Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 1 October 2018 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 30 September 2018, Cardiff 1 2 Burnley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          7   19  +18       1.53    70.93     2.42    89.99     7.44    70.33    63.20    85.81    94.94    98.53    99.95     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         7   19  +12       5.24    95.09     4.91    83.69     8.05    50.02    23.28    59.20    80.23    91.79    99.42     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           7   17  +10       2.88    80.01     2.66    75.18     8.28    34.69     4.23    17.30    39.39    65.16    94.56     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         7   15   +7       1.11    60.96    -0.10    77.61     8.14    40.18     7.25    26.32    53.29    75.55    96.95     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           7   15   +5       2.50    75.34     0.19    71.23     8.64    27.49     1.72     8.95    23.10    44.03    87.21     0.00R    0.00  
Watford           7   13   +3       4.92    91.84     5.65    49.82     8.33    -8.35     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.55     6.76     2.29R    0.16  
Leicester         7   12   +3       2.10    72.09     2.72    55.41     8.73     2.21     0.02     0.15     0.90     2.99    20.67     0.66R    0.03  
Wolverhampton     7   12   +2       4.07    87.61     4.82    49.54     8.70    -6.97     0.01     0.03     0.19     0.75     7.24     3.06R    0.23  
Bournemouth       6   10   -1       2.44    77.54     0.41    46.75     8.65   -16.08     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.33     4.17     6.14R    0.54  
Man_Utd           7   10   -2      -2.73    22.35    -6.62    65.58     8.33    17.93     0.29     2.19     7.66    19.53    69.86     0.01R    0.00  
Everton           7    9   +0      -1.81    30.67    -1.65    47.91     8.50    -7.71     0.00     0.01     0.09     0.41     5.25     4.00R    0.34  
Burnley           7    7   -2      -2.30    26.46    -1.75    42.60     8.04   -13.52     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     1.12    11.50R    1.20  
Crystal_Palace    6    7   -2      -0.92    39.64    -1.44    43.50     8.35   -15.10     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11     1.84    10.53R    1.10  
West_Ham          7    7   -4      -0.02    51.74     0.93    44.98     8.51   -13.83     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.12     2.41     8.75R    0.92  
Brighton          7    5   -5      -1.10    38.78     1.29    40.50     8.23   -16.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.76    18.22R    2.52  
Southampton       7    5   -5      -3.25    17.87    -2.75    40.97     8.12   -16.31     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.73    16.76R    2.23  
Fulham            7    5   -8      -1.54    33.77    -1.03    36.06     8.56   -30.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.33    39.30R    8.82  
Newcastle         7    2   -6      -5.14     5.19    -1.86    40.36     8.22   -12.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.74    18.47R    2.41  
Cardiff           7    2  -12      -3.78    10.88    -4.95    28.41     7.97   -40.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    74.60R   31.97  
Huddersfield      7    2  -13      -2.77    17.14    -3.84    25.75     7.13   -44.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.71R   47.55  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 September 2018, Birmingham 2 2 Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

West_Brom       10   20  +11       1.28    60.80     3.01    84.77    10.11    35.25    38.10    56.49    86.60    65.71P    0.01R    0.00  
Leeds_United    10   19  +12       3.70    80.05     9.47    74.76     9.82    21.63     8.32    18.44    56.08    27.12P    0.18R    0.02  
Middlesbrough   10   19   +8       2.28    69.61     3.63    80.76     9.37    26.23    19.42    38.22    78.49    50.81P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       10   19   +5       4.10    82.24     3.25    71.49     9.83     9.51     4.41    10.70    41.50    17.05P    0.43R    0.04  
Norwich         10   17   +1       3.47    78.34     1.32    66.54     9.66     0.85     1.32     3.93    23.25     7.58P    1.40R    0.19  
Brentford       10   16   +6       0.39    53.64     3.03    71.36     9.86    15.06     4.49    11.09    42.29    18.40P    0.44R    0.05  
Swansea         10   16   +4      -0.32    46.95     0.11    74.40     9.95    17.36     7.58    17.37    53.93    28.21P    0.21R    0.03  
Wigan           10   16   +2       0.56    54.86    -0.64    69.93     9.98     8.94     3.53     8.71    35.64    15.40P    0.73R    0.09  
Derby           10   16   +2      -0.60    44.44    -2.22    70.81     9.63    10.39     3.74     9.38    38.91    17.02P    0.39R    0.04  
Bristol_City    10   15   +3       1.24    61.55     3.04    67.86     9.89     8.10     2.05     5.70    28.45    10.61P    1.27R    0.14  
Nott'm_Forest   10   15   +2       2.40    71.86     3.77    60.79     9.55    -3.59     0.36     1.20     9.80     2.78P    5.28R    0.94  
Sheff_Wed       10   15   +0       0.99    59.12    -0.39    65.84     9.68     2.13     1.24     3.57    21.45     7.40P    1.76R    0.26  
Blackburn       10   15   +0       1.36    62.48     0.14    64.36    10.09    -0.06     1.11     3.24    18.29     6.54P    3.05R    0.53  
Bolton          10   15   -2       4.61    87.07     3.11    51.43     8.91   -21.46     0.01     0.05     1.02     0.18P   25.53R    6.83  
Aston_Villa     10   14   +1      -2.02    32.70    -2.50    70.06     9.63    11.19     3.09     8.25    36.21    15.74P    0.58R    0.05  
Birmingham      10   10   -1      -0.66    45.26     3.36    49.06     9.02   -15.82     0.00     0.02     0.58     0.10P   33.58R   10.75  
Stoke           10   10   -4      -4.30    17.09    -4.77    64.30    10.23     3.55     1.09     3.10    18.80     7.23P    3.26R    0.66  
Rotherham       10   10   -8       0.56    57.18    -0.81    45.01     9.36   -31.59     0.01     0.03     0.29     0.06P   53.58R   25.15  
QPR             10   10  -11      -0.84    43.52    -6.30    48.55     9.19   -28.86     0.01     0.02     0.60     0.11P   38.10R   13.51  
Reading         10    9   -1      -3.09    24.52     1.73    51.67     9.47   -12.03     0.03     0.09     1.51     0.36P   24.51R    7.47  
Hull            10    8   -7      -4.59    15.06    -5.03    54.51     9.78   -12.52     0.08     0.23     3.14     0.83P   17.37R    4.61  
Ipswich         10    6   -6      -6.55     5.96    -4.32    48.46     9.28   -16.34     0.00     0.03     0.59     0.16P   36.17R   12.41  
Millwall        10    6   -7      -5.75     8.37    -4.16    51.77     9.42   -12.30     0.01     0.06     1.39     0.32P   23.87R    7.04  
Preston         10    5  -10      -7.36     3.29    -7.83    50.76     9.55   -15.60     0.01     0.05     1.17     0.29P   28.30R    9.18  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 September 2018, AFC_Wimbledon 2 1 Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           10   24  +12       8.04    96.58     8.67    79.58     9.94    21.12    11.22    25.79    73.68    36.78P    0.05R    0.00  
Peterborough         10   23  +13       5.98    90.56     7.82    83.89    10.20    30.87    22.86    42.84    85.12    53.87P    0.03R    0.00  
Doncaster            10   21   +9       5.95    90.71     7.03    74.37     9.95    14.86     4.60    12.10    54.30    21.27P    0.39R    0.02  
Sunderland           10   19  +10       0.35    51.82     2.35    84.33    10.36    34.63    25.60    45.60    85.87    59.05P    0.04R    0.00  
Barnsley              9   18  +12       0.86    56.79     4.70    84.83    10.59    36.37    27.86    48.23    86.40    61.08P    0.04R    0.00  
Charlton             10   18   +4       2.85    73.79     1.91    72.86     9.87    12.06     3.26     9.35    47.82    18.78P    0.56R    0.03  
Walsall              10   18   +2       4.51    84.26     2.33    64.83     9.71    -1.78     0.55     1.84    18.62     4.98P    3.79R    0.26  
Accrington_Stanley   10   17   +2       4.10    81.84     3.10    61.71    10.06    -5.11     0.33     1.17    12.33     3.33P    8.36R    0.90  
Blackpool            10   15   +3       0.61    56.02     1.95    64.70     9.65     3.79     0.52     1.88    18.74     5.76P    3.72R    0.27  
Scunthorpe           10   14   -5      -0.47    46.35    -5.98    67.64    10.09     1.18     1.19     3.78    27.96     9.47P    2.62R    0.21  
Fleetwood_Town       10   13   +4      -1.05    41.23     3.54    65.25     9.88     8.26     0.66     2.26    21.28     6.77P    3.57R    0.28  
Luton                10   13   +0      -0.03    50.70     1.06    63.56    10.32     1.65     0.55     1.82    17.31     5.35P    6.13R    0.62  
Southend             10   13   -2      -0.52    46.08    -1.69    61.30     9.88    -3.94     0.20     0.91    11.58     3.08P    8.34R    0.81  
Coventry             10   12   -3       0.40    55.15    -0.09    53.17     9.71   -13.98     0.02     0.11     2.58     0.57P   28.42R    5.09  
Burton_Albion         9   11   -1      -1.61    36.19    -1.42    61.31    10.37    -1.38     0.34     1.18    12.90     3.86P    9.03R    1.05  
AFC_Wimbledon        10   11   -5      -0.38    47.73    -1.63    52.90     9.36   -15.42     0.02     0.07     1.88     0.37P   29.17R    5.14  
Rochdale             10   11   -8      -0.50    47.14    -4.20    57.27     9.88   -13.37     0.05     0.28     5.52     1.22P   17.21R    2.56  
Bristol_Rovers       10    9   -2      -4.21    17.19    -1.19    54.32     9.76    -8.38     0.03     0.14     3.24     0.84P   23.98R    4.04  
Shrewsbury           10    8   -2      -5.94     8.60    -2.52    59.12     9.62     0.80     0.10     0.47     7.78     2.44P   10.92R    1.26  
Wycombe              10    8   -5      -2.79    27.05    -0.48    45.46     9.74   -24.18     0.00     0.01     0.44     0.07P   59.64R   20.67  
Gillingham           10    8   -7      -3.56    21.22    -3.39    51.63     9.80   -16.20     0.02     0.06     1.85     0.43P   34.47R    7.67  
Bradford             10    7   -8      -5.15    11.38    -5.82    52.29     9.70   -14.05     0.02     0.08     1.84     0.43P   31.53R    6.23  
Oxford_Utd           10    5  -11      -6.78     5.22    -7.75    47.83     9.80   -21.75     0.01     0.03     0.78     0.16P   49.89R   14.46  
Plymouth             10    3  -12      -8.25     1.78    -8.30    43.17     9.51   -26.06     0.00     0.01     0.17     0.04P   68.09R   28.44  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 September 2018, Carlisle 0 1 Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     10   25  +13       8.36    97.40     8.64    83.67     9.58    26.90    28.73    60.02    87.36    66.74P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   10   22   -1       9.14    98.08     0.28    68.11     9.69    -5.81     1.73     8.67    30.97    12.30P    0.17R    0.03  
Exeter           10   20   +9       3.47    78.05     4.72    80.22     9.87    25.42    18.49    46.38    78.32    55.04P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        10   18   +3       2.66    72.86     0.59    66.10     9.72     1.27     1.28     6.48    25.57    10.41P    0.38R    0.06  
Colchester       10   16  +11      -0.16    48.19     7.32    75.13     9.88    25.66     8.50    28.19    61.99    37.78P    0.03R    0.00  
Oldham           10   16   +6      -1.40    37.36     0.53    76.10    10.09    21.93    10.10    31.16    65.09    41.63P    0.02R    0.00  
Forest_Green     10   16   +6       3.26    77.42     7.49    61.27     9.55    -0.23     0.39     2.28    12.75     4.17P    1.20R    0.21  
Bury             10   16   +4       0.17    51.45     0.81    74.37    10.47    17.60     8.04    25.68    57.73    34.54P    0.05R    0.01  
Swindon          10   16   +2       0.72    56.35    -0.37    71.51     9.95    11.23     4.03    16.36    46.15    23.57P    0.08R    0.02  
Crawley_Town     10   16   +2       3.11    75.95     3.26    63.75     9.69    -0.40     0.65     3.82    18.41     6.51P    0.77R    0.15  
Carlisle         10   16   -1       1.90    66.89    -1.60    67.97     9.73     3.07     1.82     8.71    31.59    13.84P    0.25R    0.04  
Yeovil           10   15   +7       1.87    66.79     7.87    65.36     9.80     8.43     1.10     5.83    24.23     9.59P    0.50R    0.11  
MK_Dons          10   15   +2      -0.85    42.28    -1.17    75.19    10.08    17.87     8.05    27.34    60.99    37.64P    0.05R    0.01  
Mansfield         9   14   +7      -0.81    42.28     3.39    73.24     9.89    19.60     6.04    21.50    54.18    30.76P    0.05R    0.00  
Port_Vale        10   14   +2       0.43    54.61     2.10    62.78     9.47     1.59     0.44     3.09    15.67     5.79P    0.88R    0.14  
Tranmere         10   14   +2       1.78    66.16     4.00    61.04     9.96    -0.96     0.38     2.49    13.04     4.67P    1.59R    0.35  
Morecambe        10    9  -12      -1.48    37.71    -7.21    45.84     9.04   -30.27     0.00     0.03     0.40     0.10P   25.50R    8.52  
Crewe             9    8   -1      -3.99    16.86    -0.41    54.78    10.04    -7.30     0.11     0.66     4.66     1.52P    6.12R    1.65  
Cheltenham       10    8   -6      -4.18    16.97    -3.73    51.32     9.53   -15.10     0.03     0.20     1.76     0.52P   10.84R    3.04  
Cambridge_Utd    10    8  -10      -3.97    18.52    -7.45    52.91     9.66   -16.69     0.03     0.29     2.60     0.74P    8.74R    2.60  
Northampton      10    7   -9      -6.11     8.22    -8.09    53.99    10.22   -12.75     0.06     0.59     4.21     1.47P    8.02R    2.52  
Notts_County     10    6  -13      -6.39     6.76   -10.77    52.04     9.73   -18.71     0.02     0.24     2.26     0.67P   10.29R    3.19  
Grimsby          10    5  -12      -5.22     9.46    -6.88    41.06     8.95   -31.53     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   46.65R   19.41  
Macclesfield     10    3  -11      -5.82     6.17    -3.32    33.43     9.02   -40.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   77.83R   57.96  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 September 2018, AFC_Fylde 3 0 Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Salford_City       14   30  +15       8.76    94.39    11.96    79.01     9.49    23.00    16.32    64.39    27.51P    0.06R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient      14   29  +17       5.02    82.78    10.00    84.29     8.72    34.28    34.63    84.56    49.80P    0.01R    0.00  
Harrogate_Town     14   29  +13       8.59    93.66    11.08    77.58     9.75    20.16    13.43    58.07    23.24P    0.14R    0.00  
Wrexham            14   28  +11       6.44    89.17     7.49    77.19     8.47    19.14     9.42    57.41    22.10P    0.04R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     14   28   +7       9.47    96.20     7.84    70.95     8.64     6.16     2.57    27.97     7.03P    0.51R    0.00  
Sutton_United      14   26   +4       5.72    85.63     2.33    73.42     8.89     9.55     4.67    38.96    12.27P    0.30R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          14   25  +13       1.40    60.01     6.33    77.80     8.84    26.27    12.16    61.24    26.76P    0.06R    0.00  
Hartlepool         14   24   +2       3.57    74.78     0.06    66.73     8.60     0.94     0.89    14.97     3.78P    1.73R    0.02  
Gateshead          14   23   +5       1.97    64.49     2.19    69.98     8.78     9.89     2.31    25.98     7.86P    0.67R    0.00  
Halifax            14   20   +3       2.61    70.03     5.23    60.22     8.50    -1.46     0.12     4.09     0.85P    7.94R    0.16  
Eastleigh          14   20   -5       3.19    73.53    -1.67    60.99     8.65    -8.90     0.18     4.55     1.01P    7.82R    0.21  
Boreham_Wood       14   19   -1      -1.07    42.43    -2.53    63.86     8.66     1.13     0.41     9.07     2.59P    3.71R    0.05  
Barnet             14   19   -4      -3.11    28.06    -8.48    69.21     9.04     5.34     1.96    23.42     8.39P    1.16R    0.01  
Barrow             14   18   +1      -1.05    42.71     1.01    58.91     8.72    -2.87     0.09     3.34     0.81P   11.06R    0.27  
Ebbsfleet_United   14   18   +0      -1.00    42.82    -0.03    63.72     8.81     3.03     0.42     9.34     2.46P    3.98R    0.08  
Maidenhead         14   17   -2      -0.97    43.44    -0.16    56.73     8.83    -8.45     0.08     2.11     0.50P   17.02R    0.69  
Bromley            14   14   -5      -4.72    18.99    -4.28    57.53     8.97    -5.76     0.08     2.64     0.71P   15.29R    0.70  
Maidstone_United   14   14   -7      -1.49    39.90    -1.85    49.63     8.35   -18.48     0.00     0.20     0.02P   45.56R    3.46  
Aldershot          14   14  -10      -4.48    19.92    -9.23    56.91     8.67   -10.89     0.06     1.90     0.46P   16.44R    0.66  
Chesterfield       14   12   -6      -9.10     4.34    -8.94    60.14     9.18     0.55     0.18     5.10     1.66P    9.46R    0.32  
Havant_&_Wville    14   11  -10      -2.49    33.18    -0.55    42.00     8.85   -31.20     0.00     0.04     0.01P   77.09R   18.25  
Dag_&_Red          14    9   -9     -10.30     2.14    -9.34    51.05     8.78   -11.57     0.01     0.44     0.13P   37.62R    2.82  
Dover_Athletic     14    7  -16     -10.45     1.66   -13.50    49.31     8.82   -18.07     0.00     0.23     0.06P   46.26R    4.62  
Braintree_Town     14    6  -16      -5.86    10.29    -4.96    32.76     8.29   -41.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.06R   67.67