Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 17 September 2018 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 17 September 2018, Southampton 2 2 Brighton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea           5   15  +10       4.23    93.83     3.55    78.33     8.84    39.52    10.91    30.72    53.29    73.33    96.38     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         5   15   +9       4.84    96.03     3.29    82.46     8.74    47.08    22.57    51.03    72.00    85.98    98.52     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          5   13  +11       0.80    62.26     0.38    88.49     7.93    66.72    55.68    79.30    91.04    96.59    99.82     0.00     0.00  
Watford           5   12   +5       5.96    97.28     6.41    51.34     9.05    -7.40     0.02     0.09     0.36     1.19     9.69     2.29R    0.21  
Bournemouth       5   10   +3       3.33    86.71     3.66    49.94     9.04    -8.59     0.01     0.06     0.23     0.81     7.65     3.37R    0.37  
Tottenham         5    9   +4      -0.44    42.33    -0.46    76.29     8.57    40.52     6.92    22.59    44.27    66.97    95.02     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           5    9   +1       0.87    60.13    -1.03    69.40     9.24    26.14     1.76     7.35    17.69    33.73    80.28     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd           5    9   +0      -0.31    44.10    -3.65    70.81     8.83    25.51     2.12     8.76    20.49    38.77    85.07     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton     5    8   +0       2.47    80.64     2.40    45.14     9.19   -14.39     0.00     0.02     0.08     0.29     3.29    10.01R    1.54  
Everton           5    6   -1      -2.07    25.08    -2.80    46.79     9.13   -10.70     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.43     4.47     6.84R    0.93  
Leicester         5    6   -1      -0.03    50.10     0.59    51.44     9.37    -3.30     0.01     0.07     0.35     1.35    10.65     2.88R    0.33  
Crystal_Palace    5    6   -2      -0.45    44.52    -1.21    44.18     8.76   -15.04     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.17     2.19    10.48R    1.41  
Southampton       5    5   +0      -2.04    26.60    -0.27    44.15     8.77   -10.99     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.15     2.20    10.37R    1.60  
Brighton          5    5   -2       0.03    53.31     1.14    40.85     8.59   -18.43     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.91    18.86R    3.55  
Fulham            5    4   -5      -0.53    45.48     0.57    37.84     9.41   -28.07     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.84    32.86R    9.05  
West_Ham          5    3   -6      -2.00    24.15    -2.11    40.43     8.94   -22.03     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.90    21.96R    4.65  
Cardiff           5    2   -6      -2.53    18.86    -1.94    32.29     8.66   -32.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08    56.51R   20.46  
Huddersfield      5    2   -9      -1.65    28.04    -2.75    27.10     7.57   -43.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    80.19R   46.36  
Newcastle         5    1   -4      -3.58     9.00    -0.01    43.41     8.88    -9.11     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.08     1.75    12.02R    2.05  
Burnley           5    1   -7      -4.88     3.73    -5.73    37.30     8.45   -21.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.28    31.34R    7.48  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 September 2018, Blackburn 1 1 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United     7   15  +10       4.97    91.16     9.21    75.59    10.60    20.75    10.30    20.63    56.29    28.38P    0.20R    0.02  
Brentford        7   14   +8       2.60    76.42     5.15    76.19    10.52    21.39    11.45    22.34    58.58    31.16P    0.18R    0.03  
Bristol_City     7   14   +6       3.21    80.89     4.17    71.38    10.62    11.79     4.96    11.15    40.23    17.40P    0.75R    0.10  
Middlesbrough    7   14   +6       2.55    75.95     3.30    81.21    10.17    26.34    21.91    37.93    76.26    49.61P    0.03R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        7   12   +3       2.25    72.82     2.79    68.89    10.58     8.03     2.89     7.24    31.38    12.19P    1.31R    0.19  
Swansea          7   12   +2       0.42    54.27    -0.85    74.01    10.87    14.90     8.32    16.88    49.47    26.07P    0.43R    0.04  
Derby            7   12   +1       0.48    54.55    -1.85    72.93    10.52    12.35     6.46    13.96    45.65    22.07P    0.44R    0.06  
West_Brom        7   11   +6      -1.60    32.56     1.24    78.84    11.03    28.08    18.15    31.95    67.51    43.21P    0.13R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed        7   11   +0       0.98    61.14    -0.56    65.61    10.49     1.63     1.65     4.22    21.08     7.75P    2.45R    0.39  
Bolton           7   11   -1       3.37    83.74     2.17    49.20     9.57   -24.91     0.02     0.05     0.79     0.14P   34.25R   10.90  
Wigan            7   10   +1      -0.65    43.36    -0.60    69.21    11.08     9.68     3.94     9.05    33.43    15.36P    1.39R    0.20  
Aston_Villa      7   10   +0      -0.89    40.69    -1.95    71.94    10.45    12.89     5.27    11.82    42.34    19.76P    0.61R    0.09  
Blackburn        7   10   -1       0.54    56.32    -0.76    61.60    10.84    -3.88     0.83     2.20    12.85     4.40P    6.30R    1.21  
Rotherham        7    9   -5       2.23    74.78    -0.13    47.30    10.33   -30.36     0.01     0.07     0.89     0.17P   43.39R   17.98  
Nott'm_Forest    7    8   +0      -0.04    51.47     2.48    56.83    10.42    -7.25     0.20     0.61     5.50     1.44P   12.69R    3.20  
Norwich          7    8   -2      -1.01    40.41    -1.01    59.37    10.61    -5.99     0.42     1.26     9.00     2.75P    8.67R    1.82  
Hull             7    7   -3      -2.66    24.19    -2.93    59.16    10.67    -5.86     0.40     1.25     8.63     2.73P    9.22R    2.06  
QPR              7    7   -9      -0.55    45.58    -5.61    49.23    10.09   -27.85     0.01     0.09     1.09     0.23P   35.28R   12.47  
Millwall         7    6   -2      -2.88    22.01    -1.10    57.60    10.22    -4.56     0.18     0.66     5.94     1.83P   10.71R    2.45  
Stoke            7    6   -4      -3.64    16.59    -4.02    66.59    11.27     6.93     2.45     6.00    25.92    11.37P    2.88R    0.54  
Birmingham       7    5   -2      -2.49    24.55     0.92    44.87     9.48   -21.98     0.01     0.02     0.22     0.05P   50.74R   21.20  
Reading          7    5   -3      -3.06    20.13    -0.51    49.61    10.28   -17.66     0.03     0.09     1.30     0.28P   32.80R   11.46  
Preston          7    5   -5      -4.90     8.26    -5.49    55.89    10.29    -8.78     0.13     0.46     4.41     1.31P   14.07R    3.48  
Ipswich          7    3   -6      -5.33     5.71    -4.08    50.00    10.11   -15.69     0.02     0.08     1.24     0.33P   31.07R   10.08  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 September 2018, AFC_Wimbledon 2 3 Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth            8   20  +10       7.75    97.68     8.10    78.38    10.25    19.27    11.61    25.36    69.79    35.54P    0.18R    0.01  
Peterborough          8   19  +11       5.70    92.24     7.44    82.21    10.61    27.94    22.12    40.57    80.62    50.75P    0.09R    0.00  
Barnsley              8   15  +10      -0.04    48.07     3.89    82.58    10.71    33.18    24.24    43.10    81.65    56.04P    0.07R    0.00  
Sunderland            8   15   +7       0.59    54.82     1.78    83.12    10.99    31.28    26.29    45.01    82.09    57.14P    0.08R    0.00  
Doncaster             8   15   +7       3.43    80.65     6.07    70.61    10.21    12.26     3.04     8.22    40.74    15.68P    1.40R    0.10  
Walsall               8   15   +2       4.37    86.46     2.51    65.46    10.30    -0.48     1.08     3.36    22.39     6.96P    4.65R    0.43  
Charlton              8   14   +3       2.14    70.63     1.68    71.64    10.28    11.20     3.65     9.78    44.12    18.37P    1.18R    0.10  
Fleetwood_Town        8   13   +7       1.15    61.46     5.70    69.40    10.39    13.32     2.55     7.15    36.97    14.17P    1.91R    0.17  
Blackpool             8   13   +3       1.16    61.62     1.63    65.20    10.15     3.48     1.06     3.23    21.91     7.47P    4.36R    0.36  
Accrington_Stanley    8   11   +0       1.23    63.24     1.75    56.76    10.50    -9.43     0.16     0.67     6.58     1.78P   20.47R    3.69  
Luton                 8   11   +0       0.42    55.10     0.64    64.01    11.05     1.21     1.01     3.21    20.79     7.34P    7.62R    1.04  
Coventry              8   11   -1       1.38    65.08     0.72    54.97    10.07   -11.57     0.08     0.30     4.24     0.99P   24.75R    4.49  
Rochdale              8   11   -3       0.96    60.59    -1.41    61.39    10.37    -5.95     0.44     1.51    13.05     3.81P   10.26R    1.28  
Burton_Albion         8   10   -1      -1.25    38.51    -1.42    61.43    10.66    -1.82     0.52     1.69    14.37     4.57P   10.15R    1.48  
Scunthorpe            8   10   -6      -1.46    35.95    -6.62    66.46    10.51     0.29     1.43     4.13    25.81     9.36P    4.25R    0.46  
AFC_Wimbledon         8    8   -5      -0.75    43.73    -1.86    52.61     9.72   -15.14     0.02     0.12     2.17     0.50P   32.12R    7.09  
Shrewsbury            8    7   -1      -4.26    13.53    -1.59    61.54    10.14     2.92     0.37     1.38    13.46     4.55P    8.68R    1.07  
Southend              8    7   -4      -3.38    19.86    -3.09    56.89    10.30    -7.58     0.15     0.53     6.49     1.89P   19.33R    3.37  
Wycombe               8    7   -4      -1.69    34.77    -0.67    45.98    10.14   -24.25     0.01     0.04     0.72     0.16P   58.66R   22.59  
Gillingham            8    7   -5      -2.65    25.35    -2.90    53.42    10.09   -13.62     0.03     0.18     3.29     0.74P   30.11R    6.46  
Bradford              8    6   -7      -3.78    16.44    -5.36    54.35    10.12   -12.54     0.05     0.20     3.56     0.90P   26.92R    5.60  
Bristol_Rovers        8    5   -4      -5.15     9.03    -2.75    51.46    10.12   -12.67     0.04     0.13     2.23     0.58P   36.44R    8.77  
Oxford_Utd            8    5   -9      -4.42    12.60    -6.42    51.72    10.34   -17.76     0.02     0.14     2.46     0.61P   36.69R    9.53  
Plymouth              8    3  -10      -6.46     3.47    -7.83    45.84     9.80   -23.54     0.00     0.01     0.49     0.10P   59.63R   21.91  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 September 2018, Carlisle 0 2 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City      8   19  +10       5.77    93.14     6.64    79.24    10.20    22.14    15.89    41.35    74.81    49.67P    0.01R    0.00  
Exeter            8   16   +7       3.07    77.74     4.00    78.43    10.41    22.57    14.31    39.26    72.35    48.10P    0.02R    0.00  
Newport_County    8   16   -4       6.34    94.88    -2.06    62.90     9.98   -11.65     0.65     3.30    16.59     5.39P    1.14R    0.25  
Colchester        8   15  +12       1.55    64.79     8.31    77.43    10.24    27.49    12.85    35.98    69.98    45.74P    0.02R    0.01  
Yeovil            7   14  +12       4.15    86.93    11.64    70.94    10.52    17.24     4.45    16.67    45.48    22.98P    0.17R    0.03  
Oldham            8   14   +6      -0.49    44.15     0.77    77.53    10.73    23.02    13.40    36.70    69.12    46.70P    0.03R    0.01  
Bury              8   13   +4      -0.01    49.67     0.89    74.56    11.11    18.40     8.96    27.32    58.60    36.05P    0.12R    0.03  
Tranmere          8   13   +3       3.06    78.22     4.44    62.79    10.50    -0.08     0.86     4.32    18.21     7.17P    1.62R    0.42  
MK_Dons           7   13   +3       1.40    64.25     0.02    79.60    10.83    22.28    17.75    43.41    74.89    52.94P    0.01R    0.00  
Crawley_Town      8   13   +1       2.88    77.17     2.31    62.73    10.19    -2.70     0.63     3.65    17.18     6.15P    1.28R    0.28  
Carlisle          8   13   -1       1.61    65.85    -1.64    67.63    10.30     2.83     2.08     9.23    31.64    14.16P    0.41R    0.10  
Forest_Green      8   12   +5       2.39    73.67     7.15    60.08    10.15    -1.27     0.39     2.24    12.28     3.96P    2.19R    0.53  
Stevenage         8   12   +1      -0.08    49.50    -0.62    62.10    10.15    -2.01     0.57     3.37    15.97     6.08P    1.43R    0.28  
Swindon           8   12   -1      -0.11    48.98    -2.74    68.00    10.48     4.69     2.39    10.37    33.37    15.99P    0.41R    0.07  
Mansfield         7   10   +3      -0.97    39.60     0.95    70.35    10.33    13.32     3.54    14.44    42.98    22.17P    0.22R    0.03  
Port_Vale         8   10   +1      -0.81    42.27     1.19    60.43     9.93    -1.15     0.38     2.37    12.08     4.40P    2.01R    0.44  
Crewe             7    8   +1      -1.54    34.55     1.12    58.69    10.59    -3.69     0.35     2.08    10.54     3.88P    3.71R    0.91  
Cheltenham        8    8   -2      -2.49    27.07    -1.32    54.88    10.05    -9.86     0.08     0.66     4.89     1.54P    6.55R    1.85  
Cambridge_Utd     8    7   -8      -2.88    23.52    -6.41    55.32     9.93   -13.49     0.06     0.67     4.81     1.42P    6.14R    1.75  
Northampton       8    6   -5      -5.24     9.33    -5.37    58.78    10.97    -4.22     0.35     2.36    11.59     4.76P    4.10R    1.25  
Grimsby           8    5  -10      -3.11    20.28    -5.78    44.71     9.60   -28.31     0.01     0.03     0.37     0.09P   32.24R   12.38  
Morecambe         8    3  -14      -4.40    10.40    -8.64    41.82     9.28   -33.38     0.00     0.01     0.20     0.05P   44.71R   19.86  
Macclesfield      8    2  -10      -4.76     7.64    -3.26    34.55     9.41   -40.81     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   74.29R   53.22  
Notts_County      8    2  -14      -7.57     1.79   -11.59    49.96    10.44   -21.35     0.03     0.22     2.03     0.61P   17.18R    6.31  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 September 2018, AFC_Fylde 3 0 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Harrogate_Town     11   25  +14       8.40    96.00    11.56    77.63    10.43    21.09    17.56    60.30    26.59P    0.31R    0.00  
Wrexham            11   24  +13       6.19    91.37     9.15    78.48     9.08    22.93    16.65    65.32    29.56P    0.07R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient      11   23  +11       5.02    86.03     6.74    80.33     9.47    25.26    23.42    71.77    36.44P    0.04R    0.00  
Salford_City       11   21   +7       6.60    91.63     7.94    68.23    10.25     6.39     3.51    25.20     7.78P    2.71R    0.10  
AFC_Fylde          11   20  +10       1.56    62.78     4.89    76.74     9.48    23.25    13.61    58.35    26.26P    0.15R    0.01  
Hartlepool         11   20   +4       3.34    76.33     1.62    67.60     9.23     4.12     2.12    20.98     6.13P    1.88R    0.06  
Sutton_United      10   19   +4       4.03    81.82     2.12    71.43     9.45     9.05     4.76    34.67    11.59P    0.84R    0.03  
Solihull_Moors     11   19   -1       6.30    91.62     2.42    62.58     9.19    -6.87     0.54     8.75     1.89P    6.76R    0.29  
Halifax            11   18   +4       4.09    82.02     5.32    62.21     9.08    -0.62     0.51     8.39     1.93P    6.66R    0.32  
Gateshead          11   17   +2       0.62    55.64     0.01    66.88     9.28     5.22     1.83    19.10     5.79P    2.33R    0.06  
Barnet             11   17   -3      -0.53    45.50    -6.65    74.25     9.62    10.79     8.61    45.95    19.83P    0.45R    0.01  
Boreham_Wood       10   16   +0       1.13    60.67    -1.86    66.01     9.37     2.04     1.43    16.74     5.14P    3.09R    0.12  
Maidenhead         11   14   +1      -0.84    43.49     1.37    58.30     9.41    -4.70     0.23     4.46     1.07P   14.65R    1.10  
Ebbsfleet_United   11   14   -1      -0.08    50.39     0.20    64.95     9.34     3.78     1.03    14.19     3.97P    4.13R    0.15  
Barrow             11   12   -2      -2.44    30.16    -1.26    55.26     9.24    -8.52     0.07     2.15     0.49P   23.07R    2.04  
Chesterfield       11   11   -1      -6.50     8.22    -4.62    68.81     9.83    13.77     3.39    27.57    11.16P    2.03R    0.09  
Eastleigh          11   11   -8      -1.36    39.57    -3.95    54.37     9.25   -14.65     0.05     1.57     0.34P   27.49R    2.98  
Bromley            11   10   -1      -5.59    11.46    -1.91    59.27     9.49     0.91     0.30     5.68     1.69P   12.26R    0.92  
Aldershot          11   10  -11      -3.78    20.72    -9.33    57.60     9.25   -11.06     0.11     3.27     0.84P   17.01R    1.35  
Dag_&_Red          11    9   -4      -7.08     5.88    -5.62    57.65     9.50    -2.78     0.21     3.94     1.10P   16.32R    1.34  
Havant_&_Wville    11    9   -9      -1.62    38.11    -1.40    41.64     9.53   -35.12     0.00     0.10     0.02P   77.95R   31.16  
Maidstone_United   11    7   -9      -4.66    14.40    -4.13    44.51     8.85   -24.21     0.00     0.09     0.01P   68.65R   18.44  
Braintree_Town     11    6   -8      -4.58    14.26    -1.64    40.18     9.40   -27.83     0.00     0.04     0.00P   81.30R   35.66  
Dover_Athletic     11    6  -12      -8.32     2.54   -10.97    53.59     9.44   -12.24     0.05     1.43     0.40P   29.86R    3.78