Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 22 September 2018 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 September 2018, Brighton 1 2 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         6   18  +12       5.42    96.74     4.48    83.93     8.39    50.11    22.84    55.82    77.09    90.01    99.31     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          6   16  +16       1.09    65.62     2.56    90.15     7.60    72.95    60.34    83.60    93.61    97.96    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           5   15  +10       4.12    93.56     3.24    78.03     8.88    38.88     8.43    26.82    50.40    72.91    96.53     0.00     0.00  
Watford           6   13   +5       5.56    95.23     6.36    50.99     8.67    -7.34     0.00     0.02     0.19     0.83     8.95     2.07R    0.15  
Tottenham         6   12   +5       0.47    53.97    -0.53    77.25     8.39    40.69     6.19    22.85    47.53    71.18    96.41     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd           6   10   +0      -1.30    33.88    -4.57    69.18     8.62    23.54     0.97     4.84    14.32    30.94    82.82     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth       6   10   -1       2.37    76.62     0.37    46.47     8.67   -16.86     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.23     3.68     6.57R    0.68  
Leicester         6    9   +1       0.68    58.15     1.13    52.68     9.14    -2.02     0.01     0.06     0.37     1.54    13.64     1.73R    0.13  
Arsenal           5    9   +1       0.86    60.22    -1.06    69.33     9.21    25.98     1.23     5.95    16.25    33.33    81.34     0.01R    0.00  
Wolverhampton     6    9   +0       2.73    80.60     3.38    46.88     9.11   -10.89     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.40     4.62     6.65R    0.81  
Crystal_Palace    6    7   -2      -0.79    41.42    -1.20    43.42     8.39   -15.58     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.09     1.68    11.30R    1.30  
Everton           5    6   -1      -2.09    24.74    -2.87    46.39     9.08   -11.50     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.31     4.47     7.34R    0.89  
Brighton          6    5   -3      -0.64    44.49     1.31    40.39     8.41   -18.07     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.69    19.68R    3.27  
Southampton       6    5   -3      -2.37    24.26    -1.44    43.05     8.52   -13.47     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.08     1.73    12.15R    1.75  
Fulham            6    5   -5      -0.86    41.22     0.69    38.14     9.09   -26.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.68    30.91R    7.31  
Burnley           6    4   -3      -3.70    12.83    -2.39    41.07     8.38   -14.61     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.89    16.76R    2.61  
West_Ham          5    3   -6      -1.99    23.96    -2.06    40.42     8.90   -22.12     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.98    21.69R    4.18  
Newcastle         6    2   -4      -3.91     9.32     0.00    43.00     8.60    -9.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.60    12.01R    1.62  
Cardiff           6    2  -11      -2.57    19.02    -4.02    29.93     8.22   -39.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    68.14R   27.75  
Huddersfield      6    2  -11      -2.35    20.59    -3.39    26.33     7.42   -44.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.99R   47.53  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 September 2018, Aston_Villa 1 2 Sheff_Wed; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United     9   18  +12       3.97    83.22     9.33    75.02    10.07    21.45     9.21    19.55    56.12    27.75P    0.17R    0.01  
Middlesbrough    9   18   +8       2.82    75.38     3.86    81.24     9.61    26.34    21.63    39.67    78.64    51.60P    0.01R    0.00  
West_Brom        9   17  +10       0.14    50.41     2.87    82.81    10.40    33.43    30.92    48.44    81.39    59.34P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        9   16   +4       2.57    72.93     2.42    68.97    10.00     7.16     2.86     7.13    31.87    12.19P    1.01R    0.13  
Wigan            9   16   +3       1.67    65.18    -0.02    72.00    10.26    10.96     5.49    12.41    43.27    19.96P    0.53R    0.07  
Derby            9   16   +3       0.90    57.91    -1.05    73.33     9.83    13.11     6.27    14.30    48.14    23.35P    0.21R    0.02  
Brentford        9   15   +6       1.25    61.93     3.79    73.20    10.08    17.42     6.71    14.84    48.88    22.89P    0.31R    0.02  
Bristol_City     9   14   +3       1.68    65.99     3.11    68.24    10.14     8.13     2.44     6.31    29.78    11.27P    1.34R    0.21  
Nott'm_Forest    9   14   +2       2.51    73.72     3.34    60.40     9.76    -4.58     0.34     1.10     9.05     2.50P    6.21R    1.13  
Sheff_Wed        9   14   +0       1.55    64.96    -0.12    66.31     9.88     2.34     1.66     4.37    22.68     8.23P    1.69R    0.29  
Norwich          9   14   +0       2.08    69.46     0.67    64.53     9.91    -0.79     0.92     2.82    17.83     5.76P    2.81R    0.44  
Blackburn        9   14   +0       2.10    69.45     0.70    65.22    10.37     0.84     1.58     4.05    20.54     7.43P    2.82R    0.49  
Aston_Villa      9   13   +1      -1.71    33.84    -2.63    70.22     9.79    10.79     3.48     8.56    36.28    15.94P    0.53R    0.06  
Swansea          9   13   +1      -0.73    43.52    -1.15    71.69    10.11    12.86     4.84    11.53    42.18    20.16P    0.50R    0.07  
Bolton           9   12   -3       2.92    78.35     2.04    48.69     9.11   -24.33     0.01     0.02     0.59     0.09P   36.99R   12.46  
QPR              9   10   -8      -0.53    45.90    -5.05    50.40     9.40   -24.74     0.02     0.06     1.05     0.21P   30.94R    9.71  
Birmingham       9    9   -1      -0.25    49.25     3.29    49.48     9.16   -15.44     0.01     0.03     0.75     0.14P   32.49R   10.43  
Stoke            9    9   -4      -3.73    19.30    -4.52    65.21    10.57     4.40     1.44     4.04    21.36     8.59P    3.24R    0.65  
Rotherham        9    9   -8       0.75    59.67    -1.11    45.11     9.63   -31.75     0.00     0.01     0.33     0.06P   53.49R   25.24  
Reading          9    8   -1      -3.19    22.40     0.90    50.79     9.65   -13.94     0.03     0.13     1.33     0.36P   28.41R    9.03  
Hull             9    7   -7      -4.36    14.56    -5.22    54.51     9.95   -12.98     0.07     0.30     3.29     0.96P   17.73R    4.83  
Millwall         9    6   -6      -4.47    13.09    -3.36    53.66     9.58   -10.24     0.04     0.16     2.28     0.60P   18.90R    5.02  
Ipswich          9    5   -6      -6.32     5.44    -4.48    48.57     9.42   -16.41     0.01     0.04     0.61     0.16P   36.29R   12.87  
Preston          9    5   -9      -6.43     4.83    -7.61    52.39     9.70   -14.00     0.05     0.13     1.76     0.44P   23.35R    6.81  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 September 2018, Accrington_Stanley 2 1 AFC_Wimbledon; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Peterborough          9   22  +13       6.68    94.41     8.38    84.37    10.35    30.94    25.02    45.88    85.70    56.26P    0.02R    0.00  
Portsmouth            9   21  +10       7.00    95.16     7.54    76.99    10.23    17.68     8.11    19.39    63.94    29.71P    0.22R    0.01  
Sunderland            9   18  +10       1.17    59.72     3.04    85.97    10.61    36.65    32.69    53.47    88.16    64.88P    0.03R    0.00  
Doncaster             9   18   +8       4.77    87.00     6.68    72.53     9.92    13.62     3.21     9.32    46.78    17.85P    0.67R    0.04  
Walsall               9   18   +3       5.73    91.16     3.14    67.41    10.10     0.94     1.16     3.82    27.11     8.31P    2.70R    0.19  
Charlton              9   17   +4       3.35    78.78     2.13    73.29    10.03    12.21     3.93    10.79    49.30    20.28P    0.57R    0.02  
Barnsley              8   15  +10      -0.09    47.83     3.80    82.25    10.83    32.64    20.59    39.30    79.85    52.69P    0.10R    0.01  
Blackpool             9   14   +3       0.79    57.73     1.60    64.44     9.87     2.96     0.59     2.09    18.70     5.83P    4.34R    0.38  
Accrington_Stanley    9   14   +1       2.60    73.04     2.33    59.07    10.42    -7.67     0.26     0.92     8.87     2.44P   13.91R    2.03  
Fleetwood_Town        9   13   +6      -0.21    48.48     4.76    67.28    10.06    11.20     1.23     4.02    27.98     9.86P    2.44R    0.19  
Scunthorpe            9   13   -5      -0.01    50.23    -5.89    68.24    10.34     1.56     1.44     4.60    30.28    10.71P    2.62R    0.27  
Luton                 9   12   +0       0.22    52.93     0.86    63.83    10.58     1.60     0.70     2.21    18.68     5.97P    6.37R    0.74  
Coventry              9   11   -3       0.37    54.74    -0.77    52.49     9.89   -15.54     0.05     0.13     2.36     0.52P   31.98R    6.51  
Rochdale              9   11   -6       0.34    54.61    -3.07    59.41    10.20    -9.99     0.15     0.66     8.87     2.22P   13.07R    1.87  
Burton_Albion         8   10   -1      -1.26    38.31    -1.43    61.66    10.78    -1.57     0.43     1.58    14.28     4.58P    9.78R    1.33  
Southend              9   10   -3      -1.78    34.46    -2.19    59.52    10.08    -5.15     0.18     0.73     8.86     2.51P   12.06R    1.58  
Bristol_Rovers        9    8   -2      -3.95    17.70    -1.31    54.36    10.01    -8.91     0.04     0.18     3.66     0.90P   24.89R    4.64  
Wycombe               9    8   -4      -1.76    34.94    -0.12    46.85    10.01   -22.77     0.00     0.03     0.68     0.17P   54.37R   18.42  
AFC_Wimbledon         9    8   -6      -1.95    32.40    -2.57    50.90     9.54   -16.76     0.01     0.06     1.28     0.28P   37.43R    8.53  
Shrewsbury            9    7   -2      -5.36     9.34    -2.23    59.65     9.78     1.17     0.14     0.58     8.69     2.64P   10.66R    1.35  
Gillingham            9    7   -7      -3.41    20.64    -3.78    51.51     9.89   -16.73     0.02     0.08     1.76     0.38P   35.46R    8.31  
Bradford              9    6   -8      -4.80    11.70    -5.86    52.78     9.98   -13.99     0.02     0.11     2.40     0.56P   30.81R    6.59  
Oxford_Utd            9    5  -10      -5.68     7.78    -7.15    50.19    10.09   -19.04     0.01     0.06     1.51     0.38P   41.00R   11.11  
Plymouth              9    3  -11      -7.22     2.68    -7.88    44.31     9.64   -25.06     0.00     0.01     0.30     0.08P   64.49R   25.88  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 September 2018, Bury 0 1 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City      9   22  +11       7.29    96.29     7.48    81.38     9.98    23.86    20.92    49.79    81.03    57.74P    0.00R    0.00  
Exeter            9   19   +9       3.98    82.58     4.94    80.57    10.17    25.35    19.30    47.52    78.96    56.05P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County    9   19   -3       8.01    97.22    -1.07    65.20     9.79    -9.45     0.92     5.08    22.01     7.92P    0.57R    0.08  
Colchester        9   16  +12       1.27    61.51     8.43    77.50    10.10    28.14    13.03    36.56    70.34    45.92P    0.02R    0.01  
Carlisle          9   16   +0       3.32    78.60    -0.52    70.31     9.99     5.42     3.00    13.18    40.85    19.36P    0.15R    0.02  
Oldham            9   15   +6      -1.03    39.85     0.46    76.83    10.55    22.49    12.23    33.87    66.61    44.15P    0.02R    0.00  
Forest_Green      9   15   +6       3.77    81.53     7.73    62.49     9.83     1.03     0.51     3.24    16.17     5.60P    1.04R    0.19  
Swindon           9   15   +2       1.04    59.52    -0.49    71.56    10.27    10.68     4.38    17.07    46.69    24.28P    0.13R    0.04  
Stevenage         9   15   +2       1.11    60.44    -0.28    63.19     9.94    -1.72     0.67     3.76    18.08     6.71P    0.84R    0.12  
Yeovil            8   14   +9       3.00    77.74     8.97    67.75    10.26    11.40     2.23     9.96    33.25    14.79P    0.32R    0.07  
Bury              9   13   +3      -1.41    37.15    -0.09    71.80    10.75    15.17     5.28    19.02    48.65    27.21P    0.15R    0.03  
Port_Vale         9   13   +2       0.75    57.83     2.04    63.01     9.78     1.35     0.61     3.54    17.21     6.45P    1.01R    0.16  
Tranmere          9   13   +2       1.85    67.83     3.59    60.27    10.25    -2.60     0.42     2.41    12.31     4.38P    2.40R    0.55  
MK_Dons           8   13   +2       0.28    52.69    -0.59    77.50    10.48    20.07    12.34    35.44    68.98    45.76P    0.04R    0.01  
Crawley_Town      9   13   +0       1.78    67.17     1.68    60.91     9.88    -4.14     0.37     2.31    12.55     4.26P    1.70R    0.34  
Mansfield         8   11   +3      -1.54    35.20     0.67    69.89    10.24    13.19     3.22    13.39    40.88    20.88P    0.19R    0.02  
Crewe             8    8   +0      -2.83    23.75     0.26    56.44    10.31    -5.87     0.18     1.16     7.04     2.35P    4.78R    1.15  
Cheltenham        9    8   -4      -3.28    21.88    -2.38    53.40     9.73   -12.09     0.03     0.35     3.19     0.91P    7.62R    1.95  
Cambridge_Utd     9    8   -8      -2.98    24.07    -6.07    55.11     9.76   -13.21     0.07     0.54     4.24     1.28P    5.95R    1.71  
Northampton       9    7   -5      -5.73     8.66    -5.58    57.62    10.56    -5.23     0.28     1.62     8.88     3.41P    4.29R    1.20  
Morecambe         9    6  -13      -3.13    21.64    -8.24    43.61     9.16   -31.96     0.00     0.01     0.20     0.04P   35.70R   12.79  
Grimsby           9    5  -11      -3.92    15.42    -6.03    43.00     9.17   -29.57     0.00     0.01     0.18     0.03P   37.91R   14.23  
Notts_County      9    3  -14      -7.70     2.19   -11.30    50.11    10.03   -20.20     0.02     0.17     1.70     0.51P   15.18R    5.14  
Macclesfield      9    2  -11      -5.67     4.95    -3.60    32.95     9.06   -42.09     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   79.99R   60.19  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 September 2018, Sutton_United 0 4 Boreham_Wood; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Harrogate_Town     11   25  +14       8.27    95.88    11.37    77.64    10.44    21.13    17.63    60.27    26.96P    0.28R    0.01  
Wrexham            11   24  +13       6.25    91.72     9.19    78.59     9.02    23.08    16.69    65.99    30.04P    0.04R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient      11   23  +11       5.08    86.30     6.84    80.52     9.42    25.48    24.22    72.44    37.21P    0.07R    0.00  
Salford_City       11   21   +7       6.45    91.16     7.72    68.20    10.28     6.40     3.59    25.27     7.86P    2.83R    0.12  
AFC_Fylde          11   20  +10       1.52    62.54     4.88    76.68     9.44    23.17    13.24    58.01    25.47P    0.20R    0.00  
Hartlepool         11   20   +4       3.28    75.70     1.56    67.67     9.21     4.22     2.07    21.22     6.16P    1.84R    0.07  
Boreham_Wood       11   19   +4       2.15    68.13     1.30    70.62     9.23     9.94     3.90    31.40    10.66P    0.85R    0.01  
Sutton_United      11   19   +0       3.27    75.68    -1.03    67.46     9.38     1.22     1.90    20.57     5.76P    2.45R    0.04  
Solihull_Moors     11   19   -1       6.26    91.62     2.35    62.30     9.20    -7.24     0.48     8.34     1.66P    7.25R    0.36  
Halifax            11   18   +4       4.18    82.37     5.45    61.89     9.10    -1.07     0.47     7.95     1.79P    7.11R    0.34  
Gateshead          11   17   +2       0.74    56.52     0.18    66.83     9.34     5.13     1.89    19.00     5.65P    2.64R    0.08  
Barnet             11   17   -3      -0.50    45.69    -6.62    74.13     9.66    10.64     8.48    45.65    19.89P    0.52R    0.01  
Maidenhead         11   14   +1      -0.86    43.22     1.34    58.47     9.45    -4.51     0.23     4.70     1.13P   14.49R    1.07  
Ebbsfleet_United   11   14   -1      -0.09    50.30     0.18    64.51     9.37     3.13     0.98    13.17     3.67P    4.56R    0.19  
Barrow             11   12   -2      -2.34    30.93    -1.14    55.28     9.26    -8.46     0.09     2.21     0.54P   23.16R    2.08  
Chesterfield       11   11   -1      -6.39     8.66    -4.51    68.77     9.87    13.69     3.44    27.37    11.26P    2.17R    0.09  
Eastleigh          11   11   -8      -1.40    39.27    -4.04    54.23     9.31   -14.84     0.04     1.68     0.32P   28.14R    3.28  
Bromley            11   10   -1      -5.59    11.44    -1.87    59.40     9.48     1.12     0.25     5.70     1.52P   12.07R    0.85  
Aldershot          11   10  -11      -3.85    20.14    -9.42    57.44     9.24   -11.29     0.10     3.10     0.78P   17.59R    1.48  
Dag_&_Red          11    9   -4      -7.09     5.89    -5.62    57.98     9.47    -2.31     0.24     4.18     1.19P   15.73R    1.26  
Havant_&_Wville    11    9   -9      -1.65    38.06    -1.50    41.85     9.68   -34.73     0.00     0.11     0.02P   76.95R   30.28  
Maidstone_United   11    7   -9      -4.64    14.34    -4.10    44.77     8.94   -23.82     0.00     0.08     0.03P   67.59R   17.77  
Braintree_Town     11    6   -8      -4.50    14.95    -1.48    39.96     9.40   -28.07     0.00     0.05     0.01P   82.08R   37.04  
Dover_Athletic     11    6  -12      -8.36     2.58   -11.03    53.79     9.49   -12.01     0.05     1.54     0.42P   29.39R    3.58