Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 3 October 2018 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 1 October 2018, Bournemouth 2 1 Crystal_Palace; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          7   19  +18       1.54    71.06     2.36    90.03     7.42    70.33    63.30    85.84    94.95    98.48    99.93     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         7   19  +12       5.25    95.18     4.95    83.56     8.08    49.88    22.90    58.29    79.75    91.44    99.36     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           7   17  +10       2.88    79.95     2.64    75.24     8.34    34.92     4.28    17.61    39.45    64.91    94.52     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         7   15   +7       1.05    60.27    -0.20    77.80     8.09    40.62     7.44    26.77    53.99    76.25    97.13     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           7   15   +5       2.46    74.88     0.13    71.32     8.56    27.64     1.72     8.93    22.83    44.15    87.31     0.00R    0.00  
Watford           7   13   +3       4.96    92.05     5.73    49.78     8.37    -8.55     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.58     6.84     2.43R    0.17  
Bournemouth       7   13   +0       3.79    85.44     0.98    48.36     8.37   -15.01     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.36     5.12     3.71R    0.28  
Leicester         7   12   +3       2.13    72.31     2.75    55.38     8.82     2.16     0.02     0.17     0.86     2.92    20.81     0.67R    0.04  
Wolverhampton     7   12   +2       4.10    87.86     4.85    49.54     8.71    -7.00     0.00     0.03     0.17     0.72     7.16     3.08R    0.23  
Man_Utd           7   10   -2      -2.71    22.37    -6.58    65.55     8.28    17.92     0.33     2.31     7.68    19.43    69.60     0.01R    0.00  
Everton           7    9   +0      -1.82    30.57    -1.64    47.76     8.54    -7.96     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.42     4.87     4.38R    0.38  
Burnley           7    7   -2      -2.38    25.76    -1.86    42.79     8.06   -13.23     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     1.21    11.18R    1.15  
Crystal_Palace    7    7   -3      -2.03    29.46    -2.04    42.06     8.11   -16.27     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     1.05    13.44R    1.40  
West_Ham          7    7   -4      -0.06    51.05     0.87    45.14     8.49   -13.55     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.11     2.54     8.39R    0.99  
Brighton          7    5   -5      -1.12    38.56     1.26    40.54     8.19   -16.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.72    17.98R    2.47  
Southampton       7    5   -5      -3.23    17.92    -2.71    40.99     8.16   -16.42     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.76    16.58R    2.39  
Fulham            7    5   -8      -1.50    34.21    -0.90    35.83     8.58   -30.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.29    40.05R    9.20  
Newcastle         7    2   -6      -5.14     5.18    -1.86    40.44     8.28   -12.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.75    18.07R    2.46  
Cardiff           7    2  -12      -3.76    11.07    -4.88    28.37     7.90   -41.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    74.74R   31.70  
Huddersfield      7    2  -13      -2.78    17.09    -3.84    25.80     7.13   -44.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.27R   47.13  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 September 2018, Birmingham 2 2 Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       10   20  +11       1.30    60.83     3.02    84.86    10.16    35.45    38.50    56.88    86.57    66.10P    0.01R    0.00  
Leeds_United    10   19  +12       3.71    80.19     9.48    74.85     9.84    21.71     8.31    18.59    56.50    27.31P    0.15R    0.02  
Middlesbrough   10   19   +8       2.23    69.45     3.55    80.96     9.30    26.50    19.75    38.91    79.04    51.39P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       10   19   +5       4.17    82.62     3.35    71.26     9.87     9.16     4.16    10.44    40.40    16.68P    0.45R    0.05  
Norwich         10   17   +1       3.44    78.09     1.30    66.51     9.68     0.81     1.31     3.99    23.06     7.67P    1.56R    0.22  
Brentford       10   16   +6       0.30    52.71     2.88    71.73     9.82    15.65     4.81    11.77    43.79    19.61P    0.37R    0.05  
Swansea         10   16   +4      -0.17    48.35     0.30    74.02     9.94    16.81     7.28    16.25    52.55    26.80P    0.20R    0.02  
Wigan           10   16   +2       0.57    55.28    -0.63    69.93     9.96     8.96     3.43     8.60    36.11    15.35P    0.71R    0.10  
Derby           10   16   +2      -0.57    45.07    -2.21    70.79     9.66    10.35     3.63     9.28    39.00    16.87P    0.46R    0.03  
Bristol_City    10   15   +3       1.11    60.36     2.83    68.17     9.89     8.60     2.03     5.90    29.87    11.04P    1.18R    0.18  
Nott'm_Forest   10   15   +2       2.42    71.95     3.82    60.81     9.55    -3.64     0.32     1.08     9.63     2.65P    5.31R    1.02  
Sheff_Wed       10   15   +0       1.02    59.69    -0.36    65.82     9.64     2.05     1.24     3.49    21.15     7.30P    1.64R    0.25  
Blackburn       10   15   +0       1.48    63.52     0.39    63.96     9.94    -0.66     0.90     2.69    16.84     5.52P    3.22R    0.49  
Bolton          10   15   -2       4.66    87.14     3.21    51.42     8.93   -21.43     0.01     0.05     1.07     0.19P   25.31R    6.67  
Aston_Villa     10   14   +1      -1.98    32.99    -2.47    69.93     9.65    11.00     2.94     7.96    35.86    15.46P    0.61R    0.06  
Birmingham      10   10   -1      -0.68    44.99     3.30    49.09     8.97   -15.78     0.01     0.02     0.59     0.09P   33.60R   10.73  
Stoke           10   10   -4      -4.31    17.27    -4.78    64.36    10.36     3.58     1.24     3.54    19.16     7.90P    3.30R    0.62  
Rotherham       10   10   -8       0.54    57.06    -0.83    45.12     9.42   -31.40     0.00     0.01     0.28     0.05P   53.03R   24.90  
QPR             10   10  -11      -0.80    44.08    -6.24    48.38     9.28   -29.12     0.01     0.03     0.59     0.10P   38.74R   14.19  
Reading         10    9   -1      -3.07    24.44     1.76    51.59     9.49   -12.24     0.03     0.12     1.56     0.34P   25.08R    7.65  
Hull            10    8   -7      -4.62    14.84    -5.11    54.55     9.71   -12.40     0.06     0.25     3.13     0.80P   17.09R    4.46  
Ipswich         10    6   -6      -6.60     5.67    -4.37    48.52     9.22   -16.30     0.00     0.02     0.60     0.13P   36.11R   12.42  
Millwall        10    6   -7      -5.80     8.11    -4.24    51.70     9.44   -12.35     0.02     0.08     1.45     0.36P   24.32R    7.01  
Preston         10    5  -10      -7.44     3.31    -7.96    50.97     9.54   -15.30     0.02     0.08     1.20     0.27P   27.54R    8.85  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 September 2018, AFC_Wimbledon 2 1 Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           10   24  +12       8.02    96.58     8.63    79.53     9.83    21.06    10.94    25.19    73.46    36.48P    0.06R    0.00  
Peterborough         10   23  +13       6.00    90.81     7.85    83.79    10.13    30.73    22.81    42.66    84.99    53.75P    0.02R    0.00  
Doncaster            10   21   +9       5.97    90.91     7.06    74.36     9.92    14.84     4.49    12.01    54.04    21.49P    0.33R    0.02  
Sunderland           10   19  +10       0.39    52.26     2.42    84.38    10.36    34.67    25.56    46.23    85.84    59.46P    0.04R    0.00  
Barnsley              9   18  +12       0.83    56.31     4.66    85.02    10.46    36.68    28.48    48.58    86.83    61.48P    0.02R    0.00  
Charlton             10   18   +4       2.81    73.30     1.88    72.91     9.86    12.16     3.21     9.24    48.18    18.63P    0.63R    0.02  
Walsall              10   18   +2       4.42    83.74     2.21    65.20     9.84    -1.33     0.64     2.14    19.67     5.43P    3.78R    0.30  
Accrington_Stanley   10   17   +2       4.16    82.28     3.20    61.48    10.12    -5.42     0.35     1.17    12.20     3.16P    8.63R    0.89  
Blackpool            10   15   +3       0.67    56.51     2.04    64.57     9.66     3.65     0.41     1.70    18.32     5.30P    3.84R    0.32  
Scunthorpe           10   14   -5      -0.51    45.81    -6.07    67.87    10.02     1.54     1.19     3.78    28.43     9.69P    2.43R    0.19  
Fleetwood_Town       10   13   +4      -1.00    41.72     3.60    65.13     9.88     8.04     0.56     2.19    20.89     6.49P    3.62R    0.28  
Luton                10   13   +0      -0.13    49.68     0.91    63.85    10.50     2.07     0.57     1.91    18.45     5.68P    6.24R    0.61  
Southend             10   13   -2      -0.48    46.37    -1.63    61.13     9.87    -4.21     0.24     0.85    10.94     2.82P    8.57R    0.86  
Coventry             10   12   -3       0.42    55.23    -0.07    53.15     9.66   -13.98     0.01     0.08     2.39     0.56P   28.52R    5.04  
Burton_Albion         9   11   -1      -1.56    36.50    -1.34    61.13    10.39    -1.66     0.27     1.12    12.54     3.83P    9.46R    1.10  
AFC_Wimbledon        10   11   -5      -0.39    47.95    -1.65    52.88     9.46   -15.48     0.03     0.08     1.94     0.40P   29.34R    5.20  
Rochdale             10   11   -8      -0.46    47.34    -4.11    57.08     9.90   -13.59     0.05     0.31     5.30     1.20P   17.49R    2.81  
Bristol_Rovers       10    9   -2      -4.22    17.43    -1.17    54.04     9.69    -8.79     0.03     0.13     2.85     0.71P   24.87R    4.05  
Shrewsbury           10    8   -2      -5.92     8.76    -2.48    59.08     9.68     0.80     0.12     0.49     7.83     2.40P   10.94R    1.40  
Wycombe              10    8   -5      -2.72    28.05    -0.36    45.13     9.79   -24.73     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.10P   60.94R   22.23  
Gillingham           10    8   -7      -3.64    20.57    -3.54    51.73     9.80   -16.03     0.01     0.04     1.78     0.33P   34.04R    7.50  
Bradford             10    7   -8      -5.21    11.27    -5.90    52.42     9.66   -13.91     0.02     0.07     1.85     0.44P   30.71R    6.13  
Oxford_Utd           10    5  -11      -6.81     5.14    -7.78    47.99     9.79   -21.56     0.00     0.01     0.70     0.16P   48.92R   14.04  
Plymouth             10    3  -12      -8.29     1.73    -8.38    43.51     9.47   -25.56     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   66.55R   27.00  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 September 2018, Carlisle 0 1 Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     10   25  +13       8.39    97.39     8.72    83.69     9.74    26.89    29.35    60.20    87.12    67.02P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   10   22   -1       9.18    98.15     0.33    68.02     9.64    -5.93     1.74     8.53    30.75    12.01P    0.18R    0.02  
Exeter           10   20   +9       3.59    78.98     4.91    79.88     9.85    24.92    17.30    44.89    77.70    53.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Stevenage        10   18   +3       2.63    72.52     0.55    66.27     9.70     1.55     1.32     6.74    25.86    10.80P    0.32R    0.05  
Colchester       10   16  +11      -0.14    48.53     7.37    75.06     9.80    25.50     8.13    27.72    62.02    37.58P    0.03R    0.00  
Oldham           10   16   +6      -1.45    36.99     0.42    76.27    10.24    22.22    10.67    31.84    65.50    42.32P    0.03R    0.00  
Forest_Green     10   16   +6       3.24    77.08     7.47    61.43     9.61     0.08     0.33     2.37    13.06     4.30P    1.18R    0.22  
Bury             10   16   +4       0.11    50.83     0.70    74.58    10.43    17.97     8.14    26.38    58.62    35.23P    0.08R    0.01  
Swindon          10   16   +2       0.76    57.08    -0.31    71.51    10.03    11.20     4.26    16.63    46.22    23.85P    0.13R    0.03  
Crawley_Town     10   16   +2       3.19    76.69     3.34    63.75     9.73    -0.47     0.72     3.87    18.79     6.62P    0.80R    0.17  
Carlisle         10   16   -1       1.89    66.75    -1.60    67.73     9.69     2.71     1.63     8.41    30.73    13.52P    0.23R    0.05  
Yeovil           10   15   +7       1.93    67.21     7.94    65.25     9.72     8.25     0.95     5.51    23.69     9.19P    0.51R    0.09  
MK_Dons          10   15   +2      -0.91    42.17    -1.24    75.54    10.10    18.38     8.68    28.51    62.31    38.84P    0.03R    0.00  
Mansfield         9   14   +7      -0.76    42.93     3.45    73.00     9.91    19.33     5.68    20.88    53.16    29.82P    0.06R    0.02  
Port_Vale        10   14   +2       0.45    54.82     2.12    62.55     9.55     1.21     0.46     3.09    15.57     5.64P    0.91R    0.15  
Tranmere         10   14   +2       1.76    66.37     3.97    60.92     9.99    -1.16     0.43     2.49    12.96     4.62P    1.76R    0.40  
Morecambe        10    9  -12      -1.50    37.56    -7.25    45.80     8.93   -30.33     0.00     0.02     0.31     0.07P   25.71R    8.46  
Crewe             9    8   -1      -3.93    17.37    -0.35    54.52     9.97    -7.69     0.06     0.59     4.43     1.42P    6.41R    1.75  
Cheltenham       10    8   -6      -4.27    16.60    -3.84    51.37     9.50   -15.00     0.02     0.17     1.94     0.50P   10.81R    2.98  
Cambridge_Utd    10    8  -10      -4.03    17.82    -7.52    52.98     9.52   -16.60     0.03     0.26     2.47     0.71P    8.47R    2.44  
Northampton      10    7   -9      -6.08     8.15    -8.04    53.90    10.24   -12.92     0.07     0.59     4.16     1.42P    8.12R    2.35  
Notts_County     10    6  -13      -6.52     6.49   -10.98    52.42     9.79   -18.07     0.03     0.32     2.54     0.82P   10.00R    3.14  
Grimsby          10    5  -12      -5.25     9.47    -6.93    41.41     9.01   -31.10     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   45.35R   18.78  
Macclesfield     10    3  -11      -5.81     5.93    -3.26    33.30     8.85   -40.94     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    78.88R   58.87  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 September 2018, AFC_Fylde 3 0 Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Salford_City       14   30  +15       8.82    94.33    12.02    79.06     9.63    22.97    16.55    64.33    27.60P    0.09R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient      14   29  +17       5.01    82.78    10.02    84.36     8.76    34.32    34.62    84.49    50.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Harrogate_Town     14   29  +13       8.59    93.77    11.12    77.63     9.66    20.16    13.09    58.31    23.12P    0.13R    0.00  
Wrexham            14   28  +11       6.42    89.19     7.44    77.18     8.55    19.11     9.60    57.22    21.84P    0.05R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     14   28   +7       9.43    96.30     7.80    70.97     8.67     6.21     2.60    28.46     7.18P    0.42R    0.00  
Sutton_United      14   26   +4       5.65    85.70     2.25    73.44     8.86     9.64     4.64    39.12    12.51P    0.27R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          14   25  +13       1.39    60.03     6.30    77.79     8.87    26.26    12.31    60.93    27.01P    0.09R    0.00  
Hartlepool         14   24   +2       3.65    75.40     0.20    66.49     8.61     0.59     0.92    14.05     3.55P    1.99R    0.01  
Gateshead          14   23   +5       1.87    63.67     2.04    70.08     8.82    10.09     2.21    26.81     8.02P    0.67R    0.01  
Halifax            14   20   +3       2.59    69.62     5.19    60.28     8.55    -1.36     0.14     4.18     0.94P    7.85R    0.22  
Eastleigh          14   20   -5       3.28    73.98    -1.60    60.81     8.69    -9.13     0.17     4.47     0.90P    8.09R    0.17  
Boreham_Wood       14   19   -1      -1.05    42.45    -2.50    63.92     8.59     1.20     0.38     8.85     2.38P    3.62R    0.04  
Barnet             14   19   -4      -3.09    28.23    -8.42    69.03     9.07     5.10     1.78    22.87     8.06P    1.27R    0.01  
Barrow             14   18   +1      -1.03    42.91     1.06    59.00     8.78    -2.75     0.11     3.62     0.80P   10.85R    0.31  
Ebbsfleet_United   14   18   +0      -1.05    42.48    -0.06    63.79     8.76     3.10     0.44     9.41     2.62P    3.92R    0.07  
Maidenhead         14   17   -2      -0.92    43.95    -0.07    56.69     8.85    -8.51     0.08     2.16     0.42P   17.58R    0.66  
Bromley            14   14   -5      -4.76    19.02    -4.33    57.64     8.89    -5.59     0.07     2.52     0.64P   14.76R    0.62  
Maidstone_United   14   14   -7      -1.54    39.30    -1.91    49.65     8.30   -18.52     0.00     0.20     0.03P   45.29R    3.29  
Aldershot          14   14  -10      -4.33    20.97    -9.02    56.74     8.69   -11.12     0.03     1.73     0.41P   16.96R    0.71  
Chesterfield       14   12   -6      -9.21     4.22    -9.11    60.29     9.26     0.77     0.23     5.57     1.79P    9.56R    0.32  
Havant_&_Wville    14   11  -10      -2.67    31.81    -0.86    42.32     8.91   -30.66     0.00     0.03     0.01P   76.25R   16.99  
Dag_&_Red          14    9   -9     -10.34     2.01    -9.40    51.13     8.88   -11.43     0.01     0.45     0.10P   36.95R    2.85  
Dover_Athletic     14    7  -16     -10.40     1.72   -13.44    49.26     8.86   -18.16     0.00     0.22     0.05P   46.81R    4.59  
Braintree_Town     14    6  -16      -5.70    10.80    -4.71    32.50     8.14   -42.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.53R   69.13