Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 26 September 2018 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 23 September 2018, Arsenal 2 0 Everton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         6   18  +12       5.50    97.00     4.70    83.68     8.34    49.40    22.92    57.24    77.82    89.82    99.29     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          6   16  +16       1.09    65.92     2.63    90.18     7.54    72.57    62.57    85.29    94.42    98.19    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           6   16  +10       3.25    86.13     2.61    76.14     8.53    35.84     5.63    20.67    43.01    66.55    95.49     0.00     0.00  
Watford           6   13   +5       5.58    95.26     6.35    51.00     8.61    -7.16     0.00     0.04     0.23     0.87     8.93     2.06R    0.20  
Tottenham         6   12   +5       0.53    54.63    -0.41    77.18     8.39    40.34     6.53    24.18    49.73    72.02    96.51     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           6   12   +3       1.75    69.03    -0.32    70.32     8.90    26.76     1.39     7.48    19.75    38.86    84.94     0.00R    0.00  
Man_Utd           6   10   +0      -1.27    34.20    -4.51    68.91     8.53    22.99     0.94     4.98    14.35    31.02    82.71     0.01R    0.00  
Bournemouth       6   10   -1       2.39    76.82     0.37    46.42     8.63   -16.89     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.28     3.61     6.78R    0.73  
Leicester         6    9   +1       0.68    58.27     1.13    52.43     9.05    -2.35     0.01     0.09     0.44     1.49    13.02     1.99R    0.16  
Wolverhampton     6    9   +0       2.77    80.84     3.39    46.77     8.96   -10.95     0.00     0.01     0.09     0.35     4.36     6.76R    0.77  
Crystal_Palace    6    7   -2      -0.85    40.70    -1.35    43.75     8.44   -14.71     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.09     1.86    10.79R    1.25  
Everton           6    6   -3      -2.75    20.14    -3.49    45.26     8.64   -12.67     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.20     2.75     8.62R    1.04  
Brighton          6    5   -3      -0.71    43.61     1.16    40.62     8.34   -17.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.85    19.22R    3.17  
Southampton       6    5   -3      -2.29    24.86    -1.35    42.66     8.45   -13.92     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.08     1.48    13.46R    1.96  
Fulham            6    5   -5      -0.88    40.70     0.66    38.29     8.98   -26.04     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.68    30.52R    7.12  
Burnley           6    4   -3      -3.75    12.45    -2.47    41.05     8.26   -14.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.79    17.16R    2.61  
West_Ham          6    4   -6      -1.89    28.68    -1.38    41.31     8.63   -19.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.04    18.48R    3.08  
Newcastle         6    2   -4      -3.87     9.58    -0.01    42.97     8.64    -9.01     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     1.72    12.67R    1.82  
Cardiff           6    2  -11      -2.66    18.14    -4.30    30.36     8.20   -38.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    66.89R   26.19  
Huddersfield      6    2  -11      -2.32    21.00    -3.42    26.11     7.32   -44.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.59R   49.91  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 September 2018, Aston_Villa 1 2 Sheff_Wed; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United     9   18  +12       4.01    83.70     9.38    74.79    10.03    21.08     8.74    18.73    55.17    27.03P    0.14R    0.01  
Middlesbrough    9   18   +8       2.80    75.24     3.85    81.27     9.56    26.38    21.74    39.65    78.98    51.64P    0.01R    0.00  
West_Brom        9   17  +10       0.09    50.00     2.75    83.02    10.34    33.79    31.07    48.86    81.97    59.33P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        9   16   +4       2.65    73.51     2.52    68.63     9.94     6.69     2.56     6.51    30.44    11.50P    0.97R    0.12  
Wigan            9   16   +3       1.57    64.30    -0.18    72.41    10.31    11.55     5.82    13.17    44.28    20.85P    0.50R    0.05  
Derby            9   16   +3       0.89    57.91    -1.09    73.33     9.83    13.10     6.34    14.31    48.15    23.15P    0.22R    0.03  
Brentford        9   15   +6       1.31    62.19     3.90    73.15    10.11    17.25     6.73    14.99    48.92    23.37P    0.36R    0.03  
Bristol_City     9   14   +3       1.63    65.82     3.04    68.70    10.09     8.81     2.61     6.89    31.17    12.05P    1.20R    0.18  
Nott'm_Forest    9   14   +2       2.47    73.67     3.32    60.56     9.70    -4.37     0.34     1.03     9.30     2.51P    5.79R    0.95  
Sheff_Wed        9   14   +0       1.57    65.21    -0.07    66.20     9.88     2.13     1.61     4.22    22.26     7.95P    1.81R    0.23  
Norwich          9   14   +0       2.06    69.09     0.65    64.41     9.89    -0.97     0.97     2.86    17.55     5.70P    2.78R    0.43  
Blackburn        9   14   +0       2.06    69.34     0.64    65.28    10.30     0.94     1.52     3.97    20.49     7.33P    2.71R    0.43  
Aston_Villa      9   13   +1      -1.77    33.62    -2.70    70.29     9.93    10.95     3.71     8.96    36.57    16.34P    0.65R    0.06  
Swansea          9   13   +1      -0.67    43.94    -1.06    71.49    10.05    12.55     4.43    10.74    41.39    19.43P    0.53R    0.05  
Bolton           9   12   -3       2.91    78.00     2.02    48.76     9.03   -24.10     0.01     0.02     0.56     0.07P   36.59R   11.76  
QPR              9   10   -8      -0.49    46.37    -4.96    50.46     9.53   -24.74     0.03     0.08     1.19     0.26P   30.93R    9.85  
Birmingham       9    9   -1      -0.26    49.27     3.28    49.28     9.12   -15.66     0.01     0.03     0.60     0.11P   33.18R   10.85  
Stoke            9    9   -4      -3.72    19.30    -4.48    65.11    10.61     4.23     1.60     4.26    21.23     8.67P    3.23R    0.59  
Rotherham        9    9   -8       0.79    60.09    -1.11    44.96     9.66   -31.87     0.00     0.02     0.35     0.09P   53.51R   25.59  
Reading          9    8   -1      -3.12    23.12     1.00    50.65     9.61   -14.20     0.02     0.09     1.27     0.32P   28.73R    9.47  
Hull             9    7   -7      -4.39    14.51    -5.28    54.77    10.01   -12.60     0.10     0.31     3.43     1.02P   17.23R    4.57  
Millwall         9    6   -6      -4.50    13.09    -3.43    53.84     9.58    -9.99     0.03     0.17     2.41     0.68P   18.34R    4.77  
Ipswich          9    5   -6      -6.31     5.38    -4.46    48.58     9.46   -16.45     0.00     0.02     0.66     0.16P   36.34R   12.72  
Preston          9    5   -9      -6.39     4.80    -7.52    52.09     9.73   -14.50     0.02     0.11     1.69     0.45P   24.23R    7.27  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 September 2018, Accrington_Stanley 2 1 AFC_Wimbledon; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Peterborough          9   22  +13       6.71    94.33     8.41    84.46    10.38    31.13    25.54    46.23    85.66    56.50P    0.03R    0.00  
Portsmouth            9   21  +10       6.96    95.14     7.49    77.16    10.15    17.89     7.98    19.37    64.20    29.72P    0.22R    0.01  
Sunderland            9   18  +10       1.22    60.27     3.10    85.94    10.55    36.54    31.98    52.77    88.26    64.56P    0.02R    0.00  
Doncaster             9   18   +8       4.76    86.77     6.66    72.66    10.02    13.81     3.60     9.84    47.21    18.30P    0.62R    0.04  
Walsall               9   18   +3       5.75    91.37     3.17    67.44     9.99     0.93     1.12     3.74    26.68     8.02P    2.53R    0.15  
Charlton              9   17   +4       3.39    79.23     2.15    73.36    10.12    12.34     3.72    10.79    49.60    20.31P    0.59R    0.01  
Barnsley              8   15  +10      -0.13    47.43     3.73    82.30    10.87    32.71    20.88    39.14    79.70    52.94P    0.09R    0.01  
Blackpool             9   14   +3       0.73    57.32     1.55    64.54     9.90     3.11     0.56     2.05    18.97     5.79P    4.27R    0.38  
Accrington_Stanley    9   14   +1       2.63    73.73     2.39    58.98    10.37    -7.81     0.20     0.85     8.73     2.34P   14.03R    2.05  
Fleetwood_Town        9   13   +6      -0.19    48.42     4.79    67.30    10.04    11.28     1.16     3.87    28.12     9.73P    2.50R    0.18  
Scunthorpe            9   13   -5      -0.12    48.99    -6.05    68.45    10.45     1.85     1.55     4.95    31.06    11.21P    2.69R    0.22  
Luton                 9   12   +0       0.23    53.18     0.87    63.78    10.61     1.49     0.64     2.25    18.33     5.90P    6.48R    0.75  
Coventry              9   11   -3       0.48    55.94    -0.57    52.03     9.78   -16.27     0.01     0.08     2.02     0.43P   33.37R    7.02  
Rochdale              9   11   -6       0.42    55.43    -2.98    59.28    10.20   -10.20     0.16     0.66     8.45     2.15P   13.50R    1.99  
Burton_Albion         8   10   -1      -1.29    37.92    -1.44    61.50    10.73    -1.78     0.43     1.53    13.80     4.36P    9.55R    1.36  
Southend              9   10   -3      -1.83    33.91    -2.23    59.75    10.01    -4.79     0.19     0.69     8.98     2.42P   11.38R    1.48  
Bristol_Rovers        9    8   -2      -3.94    17.70    -1.29    54.29    10.06    -9.08     0.04     0.19     3.49     0.85P   25.19R    4.82  
Wycombe               9    8   -4      -1.71    35.42    -0.08    46.79    10.03   -22.81     0.01     0.03     0.71     0.15P   54.49R   18.53  
AFC_Wimbledon         9    8   -6      -1.90    33.27    -2.50    50.72     9.53   -17.04     0.01     0.03     1.21     0.23P   37.99R    8.87  
Shrewsbury            9    7   -2      -5.38     9.63    -2.24    59.68     9.87     1.18     0.17     0.69     8.82     2.73P   10.79R    1.37  
Gillingham            9    7   -7      -3.52    19.88    -3.94    51.69     9.90   -16.51     0.02     0.09     1.97     0.44P   34.74R    8.25  
Bradford              9    6   -8      -4.85    11.54    -5.92    53.05     9.95   -13.65     0.02     0.10     2.42     0.61P   29.58R    6.33  
Oxford_Utd            9    5  -10      -5.63     7.92    -7.09    49.85    10.08   -19.59     0.01     0.06     1.34     0.29P   42.11R   11.54  
Plymouth              9    3  -11      -7.26     2.57    -7.94    44.53     9.57   -24.73     0.00     0.01     0.28     0.04P   63.24R   24.64  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 September 2018, Bury 0 1 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City      9   22  +11       7.22    96.07     7.38    81.50     9.99    24.04    21.36    50.71    81.50    58.38P    0.00R    0.00  
Exeter            9   19   +9       3.98    82.57     4.93    80.73    10.12    25.66    19.71    48.12    79.31    56.58P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County    9   19   -3       7.94    97.24    -1.16    65.34     9.71    -9.25     0.93     5.02    22.25     7.79P    0.53R    0.09  
Colchester        9   16  +12       1.26    61.36     8.44    77.46    10.02    28.06    12.82    36.38    70.66    46.10P    0.01R    0.00  
Carlisle          9   16   +0       3.24    77.91    -0.65    70.57    10.05     5.74     3.36    13.96    41.92    20.34P    0.15R    0.02  
Oldham            9   15   +6      -1.01    40.07     0.51    76.65    10.51    22.24    11.45    33.32    66.36    43.39P    0.02R    0.00  
Forest_Green      9   15   +6       3.73    81.54     7.64    62.56     9.86     1.11     0.59     3.31    16.57     5.71P    1.07R    0.23  
Swindon           9   15   +2       1.06    59.98    -0.48    71.66    10.24    10.84     4.38    17.07    47.40    24.30P    0.14R    0.04  
Stevenage         9   15   +2       1.00    59.35    -0.43    63.47     9.96    -1.34     0.74     4.22    18.87     7.28P    0.85R    0.15  
Yeovil            8   14   +9       3.09    78.42     9.10    67.35    10.27    10.86     2.17     9.35    31.69    14.06P    0.37R    0.08  
Bury              9   13   +3      -1.36    37.57     0.00    71.51    10.78    14.70     5.26    18.25    47.24    26.34P    0.19R    0.03  
Port_Vale         9   13   +2       0.75    57.65     2.03    62.95     9.74     1.27     0.53     3.42    16.95     6.24P    0.96R    0.18  
Tranmere          9   13   +2       1.83    67.75     3.59    60.33    10.16    -2.51     0.41     2.46    12.36     4.54P    2.18R    0.53  
MK_Dons           8   13   +2       0.27    52.61    -0.62    77.45    10.59    20.10    12.48    35.60    68.66    45.94P    0.03R    0.01  
Crawley_Town      9   13   +0       1.89    68.26     1.84    60.63     9.85    -4.61     0.33     2.20    11.92     4.07P    1.80R    0.39  
Mansfield         8   11   +3      -1.47    35.91     0.77    69.85    10.10    13.04     2.93    12.91    40.71    20.50P    0.18R    0.03  
Crewe             8    8   +0      -2.77    24.28     0.31    56.30    10.36    -6.11     0.19     1.15     6.89     2.33P    5.05R    1.35  
Cheltenham        9    8   -4      -3.15    22.86    -2.23    53.12     9.75   -12.45     0.04     0.33     2.98     0.81P    8.36R    2.23  
Cambridge_Utd     9    8   -8      -3.04    23.69    -6.13    55.23     9.75   -12.99     0.07     0.54     4.55     1.37P    5.83R    1.54  
Northampton       9    7   -5      -5.76     8.63    -5.64    57.86    10.45    -4.86     0.24     1.49     8.99     3.34P    4.05R    1.07  
Morecambe         9    6  -13      -3.12    21.98    -8.21    43.56     9.18   -32.10     0.00     0.01     0.21     0.05P   36.04R   13.37  
Grimsby           9    5  -11      -3.95    15.40    -6.07    43.11     9.27   -29.39     0.00     0.01     0.18     0.03P   37.85R   14.18  
Notts_County      9    3  -14      -7.70     2.21   -11.25    50.20    10.07   -20.11     0.01     0.18     1.82     0.51P   15.10R    4.98  
Macclesfield      9    2  -11      -5.76     4.88    -3.69    33.10     9.16   -41.94     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   79.22R   59.50  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 September 2018, Aldershot 2 0 Dover_Athletic; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      12   26  +14       6.04    89.26     8.86    84.33     9.11    31.79    39.52    84.78    52.77P    0.00R    0.00  
Harrogate_Town     12   25  +11       7.88    93.67     9.92    74.04    10.26    14.59     9.47    45.61    17.05P    0.71R    0.02  
Wrexham            12   24  +10       5.26    86.33     6.63    75.95     8.93    18.29     9.96    54.15    21.51P    0.14R    0.00  
Salford_City       12   24   +9       7.48    92.77     8.89    71.85    10.15    11.18     6.24    37.13    12.52P    1.12R    0.03  
Hartlepool         12   23   +5       4.74    83.39     2.26    69.82     9.08     5.89     3.05    27.64     8.43P    0.96R    0.02  
Solihull_Moors     12   22   +4       6.93    92.28     5.99    66.55     9.16     1.37     1.42    17.24     4.16P    2.66R    0.09  
Sutton_United      12   22   +3       4.28    80.91     1.06    71.10     9.14     7.05     3.97    32.11    10.24P    0.83R    0.01  
AFC_Fylde          12   21  +10       1.40    61.11     5.16    76.39     9.20    23.21    11.82    57.21    24.68P    0.17R    0.00  
Gateshead          12   20   +5       1.95    65.59     2.58    70.43     9.15    10.97     3.58    30.79    10.23P    0.88R    0.02  
Boreham_Wood       12   19   +2       1.37    61.32     0.10    68.15     9.01     6.38     1.91    22.01     6.88P    1.59R    0.04  
Halifax            12   18   +3       3.02    74.46     4.78    60.49     8.96    -2.30     0.30     5.76     1.35P    9.13R    0.37  
Barnet             12   18   -3      -1.24    40.07    -7.13    73.23     9.44     9.85     6.24    41.49    17.20P    0.55R    0.01  
Barrow             12   15   +0      -1.21    40.57     0.14    57.99     9.06    -4.89     0.15     3.60     0.84P   14.88R    0.96  
Ebbsfleet_United   12   15   -1      -0.98    42.67    -0.61    63.28     9.17     1.80     0.56    10.36     2.86P    5.45R    0.25  
Maidenhead         12   14   -1      -1.75    36.61     0.10    56.30     9.11    -7.82     0.11     2.56     0.58P   19.76R    1.57  
Eastleigh          12   14   -7       0.07    51.79    -3.30    55.88     8.97   -13.79     0.08     1.94     0.44P   21.91R    1.93  
Aldershot          12   13   -9      -2.75    29.05    -8.17    59.30     8.99    -8.94     0.18     4.24     1.06P   12.29R    0.68  
Chesterfield       12   11   -4      -7.32     6.91    -6.85    65.10     9.66     7.27     1.22    15.83     5.74P    4.49R    0.23  
Bromley            12   10   -6      -5.98    10.71    -5.34    55.52     9.26    -7.95     0.06     2.18     0.59P   22.73R    2.11  
Maidstone_United   12   10   -8      -3.06    26.45    -3.18    47.00     8.63   -21.90     0.00     0.13     0.02P   58.99R   10.77  
Havant_&_Wville    12   10   -9      -1.62    38.52    -0.93    42.71     9.40   -32.59     0.00     0.11     0.03P   74.90R   25.84  
Dag_&_Red          12    9   -5      -8.28     3.88    -6.38    56.09     9.30    -4.02     0.11     2.45     0.68P   20.33R    1.83  
Braintree_Town     12    6   -9      -5.69     9.77    -2.24    37.69     8.93   -30.42     0.00     0.01     0.00P   88.29R   48.28  
Dover_Athletic     12    6  -14      -9.26     1.95   -12.33    51.74     9.17   -15.02     0.02     0.68     0.16P   37.22R    4.96