Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 19 September 2018 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 17 September 2018, Southampton 2 2 Brighton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea           5   15  +10       4.27    94.04     3.59    78.55     8.89    39.82    11.64    31.54    54.03    74.29    96.55     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         5   15   +9       4.87    96.05     3.33    82.28     8.65    46.68    21.82    49.94    71.10    85.84    98.63     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          5   13  +11       0.80    62.54     0.47    88.39     7.99    66.43    55.13    78.74    90.20    96.21    99.81     0.00     0.00  
Watford           5   12   +5       6.00    97.44     6.47    51.07     8.94    -7.82     0.01     0.06     0.28     0.96     9.16     2.42R    0.22  
Bournemouth       5   10   +3       3.30    86.47     3.61    50.07     9.05    -8.40     0.01     0.04     0.16     0.72     7.91     3.34R    0.34  
Tottenham         5    9   +4      -0.48    41.72    -0.49    76.45     8.69    40.91     7.55    23.38    45.19    67.11    95.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           5    9   +1       0.87    59.89    -1.03    69.39     9.29    26.13     1.66     7.41    17.82    34.02    80.01     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd           5    9   +0      -0.31    44.25    -3.64    70.83     8.84    25.54     2.16     8.76    20.55    38.40    85.44     0.01R    0.00  
Wolverhampton     5    8   +0       2.47    80.44     2.39    44.96     9.25   -14.70     0.00     0.02     0.08     0.30     3.21    10.58R    1.70  
Everton           5    6   -1      -2.04    25.17    -2.78    46.63     9.09   -10.98     0.00     0.02     0.10     0.36     4.37     7.18R    0.99  
Leicester         5    6   -1      -0.02    49.90     0.60    51.23     9.39    -3.64     0.01     0.08     0.38     1.29    10.57     3.04R    0.45  
Crystal_Palace    5    6   -2      -0.42    45.00    -1.18    44.04     8.73   -15.28     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.10     2.18    11.18R    1.62  
Southampton       5    5   +0      -2.03    26.49    -0.24    44.06     8.75   -11.13     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.14     2.11    10.67R    1.75  
Brighton          5    5   -2       0.01    53.14     1.08    40.97     8.60   -18.21     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.93    18.88R    3.55  
Fulham            5    4   -5      -0.56    45.01     0.45    38.38     9.53   -27.14     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.92    31.18R    8.66  
West_Ham          5    3   -6      -1.97    24.42    -2.03    40.16     8.95   -22.50     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.89    22.93R    5.14  
Cardiff           5    2   -6      -2.57    18.43    -1.98    32.56     8.65   -31.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12    55.24R   19.93  
Huddersfield      5    2   -9      -1.67    27.61    -2.82    27.27     7.64   -43.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    79.47R   45.92  
Newcastle         5    1   -4      -3.57     9.11    -0.01    43.35     8.93    -9.19     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.10     1.85    12.54R    2.12  
Burnley           5    1   -7      -4.90     3.59    -5.77    37.42     8.52   -21.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.33    31.33R    7.62  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 19 September 2018, Middlesbrough 2 0 Bolton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United     8   18  +13       5.78    93.25    10.96    78.34    10.23    25.46    14.19    27.84    67.14    36.83P    0.07R    0.01  
Middlesbrough    8   17   +8       3.32    80.96     4.03    82.27     9.78    27.40    23.69    41.77    80.29    53.37P    0.01R    0.00  
Brentford        8   15   +8       2.18    70.94     5.06    75.28    10.21    20.48     8.75    18.64    56.06    27.77P    0.19R    0.01  
West_Brom        8   14   +8      -0.69    42.34     2.01    81.38    10.65    31.88    23.81    40.16    76.27    51.56P    0.04R    0.00  
Bristol_City     8   14   +4       2.56    74.59     3.38    69.82    10.32     9.47     3.29     8.01    34.58    13.42P    0.94R    0.16  
Sheff_Utd        8   13   +3       1.45    64.47     2.17    67.23    10.26     6.01     1.90     4.93    25.70     9.43P    1.49R    0.22  
Aston_Villa      8   13   +2      -0.13    48.36    -1.34    72.90    10.08    13.79     5.63    12.71    46.17    21.33P    0.32R    0.04  
Wigan            8   13   +2       0.52    55.19    -0.34    70.76    10.75    10.56     4.44    10.45    38.28    17.38P    0.86R    0.10  
Derby            8   13   +1      -0.22    47.66    -2.30    71.12    10.09    10.27     4.05     9.78    38.79    17.29P    0.44R    0.05  
Swansea          8   12   +1      -0.63    43.75    -1.46    71.51    10.33    12.23     4.62    10.57    40.50    18.81P    0.47R    0.04  
Nott'm_Forest    8   11   +1       1.36    65.36     3.17    59.26    10.01    -5.05     0.26     0.84     7.57     2.05P    7.76R    1.50  
Norwich          8   11   -1       0.52    56.27    -0.19    62.20    10.19    -3.13     0.54     1.71    12.83     3.80P    4.71R    0.84  
Sheff_Wed        8   11   -1      -0.27    47.97    -1.36    63.65    10.12    -0.29     0.84     2.34    15.89     5.33P    3.35R    0.57  
Blackburn        8   11   -1       0.42    55.15    -0.41    62.03    10.48    -2.42     0.75     2.11    13.07     4.41P    5.32R    1.05  
Bolton           8   11   -3       2.82    78.88     1.55    48.37     9.30   -25.91     0.01     0.02     0.57     0.09P   37.64R   12.46  
QPR              8   10   -7       0.79    59.46    -4.07    52.01     9.73   -23.76     0.03     0.11     1.70     0.37P   24.54R    6.96  
Stoke            8    9   -3      -2.18    29.78    -3.28    68.25    10.78     7.99     2.77     6.76    30.19    12.89P    1.71R    0.28  
Rotherham        8    9   -7       1.69    69.56    -0.69    46.20     9.93   -31.55     0.01     0.04     0.50     0.09P   47.91R   20.53  
Hull             8    7   -4      -3.56    18.42    -3.16    57.83    10.28    -6.78     0.27     0.74     6.41     1.85P   10.66R    2.56  
Birmingham       8    6   -2      -2.35    26.79     1.64    45.91     9.21   -19.43     0.00     0.01     0.30     0.05P   46.01R   18.14  
Millwall         8    6   -4      -3.97    15.43    -2.70    55.01     9.81    -8.54     0.04     0.18     3.24     0.85P   14.98R    3.81  
Reading          8    5   -4      -4.35    12.57    -1.40    47.54     9.77   -19.83     0.02     0.05     0.60     0.17P   39.95R   15.25  
Preston          8    5   -8      -5.51     6.62    -7.30    53.30     9.91   -13.63     0.06     0.17     2.31     0.58P   20.13R    5.58  
Ipswich          8    4   -6      -5.60     6.53    -3.95    49.94     9.81   -15.23     0.02     0.08     1.07     0.28P   30.50R    9.84  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 September 2018, AFC_Wimbledon 2 3 Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth            8   20  +10       7.70    97.72     8.03    78.46    10.33    19.40    12.04    26.01    70.09    36.26P    0.18R    0.00  
Peterborough          8   19  +11       5.70    92.40     7.44    82.26    10.59    28.02    22.43    40.77    80.81    50.93P    0.11R    0.01  
Barnsley              8   15  +10       0.03    49.16     3.99    82.43    10.85    32.94    24.31    42.72    81.17    55.71P    0.12R    0.00  
Sunderland            8   15   +7       0.66    55.40     1.83    82.93    10.93    31.11    25.62    44.34    81.83    56.20P    0.09R    0.01  
Doncaster             8   15   +7       3.46    80.73     6.12    70.59    10.27    12.21     3.07     8.19    40.69    15.67P    1.46R    0.11  
Walsall               8   15   +2       4.30    86.07     2.42    65.49    10.26    -0.45     1.14     3.43    22.47     7.07P    4.59R    0.39  
Charlton              8   14   +3       2.06    70.09     1.59    71.91    10.22    11.59     3.54     9.88    45.30    18.73P    1.07R    0.06  
Fleetwood_Town        8   13   +7       1.09    60.82     5.66    69.37    10.32    13.34     2.58     7.12    36.39    14.21P    1.82R    0.12  
Blackpool             8   13   +3       1.18    61.96     1.64    65.07    10.14     3.31     0.89     3.02    21.81     7.36P    4.51R    0.40  
Accrington_Stanley    8   11   +0       1.30    63.91     1.83    56.48    10.62    -9.91     0.20     0.70     6.50     1.77P   21.56R    4.21  
Luton                 8   11   +0       0.41    55.21     0.62    64.00    11.03     1.29     1.04     3.12    20.68     7.19P    7.53R    0.95  
Coventry              8   11   -1       1.37    64.75     0.73    55.17    10.16   -11.28     0.11     0.37     4.62     1.18P   24.27R    4.35  
Rochdale              8   11   -3       0.99    61.03    -1.40    61.47    10.35    -5.78     0.37     1.38    13.10     3.65P   10.15R    1.40  
Burton_Albion         8   10   -1      -1.23    38.37    -1.40    61.43    10.67    -1.83     0.53     1.80    14.45     4.75P   10.19R    1.39  
Scunthorpe            8   10   -6      -1.46    36.05    -6.59    66.24    10.60    -0.07     1.31     4.16    25.37     9.38P    4.65R    0.53  
AFC_Wimbledon         8    8   -5      -0.80    43.58    -1.90    52.55     9.81   -15.24     0.03     0.15     2.29     0.52P   32.65R    7.08  
Shrewsbury            8    7   -1      -4.24    13.80    -1.56    61.53    10.06     2.88     0.38     1.43    12.96     4.35P    8.53R    1.11  
Southend              8    7   -4      -3.41    19.71    -3.16    57.24    10.33    -7.05     0.18     0.61     6.84     1.97P   18.36R    3.13  
Wycombe               8    7   -4      -1.72    34.19    -0.72    46.05    10.12   -24.19     0.00     0.03     0.73     0.12P   58.74R   22.30  
Gillingham            8    7   -5      -2.61    25.63    -2.85    53.32    10.14   -13.84     0.05     0.19     3.05     0.71P   30.28R    6.77  
Bradford              8    6   -7      -3.78    16.45    -5.38    54.45    10.15   -12.34     0.09     0.30     3.71     1.06P   26.36R    5.36  
Bristol_Rovers        8    5   -4      -5.15     8.95    -2.71    51.41    10.14   -12.70     0.03     0.11     2.26     0.56P   36.52R    9.00  
Oxford_Utd            8    5   -9      -4.46    12.04    -6.49    51.80    10.29   -17.63     0.04     0.15     2.38     0.56P   36.23R    9.30  
Plymouth              8    3  -10      -6.41     3.66    -7.72    45.73     9.78   -23.77     0.00     0.02     0.47     0.11P   60.04R   22.00  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 September 2018, Carlisle 0 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City      8   19  +10       5.80    92.98     6.67    79.21    10.27    22.11    15.80    41.47    74.62    49.72P    0.01R    0.00  
Exeter            8   16   +7       3.01    77.57     3.90    78.61    10.38    22.85    14.78    40.00    73.02    48.93P    0.01R    0.00  
Newport_County    8   16   -4       6.36    94.89    -2.02    62.79    10.00   -11.82     0.56     3.50    16.42     5.51P    1.23R    0.26  
Colchester        8   15  +12       1.59    65.20     8.36    77.28    10.19    27.27    12.32    35.75    69.56    45.20P    0.02R    0.00  
Yeovil            7   14  +12       4.09    86.77    11.57    70.98    10.50    17.28     4.56    16.80    45.78    22.98P    0.18R    0.02  
Oldham            8   14   +6      -0.39    45.31     0.94    77.13    10.83    22.43    12.95    35.24    67.31    44.95P    0.03R    0.01  
Bury              8   13   +4       0.02    49.84     0.90    74.44    11.00    18.20     8.66    26.54    57.98    35.30P    0.10R    0.02  
Tranmere          8   13   +3       3.03    78.10     4.38    63.04    10.63     0.32     1.01     4.77    19.39     7.77P    1.52R    0.36  
MK_Dons           7   13   +3       1.35    63.52    -0.06    79.88    10.84    22.71    18.58    44.63    75.49    54.34P    0.02R    0.01  
Crawley_Town      8   13   +1       2.90    77.28     2.35    62.40    10.17    -3.15     0.64     3.48    16.37     5.89P    1.46R    0.32  
Carlisle          8   13   -1       1.59    65.95    -1.67    67.78    10.18     3.07     2.02     9.30    32.15    14.43P    0.38R    0.05  
Forest_Green      8   12   +5       2.36    73.24     7.10    60.14    10.17    -1.29     0.45     2.34    12.21     4.22P    2.22R    0.55  
Stevenage         8   12   +1      -0.09    49.49    -0.62    62.08    10.10    -1.97     0.58     3.52    15.84     6.10P    1.31R    0.26  
Swindon           8   12   -1      -0.12    48.93    -2.74    67.87    10.41     4.50     2.11     9.90    33.27    15.32P    0.44R    0.07  
Mansfield         7   10   +3      -0.98    39.56     0.97    70.39    10.27    13.37     3.57    14.24    42.86    22.02P    0.18R    0.03  
Port_Vale         8   10   +1      -0.80    42.75     1.18    60.53    10.01    -1.01     0.41     2.33    12.56     4.51P    2.03R    0.45  
Crewe             7    8   +1      -1.50    34.99     1.21    58.60    10.65    -3.83     0.36     2.06    10.63     3.87P    3.76R    1.00  
Cheltenham        8    8   -2      -2.51    26.99    -1.35    55.07    10.01    -9.57     0.08     0.72     5.00     1.63P    6.41R    1.68  
Cambridge_Utd     8    7   -8      -2.82    23.80    -6.32    55.29    10.04   -13.53     0.08     0.70     4.98     1.63P    6.47R    1.94  
Northampton       8    6   -5      -5.30     9.11    -5.45    59.02    11.00    -3.83     0.45     2.47    12.07     4.96P    4.11R    1.12  
Grimsby           8    5  -10      -3.06    20.86    -5.71    44.56     9.53   -28.59     0.00     0.02     0.33     0.08P   32.67R   12.74  
Morecambe         8    3  -14      -4.37    10.26    -8.58    41.70     9.36   -33.61     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   45.01R   20.72  
Macclesfield      8    2  -10      -4.83     7.29    -3.39    34.80     9.49   -40.35     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   73.19R   51.94  
Notts_County      8    2  -14      -7.57     1.76   -11.59    49.90    10.39   -21.53     0.02     0.22     2.01     0.61P   17.23R    6.43  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 September 2018, AFC_Fylde 3 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Harrogate_Town     11   25  +14       8.34    95.92    11.47    77.78    10.39    21.25    18.39    60.90    27.69P    0.26R    0.01  
Wrexham            11   24  +13       6.21    91.25     9.15    78.40     9.01    22.85    16.67    65.41    29.69P    0.05R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient      11   23  +11       5.05    86.36     6.78    80.32     9.37    25.22    23.43    71.96    36.40P    0.02R    0.00  
Salford_City       11   21   +7       6.57    91.45     7.92    68.18    10.12     6.36     3.32    24.95     7.74P    2.55R    0.10  
AFC_Fylde          11   20  +10       1.64    63.39     5.00    76.43     9.44    22.81    12.87    57.02    25.06P    0.17R    0.00  
Hartlepool         11   20   +4       3.36    76.37     1.61    67.65     9.15     4.24     1.96    20.95     5.99P    1.87R    0.05  
Sutton_United      10   19   +4       4.06    81.98     2.13    71.46     9.46     9.10     5.09    34.70    11.69P    0.79R    0.01  
Solihull_Moors     11   19   -1       6.26    91.54     2.37    62.69     9.09    -6.70     0.47     8.70     1.86P    6.47R    0.30  
Halifax            11   18   +4       4.14    82.44     5.41    62.03     9.09    -0.93     0.50     8.10     1.86P    6.91R    0.24  
Gateshead          11   17   +2       0.66    55.85     0.04    66.62     9.37     4.87     1.69    18.96     5.77P    2.66R    0.11  
Barnet             11   17   -3      -0.57    45.34    -6.71    74.43     9.56    11.03     8.74    47.00    20.38P    0.41R    0.01  
Boreham_Wood       10   16   +0       1.05    59.91    -1.93    66.11     9.30     2.12     1.45    16.79     4.97P    3.06R    0.11  
Maidenhead         11   14   +1      -0.90    43.12     1.30    58.44     9.33    -4.44     0.25     4.50     1.09P   14.31R    1.08  
Ebbsfleet_United   11   14   -1      -0.09    50.26     0.21    64.86     9.35     3.67     1.08    14.28     3.99P    4.28R    0.20  
Barrow             11   12   -2      -2.39    30.22    -1.24    55.26     9.19    -8.51     0.10     2.10     0.47P   23.28R    1.91  
Chesterfield       11   11   -1      -6.44     8.48    -4.59    68.75     9.83    13.71     3.31    27.59    11.25P    2.13R    0.08  
Eastleigh          11   11   -8      -1.34    39.54    -3.91    54.45     9.18   -14.51     0.03     1.54     0.29P   27.04R    2.98  
Bromley            11   10   -1      -5.54    11.39    -1.78    59.25     9.52     0.87     0.31     5.74     1.58P   12.54R    0.93  
Aldershot          11   10  -11      -3.65    21.47    -9.13    57.11     9.22   -11.75     0.09     2.84     0.63P   18.39R    1.59  
Dag_&_Red          11    9   -4      -7.13     5.77    -5.68    57.84     9.50    -2.55     0.23     4.20     1.16P   16.02R    1.25  
Havant_&_Wville    11    9   -9      -1.63    37.93    -1.43    41.67     9.46   -35.08     0.00     0.09     0.02P   78.09R   31.22  
Maidstone_United   11    7   -9      -4.69    14.20    -4.16    44.77     8.84   -23.85     0.00     0.08     0.02P   67.99R   17.89  
Braintree_Town     11    6   -8      -4.59    14.32    -1.63    40.15     9.36   -27.78     0.00     0.05     0.01P   81.63R   36.40  
Dover_Athletic     11    6  -12      -8.45     2.56   -11.19    53.80     9.42   -11.99     0.04     1.55     0.40P   29.06R    3.54