Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 28 September 2018 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 23 September 2018, Arsenal 2 0 Everton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         6   18  +12       5.48    96.98     4.64    83.93     8.40    50.02    23.95    58.58    78.57    90.49    99.36     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          6   16  +16       1.10    65.89     2.62    90.16     7.55    72.62    62.13    85.14    94.28    98.18    99.93     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           6   16  +10       3.27    86.35     2.64    75.90     8.60    35.51     5.17    19.85    42.01    65.63    95.28     0.00R    0.00  
Watford           6   13   +5       5.57    95.29     6.31    50.91     8.62    -7.31     0.00     0.04     0.23     0.87     8.92     2.10R    0.15  
Tottenham         6   12   +5       0.51    54.27    -0.44    77.16     8.36    40.34     6.36    23.77    49.78    72.25    96.63     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           6   12   +3       1.75    69.18    -0.28    70.23     8.89    26.55     1.46     7.54    19.74    38.47    84.63     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd           6   10   +0      -1.24    34.48    -4.47    68.84     8.56    22.87     0.91     4.95    14.61    31.23    82.31     0.01R    0.00  
Bournemouth       6   10   -1       2.40    76.93     0.33    46.35     8.63   -16.96     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.23     3.65     7.14R    0.75  
Leicester         6    9   +1       0.67    58.31     1.09    52.62     9.01    -2.01     0.01     0.09     0.47     1.63    13.33     1.81R    0.15  
Wolverhampton     6    9   +0       2.75    80.97     3.37    46.94     8.98   -10.63     0.00     0.03     0.12     0.46     4.58     6.54R    0.86  
Crystal_Palace    6    7   -2      -0.82    41.38    -1.27    43.69     8.44   -14.93     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.11     1.80    10.95R    1.27  
Everton           6    6   -3      -2.72    20.47    -3.47    45.32     8.73   -12.58     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.18     2.92     8.54R    0.98  
Brighton          6    5   -3      -0.66    44.04     1.26    40.33     8.31   -17.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.65    20.09R    3.15  
Southampton       6    5   -3      -2.33    24.43    -1.39    42.72     8.44   -13.76     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.08     1.54    13.11R    2.00  
Fulham            6    5   -5      -0.89    40.69     0.66    38.30     9.07   -26.05     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.71    30.68R    7.00  
Burnley           6    4   -3      -3.70    12.76    -2.41    41.11     8.33   -14.37     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.89    17.12R    2.73  
West_Ham          6    4   -6      -1.90    28.60    -1.39    41.31     8.68   -19.31     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     1.01    18.65R    3.11  
Newcastle         6    2   -4      -3.94     9.07    -0.11    43.16     8.59    -8.72     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     1.80    11.97R    1.72  
Cardiff           6    2  -11      -2.65    18.41    -4.29    30.32     8.31   -38.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    66.54R   26.36  
Huddersfield      6    2  -11      -2.32    21.00    -3.40    26.08     7.30   -44.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.72R   49.76  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 September 2018, Aston_Villa 1 2 Sheff_Wed; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United     9   18  +12       4.04    83.79     9.47    74.76    10.09    21.12     8.80    18.64    55.00    26.82P    0.13R    0.01  
Middlesbrough    9   18   +8       2.74    74.64     3.77    81.43     9.59    26.61    22.24    40.64    79.07    52.63P    0.01R    0.01  
West_Brom        9   17  +10       0.16    50.70     2.88    82.77    10.47    33.36    30.51    47.99    81.10    58.50P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        9   16   +4       2.57    72.85     2.41    68.90    10.10     7.11     2.92     7.23    31.58    12.29P    0.96R    0.11  
Wigan            9   16   +3       1.65    65.03    -0.07    72.16    10.20    11.21     5.61    12.65    43.66    20.25P    0.49R    0.07  
Derby            9   16   +3       0.80    56.98    -1.18    73.58     9.80    13.44     6.55    14.60    49.44    23.60P    0.24R    0.02  
Brentford        9   15   +6       1.31    62.44     3.88    73.13    10.03    17.28     6.63    14.77    48.27    22.92P    0.35R    0.04  
Bristol_City     9   14   +3       1.67    66.06     3.12    68.41    10.09     8.38     2.49     6.59    30.17    11.52P    1.20R    0.21  
Nott'm_Forest    9   14   +2       2.52    73.82     3.39    60.23     9.68    -4.84     0.28     0.96     8.60     2.29P    6.23R    1.19  
Sheff_Wed        9   14   +0       1.50    64.67    -0.18    66.59     9.94     2.72     1.66     4.56    23.74     8.55P    1.67R    0.25  
Norwich          9   14   +0       2.09    69.43     0.67    64.32     9.87    -1.19     0.91     2.72    17.09     5.51P    2.72R    0.44  
Blackburn        9   14   +0       2.10    69.71     0.67    65.21    10.27     0.77     1.39     3.78    20.23     7.23P    2.81R    0.47  
Aston_Villa      9   13   +1      -1.72    34.15    -2.63    70.15     9.87    10.71     3.42     8.28    35.99    15.58P    0.68R    0.07  
Swansea          9   13   +1      -0.71    43.29    -1.14    71.78    10.08    12.97     4.81    11.52    42.47    20.42P    0.47R    0.06  
Bolton           9   12   -3       2.88    77.97     1.99    48.78     9.11   -24.17     0.01     0.03     0.61     0.10P   36.19R   11.94  
QPR              9   10   -8      -0.45    46.72    -4.91    50.28     9.43   -25.02     0.01     0.06     0.98     0.21P   31.56R   10.19  
Birmingham       9    9   -1      -0.29    48.86     3.25    49.42     9.15   -15.53     0.01     0.05     0.70     0.15P   32.26R   10.41  
Stoke            9    9   -4      -3.80    18.81    -4.61    65.42    10.52     4.75     1.62     4.28    21.75     9.01P    3.03R    0.56  
Rotherham        9    9   -8       0.78    59.91    -1.14    45.01     9.60   -31.78     0.01     0.02     0.34     0.08P   53.54R   25.31  
Reading          9    8   -1      -3.11    23.08     0.96    50.69     9.71   -14.10     0.02     0.09     1.34     0.31P   28.75R    9.24  
Hull             9    7   -7      -4.34    14.94    -5.19    54.52     9.93   -12.98     0.07     0.25     3.18     0.83P   17.83R    4.85  
Millwall         9    6   -6      -4.50    13.04    -3.42    53.75     9.66   -10.12     0.04     0.17     2.34     0.57P   18.78R    4.94  
Ipswich          9    5   -6      -6.33     5.45    -4.48    48.65     9.39   -16.29     0.01     0.03     0.63     0.16P   36.02R   12.39  
Preston          9    5   -9      -6.40     4.86    -7.52    52.10     9.75   -14.41     0.02     0.11     1.73     0.46P   24.03R    7.22  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 September 2018, Accrington_Stanley 2 1 AFC_Wimbledon; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Peterborough          9   22  +13       6.61    94.06     8.27    84.67    10.44    31.48    26.58    47.38    86.03    57.46P    0.02R    0.00  
Portsmouth            9   21  +10       6.99    95.22     7.53    76.97    10.12    17.68     7.86    18.90    64.13    29.25P    0.15R    0.00  
Sunderland            9   18  +10       1.22    59.96     3.09    85.82    10.53    36.39    31.46    52.63    88.41    64.75P    0.02R    0.00  
Doncaster             9   18   +8       4.80    86.90     6.70    72.56    10.08    13.64     3.57     9.78    46.83    18.08P    0.68R    0.03  
Walsall               9   18   +3       5.72    91.18     3.15    67.38    10.06     0.87     1.19     3.76    26.58     7.97P    2.50R    0.16  
Charlton              9   17   +4       3.31    78.41     2.05    73.48    10.00    12.49     3.69    10.86    50.17    20.57P    0.55R    0.02  
Barnsley              8   15  +10      -0.11    47.65     3.77    82.26    10.75    32.68    20.59    38.90    80.08    52.83P    0.08R    0.01  
Blackpool             9   14   +3       0.79    57.79     1.61    64.39     9.88     2.87     0.53     1.97    18.55     5.59P    4.37R    0.41  
Accrington_Stanley    9   14   +1       2.63    73.51     2.36    59.19    10.40    -7.54     0.27     0.94     9.27     2.54P   13.87R    2.03  
Fleetwood_Town        9   13   +6      -0.19    48.43     4.77    67.17    10.07    11.11     1.15     3.81    27.89     9.56P    2.62R    0.22  
Scunthorpe            9   13   -5      -0.08    49.32    -5.96    68.29    10.30     1.61     1.44     4.70    30.36    10.71P    2.70R    0.20  
Luton                 9   12   +0       0.21    52.61     0.87    63.80    10.64     1.56     0.61     2.19    18.63     5.95P    6.71R    0.76  
Coventry              9   11   -3       0.43    55.41    -0.69    52.35     9.77   -15.73     0.01     0.11     2.11     0.48P   32.35R    6.58  
Rochdale              9   11   -6       0.43    55.63    -2.96    59.18    10.19   -10.35     0.17     0.64     8.31     2.08P   13.75R    2.05  
Burton_Albion         8   10   -1      -1.29    37.96    -1.48    61.64    10.75    -1.61     0.50     1.68    14.18     4.65P    9.65R    1.24  
Southend              9   10   -3      -1.78    34.40    -2.19    59.48    10.01    -5.11     0.14     0.65     8.75     2.41P   11.98R    1.69  
Bristol_Rovers        9    8   -2      -3.90    17.87    -1.24    54.44    10.07    -8.86     0.05     0.21     3.70     0.88P   24.85R    4.70  
Wycombe               9    8   -4      -1.74    35.09    -0.10    46.89     9.99   -22.75     0.00     0.02     0.64     0.15P   54.11R   18.66  
AFC_Wimbledon         9    8   -6      -1.93    33.05    -2.55    50.76     9.53   -16.99     0.01     0.04     1.26     0.23P   37.98R    8.84  
Shrewsbury            9    7   -2      -5.35     9.54    -2.22    59.53     9.76     0.97     0.13     0.60     8.29     2.49P   10.77R    1.38  
Gillingham            9    7   -7      -3.48    20.01    -3.88    51.74     9.91   -16.38     0.01     0.06     1.92     0.43P   34.73R    8.36  
Bradford              9    6   -8      -4.78    11.80    -5.81    52.81     9.93   -14.00     0.02     0.10     2.29     0.56P   30.55R    6.64  
Oxford_Utd            9    5  -10      -5.61     7.91    -7.04    49.81    10.03   -19.66     0.01     0.05     1.31     0.30P   42.41R   11.79  
Plymouth              9    3  -11      -7.33     2.52    -8.04    44.78     9.66   -24.35     0.00     0.01     0.29     0.07P   62.60R   24.23  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 September 2018, Yeovil 1 1 MK_Dons; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City      9   22  +11       7.27    96.17     7.44    81.39     9.92    23.90    21.47    50.65    81.76    58.49P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter            9   19   +9       3.98    82.51     4.95    80.64    10.10    25.48    20.07    48.14    79.44    56.34P    0.01R    0.00  
Newport_County    9   19   -3       7.94    97.24    -1.15    65.44     9.76    -9.11     1.03     5.57    22.81     8.52P    0.45R    0.06  
Colchester        9   16  +12       1.25    61.28     8.41    77.57    10.00    28.22    13.24    37.50    71.33    47.04P    0.02R    0.00  
Carlisle          9   16   +0       3.24    77.71    -0.64    70.57    10.02     5.84     3.50    14.18    42.25    20.51P    0.16R    0.02  
Yeovil            9   15   +9       2.82    74.79     9.23    67.47     9.99    11.53     1.99     8.86    32.07    13.93P    0.33R    0.05  
Oldham            9   15   +6      -1.04    39.41     0.50    76.70    10.54    22.36    12.05    34.04    66.70    43.89P    0.03R    0.00  
Forest_Green      9   15   +6       3.79    81.77     7.74    62.34     9.93     0.81     0.57     3.33    16.19     5.70P    1.14R    0.23  
Swindon           9   15   +2       1.06    59.79    -0.43    71.52    10.28    10.63     4.65    17.30    46.86    24.61P    0.13R    0.02  
Stevenage         9   15   +2       1.05    59.99    -0.35    63.44     9.92    -1.31     0.82     4.31    18.67     7.35P    0.87R    0.15  
MK_Dons           9   14   +2      -0.17    48.51    -0.73    76.56    10.28    19.34    10.67    32.42    66.21    42.93P    0.02R    0.00  
Bury              9   13   +3      -1.32    38.04     0.02    71.48    10.62    14.63     4.88    18.23    47.83    26.37P    0.17R    0.04  
Port_Vale         9   13   +2       0.80    58.14     2.09    62.76     9.73     1.03     0.57     3.40    16.70     6.19P    1.01R    0.19  
Tranmere          9   13   +2       1.86    67.67     3.60    60.30    10.18    -2.62     0.46     2.55    12.23     4.56P    2.17R    0.47  
Crawley_Town      9   13   +0       1.79    67.28     1.68    60.87     9.85    -4.17     0.36     2.34    12.53     4.18P    1.80R    0.40  
Mansfield         8   11   +3      -1.50    35.51     0.74    69.86    10.04    13.09     3.15    13.37    40.77    20.83P    0.18R    0.03  
Crewe             8    8   +0      -2.78    24.38     0.32    56.25    10.24    -6.17     0.16     1.11     6.79     2.25P    5.06R    1.28  
Cheltenham        9    8   -4      -3.17    22.79    -2.24    53.20     9.83   -12.32     0.05     0.35     3.21     0.88P    8.24R    2.27  
Cambridge_Utd     9    8   -8      -3.06    23.50    -6.18    55.31     9.79   -12.86     0.08     0.60     4.59     1.43P    6.03R    1.57  
Northampton       9    7   -5      -5.73     8.77    -5.57    57.64    10.48    -5.11     0.23     1.55     8.88     3.43P    4.33R    1.25  
Morecambe         9    6  -13      -3.12    21.79    -8.25    43.46     9.08   -32.18     0.00     0.02     0.20     0.05P   36.24R   13.23  
Grimsby           9    5  -11      -3.99    15.38    -6.15    43.23     9.21   -29.18     0.00     0.01     0.17     0.03P   37.44R   13.97  
Notts_County      9    3  -14      -7.78     2.15   -11.38    50.42    10.02   -19.75     0.02     0.16     1.81     0.49P   14.69R    4.82  
Macclesfield      9    2  -11      -5.73     4.97    -3.67    33.00     9.16   -42.07     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   79.46R   59.95  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 September 2018, Aldershot 0 1 Maidstone_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      13   29  +18       6.44    89.93    11.03    86.92     8.93    37.29    50.40    91.10    63.09P    0.00R    0.00  
Salford_City       13   27  +12       8.22    93.80    10.58    75.31     9.79    16.85     9.24    51.73    18.69P    0.36R    0.00  
Harrogate_Town     13   26  +11       7.54    92.20     9.94    73.86     9.81    14.92     7.08    45.74    15.37P    0.62R    0.01  
Wrexham            13   25  +10       4.99    83.81     6.76    75.39     8.78    17.97     7.76    52.48    19.39P    0.14R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     13   25   +6       8.15    94.56     7.37    69.05     8.86     4.70     1.94    24.70     6.05P    1.28R    0.03  
Gateshead          13   23   +6       3.41    75.00     3.29    72.53     8.99    12.59     4.46    39.48    12.86P    0.50R    0.01  
Sutton_United      13   23   +3       3.81    77.18     0.90    70.39     8.99     6.45     2.87    29.90     9.01P    1.00R    0.01  
Hartlepool         13   23   +2       3.98    78.09     0.16    67.28     8.81     1.23     1.29    19.18     5.07P    1.99R    0.03  
AFC_Fylde          13   22  +10       0.90    56.59     5.05    76.02     9.00    23.17     9.48    56.16    23.09P    0.15R    0.00  
Halifax            13   19   +3       2.87    72.54     5.04    60.18     8.74    -2.01     0.19     5.12     1.15P    9.83R    0.37  
Boreham_Wood       13   19   +1       0.06    50.88    -0.87    66.48     8.82     4.97     0.98    16.95     4.82P    2.39R    0.04  
Barnet             13   19   -3      -2.10    33.98    -8.00    71.09     9.20     7.13     3.26    33.40    12.54P    0.90R    0.02  
Maidenhead         13   17   +1      -0.29    48.58     1.82    59.89     9.09    -2.72     0.23     5.78     1.36P   11.32R    0.45  
Eastleigh          13   17   -6       1.57    63.45    -2.58    58.24     8.78   -11.63     0.10     3.18     0.67P   15.41R    0.86  
Barrow             13   15   -1      -2.36    32.43    -0.47    56.18     8.85    -6.58     0.06     2.26     0.48P   20.62R    1.09  
Ebbsfleet_United   13   15   -2      -2.29    32.93    -1.51    60.81     8.91    -0.74     0.19     6.06     1.61P    9.29R    0.41  
Bromley            13   13   -5      -4.33    20.25    -4.30    58.38     9.16    -5.00     0.14     4.01     1.01P   15.33R    0.85  
Maidstone_United   13   13   -7      -1.35    40.44    -2.16    49.94     8.62   -18.75     0.00     0.31     0.06P   46.86R    5.14  
Aldershot          13   13  -10      -4.20    20.37    -9.36    56.60     8.77   -11.81     0.04     2.16     0.45P   19.61R    1.05  
Chesterfield       13   11   -6      -8.62     4.48    -8.79    61.22     9.42     1.60     0.27     8.00     2.63P    9.64R    0.49  
Havant_&_Wville    13   11   -9      -1.67    38.79    -0.34    43.81     9.23   -29.95     0.00     0.10     0.02P   72.54R   18.37  
Dag_&_Red          13    9   -7      -9.26     3.02    -7.79    53.77     9.03    -7.51     0.03     1.39     0.35P   28.88R    2.33  
Dover_Athletic     13    7  -14      -9.39     2.35   -11.92    52.06     9.06   -14.07     0.01     0.80     0.21P   36.89R    3.85  
Braintree_Town     13    6  -13      -5.67    10.47    -3.84    34.57     8.53   -38.09     0.00     0.01     0.00P   94.44R   64.61