     1.28     0.68     4.02    18.78     6.87P    1.01R    0.20  
Swindon          11   16   +1      -0.47    46.53    -1.09    69.33     9.73     9.00     2.65    11.67    38.95    18.33P    0.17R    0.03  
Crawley_Town     11   16   +0       2.19    68.68     1.91    61.27     9.36    -4.08     0.36     2.16    12.63     4.03P    1.44R    0.31  
Carlisle         11   16   -2       0.30    52.98    -2.94    64.97     9.48    -0.24     0.92     4.84    22.17     8.83P    0.59R    0.12  
Mansfield        10   15   +7      -1.19    39.37     3.33    72.57     9.58    19.19     4.90    19.55    53.49    29.44P    0.05R    0.01  
Yeovil           11   15   +5       1.16    60.60     6.90    63.55     9.57     5.79     0.70     4.00    19.42     7.10P    0.85R    0.20  
Port_Vale        11   14   +0      -0.46    46.94     0.73    60.69     9.30    -1.42     0.25     1.89    11.75     3.90P    1.55R    0.40  
Crewe            10   11   +0      -2.33    30.74     0.61    56.87     9.66    -5.36     0.11     1.01     6.77     2.19P    4.43R    1.05  
Morecambe        11   10  -12      -1.74    35.95    -7.12    46.22     8.79   -29.25     0.00     0.03     0.33     0.07P   27.61R    9.36  
Cheltenham       11    9   -6      -4.80    15.16    -4.03    50.15     9.28   -16.35     0.00     0.11     1.26     0.32P   14.72R    4.60  
Notts_County     11    9  -11      -5.29    13.09    -9.56    54.67     9.62   -14.99     0.04     0.40     4.06     1.20P    7.61R    2.25  
Northampton      11    8   -9      -6.32     8.50    -7.93    53.76     9.90   -12.23     0.04     0.44     3.82     1.24P    9.16R    2.85  
Grimsby          11    8  -11      -3.36    22.60    -5.67    44.29     8.77   -27.82     0.00     0.01     0.17     0.04P   35.48R   13.10  
Cambridge_Utd    11    8  -12      -5.14    12.87    -9.10    50.32     9.26   -20.55     0.00     0.07     1.30     0.33P   15.31R    5.09  
Macclesfield     11    4  -11      -5.84     7.62    -2.67    34.22     8.90   -39.40     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    78.45R   60.16  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 September 2018, AFC_Fylde 3 0 Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Salford_City       14   30  +15       8.86    94.37    12.10    78.96     9.54    22.86    16.25    64.05    27.42P    0.07R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient      14   29  +17       5.04    82.94    10.01    84.27     8.76    34.27    34.75    84.42    49.94P    0.01R    0.00  
Harrogate_Town     14   29  +13       8.57    93.66    11.04    77.72     9.75    20.34    13.54    58.81    23.72P    0.14R    0.00  
Wrexham            14   28  +11       6.47    89.28     7.51    77.13     8.49    19.08     9.52    56.92    21.54P    0.03R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     14   28   +7       9.54    96.36     7.97    70.83     8.67     5.98     2.58    27.74     7.06P    0.49R    0.00  
Sutton_United      14   26   +4       5.60    85.27     2.17    73.57     8.82     9.76     4.53    39.56    12.40P    0.30R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          14   25  +13       1.41    59.95     6.36    77.62     8.83    26.03    11.86    60.53    26.09P    0.06R    0.00  
Hartlepool         14   24   +2       3.66    75.29     0.21    66.53     8.62     0.67     0.91    14.52     3.71P    1.79R    0.02  
Gateshead          14   23   +5       1.92    64.12     2.10    70.02     8.78     9.98     2.28    26.22     8.27P    0.80R    0.01  
Halifax            14   20   +3       2.66    70.22     5.32    60.10     8.48    -1.60     0.12     3.90     0.77P    7.96R    0.14  
Eastleigh          14   20   -5       3.31    74.42    -1.54    60.93     8.68    -8.92     0.16     4.71     1.00P    7.96R    0.21  
Boreham_Wood       14   19   -1      -1.00    42.72    -2.44    63.81     8.64     1.07     0.35     8.83     2.36P    3.75R    0.04  
Barnet             14   19   -4      -3.23    27.29    -8.66    69.44     9.09     5.68     2.18    24.20     8.85P    1.13R    0.01  
Barrow             14   18   +1      -1.11    42.26     0.94    59.00     8.69    -2.74     0.11     3.38     0.78P   10.51R    0.26  
Ebbsfleet_United   14   18   +0      -1.05    43.05    -0.05    63.89     8.74     3.23     0.44     9.38     2.47P    3.77R    0.06  
Maidenhead         14   17   -2      -0.97    43.65    -0.12    56.65     8.86    -8.62     0.07     2.10     0.48P   17.58R    0.69  
Bromley            14   14   -5      -4.81    18.42    -4.41    57.68     8.97    -5.49     0.08     2.72     0.67P   14.69R    0.67  
Maidstone_United   14   14   -7      -1.57    39.26    -1.95    49.60     8.34   -18.59     0.00     0.19     0.03P   45.40R    3.52  
Aldershot          14   14  -10      -4.41    20.25    -9.16    56.93     8.69   -10.85     0.07     1.78     0.44P   16.37R    0.63  
Chesterfield       14   12   -6      -9.16     4.36    -9.00    60.19     9.25     0.55     0.19     5.34     1.85P    9.69R    0.30  
Havant_&_Wville    14   11  -10      -2.62    32.23    -0.76    42.30     8.86   -30.79     0.00     0.04     0.01P   76.32R   17.28  
Dag_&_Red          14    9   -9     -10.37     2.04    -9.42    51.03     8.81   -11.49     0.01     0.44     0.12P   37.82R    2.92  
Dover_Athletic     14    7  -16     -10.38     1.68   -13.41    49.15     8.94   -18.31     0.00     0.22     0.05P   47.12R    5.05  
Braintree_Town     14    6  -16      -5.74    10.97    -4.81    32.60     8.24   -42.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.24R   68.17