Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 21 September 2018 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 17 September 2018, Southampton 2 2 Brighton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea           5   15  +10       4.25    93.89     3.55    78.47     8.91    39.75    11.32    31.52    53.86    73.62    96.45     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         5   15   +9       4.86    95.96     3.31    82.32     8.69    46.79    21.81    50.07    71.25    85.64    98.64     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          5   13  +11       0.79    62.03     0.37    88.60     7.94    67.05    55.85    79.04    90.68    96.59    99.85     0.00     0.00  
Watford           5   12   +5       5.95    97.28     6.42    51.32     9.00    -7.53     0.01     0.07     0.33     1.01     9.50     2.35R    0.25  
Bournemouth       5   10   +3       3.31    86.74     3.62    50.08     9.09    -8.43     0.00     0.06     0.24     0.83     7.93     3.36R    0.37  
Tottenham         5    9   +4      -0.42    42.39    -0.43    76.37     8.62    40.66     7.05    22.93    44.49    66.76    94.99     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           5    9   +1       0.88    60.16    -1.03    69.37     9.31    26.12     1.69     7.29    17.44    33.61    80.04     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd           5    9   +0      -0.35    43.40    -3.73    70.99     8.86    25.84     2.26     8.89    21.07    39.59    85.53     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton     5    8   +0       2.47    80.59     2.43    44.95     9.21   -14.70     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.30     3.11    10.29R    1.61  
Everton           5    6   -1      -2.06    25.01    -2.78    46.57     9.05   -11.08     0.00     0.03     0.11     0.41     4.15     7.03R    0.92  
Leicester         5    6   -1      -0.02    50.20     0.59    51.30     9.31    -3.54     0.00     0.08     0.36     1.18    10.57     2.90R    0.37  
Crystal_Palace    5    6   -2      -0.45    44.56    -1.22    44.17     8.89   -15.05     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.14     2.25    11.06R    1.60  
Southampton       5    5   +0      -2.01    26.64    -0.25    44.01     8.74   -11.23     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.12     2.14    10.42R    1.74  
Brighton          5    5   -2       0.03    53.30     1.14    40.88     8.56   -18.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.91    18.76R    3.45  
Fulham            5    4   -5      -0.55    45.16     0.50    38.26     9.51   -27.41     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.85    31.21R    8.60  
West_Ham          5    3   -6      -1.99    24.30    -2.10    40.28     8.95   -22.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.80    22.54R    4.95  
Cardiff           5    2   -6      -2.55    18.69    -1.92    32.24     8.76   -32.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    56.57R   20.94  
Huddersfield      5    2   -9      -1.65    27.96    -2.76    27.08     7.62   -43.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    80.00R   45.85  
Newcastle         5    1   -4      -3.58     8.91    -0.02    43.51     8.92    -8.92     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.09     1.89    11.92R    1.97  
Burnley           5    1   -7      -4.84     3.87    -5.68    37.34     8.46   -21.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.29    31.58R    7.39  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 21 September 2018, Wigan 1 0 Bristol_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United     8   18  +13       5.82    93.47    10.99    78.25    10.24    25.39    14.34    27.81    67.17    37.07P    0.05R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    8   17   +8       3.29    80.60     3.98    82.43     9.78    27.67    24.23    42.49    80.77    54.28P    0.01R    0.00  
Wigan            9   16   +3       1.76    66.13     0.09    72.27    10.28    11.37     5.25    11.78    43.11    19.57P    0.46R    0.04  
Brentford        8   15   +8       2.12    70.51     4.96    75.54    10.35    20.94     9.63    20.18    57.01    29.20P    0.17R    0.02  
West_Brom        8   14   +8      -0.62    43.09     2.13    81.04    10.66    31.33    22.96    38.99    75.62    50.43P    0.07R    0.01  
Bristol_City     9   14   +3       1.61    65.42     3.04    68.46    10.08     8.47     2.38     6.07    29.59    10.95P    1.04R    0.13  
Sheff_Utd        8   13   +3       1.51    65.11     2.23    67.12    10.21     5.87     1.89     4.93    25.50     9.28P    1.54R    0.21  
Aston_Villa      8   13   +2      -0.12    48.60    -1.35    72.86    10.01    13.72     5.38    12.57    45.79    21.25P    0.30R    0.03  
Derby            8   13   +1      -0.21    47.75    -2.25    71.15    10.04    10.26     3.98     9.44    38.67    16.90P    0.47R    0.04  
Swansea          8   12   +1      -0.59    44.29    -1.40    71.39    10.30    12.09     4.38    10.48    40.51    18.68P    0.55R    0.07  
Nott'm_Forest    8   11   +1       1.32    64.75     3.11    59.16    10.00    -5.17     0.25     0.82     7.45     2.00P    7.91R    1.68  
Norwich          8   11   -1       0.53    56.56    -0.17    61.97    10.16    -3.44     0.51     1.56    12.33     3.57P    4.86R    0.85  
Sheff_Wed        8   11   -1      -0.21    48.67    -1.29    63.61    10.13    -0.34     0.82     2.46    15.56     5.10P    3.39R    0.57  
Blackburn        8   11   -1       0.39    54.98    -0.48    62.14    10.51    -2.21     0.69     2.02    13.37     4.34P    5.21R    1.00  
Bolton           8   11   -3       2.85    79.10     1.56    48.09     9.28   -26.20     0.01     0.03     0.55     0.09P   38.62R   12.94  
QPR              8   10   -7       0.71    58.38    -4.21    52.34     9.78   -23.19     0.04     0.12     1.87     0.38P   23.54R    6.70  
Stoke            8    9   -3      -2.24    29.11    -3.37    68.50    10.76     8.26     2.92     7.06    30.90    13.17P    1.56R    0.29  
Rotherham        8    9   -7       1.69    69.41    -0.67    46.31     9.91   -31.27     0.01     0.03     0.52     0.10P   47.25R   20.23  
Hull             8    7   -4      -3.54    18.56    -3.11    57.73    10.26    -7.04     0.22     0.66     6.24     1.75P   10.91R    2.50  
Birmingham       8    6   -2      -2.33    26.88     1.61    45.94     9.25   -19.25     0.00     0.01     0.29     0.06P   46.30R   17.90  
Millwall         8    6   -4      -4.01    14.86    -2.79    55.26     9.79    -8.04     0.06     0.27     3.39     0.90P   14.28R    3.35  
Reading          8    5   -4      -4.34    12.50    -1.39    47.26     9.78   -20.26     0.01     0.02     0.57     0.11P   41.29R   16.03  
Preston          8    5   -8      -5.51     6.58    -7.31    53.23     9.84   -13.71     0.05     0.13     2.16     0.56P   19.92R    5.57  
Ipswich          8    4   -6      -5.59     6.51    -3.92    49.97     9.75   -15.24     0.01     0.05     1.05     0.26P   30.29R    9.84  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 September 2018, AFC_Wimbledon 2 3 Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth            8   20  +10       7.77    97.75     8.13    78.18    10.34    18.95    11.61    25.30    69.05    35.26P    0.22R    0.00  
Peterborough          8   19  +11       5.71    92.19     7.44    81.98    10.63    27.57    21.58    39.84    80.29    50.24P    0.09R    0.00  
Barnsley              8   15  +10      -0.01    48.88     3.95    82.60    10.83    33.14    24.97    43.66    81.64    56.39P    0.11R    0.00  
Sunderland            8   15   +7       0.65    55.37     1.83    82.95    10.85    31.15    25.74    44.68    82.04    56.71P    0.08R    0.01  
Doncaster             8   15   +7       3.49    81.19     6.15    70.50    10.25    12.07     3.14     8.28    40.51    15.72P    1.42R    0.10  
Walsall               8   15   +2       4.35    86.44     2.48    65.39    10.27    -0.57     1.19     3.30    22.10     6.93P    4.74R    0.47  
Charlton              8   14   +3       2.16    70.82     1.74    71.57    10.24    11.10     3.49     9.50    44.33    18.13P    1.12R    0.07  
Fleetwood_Town        8   13   +7       1.10    60.77     5.66    69.43    10.34    13.40     2.64     7.38    36.82    14.31P    1.75R    0.14  
Blackpool             8   13   +3       1.17    61.62     1.65    65.03    10.12     3.24     0.94     2.97    21.56     7.03P    4.45R    0.39  
Accrington_Stanley    8   11   +0       1.23    63.20     1.71    56.84    10.60    -9.31     0.23     0.78     7.03     2.04P   20.66R    4.00  
Luton                 8   11   +0       0.38    54.55     0.59    64.05    10.89     1.30     1.01     3.12    20.62     7.13P    7.07R    0.86  
Coventry              8   11   -1       1.37    64.90     0.71    55.13    10.07   -11.39     0.11     0.38     4.35     1.12P   24.35R    4.27  
Rochdale              8   11   -3       1.00    60.96    -1.38    61.33    10.36    -5.99     0.45     1.49    13.03     3.82P   10.34R    1.48  
Burton_Albion         8   10   -1      -1.34    37.75    -1.53    61.98    10.89    -1.04     0.73     2.28    15.70     5.66P    9.84R    1.44  
Scunthorpe            8   10   -6      -1.45    36.41    -6.58    66.28    10.60     0.03     1.39     4.13    25.70     9.30P    4.63R    0.50  
AFC_Wimbledon         8    8   -5      -0.79    43.81    -1.91    52.78     9.79   -14.82     0.02     0.15     2.36     0.55P   31.97R    6.72  
Shrewsbury            8    7   -1      -4.28    13.62    -1.60    61.46    10.00     2.79     0.40     1.31    12.76     4.22P    8.69R    1.05  
Southend              8    7   -4      -3.41    19.66    -3.17    57.12    10.34    -7.23     0.18     0.62     6.78     1.99P   18.89R    3.22  
Wycombe               8    7   -4      -1.67    34.71    -0.65    45.87    10.16   -24.35     0.00     0.03     0.75     0.15P   59.29R   22.60  
Gillingham            8    7   -5      -2.65    25.40    -2.93    53.55    10.22   -13.48     0.05     0.24     3.43     0.95P   30.04R    6.53  
Bradford              8    6   -7      -3.77    16.54    -5.32    54.32    10.21   -12.57     0.06     0.23     3.76     1.01P   27.06R    5.79  
Bristol_Rovers        8    5   -4      -5.19     8.95    -2.78    51.54    10.21   -12.54     0.03     0.14     2.45     0.64P   36.37R    8.84  
Oxford_Utd            8    5   -9      -4.45    12.37    -6.47    51.83    10.35   -17.56     0.03     0.18     2.52     0.62P   36.63R    9.32  
Plymouth              8    3  -10      -6.41     3.66    -7.71    45.66     9.74   -23.88     0.00     0.01     0.41     0.08P   60.18R   22.20  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 September 2018, Carlisle 0 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City      8   19  +10       5.82    93.25     6.70    78.93    10.21    21.74    15.19    40.58    73.81    49.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Exeter            8   16   +7       3.03    77.71     3.94    78.50    10.32    22.75    14.23    39.04    72.58    48.09P    0.01R    0.00  
Newport_County    8   16   -4       6.36    94.96    -2.04    62.79     9.97   -11.79     0.59     3.42    16.07     5.35P    1.20R    0.26  
Colchester        8   15  +12       1.56    64.84     8.32    77.52    10.15    27.59    13.15    36.39    70.65    46.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Yeovil            7   14  +12       4.09    86.39    11.56    71.18    10.53    17.58     4.81    17.25    46.40    23.64P    0.17R    0.04  
Oldham            8   14   +6      -0.47    44.63     0.79    77.48    10.76    22.97    13.57    36.60    68.93    46.59P    0.04R    0.01  
Bury              8   13   +4      -0.05    49.14     0.80    74.74    11.00    18.66     9.16    27.48    58.82    36.26P    0.12R    0.01  
Tranmere          8   13   +3       3.01    77.64     4.35    63.17    10.60     0.47     1.00     4.85    19.22     7.79P    1.47R    0.37  
MK_Dons           7   13   +3       1.41    64.52     0.06    79.35    10.79    21.95    17.19    42.57    73.92    51.86P    0.03R    0.00  
Crawley_Town      8   13   +1       2.95    77.72     2.42    62.38    10.21    -3.18     0.62     3.62    16.34     5.96P    1.52R    0.31  
Carlisle          8   13   -1       1.57    65.42    -1.69    67.85    10.25     3.13     2.12     9.58    32.45    14.72P    0.41R    0.11  
Forest_Green      8   12   +5       2.41    73.68     7.17    60.09    10.19    -1.30     0.35     2.32    12.25     4.10P    2.27R    0.52  
Stevenage         8   12   +1      -0.04    50.00    -0.54    62.07    10.14    -2.09     0.56     3.35    15.72     5.96P    1.35R    0.31  
Swindon           8   12   -1      -0.14    48.88    -2.78    67.75    10.49     4.25     2.23     9.75    32.83    15.22P    0.44R    0.09  
Mansfield         7   10   +3      -0.97    39.87     0.98    70.35    10.39    13.30     3.80    14.59    42.84    22.37P    0.23R    0.05  
Port_Vale         8   10   +1      -0.84    42.36     1.12    60.70    10.04    -0.74     0.40     2.49    12.84     4.62P    1.92R    0.43  
Crewe             7    8   +1      -1.49    35.02     1.21    58.60    10.65    -3.82     0.35     2.07    10.62     3.93P    3.74R    1.02  
Cheltenham        8    8   -2      -2.50    26.97    -1.32    54.95    10.00    -9.74     0.10     0.74     4.77     1.51P    6.44R    1.77  
Cambridge_Utd     8    7   -8      -2.85    23.61    -6.39    55.33    10.10   -13.46     0.08     0.72     5.16     1.66P    6.40R    2.01  
Northampton       8    6   -5      -5.21     9.36    -5.34    58.78    10.92    -4.17     0.46     2.38    11.32     4.62P    4.20R    1.24  
Grimsby           8    5  -10      -3.06    21.06    -5.68    44.44     9.54   -28.78     0.00     0.03     0.32     0.06P   33.05R   12.77  
Morecambe         8    3  -14      -4.42    10.25    -8.66    41.83     9.31   -33.39     0.00     0.01     0.11     0.03P   44.51R   19.88  
Macclesfield      8    2  -10      -4.80     7.49    -3.33    34.68     9.46   -40.57     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   73.81R   52.49  
Notts_County      8    2  -14      -7.59     1.73   -11.62    50.00    10.34   -21.35     0.03     0.20     1.98     0.60P   16.66R    6.30  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 September 2018, Sutton_United 0 4 Boreham_Wood; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Harrogate_Town     11   25  +14       8.26    95.67    11.35    77.68    10.49    21.16    17.88    59.86    26.98P    0.29R    0.01  
Wrexham            11   24  +13       6.21    91.33     9.15    78.68     9.06    23.16    16.89    66.19    30.00P    0.05R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient      11   23  +11       4.97    85.89     6.68    80.63     9.36    25.62    24.27    73.18    37.63P    0.05R    0.00  
Salford_City       11   21   +7       6.53    91.29     7.86    68.10    10.16     6.23     3.16    24.66     7.43P    2.62R    0.08  
AFC_Fylde          11   20  +10       1.51    62.40     4.84    76.63     9.45    23.10    13.17    57.50    25.41P    0.16R    0.00  
Hartlepool         11   20   +4       3.27    75.64     1.53    67.81     9.21     4.49     2.04    21.56     6.17P    1.77R    0.03  
Boreham_Wood       11   19   +4       2.25    69.19     1.43    70.33     9.24     9.52     3.79    30.21    10.21P    0.98R    0.02  
Sutton_United      11   19   +0       3.24    75.74    -1.08    67.59     9.33     1.40     1.99    20.67     5.93P    2.29R    0.07  
Solihull_Moors     11   19   -1       6.23    91.40     2.34    62.47     9.17    -7.04     0.55     8.58     1.85P    6.99R    0.35  
Halifax            11   18   +4       4.15    82.16     5.42    61.92     9.14    -1.04     0.48     8.26     1.91P    7.00R    0.29  
Gateshead          11   17   +2       0.73    56.42     0.14    66.77     9.38     5.17     1.86    19.07     5.68P    2.81R    0.08  
Barnet             11   17   -3      -0.52    45.52    -6.63    74.17     9.71    10.72     8.44    45.95    19.81P    0.46R    0.01  
Maidenhead         11   14   +1      -0.85    43.45     1.38    58.38     9.44    -4.60     0.22     4.60     1.07P   14.73R    1.06  
Ebbsfleet_United   11   14   -1      -0.10    50.20     0.19    64.60     9.41     3.32     1.09    13.47     3.86P    4.54R    0.21  
Barrow             11   12   -2      -2.40    30.50    -1.19    55.32     9.20    -8.42     0.09     2.14     0.49P   22.97R    1.98  
Chesterfield       11   11   -1      -6.47     8.59    -4.61    68.95     9.80    13.95     3.41    27.83    11.32P    1.95R    0.07  
Eastleigh          11   11   -8      -1.33    39.65    -3.93    54.15     9.26   -14.96     0.03     1.51     0.32P   28.32R    3.16  
Bromley            11   10   -1      -5.54    11.50    -1.84    59.40     9.54     1.09     0.29     5.60     1.57P   12.16R    0.90  
Aldershot          11   10  -11      -3.81    20.67    -9.34    57.30     9.31   -11.49     0.11     3.18     0.78P   18.05R    1.46  
Dag_&_Red          11    9   -4      -7.08     5.84    -5.61    57.98     9.44    -2.25     0.18     4.22     1.12P   15.35R    1.23  
Havant_&_Wville    11    9   -9      -1.69    37.50    -1.55    41.97     9.69   -34.55     0.01     0.14     0.03P   76.62R   29.99  
Maidstone_United   11    7   -9      -4.62    14.94    -4.07    44.64     8.85   -24.09     0.00     0.07     0.02P   68.19R   17.94  
Braintree_Town     11    6   -8      -4.41    15.42    -1.37    39.71     9.32   -28.52     0.00     0.04     0.01P   82.61R   37.66  
Dover_Athletic     11    6  -12      -8.39     2.62   -11.08    53.82     9.45   -11.99     0.04     1.49     0.42P   29.03R    3.42