Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 4 October 2018 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 1 October 2018, Bournemouth 2 1 Crystal_Palace; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          7   19  +18       1.56    71.22     2.49    89.82     7.44    69.78    62.95    85.46    94.68    98.33    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         7   19  +12       5.27    95.44     4.94    83.54     8.08    49.72    22.87    58.32    79.58    91.60    99.33     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           7   17  +10       2.83    79.62     2.55    75.40     8.31    35.18     4.75    18.41    40.65    65.86    94.62     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         7   15   +7       1.12    61.31    -0.10    77.52     8.09    40.10     7.19    26.14    52.88    75.19    96.91     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           7   15   +5       2.48    75.09     0.16    71.19     8.67    27.51     1.86     9.09    22.99    43.87    86.68     0.00     0.00  
Watford           7   13   +3       4.93    91.89     5.67    49.78     8.27    -8.49     0.00     0.02     0.13     0.54     6.46     2.41R    0.14  
Bournemouth       7   13   +0       3.83    85.67     1.07    48.35     8.36   -15.03     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.42     5.05     3.68R    0.22  
Leicester         7   12   +3       2.11    72.21     2.72    55.53     8.80     2.41     0.02     0.19     0.86     3.12    21.05     0.61R    0.02  
Wolverhampton     7   12   +2       4.00    87.04     4.71    49.79     8.73    -6.49     0.00     0.04     0.23     0.83     7.52     2.88R    0.25  
Man_Utd           7   10   -2      -2.74    22.26    -6.65    65.73     8.27    18.20     0.36     2.31     7.79    19.61    70.33     0.01R    0.00  
Everton           7    9   +0      -1.82    30.44    -1.65    47.76     8.48    -7.89     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.35     4.85     4.22R    0.33  
Burnley           7    7   -2      -2.37    26.00    -1.86    42.86     8.09   -13.06     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     1.28    10.98R    1.17  
Crystal_Palace    7    7   -3      -2.02    29.54    -2.04    42.12     8.11   -16.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.13    13.21R    1.39  
West_Ham          7    7   -4       0.00    51.92     0.97    45.00     8.51   -13.72     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11     2.42     8.69R    0.93  
Brighton          7    5   -5      -1.08    39.10     1.32    40.20     8.19   -16.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.63    19.17R    2.72  
Southampton       7    5   -5      -3.22    18.25    -2.69    40.91     8.18   -16.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.78    17.04R    2.37  
Fulham            7    5   -8      -1.53    33.98    -0.99    35.93     8.60   -30.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.30    39.89R    9.12  
Newcastle         7    2   -6      -5.15     5.01    -1.87    40.49     8.17   -12.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.69    17.82R    2.46  
Cardiff           7    2  -12      -3.78    11.04    -4.94    28.50     7.92   -40.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    74.02R   31.26  
Huddersfield      7    2  -13      -2.76    17.21    -3.82    25.73     7.18   -44.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.40R   47.64  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 3 October 2018, Blackburn 0 2 Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    11   22  +13       5.22    86.85    10.37    76.76     9.52    23.16    10.66    22.95    64.56    32.59P    0.04R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   11   22  +10       3.43    77.15     4.98    82.90     9.16    28.80    25.28    46.48    85.19    58.39P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       11   22   +7       5.54    88.15     4.93    74.40     9.67    13.56     7.02    15.98    54.11    24.17P    0.13R    0.01  
West_Brom       11   21  +11       0.81    55.95     2.89    84.47     9.84    35.35    35.05    54.52    86.92    64.67P    0.01R    0.00  
Norwich         11   18   +1       3.45    77.14     1.85    66.88     9.51     2.08     1.24     3.77    24.10     7.65P    1.14R    0.14  
Brentford       11   17   +6      -0.56    45.18     2.21    69.90     9.64    13.36     3.09     8.10    36.32    14.95P    0.52R    0.07  
Swansea         11   17   +4      -0.34    47.13     0.56    73.89     9.65    17.02     6.08    14.72    52.64    25.78P    0.16R    0.02  
Derby           11   17   +2      -1.33    38.77    -2.73    69.49     9.40     8.87     2.35     6.52    33.86    13.43P    0.46R    0.05  
Wigan           11   17   +2       0.12    50.95    -0.72    69.72     9.76     9.13     2.86     7.61    34.97    14.57P    0.61R    0.08  
Bristol_City    11   16   +3       0.61    55.61     2.60    66.95     9.55     7.34     1.36     4.12    25.37     8.70P    1.12R    0.15  
Nott'm_Forest   11   16   +2       1.84    66.43     3.48    59.81     9.32    -4.57     0.20     0.70     7.79     1.90P    5.75R    1.00  
Sheff_Wed       11   16   +0       0.67    56.05    -0.29    65.74     9.43     2.52     0.95     3.01    20.89     6.78P    1.43R    0.19  
Aston_Villa     11   15   +1      -2.90    27.00    -3.26    68.74     9.45     9.68     2.10     5.90    31.61    12.63P    0.69R    0.08  
Blackburn       11   15   -2       0.34    53.72    -1.29    60.91     9.69    -5.15     0.39     1.21    10.14     2.98P    5.07R    0.92  
Bolton          11   15   -4       4.16    83.70     2.50    50.28     8.77   -22.73     0.01     0.04     0.73     0.11P   28.30R    8.22  
Stoke           11   13   -2      -3.63    22.34    -4.25    66.03     9.99     5.66     1.32     4.04    23.49     9.07P    1.85R    0.27  
QPR             11   13  -10       1.03    60.41    -5.05    51.12     9.13   -25.83     0.01     0.06     1.06     0.23P   26.44R    7.99  
Birmingham      11   11   -1      -0.47    47.25     4.14    49.72     8.79   -13.98     0.01     0.03     0.62     0.13P   29.08R    8.87  
Rotherham       11   11   -8       0.41    55.81    -0.73    45.02     9.01   -30.22     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P   52.25R   23.32  
Reading         11    9   -2      -4.52    16.20     0.59    48.78     9.12   -15.13     0.00     0.03     0.61     0.11P   33.42R   11.54  
Hull            11    8   -8      -5.81    10.31    -5.89    52.43     9.51   -14.40     0.01     0.08     1.81     0.41P   21.70R    6.33  
Millwall        11    7   -7      -5.89     9.15    -3.85    51.73     9.27   -11.78     0.01     0.07     1.26     0.28P   23.04R    6.75  
Ipswich         11    6   -8      -7.46     4.27    -5.71    46.57     9.04   -19.07     0.00     0.01     0.27     0.05P   42.97R   16.74  
Preston         11    6  -10      -7.42     4.25    -7.33    51.69     9.48   -13.68     0.02     0.05     1.47     0.38P   23.83R    7.26  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 October 2018, AFC_Wimbledon 0 1 Bradford; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           11   27  +13       9.26    97.86     9.09    81.12     9.62    21.97    15.85    32.54    79.20    43.22P    0.03R    0.00  
Peterborough         11   24  +13       5.86    88.71     8.30    83.42    10.03    30.69    23.85    43.75    84.75    54.44P    0.02R    0.00  
Doncaster            11   21   +8       4.73    84.28     6.24    72.08     9.61    12.55     3.22     8.76    45.43    16.85P    0.57R    0.02  
Sunderland           11   20  +10      -0.17    47.54     2.18    83.30     9.94    33.39    23.85    43.89    84.98    57.62P    0.03R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   11   20   +3       5.62    87.99     3.94    64.36     9.89    -2.39     0.66     2.20    18.25     5.19P    4.61R    0.35  
Barnsley             10   19  +12       0.07    49.28     4.14    82.92    10.32    33.76    24.22    42.63    83.07    56.29P    0.04R    0.00  
Walsall              11   19   +2       4.23    81.70     2.40    64.67     9.46    -1.38     0.59     2.04    18.02     5.24P    3.62R    0.25  
Charlton             11   18   +2       1.80    64.91     0.43    70.73     9.69     8.89     2.34     6.82    39.73    14.69P    0.97R    0.05  
Scunthorpe           11   17   -3       0.76    56.73    -4.63    70.73     9.94     5.40     2.46     7.24    39.61    14.96P    1.18R    0.08  
Luton                11   16   +1       1.19    60.25     1.43    65.64    10.12     3.32     0.91     2.85    22.64     7.15P    3.76R    0.37  
Southend             11   16   -1       0.91    58.17    -0.98    63.60     9.65    -1.90     0.46     1.58    16.06     4.50P    4.90R    0.41  
Blackpool            10   15   +3       0.64    56.04     1.98    64.95     9.67     4.19     0.61     2.11    20.04     6.16P    3.58R    0.26  
Fleetwood_Town       11   14   +4      -1.68    36.47     3.18    64.00     9.56     6.95     0.51     1.78    17.58     5.48P    4.04R    0.31  
Coventry             11   12   -4      -0.48    47.27    -0.46    51.75     9.45   -14.86     0.02     0.07     1.68     0.36P   32.99R    6.31  
Rochdale             11   12   -8      -0.87    43.94    -4.28    56.51     9.59   -13.74     0.06     0.26     4.49     1.04P   18.40R    2.84  
Burton_Albion        10   11   -2      -2.86    27.24    -2.23    59.44    10.15    -3.09     0.22     0.80     9.47     2.90P   11.88R    1.61  
AFC_Wimbledon        11   11   -6      -1.55    37.73    -2.41    51.15     9.11   -16.85     0.01     0.03     1.14     0.26P   35.24R    6.94  
Bristol_Rovers       11   10   -2      -4.46    17.31    -1.05    53.68     9.41    -8.53     0.02     0.09     2.47     0.57P   25.05R    4.32  
Bradford             11   10   -7      -3.80    20.66    -5.32    54.36     9.41   -12.25     0.02     0.12     2.72     0.70P   23.51R    3.81  
Shrewsbury           11    9   -2      -6.23     8.63    -2.42    58.26     9.24     0.25     0.10     0.35     5.92     1.79P   11.67R    1.32  
Wycombe              11    9   -5      -2.79    28.26     0.02    45.60     9.44   -23.10     0.00     0.01     0.37     0.06P   58.79R   19.97  
Gillingham           10    8   -7      -3.61    20.83    -3.51    51.44     9.76   -16.52     0.01     0.07     1.76     0.41P   34.83R    7.93  
Oxford_Utd           11    5  -12      -7.92     3.32    -8.42    46.41     9.55   -22.87     0.01     0.02     0.45     0.11P   55.41R   18.01  
Plymouth             11    4  -12      -8.20     2.37    -7.64    44.12     9.27   -23.87     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P   64.86R   24.83  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 October 2018, Cambridge_Utd 1 3 Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     11   25  +12       7.05    93.62     7.73    81.70     9.43    24.96    22.52    53.31    84.22    61.04P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           11   23  +10       4.57    83.63     4.96    81.43     9.63    25.76    22.63    52.38    83.16    60.34P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County   11   23   -1       8.36    96.42    -0.29    66.74     9.46    -7.39     1.34     6.77    27.28    10.04P    0.30R    0.05  
Colchester       11   19  +13       0.83    56.68     8.37    77.09     9.47    28.24    11.79    35.46    71.53    45.61P    0.01R    0.00  
Forest_Green     11   19   +8       4.61    83.56     9.06    64.31     9.44     3.96     0.79     4.52    21.00     7.44P    0.57R    0.09  
MK_Dons          11   18   +4       0.26    51.93     0.08    78.18     9.81    21.88    13.58    39.05    73.71    49.68P    0.01R    0.00  
Stevenage        11   18   +2       1.75    65.03     0.29    64.93     9.44     0.76     0.80     4.94    22.44     8.57P    0.47R    0.10  
Oldham           11   17   +6      -1.67    35.86     0.65    75.71     9.86    21.80     9.58    30.32    65.60    41.37P    0.03R    0.00  
Bury             11   17   +4      -0.21    48.38     0.78    73.40    10.05    16.73     6.30    22.99    55.83    32.16P    0.07R    0.01  
Tranmere         11   17   +3       3.31    76.53     4.76    63.52     9.77     1.39     0.82     4.17    19.02     7.17P    0.99R    0.20  
Swindon          11   16   +1      -0.42    46.88    -1.06    69.25     9.67     8.87     2.50    11.35    38.84    17.96P    0.19R    0.03  
Crawley_Town     11   16   +0       2.15    68.44     1.87    61.40     9.39    -3.87     0.33     2.25    13.12     4.34P    1.40R    0.28  
Carlisle         11   16   -2       0.37    53.35    -2.85    64.95     9.48    -0.26     0.84     4.92    22.32     8.79P    0.62R    0.12  
Mansfield        10   15   +7      -1.22    39.21     3.32    72.61     9.62    19.28     5.05    19.72    53.21    29.24P    0.06R    0.02  
Yeovil           11   15   +5       1.18    60.80     6.90    63.55     9.49     5.84     0.58     3.77    19.37     6.85P    0.85R    0.18  
Port_Vale        11   14   +0      -0.46    46.87     0.74    60.56     9.32    -1.63     0.28     1.92    11.46     3.89P    1.63R    0.34  
Crewe            10   11   +0      -2.38    30.16     0.53    57.04     9.71    -5.04     0.14     0.97     6.93     2.21P    4.34R    1.04  
Morecambe        11   10  -12      -1.65    36.93    -7.01    46.03     8.84   -29.55     0.00     0.01     0.34     0.06P   28.31R    9.71  
Cheltenham       11    9   -6      -4.76    15.20    -4.00    50.21     9.35   -16.25     0.02     0.11     1.45     0.37P   14.58R    4.52  
Notts_County     11    9  -11      -5.26    13.48    -9.53    54.61     9.62   -15.07     0.06     0.53     3.89     1.23P    7.48R    2.20  
Northampton      11    8   -9      -6.35     8.46    -7.97    53.71     9.89   -12.35     0.05     0.43     3.74     1.24P    8.92R    2.83  
Grimsby          11    8  -11      -3.43    22.12    -5.76    44.48     8.86   -27.55     0.00     0.01     0.21     0.05P   34.84R   12.66  
Cambridge_Utd    11    8  -12      -5.09    13.29    -9.01    50.10     9.29   -20.91     0.00     0.10     1.33     0.34P   15.54R    5.20  
Macclesfield     11    4  -11      -5.76     7.68    -2.53    34.14     8.80   -39.59     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   78.77R   60.44  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 September 2018, AFC_Fylde 3 0 Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Salford_City       14   30  +15       8.74    94.26    11.94    79.11     9.51    23.08    16.60    64.65    27.54P    0.06R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient      14   29  +17       5.03    82.78    10.01    84.22     8.76    34.18    34.13    84.08    49.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Harrogate_Town     14   29  +13       8.63    93.78    11.16    77.45     9.75    19.95    12.83    57.47    22.89P    0.17R    0.00  
Wrexham            14   28  +11       6.34    88.66     7.34    77.46     8.51    19.50    10.30    58.59    23.16P    0.05R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     14   28   +7       9.44    96.25     7.81    71.05     8.64     6.35     2.57    28.25     7.07P    0.44R    0.00  
Sutton_United      14   26   +4       5.72    85.70     2.35    73.35     8.90     9.44     4.49    38.59    11.86P    0.30R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          14   25  +13       1.40    60.00     6.32    77.77     8.83    26.20    12.25    60.97    26.78P    0.05R    0.00  
Hartlepool         14   24   +2       3.59    75.12     0.11    66.60     8.60     0.76     0.91    14.39     3.77P    1.73R    0.02  
Gateshead          14   23   +5       1.91    64.10     2.11    70.08     8.78    10.04     2.39    26.27     8.27P    0.68R    0.01  
Halifax            14   20   +3       2.66    70.24     5.32    60.21     8.54    -1.47     0.12     4.22     0.91P    8.17R    0.16  
Eastleigh          14   20   -5       3.32    74.14    -1.48    60.83     8.69    -9.11     0.17     4.47     0.98P    8.04R    0.21  
Boreham_Wood       14   19   -1      -1.03    42.52    -2.48    63.80     8.66     1.03     0.34     8.70     2.26P    4.00R    0.07  
Barnet             14   19   -4      -3.19    27.68    -8.61    69.33     9.06     5.47     1.94    24.02     8.65P    1.17R    0.01  
Barrow             14   18   +1      -1.03    43.01     1.03    58.92     8.72    -2.86     0.10     3.37     0.74P   10.96R    0.25  
Ebbsfleet_United   14   18   +0      -0.99    43.28    -0.00    63.78     8.79     3.09     0.43     9.38     2.56P    3.87R    0.05  
Maidenhead         14   17   -2      -1.00    43.61    -0.19    56.81     8.79    -8.42     0.07     2.09     0.44P   16.97R    0.57  
Bromley            14   14   -5      -4.77    18.85    -4.41    57.83     8.91    -5.26     0.08     2.71     0.68P   14.41R    0.55  
Maidstone_United   14   14   -7      -1.59    39.12    -1.99    49.62     8.41   -18.56     0.00     0.22     0.03P   45.49R    3.50  
Aldershot          14   14  -10      -4.33    20.66    -9.05    56.78     8.65   -11.03     0.04     1.69     0.40P   16.91R    0.62  
Chesterfield       14   12   -6      -9.03     4.54    -8.86    59.93     9.26     0.26     0.22     5.16     1.80P    9.95R    0.33  
Havant_&_Wville    14   11  -10      -2.51    32.98    -0.59    42.03     8.86   -31.11     0.00     0.06     0.01P   77.23R   18.23  
Dag_&_Red          14    9   -9     -10.30     2.10    -9.31    50.90     8.81   -11.75     0.00     0.43     0.09P   38.14R    2.82  
Dover_Athletic     14    7  -16     -10.59     1.46   -13.71    49.62     8.76   -17.62     0.00     0.22     0.06P   44.83R    4.14  
Braintree_Town     14    6  -16      -5.76    10.57    -4.82    32.55     8.21   -42.14     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.37R   68.47