Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 7 February 2018 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 5 February 2018, Watford 4 1 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         26   69  +55       9.95    95.19    13.22    95.28     4.08    72.83    99.56    99.98   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   56  +33       5.35    77.95    10.31    78.86     4.46    42.39     0.41    56.95    79.78    92.62   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   51  +28       1.84    59.65     5.80    75.16     4.28    41.38     0.02    21.89    52.28    78.54    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          26   50  +23      -0.91    44.11    -0.73    72.37     4.35    32.44     0.01     7.77    24.61    48.97    99.91     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   49  +27      -3.31    30.84     0.32    73.91     4.27    40.87     0.01    12.92    40.26    69.68    99.95     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   45  +16      -2.44    36.45    -2.64    67.02     4.42    25.11     0.00     0.49     3.07    10.19    97.88     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          26   36   -2       5.39    78.95     5.42    51.60     4.55    -2.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.95     0.00R    0.00  
Leicester        26   35   +3      -0.81    46.00     3.74    52.19     4.55     3.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.14     0.00R    0.00  
Bournemouth      26   31   -7       0.45    53.30     2.97    46.00     4.52    -9.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.62R    0.04  
Everton          26   31  -16      -2.14    38.57   -10.66    48.73     4.72   -14.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.19R    0.01  
Watford          26   30   -8       1.36    58.35     4.88    43.57     4.36   -14.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.09R    0.13  
West_Ham         26   27  -14      -3.85    30.01    -4.52    39.75     4.35   -21.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.55R    1.65  
Brighton         26   27  -14      -0.85    46.18    -2.02    38.81     4.19   -21.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.00R    2.75  
Crystal_Palace   26   27  -15      -1.64    41.44    -2.64    40.13     4.40   -20.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.38R    1.74  
Southampton      26   26  -10      -8.06    12.55    -6.58    40.00     4.51   -13.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.93R    1.49  
Newcastle        26   25  -12      -5.29    23.21    -2.77    37.48     4.32   -18.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.10R    5.30  
Swansea          26   24  -18      -2.46    36.83    -2.94    37.36     4.32   -23.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.53R    6.67  
Stoke            26   24  -26      -1.98    39.66    -8.71    34.81     4.16   -36.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.17R   17.31  
Huddersfield     26   24  -27       5.19    80.47     2.08    32.98     3.90   -41.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.71R   34.83  
West_Brom        26   20  -16      -8.46    10.63    -4.54    33.12     4.28   -20.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.73R   28.08  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 February 2018, Aston_Villa 3 2 Burton_Albion; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Wolverhampton   30   68  +32      16.25    97.92    16.44    95.08     5.43    39.65    85.48    96.42    99.99    97.38P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           30   57  +24       5.44    74.69     8.86    84.28     5.44    31.77     8.06    48.42    96.99    63.67P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     30   56  +19       8.43    85.07     9.48    80.69     5.53    23.02     2.47    19.93    88.56    37.19P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         29   54  +18       8.29    84.88     9.24    81.15     5.70    23.77     3.16    23.19    89.45    39.40P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          30   51  +16       1.55    57.10     3.21    76.83     5.65    21.92     0.64     7.51    70.07    24.30P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    30   51   +9       8.85    85.94     7.47    74.28     5.59    11.03     0.12     2.52    48.77    11.13P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         30   48   +8       4.25    70.23     3.94    70.89     5.55     9.60     0.02     0.71    26.80     6.32P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       30   46   +6       3.92    68.14     4.56    69.16     5.69     7.70     0.01     0.31    18.70     4.10P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   30   45  +10      -2.96    35.98     0.04    71.03     5.49    15.89     0.03     0.70    29.45     9.40P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    30   44   +4       0.16    51.14    -0.11    66.18     5.45     4.51     0.00     0.06     7.56     1.75P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       30   43   +3      -0.56    47.31    -0.58    67.26     5.69     6.28     0.00     0.12    11.54     2.77P    0.00R    0.00  
Ipswich         30   43   +2       2.25    61.28     2.50    65.16     5.54     2.44     0.00     0.04     5.34     1.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Norwich         30   43   -3      -1.04    45.27    -7.33    65.89     5.53    -1.52     0.00     0.06     6.09     1.43P    0.00R    0.00  
Millwall        30   38   +2       0.64    53.87     7.19    58.84     5.60     0.59     0.00     0.00     0.56     0.10P    0.54R    0.01  
QPR             30   36  -10      -0.51    48.13    -3.51    54.86     5.39   -14.63     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    3.11R    0.10  
Nott'm_Forest   30   35  -13       0.03    50.79    -3.36    54.80     5.50   -16.27     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    3.40R    0.16  
Sheff_Wed       30   33   -6      -9.12    12.58    -7.91    54.89     5.51    -5.77     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    2.72R    0.10  
Reading         30   32   -6      -7.50    17.89    -3.70    51.63     5.42    -9.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.46R    0.51  
Birmingham      30   30  -19      -1.64    42.22    -6.16    47.20     5.22   -25.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.34R    4.53  
Bolton          29   29  -19      -1.52    43.25    -5.59    47.21     5.51   -26.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.60R    5.43  
Barnsley        30   27  -15      -6.99    18.99    -4.38    45.79     5.36   -19.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.35R    7.38  
Hull            30   26   -7     -14.70     3.60    -6.18    47.94     5.63    -7.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.36R    3.81  
Sunderland      30   25  -21     -10.70     9.13   -12.76    43.21     5.44   -26.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.27R   17.10  
Burton_Albion   30   24  -34      -2.26    39.18   -11.37    38.37     4.97   -45.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.84R   60.88  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 6 February 2018, Bury 2 1 AFC_Wimbledon; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wigan            28   63  +42       5.25    75.73    13.49    99.72     5.61    59.64    88.37    97.90   100.00    98.90P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury       29   61  +18      19.57    99.34    15.28    86.80     5.77    21.65     3.65    35.13    99.49    49.01P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn        30   59  +25       2.68    62.00     2.14    89.14     5.49    37.45     7.81    62.13    99.89    77.14P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       31   54  +13       3.31    65.12     0.84    78.54     5.32    18.89     0.14     3.50    91.32    29.07P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham        30   50  +14       3.71    66.88     6.47    73.98     5.69    17.03     0.02     0.89    71.20    16.70P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         31   48   -2       2.41    61.58    -6.53    69.48     5.30    -0.63     0.00     0.08    34.17     7.45P    0.01R    0.00  
Charlton         29   46   +3       3.50    67.12    -0.94    69.84     5.86     3.86     0.01     0.23    39.12     8.31P    0.03R    0.00  
Peterborough     29   43   +8      -0.23    49.08     3.08    68.48     5.87    11.15     0.00     0.14    33.49     7.45P    0.08R    0.00  
Portsmouth       30   43   +1       2.63    62.87     2.08    63.73     5.59    -0.55     0.00     0.01     9.10     1.69P    0.58R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd       30   41   +2      -2.36    38.92    -1.08    63.48     5.55     2.58     0.00     0.00     8.87     1.86P    0.69R    0.01  
Plymouth         31   41   -4       3.12    65.28     2.55    59.26     5.31    -7.21     0.00     0.00     1.86     0.32P    3.50R    0.03  
Gillingham       30   40   +0       1.16    56.30     3.58    61.89     5.59    -0.11     0.00     0.00     5.32     0.97P    1.49R    0.03  
Bristol_Rovers   30   39   -4       0.25    51.71     0.43    58.83     5.57    -7.69     0.00     0.00     1.76     0.25P    5.57R    0.17  
Doncaster        31   38   -1      -2.18    40.18     2.49    57.22     5.34    -2.95     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.16P    7.48R    0.17  
Southend         30   37  -13      -1.28    43.97    -8.32    57.48     5.51   -15.43     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.14P    9.13R    0.33  
Walsall          29   36   -5      -2.38    38.81    -2.93    57.99     5.66    -6.88     0.00     0.00     1.28     0.23P    7.50R    0.23  
Fleetwood_Town   30   36   -6      -5.61    24.84    -6.53    58.30     5.54    -5.49     0.00     0.00     1.32     0.29P    6.28R    0.12  
Blackpool        30   34   -6      -2.07    40.87     1.30    53.06     5.41   -10.31     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   26.47R    1.51  
AFC_Wimbledon    30   34   -6      -1.90    41.11     1.01    53.38     5.34    -9.48     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P   24.13R    1.49  
Northampton      31   33  -23       1.12    56.80    -6.08    49.14     5.15   -29.97     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    59.65R    8.50  
Oldham           31   32  -13      -2.40    39.02    -1.13    48.84     5.08   -18.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.62R    8.38  
MK_Dons          29   30  -12      -6.96    18.83    -7.85    51.11     5.64   -15.21     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   41.35R    4.60  
Rochdale         27   25  -10     -10.30     8.65    -7.35    49.20     6.09   -13.04     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   52.79R    9.40  
Bury             30   24  -21      -7.32    17.35    -5.98    40.97     5.23   -28.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.66R   65.02  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 February 2018, Accrington_Stanley 3 2 Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Luton                31   63  +37       3.57    66.45    10.76    91.70     5.18    49.98    84.05    97.89    99.97    98.62P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              30   55  +16       6.90    79.83     5.37    80.84     5.63    21.83     5.35    49.52    90.45    59.98P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         30   54  +19       9.11    86.68    13.62    77.03     5.68    20.55     1.80    24.87    75.23    35.46P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            30   53  +13       6.73    79.37     5.32    76.75     5.52    15.59     1.46    21.59    71.94    33.55P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   29   52  +15       5.26    73.90     4.58    78.53     5.72    19.92     3.13    33.90    81.45    46.13P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               29   51   +6       7.00    81.03    -0.30    77.70     5.80    11.09     1.89    26.04    75.25    37.81P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon              30   51   +5       2.98    63.48    -5.40    76.59     5.67    10.47     1.07    20.38    69.30    33.33P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             30   50  +12       0.34    51.47    -0.30    76.24     5.54    18.22     1.14    19.69    70.76    36.45P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         30   49  +13       6.74    79.20    11.43    71.11     5.57    13.37     0.09     4.58    34.56    10.64P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester           31   46   +5      -1.15    44.69    -1.79    67.66     5.41     6.62     0.01     1.00    15.22     4.64P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       31   46   +3       6.71    79.58     8.03    65.65     5.30     1.77     0.00     0.29     7.36     1.43P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         31   45   -2       6.61    79.19     3.93    63.40     5.15    -5.17     0.00     0.08     2.83     0.56P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             30   41   +1      -0.95    45.83     0.09    63.72     5.63     1.89     0.00     0.18     4.72     1.18P    0.02R    0.00  
Stevenage            31   38   -4      -3.83    32.67    -2.59    58.24     5.32    -4.56     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.08P    0.26R    0.05  
Cambridge_Utd        30   38  -13      -0.36    48.84    -9.24    58.46     5.46   -15.14     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.09P    0.28R    0.04  
Cheltenham           31   36   -5      -2.06    40.62     1.89    54.43     5.20    -8.47     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    1.63R    0.31  
Grimsby              32   36  -15      -1.49    43.62    -5.63    51.93     4.92   -19.73     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    4.76R    1.13  
Yeovil               30   34   -7      -3.26    35.02    -0.73    51.69     5.34   -13.91     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     5.50R    1.50  
Port_Vale            31   34   -7      -9.40    13.22    -8.42    55.37     5.40    -5.82     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.04P    1.24R    0.30  
Morecambe            31   31  -12      -4.06    31.47    -0.72    48.72     5.15   -16.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.71R    5.03  
Crewe                30   29  -18      -5.94    23.01    -7.82    47.76     5.38   -23.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.27R    8.05  
Forest_Green         31   29  -21      -1.90    41.61    -1.96    44.68     5.16   -29.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.56R   20.78  
Chesterfield         31   27  -24      -9.31    12.70   -13.79    44.86     5.38   -28.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.98R   20.16  
Barnet               30   22  -17     -12.18     5.50    -6.32    41.26     5.41   -21.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.78R   42.66  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 February 2018, AFC_Fylde 2 2 Eastleigh; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Wrexham            32   56  +13       9.13    86.41     8.14    76.71     5.07    15.35    10.39    61.32    20.86P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield       31   56   +6       9.68    87.76     0.17    77.78     5.31     7.99    14.47    66.84    25.08P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot          31   55  +17       3.36    65.48     3.49    78.87     5.31    21.88    22.67    75.83    36.88P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere           32   54  +21      -5.08    26.77    -1.41    78.95     5.05    29.40    23.82    79.77    44.74P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      30   52   +9      10.03    88.95     7.67    76.20     5.61    12.37    10.46    56.37    18.87P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     31   51  +17      -1.22    43.89     2.39    75.84     5.42    23.27    10.06    57.74    23.80P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            31   50  +16       3.22    64.91     9.67    72.31     5.39    18.61     3.08    31.94     9.26P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       31   50  +13       4.60    71.20     8.44    72.42     5.28    15.93     2.88    30.76     9.06P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          32   49  +15       1.77    57.97    10.03    69.89     5.30    17.48     1.02    18.08     4.78P    0.00R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          31   45   +8      -6.16    23.41    -5.01    69.62     5.37    14.24     1.06    16.73     5.55P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          32   44   +1      -0.79    46.59    -0.14    62.81     5.18     0.32     0.03     1.22     0.25P    0.17R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   32   43   +2       2.25    60.87     6.42    61.18     5.23     0.62     0.00     0.57     0.15P    0.41R    0.00  
Maidenhead         31   41   -1       2.25    60.75     4.86    59.00     5.36    -4.98     0.00     0.25     0.03P    1.28R    0.00  
Gateshead          30   40   +7      -6.27    22.20    -0.67    63.30     5.53     9.14     0.04     2.28     0.63P    0.22R    0.00  
Woking             31   39   -8       0.26    51.94    -1.68    58.07     5.37   -10.56     0.00     0.16     0.03P    2.59R    0.00  
Maidstone_United   31   38  -10       2.70    63.78     1.38    55.89     5.26   -14.17     0.00     0.04     0.01P    6.30R    0.05  
Leyton_Orient      31   35   -7     -10.19    11.83   -11.01    56.79     5.47    -5.21     0.00     0.07     0.02P    4.00R    0.02  
Hartlepool         31   34  -10      -9.22    14.13   -11.12    55.85     5.41    -8.12     0.00     0.03     0.01P    6.17R    0.04  
Halifax            31   34  -11       0.44    53.16     2.11    50.76     5.27   -16.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.78R    0.57  
Barrow             30   31   -6      -9.80    11.30    -5.45    52.61     5.57    -6.48     0.00     0.01     0.00P   15.06R    0.24  
Solihull_Moors     31   30  -14      -4.61    29.02    -1.92    46.82     5.12   -19.72     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.03R    2.91  
Chester            31   27  -24      -6.44    21.12    -9.86    41.96     5.03   -32.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.07R   16.61  
Torquay            32   24  -25      -9.14    12.45    -9.14    40.08     4.97   -29.74     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.19R   27.31  
Guiseley           30   22  -29      -5.22    24.71    -7.37    37.70     5.19   -38.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.74R   52.25