Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 29 September 2018 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 23 September 2018, Arsenal 2 0 Everton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         6   18  +12       5.48    96.98     4.67    83.79     8.42    49.66    23.49    57.62    77.89    90.08    99.31     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          6   16  +16       1.11    66.06     2.64    90.09     7.53    72.50    61.93    85.24    94.45    98.14    99.92     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           6   16  +10       3.28    86.47     2.66    75.99     8.63    35.61     5.64    20.38    42.16    65.49    95.11     0.00     0.00  
Watford           6   13   +5       5.62    95.38     6.42    50.73     8.66    -7.70     0.00     0.05     0.22     0.81     8.48     2.24R    0.18  
Tottenham         6   12   +5       0.54    54.87    -0.43    77.15     8.34    40.28     6.36    23.46    49.11    71.54    96.59     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           6   12   +3       1.71    68.91    -0.36    70.62     8.93    27.37     1.58     8.04    20.81    39.69    85.61     0.00R    0.00  
Man_Utd           6   10   +0      -1.29    33.87    -4.54    68.97     8.60    23.02     0.98     5.09    14.69    31.55    82.79     0.00R    0.00  
Bournemouth       6   10   -1       2.40    76.91     0.36    46.37     8.64   -16.96     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.24     3.53     7.01R    0.79  
Leicester         6    9   +1       0.69    58.24     1.11    52.46     9.06    -2.33     0.00     0.08     0.44     1.55    12.75     1.94R    0.15  
Wolverhampton     6    9   +0       2.82    81.47     3.50    46.59     9.00   -11.29     0.00     0.02     0.08     0.37     4.16     7.17R    0.90  
Crystal_Palace    6    7   -2      -0.84    41.07    -1.29    43.55     8.43   -15.17     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08     1.80    11.27R    1.45  
Everton           6    6   -3      -2.76    20.31    -3.52    45.56     8.76   -12.11     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.20     3.15     8.34R    1.01  
Brighton          6    5   -3      -0.70    43.63     1.16    40.53     8.34   -17.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.81    19.50R    3.26  
Southampton       6    5   -3      -2.31    24.76    -1.35    42.73     8.48   -13.91     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     1.50    13.08R    2.02  
Fulham            6    5   -5      -0.89    40.71     0.64    38.23     9.08   -26.17     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.74    31.04R    7.36  
Burnley           6    4   -3      -3.72    12.85    -2.43    40.93     8.34   -14.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.79    17.77R    2.78  
West_Ham          6    4   -6      -1.91    28.85    -1.38    41.36     8.63   -19.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.07    18.14R    3.09  
Newcastle         6    2   -4      -3.92     9.42    -0.07    43.08     8.61    -8.78     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     1.82    12.09R    1.74  
Cardiff           6    2  -11      -2.68    18.21    -4.34    30.42     8.25   -38.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    66.41R   26.06  
Huddersfield      6    2  -11      -2.34    20.73    -3.46    26.30     7.34   -44.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.99R   49.20  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 September 2018, Aston_Villa 1 2 Sheff_Wed; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United     9   18  +12       3.97    83.22     9.37    74.92    10.14    21.30     9.18    19.30    55.62    27.62P    0.21R    0.02  
Middlesbrough    9   18   +8       2.80    75.34     3.83    81.27     9.57    26.39    21.83    40.08    78.85    52.11P    0.01R    0.00  
West_Brom        9   17  +10       0.13    50.31     2.81    82.78    10.38    33.38    30.35    47.92    81.18    58.50P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        9   16   +4       2.61    73.12     2.49    68.87    10.00     6.98     2.80     7.08    31.59    12.12P    1.00R    0.13  
Wigan            9   16   +3       1.68    65.33     0.00    72.07    10.23    11.09     5.73    12.35    43.43    19.95P    0.49R    0.05  
Derby            9   16   +3       0.87    57.78    -1.10    73.49     9.84    13.32     6.63    14.76    48.70    23.49P    0.24R    0.02  
Brentford        9   15   +6       1.31    62.20     3.88    73.12    10.00    17.29     6.62    14.54    48.50    23.01P    0.34R    0.04  
Bristol_City     9   14   +3       1.67    66.27     3.08    68.46    10.06     8.44     2.53     6.63    30.17    11.69P    1.13R    0.15  
Nott'm_Forest    9   14   +2       2.53    74.21     3.38    60.34     9.71    -4.66     0.31     1.03     8.82     2.35P    6.19R    1.13  
Sheff_Wed        9   14   +0       1.55    64.99    -0.08    66.24     9.95     2.15     1.60     4.26    22.55     8.08P    1.84R    0.26  
Norwich          9   14   +0       2.08    69.18     0.68    64.43     9.94    -1.03     0.96     2.87    17.71     5.74P    2.83R    0.43  
Blackburn        9   14   +0       1.99    68.52     0.53    65.60    10.27     1.42     1.57     4.21    21.61     7.85P    2.43R    0.41  
Aston_Villa      9   13   +1      -1.75    33.52    -2.67    70.24     9.87    10.78     3.39     8.69    36.65    16.12P    0.65R    0.07  
Swansea          9   13   +1      -0.69    43.87    -1.09    71.50    10.14    12.62     4.83    11.31    41.44    19.88P    0.57R    0.09  
Bolton           9   12   -3       2.87    77.94     2.00    48.73     9.06   -24.15     0.00     0.03     0.59     0.09P   36.63R   12.27  
QPR              9   10   -8      -0.45    46.80    -4.88    50.07     9.42   -25.31     0.01     0.06     0.97     0.17P   32.05R   10.43  
Birmingham       9    9   -1      -0.34    48.44     3.17    49.53     9.14   -15.29     0.01     0.03     0.73     0.15P   32.00R   10.03  
Stoke            9    9   -4      -3.72    19.50    -4.50    65.24    10.54     4.41     1.50     4.18    21.39     8.67P    3.10R    0.61  
Rotherham        9    9   -8       0.73    59.65    -1.21    45.09     9.54   -31.61     0.00     0.01     0.29     0.05P   53.37R   25.32  
Reading          9    8   -1      -3.15    22.98     0.92    50.75     9.49   -14.02     0.01     0.08     1.29     0.29P   28.32R    8.91  
Hull             9    7   -7      -4.35    14.73    -5.24    54.73     9.92   -12.60     0.09     0.29     3.31     0.89P   17.28R    4.77  
Millwall         9    6   -6      -4.51    13.01    -3.41    53.88     9.58   -10.02     0.03     0.14     2.28     0.61P   18.51R    4.90  
Ipswich          9    5   -6      -6.28     5.47    -4.42    48.52     9.35   -16.48     0.00     0.04     0.64     0.15P   36.66R   12.64  
Preston          9    5   -9      -6.40     4.91    -7.55    52.11     9.70   -14.40     0.02     0.10     1.70     0.44P   24.13R    7.31  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 September 2018, Accrington_Stanley 2 1 AFC_Wimbledon; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Peterborough          9   22  +13       6.66    94.26     8.35    84.53    10.45    31.22    25.94    46.59    85.79    57.07P    0.03R    0.00  
Portsmouth            9   21  +10       6.96    95.26     7.47    77.19    10.10    17.93     7.85    19.41    64.93    29.88P    0.18R    0.00  
Sunderland            9   18  +10       1.18    59.64     2.99    86.12    10.61    36.79    32.70    53.69    88.53    65.09P    0.03R    0.00  
Doncaster             9   18   +8       4.80    87.23     6.72    72.51     9.99    13.58     3.32     9.66    46.74    17.92P    0.68R    0.03  
Walsall               9   18   +3       5.73    91.26     3.16    67.25     9.96     0.72     1.03     3.51    26.07     7.64P    2.64R    0.20  
Charlton              9   17   +4       3.37    78.96     2.11    73.38    10.11    12.34     3.79    10.79    49.95    20.61P    0.61R    0.04  
Barnsley              8   15  +10      -0.05    48.40     3.84    82.16    10.84    32.53    20.28    38.71    79.76    52.48P    0.10R    0.00  
Blackpool             9   14   +3       0.75    57.40     1.58    64.44     9.82     2.97     0.52     1.98    18.64     5.68P    4.46R    0.33  
Accrington_Stanley    9   14   +1       2.57    73.26     2.32    59.15    10.33    -7.61     0.26     0.86     8.90     2.46P   13.68R    1.96  
Fleetwood_Town        9   13   +6      -0.16    48.80     4.81    67.07    10.04    11.00     1.17     3.68    27.41     9.21P    2.67R    0.20  
Scunthorpe            9   13   -5      -0.09    49.60    -5.97    68.30    10.39     1.59     1.50     4.87    30.70    11.12P    2.71R    0.23  
Luton                 9   12   +0       0.23    53.05     0.87    63.74    10.62     1.52     0.65     2.16    18.60     5.98P    6.63R    0.81  
Coventry              9   11   -3       0.38    54.98    -0.70    52.42     9.86   -15.64     0.03     0.12     2.32     0.48P   31.99R    6.79  
Rochdale              9   11   -6       0.39    55.03    -2.99    59.27    10.16   -10.21     0.15     0.66     8.39     2.13P   13.30R    2.01  
Burton_Albion         8   10   -1      -1.28    38.08    -1.46    61.65    10.71    -1.55     0.42     1.59    14.34     4.68P    9.50R    1.32  
Southend              9   10   -3      -1.73    34.88    -2.13    59.28    10.02    -5.42     0.15     0.66     8.55     2.25P   12.53R    1.71  
Bristol_Rovers        9    8   -2      -3.91    17.79    -1.27    54.37    10.00    -9.02     0.04     0.16     3.62     0.86P   25.07R    4.73  
Wycombe               9    8   -4      -1.81    34.74    -0.24    47.02    10.04   -22.43     0.00     0.02     0.81     0.16P   54.03R   18.22  
AFC_Wimbledon         9    8   -6      -1.96    32.27    -2.57    50.90     9.56   -16.77     0.01     0.04     1.36     0.24P   37.67R    8.63  
Shrewsbury            9    7   -2      -5.33     9.75    -2.20    59.59     9.80     1.05     0.13     0.59     8.50     2.64P   10.76R    1.44  
Gillingham            9    7   -7      -3.43    20.38    -3.83    51.54     9.92   -16.62     0.00     0.05     1.89     0.40P   35.42R    8.70  
Bradford              9    6   -8      -4.78    11.84    -5.81    52.72     9.96   -14.18     0.03     0.14     2.44     0.63P   30.96R    6.67  
Oxford_Utd            9    5  -10      -5.62     8.06    -7.07    50.05    10.12   -19.26     0.02     0.05     1.48     0.33P   41.60R   11.53  
Plymouth              9    3  -11      -7.30     2.54    -8.01    44.70     9.58   -24.52     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.05P   62.74R   24.42  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 September 2018, Yeovil 1 1 MK_Dons; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City      9   22  +11       7.24    96.22     7.42    81.57     9.93    24.13    21.94    50.97    82.02    58.56P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter            9   19   +9       3.99    82.67     4.92    80.67    10.11    25.50    20.02    48.62    79.58    56.93P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County    9   19   -3       7.94    97.28    -1.15    65.38     9.79    -9.16     0.96     5.60    22.83     8.50P    0.48R    0.10  
Colchester        9   16  +12       1.27    61.40     8.45    77.44     9.96    27.97    12.77    36.75    70.61    46.32P    0.01R    0.00  
Carlisle          9   16   +0       3.31    78.54    -0.53    70.35    10.04     5.46     3.34    13.59    41.32    19.74P    0.16R    0.03  
Yeovil            9   15   +9       2.84    75.15     9.25    67.41     9.90    11.47     1.80     8.67    31.64    13.38P    0.29R    0.07  
Oldham            9   15   +6      -1.01    40.02     0.51    76.49    10.66    22.09    12.01    33.47    65.87    43.49P    0.04R    0.00  
Forest_Green      9   15   +6       3.81    82.05     7.74    62.32     9.93     0.76     0.61     3.36    16.29     5.71P    1.15R    0.23  
Swindon           9   15   +2       1.08    60.20    -0.44    71.59    10.27    10.71     4.56    17.44    47.20    24.73P    0.12R    0.01  
Stevenage         9   15   +2       1.03    59.73    -0.37    63.42     9.93    -1.36     0.73     4.16    18.67     7.14P    0.85R    0.15  
MK_Dons           9   14   +2      -0.11    48.99    -0.64    76.39    10.39    19.07    10.45    31.76    65.42    42.06P    0.03R    0.01  
Bury              9   13   +3      -1.39    37.04    -0.08    71.82    10.72    15.11     5.53    19.43    48.60    27.63P    0.18R    0.03  
Port_Vale         9   13   +2       0.71    57.25     1.98    63.13     9.85     1.51     0.65     3.77    17.66     6.83P    1.03R    0.22  
Tranmere          9   13   +2       1.79    67.11     3.51    60.54    10.21    -2.24     0.46     2.71    12.83     4.88P    2.17R    0.47  
Crawley_Town      9   13   +0       1.80    67.32     1.72    60.87     9.92    -4.25     0.37     2.37    12.85     4.31P    1.78R    0.38  
Mansfield         8   11   +3      -1.49    35.41     0.76    69.78    10.14    12.97     3.21    13.40    40.67    21.00P    0.21R    0.03  
Crewe             8    8   +0      -2.78    24.27     0.29    56.28    10.28    -6.12     0.17     1.11     6.81     2.33P    5.07R    1.31  
Cheltenham        9    8   -4      -3.24    22.11    -2.34    53.27     9.88   -12.21     0.08     0.44     3.32     1.00P    8.45R    2.29  
Cambridge_Utd     9    8   -8      -3.01    24.02    -6.13    55.27     9.80   -12.93     0.07     0.59     4.57     1.41P    5.89R    1.63  
Northampton       9    7   -5      -5.72     8.84    -5.60    57.67    10.51    -5.13     0.22     1.57     8.90     3.36P    4.27R    1.13  
Morecambe         9    6  -13      -3.10    22.06    -8.14    43.45     9.12   -32.21     0.00     0.01     0.19     0.04P   36.67R   13.72  
Grimsby           9    5  -11      -4.02    14.73    -6.22    43.24     9.15   -29.13     0.00     0.01     0.21     0.05P   36.97R   13.78  
Notts_County      9    3  -14      -7.68     2.31   -11.25    50.17    10.09   -20.14     0.03     0.19     1.92     0.58P   15.16R    5.02  
Macclesfield      9    2  -11      -5.73     4.98    -3.66    33.11     9.22   -41.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.02R   59.39  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 September 2018, Aldershot 0 1 Maidstone_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      13   29  +18       6.51    90.35    11.11    86.88     8.99    37.25    50.29    90.94    62.74P    0.01R    0.00  
Salford_City       13   27  +12       8.15    93.77    10.46    75.39     9.75    17.03     9.38    51.96    19.08P    0.38R    0.00  
Harrogate_Town     13   26  +11       7.55    92.23     9.98    73.79     9.90    14.83     7.08    45.47    15.11P    0.67R    0.02  
Wrexham            13   25  +10       5.09    84.49     6.89    75.24     8.67    17.83     7.32    51.78    18.89P    0.13R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     13   25   +6       8.08    94.41     7.29    69.32     8.93     5.03     2.10    25.86     6.43P    1.21R    0.03  
Gateshead          13   23   +6       3.37    74.45     3.20    72.71     9.05    12.85     4.75    40.22    13.41P    0.50R    0.00  
Sutton_United      13   23   +3       3.89    77.33     1.01    70.27     9.00     6.30     2.67    29.59     8.65P    1.01R    0.02  
Hartlepool         13   23   +2       4.04    78.43     0.22    67.33     8.88     1.24     1.28    19.45     5.18P    2.00R    0.04  
AFC_Fylde          13   22  +10       0.90    56.89     5.03    76.11     9.01    23.30     9.61    56.59    23.67P    0.14R    0.00  
Halifax            13   19   +3       2.85    72.35     5.04    60.09     8.66    -2.11     0.15     4.81     1.01P    9.96R    0.31  
Boreham_Wood       13   19   +1       0.06    50.85    -0.87    66.37     8.80     4.79     0.89    16.76     4.82P    2.48R    0.04  
Barnet             13   19   -3      -2.05    34.37    -7.91    70.99     9.27     7.02     3.36    33.05    12.35P    0.94R    0.01  
Maidenhead         13   17   +1      -0.20    49.08     2.00    59.55     9.01    -3.26     0.19     5.06     1.13P   12.08R    0.52  
Eastleigh          13   17   -6       1.47    62.57    -2.74    58.30     8.83   -11.56     0.11     3.36     0.67P   15.44R    0.80  
Barrow             13   15   -1      -2.35    32.48    -0.50    56.17     8.83    -6.55     0.05     2.28     0.51P   20.47R    1.05  
Ebbsfleet_United   13   15   -2      -2.37    32.44    -1.60    61.09     8.92    -0.36     0.22     6.47     1.66P    8.69R    0.36  
Bromley            13   13   -5      -4.24    20.53    -4.15    58.33     9.00    -5.10     0.13     3.78     0.93P   14.78R    0.84  
Maidstone_United   13   13   -7      -1.39    40.02    -2.21    49.88     8.58   -18.84     0.00     0.30     0.04P   47.09R    5.06  
Aldershot          13   13  -10      -4.26    19.77    -9.42    56.66     8.85   -11.69     0.06     2.28     0.54P   19.69R    1.14  
Chesterfield       13   11   -6      -8.53     4.66    -8.69    61.16     9.38     1.46     0.30     7.68     2.54P    9.60R    0.42  
Havant_&_Wville    13   11   -9      -1.73    38.36    -0.45    44.05     9.31   -29.61     0.00     0.17     0.04P   71.77R   17.78  
Dag_&_Red          13    9   -7      -9.28     2.96    -7.85    53.71     9.01    -7.58     0.04     1.35     0.40P   29.36R    2.36  
Dover_Athletic     13    7  -14      -9.45     2.27   -12.01    52.10     9.06   -13.97     0.01     0.80     0.19P   37.11R    3.79  
Braintree_Town     13    6  -13      -5.66    10.75    -3.83    34.46     8.57   -38.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.50R   65.41