Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 27 January 2018 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 22 January 2018, Swansea 1 0 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         24   65  +52      10.61    97.14    13.27    95.78     4.45    72.73    98.89    99.90    99.99   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          24   53  +33       5.53    79.84    11.18    79.92     4.75    44.83     0.77    49.89    76.98    91.57    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          24   50  +29       1.28    56.86     4.13    78.02     4.65    43.24     0.30    31.19    64.26    85.68    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        24   47  +25       1.97    60.58     5.22    74.79     4.71    39.80     0.03    12.52    35.02    65.12    99.91     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        24   45  +25      -4.13    25.71    -0.89    72.63     4.77    38.76     0.02     6.00    20.70    46.19    99.45     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          24   42  +14      -1.09    43.16    -2.02    67.99     4.85    24.89     0.00     0.51     3.04    11.42    95.91     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        24   34   +4       0.88    55.30     4.58    54.71     5.02     5.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.69     0.00R    0.00  
Burnley          24   34   -2       5.70    81.12     4.77    51.31     4.91    -4.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.02R    0.00  
Everton          24   28  -13      -3.21    32.27    -9.26    48.28     5.13   -11.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.46R    0.03  
Watford          24   26  -11       0.45    53.87     2.72    40.94     4.74   -19.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.91R    1.52  
West_Ham         24   26  -12      -2.56    35.94    -3.35    41.98     4.81   -18.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     6.10R    0.86  
Bournemouth      24   25  -11      -2.03    38.81     0.10    41.65     4.82   -15.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     7.05R    1.17  
Crystal_Palace   24   25  -15      -0.95    45.12    -2.70    40.59     4.86   -20.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.09R    2.03  
Huddersfield     24   24  -22       5.56    82.42     2.58    34.06     4.17   -39.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.00R   25.75  
Newcastle        24   23  -12      -4.87    23.94    -3.14    38.11     4.79   -18.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.83R    5.18  
Brighton         24   23  -16      -1.71    40.95    -3.39    36.77     4.65   -24.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.66R    9.54  
Stoke            24   23  -25      -0.87    45.72    -8.56    36.52     4.68   -35.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.50R   11.45  
Southampton      24   22  -11      -8.84     9.19    -6.92    39.02     4.89   -14.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.53R    3.66  
West_Brom        24   20  -12      -7.12    13.71    -3.35    35.07     4.62   -18.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.69R   15.41  
Swansea          24   20  -20      -3.82    28.15    -4.99    34.24     4.65   -28.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.18R   23.40  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 27 January 2018, Barnsley 1 3 Fulham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Wolverhampton   29   65  +29      16.10    98.10    15.64    93.43     5.66    36.60    82.13    95.06    99.92    96.34P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           28   53  +21       5.53    75.94     7.77    83.32     5.90    29.31    10.53    48.24    93.79    61.79P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         28   51  +15       7.71    83.64     7.76    78.84     5.88    19.73     2.67    17.44    77.36    31.70P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    29   51  +10       9.82    88.93     7.91    76.00     5.82    12.50     0.69     6.98    59.12    17.01P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     28   50  +17       6.34    79.36     9.16    78.16     5.87    22.06     2.23    15.28    75.17    30.76P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          29   48  +14       0.90    54.05     2.78    75.71     5.91    20.69     1.03     8.35    60.72    22.29P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       28   46  +10       4.91    72.68     5.92    72.30     6.16    12.29     0.29     2.98    36.56    10.24P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   28   44  +11      -1.64    41.59     0.47    73.48     5.92    17.92     0.33     3.94    45.84    17.03P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    28   43   +7       0.70    54.00     1.21    68.47     5.91     8.30     0.04     0.62    16.17     4.13P    0.01R    0.00  
Brentford       29   43   +6      -0.66    46.89     0.13    68.68     5.88     9.39     0.03     0.69    17.27     4.55P    0.00R    0.00  
Preston         28   42   +4       2.52    63.33     2.14    67.05     5.93     4.79     0.01     0.34    10.76     2.53P    0.00R    0.00  
Ipswich         29   40   +0       1.23    56.66     1.48    63.08     5.74    -0.25     0.00     0.03     2.84     0.60P    0.07R    0.00  
Norwich         29   40   -4      -2.17    39.64    -7.52    63.91     5.77    -3.01     0.00     0.06     3.48     0.84P    0.06R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   28   35   -8       0.88    55.34    -1.35    57.83     5.92   -11.03     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.06P    1.31R    0.07  
Millwall        28   34   +0      -0.07    50.29     6.22    56.37     5.94    -3.17     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.05P    2.06R    0.15  
QPR             29   33  -11      -1.60    42.75    -3.68    53.28     5.56   -15.66     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    6.16R    0.47  
Sheff_Wed       28   32   -4      -7.98    15.05    -6.68    57.30     5.86    -2.83     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.08P    1.43R    0.08  
Reading         28   29   -6      -7.46    17.06    -3.22    51.89     5.79    -8.60     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    8.95R    0.96  
Barnsley        29   27  -14      -6.17    21.61    -4.01    47.03     5.60   -18.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.87R    6.16  
Bolton          28   26  -20      -2.82    36.29    -5.83    45.08     5.70   -28.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.68R   12.91  
Hull            28   25   -6     -13.42     4.50    -5.76    49.67     6.11    -6.18     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   17.72R    3.02  
Sunderland      28   25  -17      -9.40    11.39   -10.97    46.87     5.91   -21.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.66R    7.33  
Birmingham      28   24  -23      -4.03    29.65    -8.98    42.65     5.47   -31.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.06R   23.62  
Burton_Albion   28   24  -31      -0.82    46.78   -10.59    40.29     5.34   -43.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.96R   45.23  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 27 January 2018, Blackburn 1 1 Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wigan            27   60  +40       4.70    73.79    13.05    98.76     5.83    58.66    82.77    97.35   100.00    98.60P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury       28   58  +17      18.20    99.08    14.67    84.98     5.95    20.41     2.74    24.89    98.29    40.49P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn        28   56  +25       3.15    65.07     3.19    90.25     5.87    39.46    14.36    73.60    99.86    84.07P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       30   51  +12       2.24    60.78     0.72    76.75     5.51    17.67     0.08     2.27    81.70    25.58P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         30   48   -1       3.61    67.02    -5.73    71.27     5.53     0.98     0.00     0.27    43.37    10.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham        29   47  +12       2.94    63.82     5.75    72.62     5.93    15.35     0.01     0.62    57.16    13.94P    0.00R    0.00  
Charlton         28   46   +4       4.68    72.68    -0.29    71.63     6.04     5.48     0.02     0.56    47.12    10.93P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough     28   43   +9       1.14    55.67     4.00    70.61     6.12    13.31     0.01     0.42    43.66    10.61P    0.02R    0.00  
Portsmouth       29   42   +1       3.30    65.96     2.46    64.26     5.80    -0.29     0.00     0.01     9.50     1.88P    0.55R    0.00  
Gillingham       29   40   +2       1.39    57.13     3.79    62.71     5.76     1.03     0.00     0.00     6.35     1.23P    1.11R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   29   39   -3       1.25    56.74     0.84    60.38     5.78    -6.39     0.00     0.00     2.88     0.54P    3.41R    0.03  
Oxford_Utd       29   38   +1      -3.87    31.89    -1.94    61.47     5.76     1.06     0.00     0.00     4.48     0.98P    1.90R    0.02  
Plymouth         30   38   -6       1.64    58.88     0.88    56.78     5.46   -10.49     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.13P    9.58R    0.16  
Doncaster        30   37   -1      -1.84    41.74     2.42    57.24     5.52    -3.37     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.16P    7.69R    0.19  
Fleetwood_Town   29   36   -5      -4.46    29.26    -5.87    59.57     5.75    -4.57     0.00     0.00     2.08     0.43P    4.17R    0.06  
AFC_Wimbledon    28   34   -3      -0.50    48.10     2.06    56.15     5.78    -6.38     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.10P   12.31R    0.49  
Southend         29   34  -14      -2.72    37.22    -9.09    55.19     5.75   -17.52     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.05P   17.96R    0.80  
Walsall          27   33   -4      -3.25    34.28    -2.91    57.33     6.05    -6.55     0.00     0.00     1.07     0.21P   10.00R    0.32  
Blackpool        29   33   -6      -1.62    43.16     1.35    53.35     5.67   -10.39     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.04P   24.97R    1.22  
Northampton      30   33  -22       2.10    61.82    -5.56    50.57     5.41   -28.91     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   47.40R    4.12  
MK_Dons          28   30  -11      -6.10    21.88    -7.56    52.51     5.82   -14.23     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   31.29R    2.18  
Oldham           30   29  -14      -3.85    31.92    -1.82    46.87     5.29   -20.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.27R   11.41  
Rochdale         26   22  -11     -11.59     5.89    -7.84    47.57     6.30   -14.09     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   61.73R   11.38  
Bury             28   20  -22      -8.31    12.75    -6.56    39.40     5.66   -30.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.63R   67.62  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 23 January 2018, Newport_County 1 1 Morecambe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Luton                28   57  +36       2.79    63.45    11.37    91.80     5.72    52.05    84.40    97.81    99.94    98.57P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         29   51  +16       8.95    86.63    12.76    75.37     5.85    17.54     1.27    21.38    70.78    31.41P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   27   49  +15       5.41    75.34     5.21    79.18     6.10    21.31     4.90    45.25    86.51    56.19P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              28   49  +14       4.40    71.06     4.53    77.09     6.00    18.95     2.58    31.97    79.09    44.31P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               27   48   +5       6.96    81.56    -0.94    77.60     6.16    10.28     2.98    32.29    78.52    43.35P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             28   47  +11       0.90    54.32    -0.07    77.03     5.90    18.64     2.05    30.72    79.29    46.67P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            28   47  +10       4.87    73.40     4.25    73.88     5.94    13.13     0.71    14.77    59.97    25.70P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       29   46   +7       7.74    83.59     9.38    68.14     5.69     5.41     0.05     2.28    22.27     5.87P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         28   45  +11       6.45    79.36    10.76    69.84     6.02    11.42     0.15     5.25    34.23    11.18P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon              27   44   +3       1.11    55.12    -5.82    74.02     6.38     8.96     0.89    16.30    58.94    28.08P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester           29   42   +3      -1.59    42.39    -2.58    66.41     5.82     4.68     0.01     1.34    15.87     4.96P    0.01R    0.00  
Crawley_Town         29   39   -4       3.78    69.11     2.46    59.37     5.56    -8.28     0.00     0.04     1.29     0.23P    0.30R    0.03  
Carlisle             28   38   +1      -1.18    44.47     0.05    63.78     5.99     2.47     0.00     0.45     8.14     2.27P    0.04R    0.01  
Cambridge_Utd        28   38   -9       0.99    55.73    -7.28    60.90     5.84   -11.35     0.00     0.08     2.60     0.57P    0.17R    0.02  
Stevenage            28   35   -3      -3.15    34.86    -2.35    58.76     5.92    -4.52     0.00     0.05     1.58     0.39P    0.64R    0.15  
Grimsby              29   35  -11       0.04    50.97    -3.95    55.18     5.58   -15.50     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.02P    2.50R    0.55  
Cheltenham           29   34   -5      -1.43    43.56     1.78    55.30     5.65    -8.20     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.06P    2.18R    0.51  
Port_Vale            29   32   -7      -8.63    14.23    -8.42    56.97     5.81    -4.51     0.00     0.01     0.51     0.17P    1.24R    0.27  
Morecambe            29   30  -11      -2.98    35.63    -0.59    49.86     5.54   -16.21     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    13.81R    4.68  
Crewe                28   29  -14      -4.85    27.05    -6.85    49.80     5.76   -20.29     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   15.62R    5.65  
Yeovil               28   28  -12      -4.57    28.24    -2.76    47.89     5.69   -19.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.49R    9.41  
Chesterfield         29   27  -22      -7.11    18.58   -12.83    48.25     5.82   -25.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.79R    9.56  
Forest_Green         28   26  -19      -2.19    39.92    -2.18    43.86     5.71   -30.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.76R   30.35  
Barnet               28   21  -15     -11.42     5.95    -5.92    42.19     5.79   -20.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.47R   38.80  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 23 January 2018, AFC_Fylde 3 0 Maidstone_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Macclesfield       30   55   +6       9.99    88.84     0.16    78.96     5.50     9.12    21.87    75.25    32.53P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot          30   52  +16       2.23    60.68     3.26    77.11     5.54    20.68    15.67    65.75    29.54P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      30   52   +9      10.04    88.98     7.66    76.20     5.59    12.37    11.06    57.61    19.58P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            29   51  +11       8.84    86.99     7.05    75.47     5.66    12.98     9.42    52.25    17.95P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere           30   50  +18      -4.99    26.28    -2.34    78.17     5.43    27.05    21.48    74.91    41.32P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          30   48  +16       3.44    65.84    10.81    72.26     5.79    19.44     4.22    34.49    10.64P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     30   48  +16      -2.05    39.76     2.66    75.02     5.61    23.54     9.12    53.64    22.09P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            30   47  +13       3.05    64.44     8.81    70.86     5.60    15.84     2.09    24.82     6.75P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       30   47  +10       3.97    69.01     6.88    70.24     5.47    12.21     1.42    19.89     5.33P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red          30   45  +10      -5.00    27.03    -3.30    72.23     5.55    18.15     3.45    33.63    12.40P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   30   43   +8       2.21    60.52     8.29    64.46     5.62     7.45     0.11     3.73     0.88P    0.12R    0.00  
Eastleigh          30   40   +0      -1.57    42.69    -0.52    61.03     5.57    -1.44     0.02     0.89     0.18P    0.71R    0.00  
Maidenhead         30   38   -4       2.16    60.96     4.14    57.10     5.56    -8.42     0.00     0.15     0.02P    3.88R    0.02  
Maidstone_United   30   38   -9       3.64    68.27     1.61    56.69     5.42   -14.01     0.00     0.11     0.02P    4.89R    0.03  
Gateshead          28   36   +6      -6.72    19.92    -0.47    62.50     5.93     8.88     0.07     2.52     0.69P    0.44R    0.00  
Woking             30   36   -9      -1.11    45.37    -2.24    56.12     5.54   -12.10     0.00     0.09     0.02P    5.79R    0.05  
Halifax            29   34   -7       1.14    56.80     2.92    53.55     5.69   -12.32     0.00     0.02     0.00P   13.43R    0.17  
Hartlepool         30   34   -9      -8.10    16.57   -10.64    57.19     5.60    -7.08     0.00     0.09     0.03P    4.10R    0.02  
Leyton_Orient      29   32   -7     -10.39    10.66   -10.95    56.65     5.86    -4.98     0.00     0.12     0.04P    5.29R    0.04  
Barrow             29   31   -4      -8.88    13.35    -4.15    54.37     5.79    -3.90     0.00     0.04     0.01P    9.80R    0.10  
Solihull_Moors     30   27  -16      -5.83    23.43    -3.51    44.01     5.22   -23.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.93R    7.93  
Chester            30   27  -21      -5.98    22.53    -8.38    43.52     5.24   -29.26     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.29R    9.77  
Guiseley           28   22  -26      -4.11    29.35    -7.03    39.69     5.57   -36.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.38R   32.39  
Torquay            30   20  -27     -10.13     8.61   -10.69    37.35     5.31   -33.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.95R   49.47