Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 5 October 2018 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 1 October 2018, Bournemouth 2 1 Crystal_Palace; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          7   19  +18       1.58    71.51     2.46    89.88     7.45    70.17    63.20    85.53    94.60    98.33    99.92     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         7   19  +12       5.26    95.24     4.92    83.51     8.00    49.78    22.75    58.29    79.73    91.58    99.35     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           7   17  +10       2.86    79.80     2.63    75.44     8.32    35.26     4.63    18.41    40.67    65.97    94.61     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         7   15   +7       1.11    60.98    -0.11    77.52     8.13    40.10     7.26    26.14    52.64    74.89    96.80     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           7   15   +5       2.43    74.42     0.09    71.34     8.62    27.71     1.81     9.12    23.29    44.45    87.30     0.00     0.00  
Watford           7   13   +3       4.89    91.58     5.62    49.83     8.31    -8.38     0.00     0.02     0.12     0.52     6.76     2.32R    0.13  
Bournemouth       7   13   +0       3.80    85.47     1.02    48.38     8.38   -15.04     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.38     5.24     3.63R    0.25  
Leicester         7   12   +3       2.13    72.46     2.74    55.43     8.75     2.23     0.02     0.19     0.88     2.95    20.71     0.64R    0.04  
Wolverhampton     7   12   +2       4.03    87.39     4.79    49.72     8.72    -6.74     0.00     0.02     0.16     0.66     7.19     2.93R    0.23  
Man_Utd           7   10   -2      -2.72    22.10    -6.61    65.68     8.34    18.12     0.34     2.25     7.68    19.58    70.18     0.01R    0.00  
Everton           7    9   +0      -1.78    31.03    -1.59    47.61     8.44    -8.20     0.00     0.02     0.08     0.35     4.53     4.19R    0.30  
Burnley           7    7   -2      -2.32    26.41    -1.77    42.64     8.07   -13.50     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     1.18    11.37R    1.14  
Crystal_Palace    7    7   -3      -2.05    29.17    -2.06    42.21     8.09   -16.03     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     1.10    12.96R    1.42  
West_Ham          7    7   -4      -0.02    51.81     0.94    45.19     8.55   -13.45     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.16     2.63     8.39R    0.97  
Brighton          7    5   -5      -1.09    38.99     1.34    40.30     8.22   -16.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.62    19.21R    2.64  
Southampton       7    5   -5      -3.24    17.86    -2.74    40.91     8.16   -16.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.82    16.86R    2.26  
Fulham            7    5   -8      -1.52    34.09    -0.95    35.75     8.59   -31.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.30    40.29R    9.50  
Newcastle         7    2   -6      -5.17     4.97    -1.93    40.53     8.24   -12.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.74    17.80R    2.46  
Cardiff           7    2  -12      -3.77    11.03    -4.94    28.59     7.97   -40.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    73.87R   31.06  
Huddersfield      7    2  -13      -2.78    17.27    -3.83    25.76     7.18   -44.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.53R   47.59  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 3 October 2018, Blackburn 0 2 Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    11   22  +13       5.20    86.81    10.28    77.04     9.56    23.56    10.90    23.52    65.75    33.12P    0.04R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   11   22  +10       3.37    77.06     4.89    83.24     9.13    29.23    26.12    47.96    85.93    59.83P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       11   22   +7       5.56    88.12     4.96    74.42     9.61    13.61     6.66    15.63    53.78    23.66P    0.13R    0.01  
West_Brom       11   21  +11       0.78    55.65     2.85    84.53     9.90    35.47    34.87    54.50    87.00    64.76P    0.00R    0.00  
Norwich         11   18   +1       3.46    77.14     1.86    66.94     9.48     2.09     1.17     3.75    24.50     7.85P    1.08R    0.14  
Brentford       11   17   +6      -0.53    45.43     2.25    69.66     9.64    12.95     2.80     7.55    35.64    14.16P    0.61R    0.07  
Swansea         11   17   +4      -0.42    46.41     0.46    74.09     9.70    17.27     6.36    14.95    53.31    26.25P    0.16R    0.01  
Derby           11   17   +2      -1.36    38.49    -2.78    69.58     9.40     9.02     2.50     6.73    34.32    13.84P    0.40R    0.04  
Wigan           11   17   +2       0.19    51.68    -0.63    69.39     9.71     8.71     2.61     6.95    33.79    13.65P    0.68R    0.08  
Bristol_City    11   16   +3       0.65    55.82     2.66    66.93     9.64     7.30     1.28     4.10    25.59     8.70P    1.17R    0.14  
Nott'm_Forest   11   16   +2       1.89    66.76     3.55    59.62     9.34    -4.83     0.22     0.74     7.58     1.95P    5.74R    1.05  
Sheff_Wed       11   16   +0       0.70    56.45    -0.26    65.55     9.49     2.25     0.88     2.82    20.56     6.55P    1.63R    0.22  
Aston_Villa     11   15   +1      -2.80    27.35    -3.08    68.48     9.37     9.28     1.88     5.36    30.39    11.89P    0.58R    0.07  
Blackburn       11   15   -2       0.31    53.16    -1.35    60.84     9.71    -5.27     0.31     1.16    10.14     2.98P    5.29R    0.96  
Bolton          11   15   -4       4.13    83.63     2.41    50.40     8.67   -22.49     0.01     0.03     0.70     0.14P   27.85R    7.89  
Stoke           11   13   -2      -3.67    22.11    -4.26    66.14     9.96     5.80     1.35     3.94    23.67     9.07P    1.90R    0.31  
QPR             11   13  -10       0.97    59.71    -5.13    51.23     9.07   -25.60     0.01     0.04     1.00     0.19P   26.03R    7.70  
Birmingham      11   11   -1      -0.51    46.78     4.07    49.88     8.88   -13.69     0.01     0.03     0.76     0.15P   28.87R    8.89  
Rotherham       11   11   -8       0.33    54.92    -0.85    45.11     9.16   -30.09     0.00     0.01     0.23     0.05P   51.54R   23.49  
Reading         11    9   -2      -4.55    16.07     0.53    48.82     9.10   -15.01     0.01     0.03     0.63     0.13P   33.41R   11.23  
Hull            11    8   -8      -5.75    10.19    -5.78    52.33     9.43   -14.60     0.01     0.08     1.78     0.39P   21.77R    6.29  
Millwall        11    7   -7      -5.86     9.34    -3.80    51.79     9.25   -11.70     0.01     0.05     1.31     0.28P   22.77R    6.55  
Ipswich         11    6   -8      -7.37     4.43    -5.58    46.35     9.05   -19.43     0.00     0.01     0.27     0.07P   44.13R   17.56  
Preston         11    6  -10      -7.39     4.36    -7.28    51.64     9.50   -13.81     0.02     0.07     1.38     0.34P   24.24R    7.32  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 October 2018, AFC_Wimbledon 0 1 Bradford; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           11   27  +13       9.28    97.79     9.12    81.01     9.63    21.80    15.58    32.47    78.80    43.43P    0.03R    0.00  
Peterborough         11   24  +13       5.78    88.43     8.18    83.58     9.85    30.96    23.96    44.13    85.53    55.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Doncaster            11   21   +8       4.71    83.98     6.19    72.19     9.64    12.77     3.27     8.93    45.92    16.89P    0.48R    0.02  
Sunderland           11   20  +10      -0.15    47.94     2.21    83.17    10.03    33.24    23.76    43.32    84.31    56.92P    0.02R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   11   20   +3       5.62    87.82     3.90    64.47     9.88    -2.15     0.75     2.32    18.39     5.30P    4.37R    0.38  
Barnsley             10   19  +12       0.07    49.08     4.11    82.99    10.31    33.87    24.13    42.84    83.45    56.83P    0.06R    0.01  
Walsall              11   19   +2       4.11    80.98     2.24    65.03     9.53    -0.94     0.59     2.03    19.26     5.30P    3.43R    0.22  
Charlton             11   18   +2       1.81    64.66     0.46    70.67     9.72     8.84     2.35     6.76    39.67    14.40P    0.99R    0.05  
Scunthorpe           11   17   -3       0.73    56.51    -4.61    70.61     9.91     5.22     2.53     7.03    39.08    14.61P    1.24R    0.07  
Luton                11   16   +1       1.19    60.35     1.45    65.57    10.10     3.23     1.02     2.87    22.58     7.27P    3.74R    0.30  
Southend             11   16   -1       0.91    57.96    -0.94    63.49     9.69    -2.11     0.52     1.70    15.64     4.62P    5.17R    0.40  
Blackpool            10   15   +3       0.71    56.86     2.05    64.88     9.63     4.08     0.66     2.11    19.65     5.97P    3.48R    0.22  
Fleetwood_Town       11   14   +4      -1.68    36.29     3.15    64.00     9.59     6.99     0.46     1.79    17.76     5.57P    4.08R    0.28  
Coventry             11   12   -4      -0.51    47.05    -0.51    51.74     9.34   -14.84     0.01     0.05     1.52     0.36P   32.81R    6.26  
Rochdale             11   12   -8      -0.87    43.98    -4.27    56.58     9.65   -13.63     0.06     0.24     4.66     1.00P   18.25R    2.73  
Burton_Albion        10   11   -2      -2.70    28.11    -2.01    58.92    10.01    -3.86     0.19     0.71     8.25     2.51P   12.46R    1.72  
AFC_Wimbledon        11   11   -6      -1.51    38.07    -2.38    51.07     9.07   -16.93     0.01     0.02     0.99     0.20P   35.26R    7.01  
Bristol_Rovers       11   10   -2      -4.49    16.91    -1.09    53.78     9.38    -8.33     0.02     0.11     2.60     0.60P   24.74R    4.14  
Bradford             11   10   -7      -3.88    20.27    -5.43    54.49     9.45   -12.15     0.02     0.12     2.76     0.70P   23.47R    3.84  
Shrewsbury           11    9   -2      -6.23     8.61    -2.44    58.34     9.42     0.36     0.09     0.39     6.32     1.85P   12.07R    1.42  
Wycombe              11    9   -5      -2.78    28.58     0.03    45.71     9.53   -23.01     0.00     0.01     0.40     0.08P   58.45R   19.60  
Gillingham           10    8   -7      -3.61    20.87    -3.53    51.56     9.85   -16.32     0.01     0.04     1.89     0.42P   34.72R    7.98  
Oxford_Utd           11    5  -12      -7.87     3.50    -8.31    46.12     9.55   -23.34     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.06P   56.59R   18.72  
Plymouth             11    4  -12      -8.17     2.40    -7.58    44.21     9.30   -23.73     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   64.08R   24.63  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 October 2018, Cambridge_Utd 1 3 Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     11   25  +12       7.14    94.03     7.88    81.55     9.37    24.74    21.94    52.92    84.14    60.75P    0.00R    0.00  
Exeter           11   23  +10       4.66    84.08     5.08    81.13     9.60    25.35    21.86    51.17    82.49    59.31P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County   11   23   -1       8.29    96.24    -0.41    66.87     9.47    -7.21     1.34     6.83    28.00    10.22P    0.33R    0.03  
Colchester       11   19  +13       0.85    56.78     8.39    77.07     9.51    28.19    12.06    35.67    71.38    45.74P    0.01R    0.00  
Forest_Green     11   19   +8       4.60    83.74     9.04    64.50     9.46     4.22     0.86     4.72    21.57     7.67P    0.61R    0.09  
MK_Dons          11   18   +4       0.18    51.49    -0.04    78.45     9.81    22.30    14.56    40.57    74.68    51.25P    0.02R    0.01  
Stevenage        11   18   +2       1.81    65.35     0.37    64.75     9.33     0.56     0.76     4.78    21.51     8.08P    0.50R    0.09  
Oldham           11   17   +6      -1.58    36.69     0.77    75.46     9.88    21.42     9.33    29.43    64.69    40.36P    0.03R    0.00  
Bury             11   17   +4      -0.32    47.32     0.63    73.70    10.00    17.16     6.82    23.64    56.88    33.06P    0.06R    0.01  
Tranmere         11   17   +3       3.29    76.39     4.73    63.52     9.69     1.40     0.65     3.89    19.06     7.14P    0.91R    0.17  
Swindon          11   16   +1      -0.42    46.85    -1.04    69.22     9.71     8.83     2.62    11.52    38.79    18.10P    0.20R    0.03  
Crawley_Town     11   16   +0       2.16    68.20     1.88    61.36     9.39    -3.98     0.31     2.13    12.96     4.18P    1.46R    0.30  
Carlisle         11   16   -2       0.23    52.50    -3.02    65.16     9.55     0.03     0.91     5.14    23.10     9.06P    0.54R    0.09  
Mansfield        10   15   +7      -1.16    39.81     3.39    72.47     9.56    19.05     4.87    19.48    52.78    28.68P    0.06R    0.01  
Yeovil           11   15   +5       1.21    61.13     6.93    63.60     9.59     5.86     0.69     4.18    19.32     7.26P    0.86R    0.19  
Port_Vale        11   14   +0      -0.39    47.42     0.82    60.46     9.25    -1.76     0.20     1.74    11.08     3.66P    1.65R    0.33  
Crewe            10   11   +0      -2.37    30.01     0.52    57.08     9.66    -4.90     0.11     1.00     6.90     2.22P    4.02R    1.02  
Morecambe        11   10  -12      -1.61    37.15    -6.91    45.81     8.82   -29.91     0.00     0.01     0.34     0.07P   29.32R   10.39  
Cheltenham       11    9   -6      -4.77    15.01    -4.03    50.20     9.24   -16.26     0.01     0.10     1.28     0.33P   14.32R    4.35  
Notts_County     11    9  -11      -5.29    13.10    -9.56    54.64     9.58   -15.01     0.05     0.52     3.95     1.29P    7.35R    2.23  
Northampton      11    8   -9      -6.31     8.54    -7.91    53.68     9.87   -12.39     0.04     0.45     3.69     1.22P    9.09R    2.79  
Grimsby          11    8  -11      -3.38    22.25    -5.71    44.41     8.83   -27.65     0.00     0.02     0.24     0.06P   34.91R   12.89  
Cambridge_Utd    11    8  -12      -5.12    13.11    -9.08    50.22     9.30   -20.71     0.01     0.09     1.15     0.28P   15.34R    5.23  
Macclesfield     11    4  -11      -5.84     7.47    -2.70    34.25     8.84   -39.32     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   78.41R   59.74  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 September 2018, AFC_Fylde 3 0 Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Salford_City       14   30  +15       8.71    94.22    11.92    79.13     9.55    23.09    16.76    64.05    27.94P    0.06R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient      14   29  +17       4.99    82.42     9.96    84.21     8.79    34.18    34.11    84.19    49.32P    0.00R    0.00  
Harrogate_Town     14   29  +13       8.52    93.60    10.95    77.83     9.65    20.51    13.28    58.86    23.60P    0.16R    0.00  
Wrexham            14   28  +11       6.41    89.25     7.43    77.18     8.51    19.18     9.67    57.34    22.02P    0.05R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     14   28   +7       9.41    96.02     7.80    71.05     8.72     6.29     2.62    28.75     7.22P    0.54R    0.00  
Sutton_United      14   26   +4       5.63    85.43     2.21    73.52     8.76     9.71     4.48    39.10    12.20P    0.24R    0.01  
AFC_Fylde          14   25  +13       1.39    59.79     6.28    77.90     8.80    26.38    12.51    61.42    27.13P    0.05R    0.00  
Hartlepool         14   24   +2       3.65    75.44     0.21    66.58     8.59     0.73     0.91    14.34     3.79P    1.75R    0.01  
Gateshead          14   23   +5       1.93    64.02     2.14    70.03     8.79     9.97     2.28    26.20     7.84P    0.73R    0.00  
Halifax            14   20   +3       2.67    70.13     5.31    60.15     8.59    -1.54     0.12     4.26     0.92P    8.34R    0.15  
Eastleigh          14   20   -5       3.32    74.18    -1.49    60.90     8.61    -8.98     0.15     4.44     0.90P    7.91R    0.19  
Boreham_Wood       14   19   -1      -1.06    42.37    -2.49    63.87     8.61     1.09     0.39     8.75     2.28P    3.73R    0.05  
Barnet             14   19   -4      -3.13    27.99    -8.51    69.19     9.02     5.36     1.82    23.26     8.25P    1.15R    0.01  
Barrow             14   18   +1      -0.99    43.19     1.08    58.83     8.69    -2.94     0.09     3.26     0.71P   10.81R    0.27  
Ebbsfleet_United   14   18   +0      -1.03    42.85    -0.05    63.72     8.76     3.03     0.43     9.05     2.38P    3.98R    0.06  
Maidenhead         14   17   -2      -0.95    43.68    -0.10    56.64     8.78    -8.67     0.07     1.99     0.42P   17.29R    0.68  
Bromley            14   14   -5      -4.72    19.09    -4.29    57.69     8.94    -5.50     0.07     2.50     0.62P   14.83R    0.54  
Maidstone_United   14   14   -7      -1.53    39.61    -1.93    49.65     8.30   -18.46     0.00     0.19     0.03P   45.02R    3.33  
Aldershot          14   14  -10      -4.34    20.77    -9.05    56.72     8.65   -11.15     0.04     1.74     0.40P   16.92R    0.61  
Chesterfield       14   12   -6      -9.25     4.09    -9.17    60.38     9.23     0.91     0.19     5.64     1.88P    9.23R    0.27  
Havant_&_Wville    14   11  -10      -2.55    33.03    -0.64    42.02     9.00   -31.16     0.00     0.04     0.00P   76.92R   18.16  
Dag_&_Red          14    9   -9     -10.28     2.17    -9.29    50.97     8.83   -11.65     0.01     0.43     0.10P   37.79R    2.77  
Dover_Athletic     14    7  -16     -10.47     1.62   -13.55    49.37     8.81   -17.97     0.00     0.21     0.04P   46.12R    4.40  
Braintree_Town     14    6  -16      -5.74    10.82    -4.72    32.46     8.27   -42.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.39R   68.46