Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 2 October 2018 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 1 October 2018, Bournemouth 2 1 Crystal_Palace; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          7   19  +18       1.56    71.14     2.39    89.97     7.47    70.27    63.40    85.78    94.65    98.35    99.93     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         7   19  +12       5.28    95.31     4.94    83.46     8.07    49.66    22.66    58.12    79.26    91.30    99.28     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           7   17  +10       2.82    79.54     2.59    75.40     8.28    35.18     4.52    18.25    40.50    65.60    94.68     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         7   15   +7       1.13    61.15    -0.08    77.59     8.14    40.20     7.33    26.22    53.11    75.28    96.97     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           7   15   +5       2.45    74.59     0.12    71.24     8.62    27.43     1.73     9.04    23.00    43.88    86.82     0.00R    0.00  
Watford           7   13   +3       4.91    91.64     5.66    49.74     8.35    -8.54     0.00     0.02     0.12     0.51     6.65     2.44R    0.15  
Bournemouth       7   13   +0       3.78    85.33     0.97    48.37     8.36   -15.07     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.44     5.06     3.79R    0.29  
Leicester         7   12   +3       2.11    72.11     2.75    55.40     8.74     2.24     0.01     0.16     0.85     2.86    20.29     0.59R    0.03  
Wolverhampton     7   12   +2       4.00    86.89     4.71    49.83     8.74    -6.52     0.01     0.03     0.20     0.76     7.47     2.90R    0.24  
Man_Utd           7   10   -2      -2.78    21.79    -6.68    65.88     8.28    18.42     0.33     2.34     8.08    20.36    71.10     0.01R    0.00  
Everton           7    9   +0      -1.80    30.83    -1.60    47.70     8.45    -8.07     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.33     4.66     4.33R    0.35  
Burnley           7    7   -2      -2.31    26.42    -1.77    42.72     8.00   -13.36     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     1.17    11.08R    1.12  
Crystal_Palace    7    7   -3      -1.99    29.55    -1.98    42.01     8.11   -16.27     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     1.03    13.51R    1.46  
West_Ham          7    7   -4       0.01    52.00     0.99    45.01     8.48   -13.73     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.12     2.34     8.61R    0.91  
Brighton          7    5   -5      -1.11    38.83     1.29    40.42     8.28   -16.65     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.73    18.61R    2.74  
Southampton       7    5   -5      -3.20    18.43    -2.71    40.92     8.25   -16.46     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.05     0.84    17.00R    2.38  
Fulham            7    5   -8      -1.55    33.87    -1.00    35.96     8.57   -30.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.30    39.02R    9.20  
Newcastle         7    2   -6      -5.14     5.12    -1.84    40.33     8.20   -12.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.67    18.34R    2.63  
Cardiff           7    2  -12      -3.76    11.15    -4.92    28.48     7.92   -40.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    74.46R   31.34  
Huddersfield      7    2  -13      -2.80    17.02    -3.84    25.76     7.19   -44.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.30R   47.17  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 September 2018, Birmingham 2 2 Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       10   20  +11       1.32    61.02     3.01    84.95    10.15    35.56    38.99    57.47    86.99    66.81P    0.01R    0.00  
Leeds_United    10   19  +12       3.70    80.17     9.48    74.69     9.83    21.49     8.17    18.12    55.96    26.87P    0.14R    0.02  
Middlesbrough   10   19   +8       2.29    69.87     3.64    80.80     9.28    26.23    19.47    38.26    78.81    50.69P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       10   19   +5       4.17    82.51     3.33    71.26     9.86     9.12     4.12    10.41    40.59    16.51P    0.45R    0.04  
Norwich         10   17   +1       3.46    77.97     1.30    66.67     9.69     1.12     1.37     4.19    23.79     8.03P    1.45R    0.20  
Brentford       10   16   +6       0.32    52.66     2.93    71.56     9.92    15.32     4.80    11.57    43.15    19.02P    0.48R    0.05  
Swansea         10   16   +4      -0.21    47.94     0.24    74.01     9.93    16.82     6.95    16.38    52.25    27.02P    0.23R    0.02  
Wigan           10   16   +2       0.57    55.11    -0.61    70.03     9.92     9.11     3.55     8.82    36.07    15.73P    0.66R    0.06  
Derby           10   16   +2      -0.53    44.99    -2.15    70.71     9.59    10.22     3.55     9.10    38.58    16.63P    0.37R    0.05  
Bristol_City    10   15   +3       1.16    60.58     2.90    67.99     9.91     8.31     2.06     5.91    29.46    11.03P    1.18R    0.14  
Nott'm_Forest   10   15   +2       2.42    72.06     3.80    60.89     9.61    -3.48     0.32     1.21    10.02     2.85P    5.28R    0.85  
Sheff_Wed       10   15   +0       0.93    58.66    -0.46    65.95     9.60     2.33     1.26     3.65    21.32     7.44P    1.60R    0.26  
Blackburn       10   15   +0       1.47    63.44     0.34    64.06    10.04    -0.54     1.04     2.90    17.49     6.09P    3.20R    0.54  
Bolton          10   15   -2       4.68    87.37     3.26    51.25     8.92   -21.76     0.01     0.04     1.08     0.16P   26.42R    7.29  
Aston_Villa     10   14   +1      -2.03    32.51    -2.52    70.00     9.54    11.05     3.08     8.09    35.95    15.47P    0.51R    0.06  
Birmingham      10   10   -1      -0.66    45.17     3.30    49.13     8.99   -15.77     0.00     0.03     0.65     0.12P   33.49R   10.85  
Stoke           10   10   -4      -4.35    16.79    -4.86    64.34    10.27     3.56     1.11     3.28    19.13     7.50P    3.38R    0.67  
Rotherham       10   10   -8       0.57    57.47    -0.82    45.14     9.40   -31.47     0.00     0.02     0.32     0.07P   53.07R   24.92  
QPR             10   10  -11      -0.88    43.24    -6.34    48.54     9.13   -28.84     0.00     0.02     0.55     0.08P   38.31R   13.47  
Reading         10    9   -1      -3.10    24.23     1.71    51.67     9.49   -12.04     0.04     0.10     1.55     0.34P   24.85R    7.48  
Hull            10    8   -7      -4.62    14.94    -5.09    54.65     9.67   -12.27     0.07     0.27     3.15     0.79P   16.78R    4.33  
Ipswich         10    6   -6      -6.56     5.80    -4.27    48.38     9.21   -16.51     0.01     0.02     0.54     0.12P   36.74R   12.88  
Millwall        10    6   -7      -5.82     8.05    -4.24    51.87     9.34   -12.11     0.02     0.07     1.36     0.31P   23.55R    6.91  
Preston         10    5  -10      -7.41     3.35    -7.92    50.87     9.54   -15.47     0.02     0.08     1.25     0.35P   27.83R    8.90  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 September 2018, AFC_Wimbledon 2 1 Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           10   24  +12       8.03    96.58     8.63    79.59     9.84    21.12    11.20    25.55    73.20    36.56P    0.07R    0.00  
Peterborough         10   23  +13       6.10    91.25     8.03    83.42    10.10    30.14    21.69    41.04    84.24    51.95P    0.01R    0.00  
Doncaster            10   21   +9       5.91    90.60     6.98    74.36     9.88    14.89     4.46    12.09    54.11    21.43P    0.34R    0.01  
Sunderland           10   19  +10       0.38    52.22     2.42    84.42    10.30    34.76    25.92    46.51    86.15    59.92P    0.03R    0.00  
Barnsley              9   18  +12       0.87    56.79     4.73    84.92    10.61    36.51    28.75    48.74    86.42    61.53P    0.04R    0.00  
Charlton             10   18   +4       2.76    73.15     1.80    73.06     9.92    12.37     3.41     9.79    48.52    19.42P    0.58R    0.03  
Walsall              10   18   +2       4.48    84.23     2.31    65.01     9.69    -1.59     0.53     1.96    19.08     5.04P    3.63R    0.25  
Accrington_Stanley   10   17   +2       4.18    82.33     3.23    61.59    10.15    -5.21     0.38     1.20    12.43     3.30P    8.41R    0.91  
Blackpool            10   15   +3       0.56    55.52     1.88    64.79     9.64     3.96     0.46     1.80    18.94     5.52P    3.56R    0.24  
Scunthorpe           10   14   -5      -0.39    47.05    -5.90    67.52    10.14     0.99     1.12     3.70    27.59     9.47P    2.77R    0.22  
Fleetwood_Town       10   13   +4      -1.02    41.62     3.55    65.19     9.91     8.14     0.62     2.22    21.05     6.67P    3.59R    0.33  
Luton                10   13   +0      -0.15    49.45     0.90    63.99    10.42     2.26     0.57     1.97    18.48     5.73P    5.90R    0.63  
Southend             10   13   -2      -0.53    46.16    -1.69    61.28     9.84    -4.04     0.25     0.92    11.18     2.99P    8.26R    0.83  
Coventry             10   12   -3       0.43    55.34    -0.04    53.10     9.72   -14.10     0.03     0.11     2.43     0.48P   28.90R    5.10  
Burton_Albion         9   11   -1      -1.63    35.88    -1.44    61.43    10.39    -1.23     0.33     1.28    12.91     4.14P    8.98R    0.97  
AFC_Wimbledon        10   11   -5      -0.45    47.11    -1.76    53.05     9.40   -15.12     0.02     0.06     1.97     0.42P   28.56R    4.97  
Rochdale             10   11   -8      -0.50    47.12    -4.20    57.15     9.96   -13.56     0.07     0.31     5.54     1.30P   17.60R    2.72  
Bristol_Rovers       10    9   -2      -4.25    17.20    -1.22    54.11     9.87    -8.67     0.05     0.16     3.27     0.82P   24.76R    4.36  
Shrewsbury           10    8   -2      -5.88     9.05    -2.40    58.93     9.73     0.56     0.10     0.42     7.45     2.26P   11.55R    1.39  
Wycombe              10    8   -5      -2.64    28.54    -0.24    45.02     9.84   -24.92     0.01     0.02     0.44     0.08P   61.01R   22.30  
Gillingham           10    8   -7      -3.67    20.33    -3.55    51.89     9.82   -15.83     0.01     0.07     1.82     0.40P   33.50R    7.10  
Bradford             10    7   -8      -5.19    11.21    -5.89    52.41     9.68   -13.89     0.01     0.06     1.92     0.40P   31.01R    6.06  
Oxford_Utd           10    5  -11      -6.80     5.23    -7.77    47.81     9.82   -21.76     0.00     0.01     0.75     0.15P   49.64R   14.38  
Plymouth             10    3  -12      -8.29     1.76    -8.35    43.37     9.47   -25.77     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P   67.31R   27.18  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 September 2018, Carlisle 0 1 Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     10   25  +13       8.33    97.28     8.62    83.77     9.67    27.04    29.14    60.25    87.35    67.08P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County   10   22   -1       9.16    98.19     0.28    68.08     9.58    -5.82     1.70     8.38    30.59    12.01P    0.23R    0.03  
Exeter           10   20   +9       3.53    78.44     4.82    79.92     9.95    24.94    17.36    44.96    77.52    53.63P    0.00R    0.00  
Stevenage        10   18   +3       2.73    73.12     0.73    65.86     9.66     0.89     1.25     6.17    24.61     9.84P    0.32R    0.05  
Colchester       10   16  +11      -0.19    47.89     7.29    75.30     9.82    25.89     8.55    28.34    62.93    38.08P    0.02R    0.00  
Oldham           10   16   +6      -1.38    37.38     0.55    76.08    10.18    21.96    10.32    31.26    64.80    41.55P    0.02R    0.00  
Forest_Green     10   16   +6       3.25    77.18     7.47    61.42     9.67     0.08     0.42     2.47    13.35     4.39P    1.16R    0.16  
Bury             10   16   +4       0.10    50.69     0.71    74.73    10.41    18.19     8.31    26.60    59.51    35.75P    0.06R    0.01  
Swindon          10   16   +2       0.82    57.47    -0.22    71.37     9.89    10.99     3.83    15.78    45.44    22.97P    0.11R    0.02  
Crawley_Town     10   16   +2       3.13    76.22     3.28    63.83     9.73    -0.36     0.71     4.12    18.76     6.88P    0.70R    0.14  
Carlisle         10   16   -1       1.88    66.59    -1.62    67.92     9.71     2.96     1.81     8.68    31.27    13.82P    0.24R    0.03  
Yeovil           10   15   +7       1.96    67.42     7.98    65.17     9.77     8.12     0.98     5.43    23.39     9.20P    0.52R    0.09  
MK_Dons          10   15   +2      -0.94    41.63    -1.30    75.64    10.05    18.56     8.47    28.79    62.83    39.24P    0.02R    0.00  
Mansfield         9   14   +7      -0.82    42.39     3.35    73.31     9.92    19.74     6.13    21.57    54.40    30.73P    0.04R    0.00  
Port_Vale        10   14   +2       0.52    55.61     2.19    62.54     9.51     1.24     0.43     2.99    15.31     5.61P    0.78R    0.13  
Tranmere         10   14   +2       1.73    66.22     3.92    60.90     9.91    -1.16     0.38     2.49    12.72     4.65P    1.66R    0.34  
Morecambe        10    9  -12      -1.50    37.49    -7.23    45.78     8.97   -30.35     0.00     0.02     0.31     0.07P   26.14R    8.57  
Crewe             9    8   -1      -3.92    17.24    -0.31    54.43     9.94    -7.84     0.06     0.54     4.26     1.30P    6.42R    1.71  
Cheltenham       10    8   -6      -4.16    16.94    -3.69    51.06     9.46   -15.55     0.01     0.12     1.64     0.46P   11.17R    3.21  
Cambridge_Utd    10    8  -10      -3.99    18.29    -7.48    52.93     9.55   -16.73     0.02     0.24     2.52     0.68P    8.53R    2.55  
Northampton      10    7   -9      -6.11     8.30    -8.05    54.03    10.21   -12.72     0.06     0.53     4.13     1.35P    7.88R    2.52  
Notts_County     10    6  -13      -6.51     6.52   -10.94    52.27     9.78   -18.32     0.03     0.24     2.30     0.68P   10.26R    3.18  
Grimsby          10    5  -12      -5.30     9.24    -6.98    41.34     8.92   -31.14     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.02P   45.66R   19.11  
Macclesfield     10    3  -11      -5.86     5.89    -3.37    33.55     8.93   -40.62     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   78.06R   58.13  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 September 2018, AFC_Fylde 3 0 Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Salford_City       14   30  +15       8.71    94.04    11.90    79.22     9.48    23.29    16.69    65.29    28.09P    0.07R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient      14   29  +17       5.05    82.87    10.03    84.32     8.74    34.25    34.57    84.54    49.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Harrogate_Town     14   29  +13       8.63    93.80    11.14    77.54     9.66    20.07    12.89    57.97    22.81P    0.18R    0.00  
Wrexham            14   28  +11       6.42    88.95     7.45    77.16     8.52    19.10     9.58    57.00    21.91P    0.03R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     14   28   +7       9.50    96.33     7.90    70.79     8.69     5.92     2.50    27.94     6.99P    0.54R    0.01  
Sutton_United      14   26   +4       5.71    85.72     2.33    73.36     8.82     9.46     4.46    38.51    12.05P    0.26R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          14   25  +13       1.41    60.17     6.37    77.85     8.85    26.28    12.51    61.37    27.30P    0.04R    0.00  
Hartlepool         14   24   +2       3.61    75.38     0.12    66.73     8.61     0.96     0.94    14.80     3.67P    1.69R    0.02  
Gateshead          14   23   +5       1.85    63.67     2.02    70.21     8.75    10.22     2.37    26.55     8.20P    0.67R    0.00  
Halifax            14   20   +3       2.63    70.00     5.25    60.28     8.46    -1.34     0.11     3.99     0.82P    7.99R    0.16  
Eastleigh          14   20   -5       3.30    74.25    -1.53    60.86     8.68    -9.08     0.15     4.76     0.95P    8.13R    0.21  
Boreham_Wood       14   19   -1      -1.08    42.32    -2.53    63.90     8.62     1.20     0.33     8.99     2.42P    3.57R    0.06  
Barnet             14   19   -4      -3.11    28.32    -8.48    69.14     9.08     5.29     1.98    23.50     8.57P    1.22R    0.02  
Barrow             14   18   +1      -1.05    42.57     1.04    58.83     8.66    -2.96     0.08     3.24     0.72P   11.02R    0.25  
Ebbsfleet_United   14   18   +0      -1.00    43.05    -0.01    63.66     8.80     2.94     0.46     9.23     2.48P    4.16R    0.06  
Maidenhead         14   17   -2      -0.87    44.26     0.03    56.52     8.77    -8.85     0.05     1.88     0.39P   18.02R    0.75  
Bromley            14   14   -5      -4.83    18.61    -4.46    57.83     8.97    -5.24     0.09     2.87     0.72P   14.38R    0.59  
Maidstone_United   14   14   -7      -1.54    39.47    -1.92    49.68     8.33   -18.46     0.00     0.19     0.03P   45.07R    3.46  
Aldershot          14   14  -10      -4.40    20.23    -9.12    56.80     8.65   -11.00     0.05     1.65     0.44P   16.87R    0.64  
Chesterfield       14   12   -6      -9.06     4.35    -8.91    59.98     9.16     0.32     0.17     5.08     1.59P    9.83R    0.27  
Havant_&_Wville    14   11  -10      -2.60    32.40    -0.74    42.27     8.89   -30.78     0.00     0.04     0.01P   76.46R   17.60  
Dag_&_Red          14    9   -9     -10.33     2.19    -9.39    51.02     8.79   -11.59     0.01     0.40     0.11P   37.54R    2.86  
Dover_Athletic     14    7  -16     -10.53     1.51   -13.60    49.40     8.75   -17.93     0.01     0.21     0.05P   45.98R    4.35  
Braintree_Town     14    6  -16      -5.79    10.60    -4.88    32.61     8.24   -42.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.27R   68.67