Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 20 September 2018 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 17 September 2018, Southampton 2 2 Brighton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea           5   15  +10       4.26    93.98     3.59    78.43     8.96    39.69    11.49    31.57    53.64    73.42    96.34     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         5   15   +9       4.87    96.11     3.34    82.32     8.71    46.74    22.01    49.97    71.32    85.98    98.53     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          5   13  +11       0.81    62.74     0.44    88.42     7.94    66.63    55.21    78.79    90.62    96.48    99.81     0.00     0.00  
Watford           5   12   +5       5.96    97.30     6.42    51.30     9.05    -7.51     0.01     0.08     0.33     1.11     9.75     2.39R    0.25  
Bournemouth       5   10   +3       3.31    86.57     3.64    50.08     9.01    -8.48     0.00     0.04     0.22     0.90     7.91     3.28R    0.32  
Tottenham         5    9   +4      -0.48    41.65    -0.51    76.61     8.69    41.11     7.62    24.12    46.11    67.97    95.17     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           5    9   +1       0.87    60.09    -1.04    69.27     9.33    25.97     1.64     7.12    17.31    33.52    79.91     0.02R    0.00  
Man_Utd           5    9   +0      -0.30    44.46    -3.64    70.55     8.87    25.09     2.01     8.17    19.76    38.18    84.81     0.00R    0.00  
Wolverhampton     5    8   +0       2.45    80.37     2.39    45.02     9.14   -14.59     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.29     3.11    10.05R    1.60  
Everton           5    6   -1      -2.01    25.61    -2.73    46.53     9.06   -11.16     0.00     0.02     0.10     0.37     4.18     7.35R    1.01  
Leicester         5    6   -1      -0.05    49.86     0.57    51.36     9.35    -3.43     0.01     0.09     0.39     1.27    10.82     2.87R    0.40  
Crystal_Palace    5    6   -2      -0.42    44.87    -1.16    44.00     8.76   -15.36     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.14     2.14    10.99R    1.56  
Southampton       5    5   +0      -2.01    26.81    -0.23    44.08     8.75   -11.08     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.13     2.13    10.62R    1.66  
Brighton          5    5   -2       0.02    52.97     1.09    40.90     8.70   -18.37     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.95    19.43R    3.68  
Fulham            5    4   -5      -0.58    44.47     0.44    38.47     9.50   -27.04     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.06     0.93    30.72R    8.37  
West_Ham          5    3   -6      -2.01    24.13    -2.12    40.41     9.07   -22.03     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     1.04    22.48R    5.01  
Cardiff           5    2   -6      -2.56    18.48    -1.98    32.38     8.65   -32.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09    55.79R   20.37  
Huddersfield      5    2   -9      -1.67    27.61    -2.78    27.11     7.60   -43.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.08R   45.96  
Newcastle         5    1   -4      -3.57     9.00    -0.01    43.52     8.92    -8.93     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08     2.05    11.99R    1.98  
Burnley           5    1   -7      -4.86     3.77    -5.72    37.33     8.56   -21.72     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.32    31.92R    7.83  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 19 September 2018, Middlesbrough 2 0 Bolton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United     8   18  +13       5.82    93.29    11.01    78.30    10.29    25.42    14.19    27.78    67.06    36.61P    0.07R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    8   17   +8       3.32    80.81     4.02    82.42     9.83    27.60    24.15    42.35    80.61    54.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Brentford        8   15   +8       2.19    70.89     5.08    75.25    10.26    20.45     9.13    19.02    55.86    27.92P    0.17R    0.02  
West_Brom        8   14   +8      -0.61    43.34     2.16    81.04    10.62    31.31    22.63    38.85    75.48    50.45P    0.06R    0.00  
Bristol_City     8   14   +4       2.56    74.63     3.41    69.67    10.39     9.21     3.33     8.01    33.97    13.48P    0.90R    0.14  
Sheff_Utd        8   13   +3       1.40    63.86     2.09    67.47    10.24     6.43     2.02     5.32    26.29     9.73P    1.51R    0.25  
Aston_Villa      8   13   +2      -0.13    48.24    -1.36    72.93    10.08    13.87     5.63    12.85    45.88    21.36P    0.31R    0.03  
Wigan            8   13   +2       0.50    55.34    -0.37    70.71    10.62    10.55     4.42    10.02    37.66    16.84P    0.82R    0.14  
Derby            8   13   +1      -0.23    47.21    -2.31    71.14     9.99    10.29     3.82     9.31    39.09    16.80P    0.45R    0.04  
Swansea          8   12   +1      -0.63    43.84    -1.45    71.70    10.39    12.50     4.82    11.11    41.71    19.67P    0.58R    0.06  
Nott'm_Forest    8   11   +1       1.36    65.18     3.16    59.15     9.99    -5.15     0.26     0.77     7.45     1.99P    8.00R    1.66  
Norwich          8   11   -1       0.51    55.91    -0.21    62.20    10.12    -3.06     0.56     1.76    12.67     3.80P    4.47R    0.85  
Sheff_Wed        8   11   -1      -0.22    48.44    -1.28    63.48    10.15    -0.58     0.89     2.41    15.48     5.12P    3.28R    0.53  
Blackburn        8   11   -1       0.39    55.02    -0.46    62.13    10.56    -2.26     0.82     2.14    13.24     4.45P    5.25R    1.04  
Bolton           8   11   -3       2.83    79.05     1.54    48.19     9.26   -26.13     0.01     0.02     0.51     0.07P   38.26R   12.70  
QPR              8   10   -7       0.81    59.43    -4.05    52.05     9.77   -23.81     0.02     0.11     1.73     0.37P   24.60R    7.11  
Stoke            8    9   -3      -2.28    29.08    -3.40    68.47    10.80     8.29     2.89     6.86    30.84    13.29P    1.67R    0.28  
Rotherham        8    9   -7       1.64    68.92    -0.74    46.36     9.94   -31.35     0.01     0.02     0.46     0.08P   46.95R   20.37  
Hull             8    7   -4      -3.53    18.66    -3.09    57.75    10.31    -6.99     0.27     0.79     6.45     1.88P   10.83R    2.55  
Birmingham       8    6   -2      -2.40    26.65     1.56    46.00     9.26   -19.33     0.00     0.01     0.28     0.05P   45.81R   17.71  
Millwall         8    6   -4      -3.97    15.16    -2.72    55.04     9.76    -8.47     0.07     0.24     3.25     0.88P   14.95R    3.66  
Reading          8    5   -4      -4.35    12.43    -1.39    47.36     9.79   -20.14     0.01     0.03     0.59     0.12P   41.08R   15.71  
Preston          8    5   -8      -5.48     6.73    -7.28    53.34     9.95   -13.62     0.05     0.16     2.31     0.61P   20.03R    5.63  
Ipswich          8    4   -6      -5.60     6.54    -3.94    50.12     9.74   -15.02     0.02     0.06     1.11     0.27P   29.96R    9.51  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 September 2018, AFC_Wimbledon 2 3 Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth            8   20  +10       7.72    97.72     8.06    78.42    10.26    19.30    11.83    25.47    69.72    35.71P    0.17R    0.01  
Peterborough          8   19  +11       5.64    92.23     7.35    82.22    10.65    27.92    22.03    40.56    80.88    51.11P    0.07R    0.00  
Barnsley              8   15  +10       0.04    49.20     4.03    82.32    10.78    32.70    23.72    42.21    80.90    55.06P    0.08R    0.01  
Sunderland            8   15   +7       0.54    54.48     1.69    83.50    10.92    31.96    27.13    46.43    83.25    58.41P    0.09R    0.00  
Doncaster             8   15   +7       3.50    80.97     6.17    70.29    10.27    11.80     2.91     7.90    39.87    15.12P    1.51R    0.08  
Walsall               8   15   +2       4.33    86.27     2.46    65.35    10.30    -0.64     1.00     3.19    22.25     6.78P    4.81R    0.44  
Charlton              8   14   +3       2.15    71.07     1.71    71.71    10.30    11.29     3.63     9.83    44.67    18.68P    1.16R    0.08  
Fleetwood_Town        8   13   +7       1.11    60.87     5.65    69.45    10.36    13.41     2.60     7.42    37.05    14.57P    1.99R    0.15  
Blackpool             8   13   +3       1.14    61.49     1.61    65.21    10.16     3.48     0.95     3.03    22.10     7.28P    4.49R    0.41  
Accrington_Stanley    8   11   +0       1.24    63.55     1.74    56.75    10.49    -9.43     0.21     0.65     6.79     1.81P   20.57R    3.60  
Luton                 8   11   +0       0.46    55.58     0.68    63.70    10.94     0.86     0.92     2.88    19.58     6.67P    7.72R    1.01  
Coventry              8   11   -1       1.38    64.78     0.71    55.11    10.11   -11.33     0.09     0.32     4.49     1.09P   24.23R    4.53  
Rochdale              8   11   -3       0.98    60.89    -1.40    61.40    10.37    -5.94     0.42     1.36    13.14     3.59P   10.39R    1.41  
Burton_Albion         8   10   -1      -1.28    37.98    -1.45    61.85    10.72    -1.24     0.64     2.07    15.25     5.19P    9.62R    1.38  
Scunthorpe            8   10   -6      -1.41    36.69    -6.54    66.26    10.59    -0.05     1.23     3.99    25.65     9.10P    4.57R    0.55  
AFC_Wimbledon         8    8   -5      -0.78    43.82    -1.87    52.57     9.74   -15.13     0.02     0.09     2.22     0.46P   32.57R    7.23  
Shrewsbury            8    7   -1      -4.23    13.68    -1.56    61.36    10.00     2.64     0.34     1.28    12.70     4.16P    8.75R    1.02  
Southend              8    7   -4      -3.35    20.04    -3.08    56.83    10.29    -7.65     0.13     0.50     6.37     1.78P   19.46R    3.41  
Wycombe               8    7   -4      -1.68    34.54    -0.65    45.91    10.14   -24.35     0.01     0.03     0.68     0.15P   59.20R   22.80  
Gillingham            8    7   -5      -2.68    25.07    -2.96    53.50    10.13   -13.50     0.06     0.23     3.36     0.90P   29.71R    6.46  
Bradford              8    6   -7      -3.80    16.30    -5.39    54.46    10.19   -12.37     0.07     0.28     3.86     1.01P   26.65R    5.36  
Bristol_Rovers        8    5   -4      -5.17     9.01    -2.73    51.43    10.21   -12.70     0.03     0.13     2.26     0.63P   36.71R    8.95  
Oxford_Utd            8    5   -9      -4.43    12.26    -6.46    51.93    10.32   -17.39     0.03     0.14     2.44     0.60P   36.01R    9.00  
Plymouth              8    3  -10      -6.42     3.54    -7.77    45.82     9.87   -23.65     0.00     0.02     0.49     0.13P   59.46R   22.10  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 September 2018, Carlisle 0 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City      8   19  +10       5.78    93.06     6.65    79.12    10.18    21.98    15.53    40.78    74.69    49.39P    0.02R    0.00  
Exeter            8   16   +7       2.99    77.30     3.86    78.79    10.36    23.23    15.22    40.22    73.10    49.09P    0.01R    0.00  
Newport_County    8   16   -4       6.32    94.72    -2.09    62.90     9.98   -11.61     0.68     3.56    16.39     5.58P    1.21R    0.24  
Colchester        8   15  +12       1.56    64.99     8.33    77.46    10.14    27.49    12.91    35.97    70.03    45.63P    0.02R    0.00  
Yeovil            7   14  +12       4.11    86.73    11.55    71.13    10.47    17.50     4.51    16.94    46.21    23.13P    0.16R    0.03  
Oldham            8   14   +6      -0.41    45.35     0.88    77.14    10.69    22.41    12.68    35.20    67.68    45.04P    0.02R    0.00  
Bury              8   13   +4      -0.04    49.19     0.84    74.59    11.02    18.46     9.20    27.28    58.22    35.80P    0.09R    0.01  
Tranmere          8   13   +3       3.03    77.94     4.36    63.08    10.51     0.36     0.89     4.61    18.97     7.58P    1.37R    0.28  
MK_Dons           7   13   +3       1.42    64.42     0.06    79.58    10.81    22.24    17.53    43.40    74.62    53.10P    0.01R    0.00  
Crawley_Town      8   13   +1       2.93    77.46     2.41    62.36    10.22    -3.28     0.60     3.46    16.48     5.92P    1.49R    0.31  
Carlisle          8   13   -1       1.52    64.88    -1.74    68.01    10.24     3.40     2.03     9.87    32.91    15.11P    0.36R    0.05  
Forest_Green      8   12   +5       2.41    73.73     7.16    60.00    10.04    -1.49     0.32     2.15    11.75     3.85P    2.15R    0.53  
Stevenage         8   12   +1      -0.09    49.44    -0.63    62.16    10.18    -1.92     0.58     3.50    16.21     6.25P    1.45R    0.33  
Swindon           8   12   -1      -0.16    48.58    -2.80    67.84    10.44     4.42     2.33     9.98    32.82    15.36P    0.47R    0.09  
Mansfield         7   10   +3      -0.98    39.59     0.97    70.53    10.38    13.59     3.80    14.73    43.36    22.47P    0.21R    0.03  
Port_Vale         8   10   +1      -0.81    42.36     1.18    60.57    10.02    -0.95     0.31     2.38    12.53     4.55P    2.01R    0.47  
Crewe             7    8   +1      -1.50    34.90     1.17    58.61    10.59    -3.78     0.35     1.99    10.56     3.77P    3.58R    0.85  
Cheltenham        8    8   -2      -2.48    27.30    -1.30    54.90    10.04    -9.87     0.09     0.65     4.77     1.42P    6.50R    1.77  
Cambridge_Utd     8    7   -8      -2.86    23.75    -6.39    55.46     9.94   -13.26     0.05     0.73     4.79     1.56P    5.95R    1.78  
Northampton       8    6   -5      -5.19     9.67    -5.31    58.68    11.02    -4.37     0.40     2.38    11.36     4.69P    4.16R    1.26  
Grimsby           8    5  -10      -3.03    21.11    -5.66    44.38     9.51   -28.84     0.00     0.01     0.30     0.06P   33.13R   12.70  
Morecambe         8    3  -14      -4.39    10.38    -8.64    41.77     9.32   -33.40     0.00     0.01     0.16     0.04P   44.40R   19.83  
Macclesfield      8    2  -10      -4.76     7.65    -3.27    34.35     9.41   -41.12     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   74.84R   53.52  
Notts_County      8    2  -14      -7.55     1.83   -11.57    50.09    10.45   -21.19     0.02     0.20     2.08     0.62P   16.41R    5.91  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 September 2018, Sutton_United 0 4 Boreham_Wood; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Harrogate_Town     11   25  +14       8.29    95.86    11.43    77.42    10.43    20.77    17.36    59.45    26.35P    0.31R    0.00  
Wrexham            11   24  +13       6.22    91.39     9.16    78.58     9.03    23.04    16.88    66.02    29.82P    0.06R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient      11   23  +11       5.03    86.14     6.77    80.60     9.38    25.55    24.37    72.98    37.49P    0.04R    0.00  
Salford_City       11   21   +7       6.49    91.04     7.80    68.15    10.25     6.34     3.34    25.12     7.70P    2.78R    0.12  
AFC_Fylde          11   20  +10       1.52    62.30     4.84    76.60     9.53    23.04    13.36    57.79    25.61P    0.19R    0.00  
Hartlepool         11   20   +4       3.26    75.72     1.50    67.72     9.25     4.32     2.14    21.30     6.16P    2.01R    0.05  
Boreham_Wood       11   19   +4       2.22    68.75     1.38    70.40     9.22     9.65     3.78    30.61    10.27P    0.86R    0.02  
Sutton_United      11   19   +0       3.23    75.47    -1.07    67.39     9.32     1.05     1.86    20.08     5.76P    2.34R    0.08  
Solihull_Moors     11   19   -1       6.19    91.25     2.27    62.42     9.16    -7.08     0.51     8.42     1.82P    7.13R    0.38  
Halifax            11   18   +4       4.09    81.82     5.35    62.14     9.18    -0.74     0.51     8.51     2.00P    6.91R    0.33  
Gateshead          11   17   +2       0.78    56.92     0.22    66.76     9.46     5.06     1.80    19.49     5.82P    2.82R    0.11  
Barnet             11   17   -3      -0.53    45.41    -6.64    74.20     9.74    10.70     8.55    45.82    20.12P    0.56R    0.02  
Maidenhead         11   14   +1      -0.80    43.86     1.41    58.34     9.46    -4.66     0.20     4.65     1.07P   15.05R    1.06  
Ebbsfleet_United   11   14   -1      -0.12    50.12     0.13    64.64     9.41     3.39     1.00    13.71     3.85P    4.61R    0.21  
Barrow             11   12   -2      -2.36    30.73    -1.15    55.42     9.21    -8.31     0.10     2.12     0.48P   22.79R    1.93  
Chesterfield       11   11   -1      -6.37     8.66    -4.46    68.75     9.85    13.70     3.41    27.23    11.19P    2.06R    0.07  
Eastleigh          11   11   -8      -1.30    40.00    -3.89    54.09     9.30   -15.07     0.05     1.45     0.34P   28.70R    3.41  
Bromley            11   10   -1      -5.58    11.56    -1.88    59.42     9.56     1.18     0.34     5.87     1.60P   12.30R    1.01  
Aldershot          11   10  -11      -3.77    20.74    -9.30    57.22     9.22   -11.55     0.12     2.95     0.75P   17.95R    1.47  
Dag_&_Red          11    9   -4      -7.11     5.81    -5.67    58.24     9.50    -1.88     0.25     4.49     1.31P   15.03R    1.10  
Havant_&_Wville    11    9   -9      -1.63    38.19    -1.45    41.87     9.71   -34.66     0.00     0.13     0.03P   77.02R   30.43  
Maidstone_United   11    7   -9      -4.67    14.41    -4.14    44.61     8.87   -24.06     0.00     0.08     0.01P   68.21R   18.06  
Braintree_Town     11    6   -8      -4.48    15.02    -1.42    39.98     9.40   -28.22     0.00     0.04     0.01P   81.98R   36.81  
Dover_Athletic     11    6  -12      -8.46     2.48   -11.17    54.08     9.47   -11.56     0.05     1.70     0.44P   28.31R    3.36