Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 27 September 2018 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 23 September 2018, Arsenal 2 0 Everton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         6   18  +12       5.48    97.08     4.66    83.84     8.34    49.87    23.67    57.75    78.69    90.39    99.39     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          6   16  +16       1.08    65.44     2.56    90.20     7.55    72.69    62.16    85.48    94.53    98.26    99.93     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           6   16  +10       3.24    86.22     2.57    76.19     8.63    35.88     5.78    21.07    43.59    67.23    95.38     0.00     0.00  
Watford           6   13   +5       5.58    95.30     6.35    50.79     8.63    -7.55     0.00     0.04     0.21     0.84     8.60     2.22R    0.22  
Tottenham         6   12   +5       0.55    54.73    -0.36    76.99     8.41    40.04     6.11    23.38    48.87    71.26    96.34     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           6   12   +3       1.73    68.95    -0.33    70.30     8.88    26.78     1.42     7.57    19.51    38.41    85.06     0.00R    0.00  
Man_Utd           6   10   +0      -1.21    35.05    -4.43    68.69     8.50    22.66     0.85     4.56    13.84    30.60    82.22     0.01R    0.00  
Bournemouth       6   10   -1       2.42    77.15     0.38    46.39     8.71   -16.94     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.26     3.64     7.12R    0.80  
Leicester         6    9   +1       0.63    57.48     1.01    52.69     9.03    -1.91     0.01     0.10     0.48     1.68    13.34     1.82R    0.15  
Wolverhampton     6    9   +0       2.78    81.22     3.42    46.86     8.98   -10.76     0.00     0.02     0.12     0.44     4.43     6.64R    0.77  
Crystal_Palace    6    7   -2      -0.84    40.91    -1.29    43.77     8.50   -14.84     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.13     1.99    11.13R    1.34  
Everton           6    6   -3      -2.73    20.54    -3.48    45.53     8.75   -12.22     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.22     3.21     8.12R    0.96  
Brighton          6    5   -3      -0.71    43.40     1.14    40.69     8.38   -17.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.85    18.85R    3.23  
Southampton       6    5   -3      -2.33    24.40    -1.40    42.88     8.45   -13.58     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.09     1.49    12.65R    1.83  
Fulham            6    5   -5      -0.88    40.77     0.70    38.04     9.03   -26.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.71    31.64R    7.47  
Burnley           6    4   -3      -3.73    12.69    -2.45    40.92     8.31   -14.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.85    17.53R    2.74  
West_Ham          6    4   -6      -1.90    28.43    -1.38    41.30     8.65   -19.25     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     1.03    18.52R    3.26  
Newcastle         6    2   -4      -3.93     9.26    -0.09    42.91     8.56    -9.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.48    12.45R    1.77  
Cardiff           6    2  -11      -2.61    19.04    -4.17    30.08     8.21   -39.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    67.78R   27.43  
Huddersfield      6    2  -11      -2.33    20.93    -3.41    26.36     7.36   -44.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.50R   48.03  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 September 2018, Aston_Villa 1 2 Sheff_Wed; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United     9   18  +12       4.05    83.74     9.44    74.91    10.09    21.27     9.04    19.16    55.49    27.46P    0.17R    0.01  
Middlesbrough    9   18   +8       2.73    74.70     3.77    81.41     9.52    26.59    21.99    40.51    79.21    52.49P    0.02R    0.00  
West_Brom        9   17  +10       0.12    50.22     2.83    82.98    10.29    33.72    30.90    48.51    82.00    59.26P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        9   16   +4       2.64    73.59     2.50    68.58    10.05     6.62     2.61     6.61    30.47    11.55P    1.13R    0.16  
Wigan            9   16   +3       1.62    64.82    -0.10    72.17    10.24    11.23     5.51    12.54    43.60    20.33P    0.49R    0.06  
Derby            9   16   +3       0.79    57.01    -1.20    73.56     9.80    13.40     6.41    14.51    49.39    23.47P    0.24R    0.02  
Brentford        9   15   +6       1.29    62.35     3.88    73.18    10.10    17.33     6.80    14.78    48.50    23.05P    0.30R    0.02  
Bristol_City     9   14   +3       1.66    66.12     3.06    68.57    10.04     8.65     2.50     6.57    30.82    11.92P    1.13R    0.18  
Nott'm_Forest    9   14   +2       2.57    74.41     3.45    60.23     9.71    -4.82     0.31     1.04     8.59     2.28P    6.24R    1.09  
Sheff_Wed        9   14   +0       1.54    65.20    -0.13    66.34     9.88     2.34     1.60     4.19    22.62     7.89P    1.81R    0.26  
Norwich          9   14   +0       2.04    68.93     0.60    64.57     9.93    -0.76     1.00     2.97    18.19     5.82P    2.64R    0.40  
Blackburn        9   14   +0       2.12    69.86     0.74    65.18    10.19     0.77     1.39     3.74    19.92     7.06P    2.69R    0.45  
Aston_Villa      9   13   +1      -1.70    34.16    -2.60    69.93     9.84    10.40     3.26     8.26    35.16    15.47P    0.67R    0.05  
Swansea          9   13   +1      -0.72    43.30    -1.14    71.65    10.20    12.78     4.92    11.62    42.07    20.23P    0.54R    0.07  
Bolton           9   12   -3       2.87    77.93     1.99    48.77     9.09   -24.15     0.01     0.03     0.59     0.10P   36.44R   12.11  
QPR              9   10   -8      -0.45    47.02    -4.91    50.26     9.43   -25.10     0.02     0.04     0.90     0.16P   31.37R   10.05  
Birmingham       9    9   -1      -0.25    49.30     3.28    49.29     9.17   -15.63     0.01     0.04     0.71     0.14P   33.16R   10.84  
Stoke            9    9   -4      -3.78    18.92    -4.60    65.49    10.52     4.83     1.53     4.17    22.14     8.89P    2.93R    0.50  
Rotherham        9    9   -8       0.77    60.03    -1.12    44.96     9.62   -31.94     0.01     0.01     0.31     0.06P   53.68R   25.43  
Reading          9    8   -1      -3.16    22.78     0.90    50.76     9.58   -14.03     0.01     0.09     1.19     0.24P   28.43R    8.96  
Hull             9    7   -7      -4.32    14.89    -5.17    54.55     9.98   -12.98     0.09     0.28     3.28     0.90P   17.82R    4.85  
Millwall         9    6   -6      -4.54    12.77    -3.47    53.91     9.58    -9.86     0.04     0.16     2.35     0.61P   18.15R    4.74  
Ipswich          9    5   -6      -6.31     5.38    -4.48    48.67     9.50   -16.26     0.01     0.05     0.67     0.16P   35.84R   12.50  
Preston          9    5   -9      -6.39     4.72    -7.52    52.12     9.77   -14.40     0.03     0.12     1.83     0.46P   24.09R    7.25  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 September 2018, Accrington_Stanley 2 1 AFC_Wimbledon; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Peterborough          9   22  +13       6.70    94.42     8.39    84.43    10.31    31.03    25.20    46.01    85.81    56.38P    0.04R    0.00  
Portsmouth            9   21  +10       7.00    95.34     7.54    77.05    10.12    17.78     7.94    19.08    64.17    29.70P    0.20R    0.00  
Sunderland            9   18  +10       1.14    59.22     2.94    86.09    10.59    36.79    32.40    53.72    88.27    65.44P    0.02R    0.00  
Doncaster             9   18   +8       4.71    86.69     6.57    72.74    10.06    13.95     3.70     9.81    47.71    18.54P    0.63R    0.04  
Walsall               9   18   +3       5.71    91.08     3.11    67.45    10.02     0.96     1.19     3.73    26.73     7.92P    2.50R    0.16  
Charlton              9   17   +4       3.36    78.70     2.13    73.27    10.04    12.18     3.63    10.32    49.24    19.84P    0.59R    0.02  
Barnsley              8   15  +10      -0.19    46.96     3.65    82.44    10.83    33.00    20.94    39.69    80.50    53.48P    0.09R    0.00  
Blackpool             9   14   +3       0.68    56.88     1.48    64.76     9.79     3.45     0.59     2.06    19.08     5.82P    3.96R    0.32  
Accrington_Stanley    9   14   +1       2.63    73.33     2.37    59.02    10.33    -7.77     0.22     0.80     8.68     2.23P   13.80R    2.09  
Fleetwood_Town        9   13   +6      -0.18    48.67     4.81    67.16    10.13    11.14     1.19     3.84    27.58     9.51P    2.67R    0.20  
Scunthorpe            9   13   -5      -0.04    49.82    -5.89    68.08    10.40     1.30     1.42     4.58    29.92    10.45P    2.76R    0.23  
Luton                 9   12   +0       0.18    52.82     0.79    63.98    10.62     1.78     0.56     2.30    18.89     6.10P    6.30R    0.82  
Coventry              9   11   -3       0.45    55.78    -0.63    52.18     9.79   -16.03     0.02     0.08     2.08     0.43P   32.73R    6.74  
Rochdale              9   11   -6       0.41    55.17    -2.96    59.23    10.11   -10.30     0.14     0.58     8.39     2.06P   13.21R    1.90  
Burton_Albion         8   10   -1      -1.31    37.70    -1.47    61.66    10.72    -1.57     0.44     1.54    14.32     4.35P    9.50R    1.30  
Southend              9   10   -3      -1.78    34.70    -2.19    59.67    10.05    -4.85     0.19     0.73     9.01     2.56P   11.74R    1.52  
Bristol_Rovers        9    8   -2      -3.93    17.85    -1.28    54.36     9.99    -8.96     0.06     0.23     3.63     0.88P   24.79R    4.46  
Wycombe               9    8   -4      -1.67    35.80    -0.01    46.65     9.98   -22.97     0.00     0.02     0.67     0.14P   54.83R   19.08  
AFC_Wimbledon         9    8   -6      -1.87    33.29    -2.45    50.54     9.55   -17.30     0.01     0.04     1.15     0.25P   38.65R    9.23  
Shrewsbury            9    7   -2      -5.33     9.61    -2.20    59.64     9.81     1.11     0.13     0.60     8.67     2.62P   10.66R    1.34  
Gillingham            9    7   -7      -3.41    20.74    -3.74    51.38     9.89   -16.92     0.02     0.09     1.70     0.41P   35.72R    8.70  
Bradford              9    6   -8      -4.75    11.69    -5.81    52.80     9.80   -13.96     0.01     0.09     2.16     0.52P   30.08R    6.27  
Oxford_Utd            9    5  -10      -5.68     7.81    -7.14    50.06    10.04   -19.26     0.01     0.04     1.31     0.31P   41.56R   11.13  
Plymouth              9    3  -11      -7.29     2.67    -7.99    44.64     9.62   -24.57     0.00     0.01     0.30     0.08P   62.97R   24.44  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 September 2018, Yeovil 1 1 MK_Dons; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City      9   22  +11       7.27    96.08     7.44    81.58     9.90    24.14    21.62    51.21    82.17    58.96P    0.00R    0.00  
Exeter            9   19   +9       3.95    82.37     4.86    80.81    10.10    25.74    20.31    48.32    79.96    56.87P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County    9   19   -3       7.96    97.27    -1.11    65.35     9.71    -9.25     0.95     5.15    22.46     8.01P    0.48R    0.09  
Colchester        9   16  +12       1.23    61.04     8.39    77.54    10.00    28.12    13.11    36.87    70.80    46.42P    0.01R    0.00  
Carlisle          9   16   +0       3.22    77.77    -0.64    70.52    10.00     5.72     3.27    13.92    42.26    20.22P    0.17R    0.03  
Yeovil            9   15   +9       2.89    75.60     9.34    67.18    10.02    11.08     1.89     8.59    30.79    13.34P    0.35R    0.07  
Oldham            9   15   +6      -1.05    39.77     0.41    76.73    10.54    22.45    11.84    33.74    66.97    44.13P    0.03R    0.00  
Forest_Green      9   15   +6       3.79    81.93     7.73    62.40     9.86     0.89     0.57     3.22    16.11     5.44P    1.00R    0.20  
Swindon           9   15   +2       1.01    59.41    -0.52    71.66    10.25    10.82     4.70    17.52    47.14    24.67P    0.12R    0.02  
Stevenage         9   15   +2       1.00    59.49    -0.42    63.45     9.98    -1.29     0.83     4.36    18.87     7.40P    0.87R    0.14  
MK_Dons           9   14   +2      -0.21    48.25    -0.76    76.71    10.29    19.53    10.70    32.82    66.53    43.30P    0.02R    0.00  
Bury              9   13   +3      -1.37    37.22    -0.06    71.69    10.67    14.97     5.28    18.96    48.13    26.91P    0.16R    0.02  
Port_Vale         9   13   +2       0.73    57.50     2.01    62.97     9.76     1.32     0.60     3.52    17.42     6.53P    1.00R    0.18  
Tranmere          9   13   +2       1.88    68.18     3.61    60.28    10.20    -2.57     0.46     2.55    12.26     4.47P    2.32R    0.50  
Crawley_Town      9   13   +0       1.81    67.58     1.74    60.89     9.89    -4.19     0.36     2.32    12.61     4.20P    1.68R    0.37  
Mansfield         8   11   +3      -1.49    35.74     0.75    69.75    10.12    12.96     3.01    13.26    40.50    20.71P    0.18R    0.03  
Crewe             8    8   +0      -2.74    24.29     0.36    56.26    10.22    -6.23     0.16     1.04     6.70     2.23P    5.06R    1.26  
Cheltenham        9    8   -4      -3.26    21.96    -2.33    53.43     9.79   -12.07     0.05     0.43     3.38     1.01P    7.84R    2.23  
Cambridge_Utd     9    8   -8      -2.96    24.17    -6.04    54.89     9.69   -13.47     0.05     0.48     4.08     1.22P    6.15R    1.65  
Northampton       9    7   -5      -5.66     8.75    -5.49    57.43    10.52    -5.46     0.23     1.53     8.67     3.28P    4.51R    1.36  
Morecambe         9    6  -13      -3.05    22.47    -8.09    43.27     9.09   -32.53     0.00     0.01     0.18     0.05P   37.26R   14.15  
Grimsby           9    5  -11      -3.98    15.20    -6.14    43.28     9.23   -29.16     0.00     0.01     0.23     0.05P   37.11R   14.05  
Notts_County      9    3  -14      -7.70     2.20   -11.31    50.21    10.11   -20.09     0.02     0.18     1.76     0.57P   15.31R    5.28  
Macclesfield      9    2  -11      -5.77     4.79    -3.73    33.37     9.17   -41.45     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    78.40R   58.38  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 September 2018, Aldershot 0 1 Maidstone_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      13   29  +18       6.42    89.91    11.01    86.88     9.02    37.23    50.20    90.74    62.61P    0.00R    0.00  
Salford_City       13   27  +12       8.17    93.72    10.50    75.32     9.85    16.94     9.48    51.58    18.95P    0.34R    0.00  
Harrogate_Town     13   26  +11       7.54    92.08     9.93    73.82     9.93    14.92     7.38    45.27    15.63P    0.64R    0.01  
Wrexham            13   25  +10       5.00    84.01     6.79    75.40     8.77    17.98     7.81    52.33    19.59P    0.14R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     13   25   +6       8.13    94.45     7.35    69.15     8.88     4.81     1.95    25.00     6.17P    1.29R    0.03  
Gateshead          13   23   +6       3.36    74.57     3.20    72.70     8.98    12.84     4.46    40.23    13.22P    0.41R    0.01  
Sutton_United      13   23   +3       3.85    77.18     0.94    70.29     8.98     6.35     2.78    29.60     8.74P    0.90R    0.02  
Hartlepool         13   23   +2       4.03    78.36     0.22    67.37     8.85     1.32     1.37    19.22     5.18P    2.03R    0.04  
AFC_Fylde          13   22  +10       0.96    57.30     5.13    75.87     8.93    22.92     8.95    55.89    22.37P    0.15R    0.00  
Halifax            13   19   +3       2.82    71.92     4.98    60.29     8.71    -1.86     0.13     5.25     1.09P    9.67R    0.30  
Boreham_Wood       13   19   +1       0.06    50.97    -0.84    66.40     8.80     4.84     0.90    17.09     4.82P    2.32R    0.04  
Barnet             13   19   -3      -2.14    33.59    -8.04    71.12     9.25     7.21     3.35    33.58    12.61P    1.01R    0.01  
Maidenhead         13   17   +1      -0.20    49.00     1.95    59.75     9.05    -2.94     0.22     5.32     1.19P   11.54R    0.50  
Eastleigh          13   17   -6       1.50    62.66    -2.68    58.37     8.88   -11.45     0.12     3.37     0.71P   15.51R    0.95  
Barrow             13   15   -1      -2.27    33.06    -0.36    56.07     8.79    -6.69     0.05     2.12     0.48P   20.60R    1.02  
Ebbsfleet_United   13   15   -2      -2.32    32.85    -1.53    60.80     8.96    -0.78     0.24     6.45     1.70P    9.15R    0.36  
Bromley            13   13   -5      -4.19    21.12    -4.09    58.26     9.12    -5.18     0.12     3.87     0.93P   15.22R    0.94  
Maidstone_United   13   13   -7      -1.35    40.37    -2.15    49.81     8.50   -18.91     0.00     0.29     0.06P   47.61R    4.96  
Aldershot          13   13  -10      -4.30    19.95    -9.46    56.85     8.81   -11.51     0.07     2.35     0.57P   19.13R    1.04  
Chesterfield       13   11   -6      -8.61     4.61    -8.78    61.21     9.45     1.62     0.36     8.20     2.78P    9.49R    0.46  
Havant_&_Wville    13   11   -9      -1.61    39.48    -0.23    43.68     9.20   -30.23     0.00     0.12     0.02P   73.23R   18.93  
Dag_&_Red          13    9   -7      -9.31     2.77    -7.88    53.85     9.07    -7.39     0.03     1.38     0.37P   28.66R    2.26  
Dover_Athletic     13    7  -14      -9.48     2.20   -12.07    52.08     9.00   -13.98     0.01     0.74     0.20P   36.60R    3.60  
Braintree_Town     13    6  -13      -5.69    10.64    -3.88    34.62     8.56   -38.05     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.36R   64.53