Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 30 September 2018 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 23 September 2018, Arsenal 2 0 Everton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         6   18  +12       5.50    97.13     4.69    83.81     8.33    49.77    23.38    57.92    78.28    90.36    99.30     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          6   16  +16       1.12    66.19     2.66    90.10     7.55    72.51    62.13    84.86    94.11    98.05    99.95     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           6   16  +10       3.24    86.06     2.60    76.11     8.55    35.82     5.42    20.06    42.69    66.09    95.37     0.00     0.00  
Watford           6   13   +5       5.58    95.35     6.35    50.98     8.56    -7.29     0.01     0.04     0.23     0.74     8.88     2.10R    0.16  
Tottenham         6   12   +5       0.47    54.03    -0.49    77.22     8.41    40.50     6.69    24.25    49.57    71.95    96.56     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           6   12   +3       1.68    68.44    -0.42    70.68     8.90    27.47     1.54     8.16    20.69    39.79    85.81     0.00R    0.00  
Man_Utd           6   10   +0      -1.24    34.68    -4.48    68.73     8.54    22.72     0.81     4.60    13.77    30.30    81.76     0.01R    0.00  
Bournemouth       6   10   -1       2.38    76.67     0.36    46.36     8.65   -17.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.26     3.56     6.85R    0.70  
Leicester         6    9   +1       0.65    57.63     1.07    52.64     9.04    -2.01     0.01     0.08     0.44     1.52    13.17     1.78R    0.13  
Wolverhampton     6    9   +0       2.82    81.36     3.49    46.57     8.92   -11.35     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.33     4.02     6.96R    0.85  
Crystal_Palace    6    7   -2      -0.83    41.14    -1.28    43.64     8.50   -15.12     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.11     1.95    10.98R    1.32  
Everton           6    6   -3      -2.75    20.28    -3.52    45.47     8.78   -12.32     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.21     3.02     8.23R    1.05  
Brighton          6    5   -3      -0.69    43.48     1.19    40.65     8.35   -17.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.82    19.00R    3.12  
Southampton       6    5   -3      -2.34    24.59    -1.41    42.88     8.56   -13.62     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.08     1.60    12.98R    1.90  
Fulham            6    5   -5      -0.87    40.67     0.67    38.25     9.09   -26.11     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.76    30.93R    7.30  
Burnley           6    4   -3      -3.71    12.88    -2.43    40.89     8.32   -14.73     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.74    17.76R    2.73  
West_Ham          6    4   -6      -1.87    28.85    -1.36    41.26     8.66   -19.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.04    18.72R    3.20  
Newcastle         6    2   -4      -3.88     9.63    -0.01    42.95     8.59    -9.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.65    12.62R    1.79  
Cardiff           6    2  -11      -2.64    18.38    -4.23    30.20     8.25   -38.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    67.17R   26.98  
Huddersfield      6    2  -11      -2.34    20.48    -3.45    26.24     7.36   -44.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    83.91R   48.76  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 September 2018, Aston_Villa 1 2 Sheff_Wed; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United     9   18  +12       3.95    83.28     9.34    74.92    10.14    21.27     9.02    19.09    55.38    27.26P    0.17R    0.01  
Middlesbrough    9   18   +8       2.76    74.89     3.79    81.29     9.58    26.41    21.57    39.61    78.61    51.64P    0.01R    0.00  
West_Brom        9   17  +10       0.04    49.35     2.68    83.07    10.48    33.88    31.06    48.58    81.76    59.18P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        9   16   +4       2.59    73.06     2.45    68.82    10.04     6.98     2.75     6.84    31.06    11.84P    1.05R    0.12  
Wigan            9   16   +3       1.67    64.95    -0.02    72.09    10.30    11.11     5.59    12.58    43.09    20.34P    0.49R    0.05  
Derby            9   16   +3       0.87    57.83    -1.10    73.30     9.87    13.07     6.15    14.13    48.20    22.98P    0.26R    0.04  
Brentford        9   15   +6       1.25    62.07     3.79    73.42    10.03    17.70     6.93    15.20    49.24    23.47P    0.31R    0.04  
Bristol_City     9   14   +3       1.63    65.74     3.03    68.61    10.15     8.68     2.60     6.85    30.57    11.93P    1.17R    0.17  
Nott'm_Forest    9   14   +2       2.48    73.59     3.30    60.57     9.62    -4.29     0.35     1.10     9.00     2.47P    5.60R    0.94  
Sheff_Wed        9   14   +0       1.55    64.92    -0.10    66.40     9.95     2.36     1.58     4.41    22.84     8.19P    1.77R    0.26  
Norwich          9   14   +0       2.06    69.28     0.65    64.46     9.84    -0.91     0.94     2.74    17.28     5.46P    2.62R    0.40  
Blackburn        9   14   +0       2.05    69.30     0.63    65.46    10.38     1.21     1.63     4.18    21.35     7.88P    2.57R    0.41  
Aston_Villa      9   13   +1      -1.80    33.55    -2.76    70.42     9.82    11.12     3.42     8.69    37.18    16.26P    0.59R    0.08  
Swansea          9   13   +1      -0.65    44.06    -1.05    71.51    10.09    12.63     4.75    11.05    41.38    19.64P    0.50R    0.07  
Bolton           9   12   -3       2.91    78.33     2.08    48.63     9.14   -24.38     0.01     0.04     0.63     0.12P   36.69R   12.20  
QPR              9   10   -8      -0.39    47.38    -4.81    49.87     9.36   -25.69     0.02     0.07     0.85     0.17P   32.73R   10.57  
Birmingham       9    9   -1      -0.22    49.52     3.35    49.21     9.11   -15.83     0.00     0.03     0.65     0.15P   33.15R   10.48  
Stoke            9    9   -4      -3.73    19.10    -4.50    65.30    10.45     4.46     1.42     4.05    21.48     8.55P    2.91R    0.54  
Rotherham        9    9   -8       0.84    60.46    -1.01    44.75     9.52   -32.19     0.01     0.01     0.24     0.05P   54.56R   25.94  
Reading          9    8   -1      -3.16    22.77     0.92    50.86     9.61   -13.90     0.02     0.11     1.30     0.33P   27.68R    8.82  
Hull             9    7   -7      -4.38    14.62    -5.24    54.70     9.92   -12.70     0.09     0.31     3.28     0.88P   17.05R    4.58  
Millwall         9    6   -6      -4.49    13.19    -3.39    53.64     9.59   -10.30     0.03     0.15     2.35     0.63P   18.60R    5.05  
Ipswich          9    5   -6      -6.29     5.52    -4.44    48.66     9.43   -16.25     0.01     0.04     0.66     0.16P   35.81R   12.33  
Preston          9    5   -9      -6.41     4.78    -7.58    52.12     9.64   -14.43     0.03     0.11     1.62     0.40P   23.68R    6.89  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 September 2018, Accrington_Stanley 2 1 AFC_Wimbledon; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Peterborough          9   22  +13       6.63    94.19     8.28    84.57    10.50    31.30    26.26    46.63    85.61    56.62P    0.03R    0.00  
Portsmouth            9   21  +10       6.96    95.09     7.49    77.07     9.99    17.76     7.39    18.88    64.09    29.32P    0.16R    0.00  
Sunderland            9   18  +10       1.15    59.36     2.99    86.16    10.65    36.90    32.83    53.94    88.51    65.65P    0.02R    0.00  
Doncaster             9   18   +8       4.75    86.82     6.66    72.59    10.09    13.70     3.49     9.83    46.74    18.20P    0.72R    0.05  
Walsall               9   18   +3       5.76    91.15     3.16    67.24    10.15     0.64     1.10     3.77    26.31     7.93P    2.96R    0.20  
Charlton              9   17   +4       3.34    78.76     2.08    73.63    10.06    12.66     3.87    11.19    50.64    20.92P    0.55R    0.03  
Barnsley              8   15  +10      -0.00    48.69     3.90    81.87    10.95    32.15    19.74    37.77    78.76    51.39P    0.09R    0.00  
Blackpool             9   14   +3       0.76    57.43     1.57    64.27     9.80     2.80     0.55     1.91    17.74     5.48P    4.39R    0.33  
Accrington_Stanley    9   14   +1       2.56    73.02     2.29    59.09    10.42    -7.67     0.22     0.88     9.12     2.50P   13.94R    1.91  
Fleetwood_Town        9   13   +6      -0.15    49.03     4.83    67.12    10.09    11.02     1.19     3.81    27.56     9.54P    2.72R    0.24  
Scunthorpe            9   13   -5      -0.05    49.98    -5.93    68.26    10.41     1.56     1.53     4.68    30.55    10.90P    2.69R    0.26  
Luton                 9   12   +0       0.21    52.89     0.85    63.81    10.62     1.60     0.65     2.27    18.58     5.98P    6.40R    0.69  
Coventry              9   11   -3       0.40    55.33    -0.69    52.35     9.82   -15.82     0.02     0.10     2.24     0.53P   32.28R    6.41  
Rochdale              9   11   -6       0.33    54.90    -3.12    59.60    10.15    -9.65     0.18     0.69     9.07     2.29P   12.58R    1.78  
Burton_Albion         8   10   -1      -1.32    37.73    -1.51    61.95    10.76    -1.17     0.56     1.78    15.01     4.87P    9.01R    1.23  
Southend              9   10   -3      -1.85    33.92    -2.25    59.78    10.03    -4.72     0.18     0.77     9.17     2.61P   11.38R    1.46  
Bristol_Rovers        9    8   -2      -3.86    18.23    -1.18    54.26    10.04    -9.12     0.04     0.20     3.67     0.86P   25.22R    4.61  
Wycombe               9    8   -4      -1.71    35.49    -0.04    46.79    10.05   -23.01     0.01     0.04     0.69     0.15P   54.42R   18.66  
AFC_Wimbledon         9    8   -6      -1.91    33.06    -2.49    50.59     9.49   -17.23     0.01     0.03     1.13     0.24P   38.60R    8.80  
Shrewsbury            9    7   -2      -5.38     9.51    -2.25    59.76     9.83     1.32     0.16     0.61     8.89     2.67P   10.47R    1.29  
Gillingham            9    7   -7      -3.47    20.28    -3.85    51.56     9.92   -16.66     0.02     0.06     1.95     0.44P   35.14R    8.39  
Bradford              9    6   -8      -4.80    11.75    -5.86    52.94     9.96   -13.77     0.02     0.09     2.35     0.52P   30.19R    6.36  
Oxford_Utd            9    5  -10      -5.61     8.22    -7.05    49.77    10.13   -19.70     0.00     0.07     1.32     0.31P   42.42R   12.04  
Plymouth              9    3  -11      -7.22     2.67    -7.89    44.45     9.71   -24.87     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.06P   63.62R   25.26  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 September 2018, Yeovil 1 1 MK_Dons; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City      9   22  +11       7.21    95.93     7.35    81.72    10.03    24.36    22.35    51.65    82.15    59.31P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter            9   19   +9       3.99    82.60     4.94    80.43    10.16    25.22    19.48    47.04    78.58    55.44P    0.01R    0.00  
Newport_County    9   19   -3       7.96    97.22    -1.10    65.33     9.84    -9.23     1.06     5.48    22.89     8.35P    0.54R    0.09  
Colchester        9   16  +12       1.29    61.72     8.47    77.38     9.98    27.95    12.72    36.13    70.54    45.86P    0.02R    0.00  
Carlisle          9   16   +0       3.23    77.87    -0.65    70.48    10.08     5.70     3.29    14.07    41.88    20.39P    0.17R    0.04  
Yeovil            9   15   +9       2.84    75.04     9.26    67.36    10.03    11.44     1.92     8.95    31.67    13.76P    0.30R    0.05  
Oldham            9   15   +6      -1.00    40.20     0.52    76.53    10.55    22.10    11.68    33.25    65.94    43.21P    0.02R    0.00  
Forest_Green      9   15   +6       3.79    81.89     7.73    62.31     9.86     0.81     0.56     3.29    15.96     5.61P    1.09R    0.20  
Swindon           9   15   +2       1.05    59.75    -0.49    71.66    10.25    10.82     4.60    17.55    47.13    24.82P    0.10R    0.01  
Stevenage         9   15   +2       1.07    59.81    -0.34    63.34     9.97    -1.49     0.86     4.25    18.34     7.07P    0.83R    0.15  
MK_Dons           9   14   +2      -0.18    48.30    -0.74    76.77    10.36    19.64    10.86    33.00    66.96    43.41P    0.02R    0.00  
Bury              9   13   +3      -1.42    36.76    -0.11    72.00    10.65    15.40     5.46    19.59    49.32    28.02P    0.19R    0.04  
Port_Vale         9   13   +2       0.72    57.41     2.00    63.03     9.75     1.35     0.67     3.59    17.25     6.54P    0.85R    0.15  
Tranmere          9   13   +2       1.85    67.61     3.58    60.44    10.24    -2.29     0.46     2.54    12.68     4.56P    2.22R    0.52  
Crawley_Town      9   13   +0       1.84    67.90     1.77    60.74     9.86    -4.43     0.36     2.31    12.37     4.22P    1.67R    0.34  
Mansfield         8   11   +3      -1.50    35.39     0.74    69.82    10.19    13.02     3.14    13.36    40.74    20.63P    0.19R    0.03  
Crewe             8    8   +0      -2.76    24.50     0.32    56.18    10.27    -6.24     0.16     1.07     6.68     2.28P    5.16R    1.23  
Cheltenham        9    8   -4      -3.21    22.52    -2.28    53.04     9.82   -12.59     0.04     0.36     3.02     0.87P    8.61R    2.32  
Cambridge_Utd     9    8   -8      -3.04    23.85    -6.15    55.20     9.84   -13.04     0.07     0.60     4.59     1.41P    5.96R    1.70  
Northampton       9    7   -5      -5.76     8.61    -5.61    57.72    10.65    -5.07     0.24     1.73     9.20     3.65P    4.40R    1.26  
Morecambe         9    6  -13      -3.10    22.08    -8.18    43.53     9.22   -32.13     0.00     0.01     0.20     0.05P   36.24R   13.63  
Grimsby           9    5  -11      -4.02    14.88    -6.21    43.28     9.21   -29.06     0.00     0.01     0.17     0.03P   36.80R   13.67  
Notts_County      9    3  -14      -7.66     2.25   -11.20    50.19    10.00   -20.14     0.02     0.17     1.71     0.52P   15.35R    5.03  
Macclesfield      9    2  -11      -5.72     4.95    -3.62    33.07     9.21   -42.10     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   79.26R   59.55  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 September 2018, Aldershot 0 1 Maidstone_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      13   29  +18       6.49    90.06    11.10    86.91     9.04    37.29    50.37    90.84    62.49P    0.01R    0.00  
Salford_City       13   27  +12       8.31    94.33    10.69    75.08     9.74    16.60     8.89    50.55    17.93P    0.31R    0.00  
Harrogate_Town     13   26  +11       7.51    91.93     9.90    73.90     9.91    15.02     7.49    45.86    15.80P    0.59R    0.01  
Wrexham            13   25  +10       5.05    84.50     6.86    75.31     8.70    17.89     7.33    52.04    19.36P    0.11R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     13   25   +6       8.09    94.31     7.29    69.24     8.94     4.97     2.07    25.55     6.38P    1.32R    0.02  
Gateshead          13   23   +6       3.39    74.74     3.25    72.66     8.99    12.82     4.77    40.26    13.35P    0.44R    0.01  
Sutton_United      13   23   +3       3.77    76.95     0.86    70.41     9.07     6.50     2.89    30.13     9.15P    0.94R    0.02  
Hartlepool         13   23   +2       4.10    78.43     0.30    67.29     8.88     1.20     1.38    18.92     4.94P    2.00R    0.04  
AFC_Fylde          13   22  +10       0.89    56.53     5.02    76.06     8.99    23.20     9.41    56.46    23.34P    0.14R    0.00  
Halifax            13   19   +3       2.88    72.57     5.04    60.05     8.68    -2.22     0.13     4.84     0.97P   10.02R    0.33  
Boreham_Wood       13   19   +1       0.01    50.57    -0.90    66.48     8.79     4.97     0.92    16.99     4.94P    2.37R    0.04  
Barnet             13   19   -3      -2.09    33.99    -7.96    71.09     9.24     7.15     3.24    33.36    12.50P    0.98R    0.02  
Maidenhead         13   17   +1      -0.19    49.08     1.98    59.59     9.09    -3.19     0.20     5.24     1.24P   11.93R    0.54  
Eastleigh          13   17   -6       1.51    62.72    -2.70    58.29     8.82   -11.57     0.09     3.34     0.64P   15.47R    0.84  
Barrow             13   15   -1      -2.35    32.68    -0.46    56.19     8.81    -6.49     0.06     2.25     0.55P   20.33R    1.03  
Ebbsfleet_United   13   15   -2      -2.36    32.61    -1.60    60.96     9.00    -0.53     0.21     6.58     1.68P    9.07R    0.34  
Bromley            13   13   -5      -4.30    20.36    -4.26    58.42     9.15    -4.98     0.12     3.95     0.93P   15.06R    0.87  
Maidstone_United   13   13   -7      -1.38    40.23    -2.17    49.95     8.50   -18.75     0.00     0.35     0.05P   47.17R    4.76  
Aldershot          13   13  -10      -4.20    20.35    -9.32    56.67     8.80   -11.72     0.05     2.24     0.57P   19.53R    1.12  
Chesterfield       13   11   -6      -8.62     4.45    -8.81    61.26     9.33     1.62     0.32     7.91     2.60P    9.16R    0.43  
Havant_&_Wville    13   11   -9      -1.65    39.13    -0.27    43.79     9.32   -30.08     0.01     0.15     0.04P   72.65R   18.62  
Dag_&_Red          13    9   -7      -9.33     2.86    -7.96    53.80     9.09    -7.46     0.03     1.35     0.36P   28.91R    2.33  
Dover_Athletic     13    7  -14      -9.46     2.35   -12.04    52.11     9.00   -13.94     0.01     0.80     0.20P   36.93R    3.56  
Braintree_Town     13    6  -13      -5.63    10.82    -3.82    34.44     8.55   -38.31     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.56R   65.07