Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 25 January 2018 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 22 January 2018, Swansea 1 0 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         24   65  +52      10.61    97.16    13.24    95.77     4.43    72.75    98.86    99.92    99.99   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          24   53  +33       5.67    80.18    11.40    79.81     4.73    44.66     0.78    49.26    76.72    91.53    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          24   50  +29       1.25    56.45     4.12    78.05     4.65    43.29     0.31    31.62    64.60    85.73    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        24   47  +25       1.97    60.67     5.29    74.76     4.71    39.79     0.04    12.51    34.76    64.94    99.88     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        24   45  +25      -4.09    25.99    -0.86    72.66     4.75    38.81     0.01     6.11    20.68    46.22    99.50     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          24   42  +14      -1.20    42.51    -2.24    68.03     4.88    24.98     0.00     0.59     3.26    11.57    95.93     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        24   34   +4       0.81    54.92     4.45    54.76     4.98     5.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.62     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          24   34   -2       5.58    80.59     4.64    51.33     4.91    -4.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.84     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          24   28  -13      -3.28    31.66    -9.34    48.33     5.12   -11.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.40R    0.02  
Watford          24   26  -11       0.38    53.52     2.57    40.96     4.72   -19.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.93R    1.32  
West_Ham         24   26  -12      -2.59    35.83    -3.42    42.00     4.81   -18.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     6.00R    0.88  
Bournemouth      24   25  -11      -2.00    39.09     0.16    41.66     4.86   -15.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.02R    1.25  
Crystal_Palace   24   25  -15      -0.94    45.18    -2.65    40.65     4.88   -20.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.92R    2.05  
Huddersfield     24   24  -22       5.67    82.66     2.80    34.02     4.19   -39.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.39R   25.82  
Newcastle        24   23  -12      -4.75    24.67    -2.97    38.07     4.78   -18.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.80R    5.12  
Brighton         24   23  -16      -1.68    40.93    -3.32    36.72     4.60   -24.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.73R    9.37  
Stoke            24   23  -25      -0.86    45.81    -8.56    36.50     4.65   -35.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.63R   11.41  
Southampton      24   22  -11      -8.70     9.48    -6.72    38.95     4.89   -14.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.82R    4.01  
West_Brom        24   20  -12      -7.26    13.29    -3.57    35.16     4.62   -18.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.79R   14.91  
Swansea          24   20  -20      -3.81    28.15    -5.03    34.20     4.65   -28.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.56R   23.83  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 20 January 2018, Aston_Villa 3 1 Barnsley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Wolverhampton   28   62  +28      14.86    97.41    15.15    91.82     5.88    35.63    76.34    92.14    99.79    94.10P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           28   53  +21       5.45    75.72     7.67    83.32     5.88    29.29    14.22    50.57    94.16    63.71P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         28   51  +15       7.77    83.80     7.82    78.78     5.88    19.65     3.58    18.67    78.46    32.95P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     28   50  +17       6.24    79.10     9.04    78.19     5.91    22.13     3.07    16.85    76.46    32.23P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    28   48   +8       9.09    87.61     7.28    74.49     6.00    10.67     0.67     5.07    50.26    13.73P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       28   46  +10       5.06    73.45     6.18    72.16     6.10    12.07     0.34     2.99    36.98    10.37P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          28   45  +12      -0.02    49.59     1.88    74.10     6.10    18.72     0.92     6.17    51.85    18.32P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   28   44  +11      -1.53    42.24     0.65    73.41     5.93    17.80     0.61     4.46    46.79    17.15P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       28   43   +7       0.72    53.85     1.19    70.52     6.05    11.08     0.13     1.74    27.76     7.92P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    28   43   +7       0.74    53.99     1.28    68.46     5.90     8.30     0.07     0.78    17.33     4.67P    0.00R    0.00  
Preston         28   42   +4       2.57    63.30     2.22    66.98     5.97     4.70     0.04     0.40    11.49     2.90P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         28   40   +1       2.16    61.28     1.88    64.51     5.93     0.82     0.01     0.10     5.43     1.21P    0.04R    0.00  
Norwich         28   37   -5      -3.56    32.87    -8.21    61.73     6.01    -4.88     0.00     0.05     2.10     0.55P    0.25R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   28   35   -8       0.84    55.03    -1.41    57.82     5.92   -11.03     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.06P    1.54R    0.08  
Millwall        28   34   +0      -0.09    50.44     6.26    56.34     6.00    -3.23     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.05P    2.35R    0.14  
QPR             28   33   -9      -1.08    45.36    -2.92    54.56     5.81   -13.83     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    4.69R    0.32  
Sheff_Wed       28   32   -4      -8.03    14.83    -6.71    57.33     5.89    -2.79     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.07P    1.59R    0.08  
Reading         28   29   -6      -7.55    16.51    -3.37    51.97     5.83    -8.45     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     9.67R    1.01  
Barnsley        28   27  -12      -5.57    23.70    -3.23    48.41     5.83   -16.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.76R    4.50  
Bolton          28   26  -20      -2.89    36.00    -5.91    45.21     5.72   -27.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.72R   12.93  
Hull            28   25   -6     -13.41     4.55    -5.79    49.68     6.07    -6.12     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   18.55R    3.06  
Sunderland      28   25  -17      -9.45    11.25   -11.07    46.91     5.94   -21.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.97R    7.83  
Birmingham      28   24  -23      -4.17    28.76    -9.14    42.68     5.48   -31.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.48R   23.96  
Burton_Albion   28   24  -31      -0.88    46.68   -10.73    40.33     5.32   -43.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.38R   46.09  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 23 January 2018, Rotherham 2 0 Bradford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wigan            27   60  +40       4.55    73.04    12.82    98.76     5.75    58.68    78.39    97.51   100.00    98.67P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn        27   55  +25       3.93    69.08     3.79    92.01     6.00    41.80    19.93    82.92    99.88    89.55P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury       27   55  +16      17.11    98.81    14.45    83.05     6.15    19.04     1.39    13.79    94.83    30.17P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       29   51  +13       3.36    65.92     1.41    78.59     5.75    19.36     0.23     3.75    85.68    28.58P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         29   48   +3       3.85    68.22    -3.54    73.83     5.67     6.73     0.03     0.71    57.78    14.76P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham        29   47  +12       3.04    64.38     5.85    72.69     5.94    15.47     0.01     0.47    52.80    13.21P    0.00R    0.00  
Charlton         28   46   +4       4.50    72.01    -0.54    71.72     6.01     5.60     0.01     0.46    42.91    10.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough     28   43   +9       1.34    56.93     4.32    70.63     6.06    13.34     0.01     0.35    39.03     9.46P    0.02R    0.00  
Portsmouth       28   42   +2       4.03    69.70     2.53    65.86     6.01     1.08     0.00     0.02    12.89     2.63P    0.27R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd       29   38   +1      -3.78    32.46    -1.83    61.53     5.74     1.09     0.00     0.00     3.60     0.83P    1.42R    0.01  
Doncaster        29   37   +1      -1.22    44.56     3.25    59.30     5.77    -0.31     0.00     0.00     1.66     0.34P    3.39R    0.07  
Gillingham       28   37   +1       0.19    51.67     3.45    60.93     5.91    -0.21     0.00     0.00     3.07     0.57P    2.16R    0.04  
Fleetwood_Town   28   36   -4      -3.31    34.18    -5.20    61.05     5.95    -3.43     0.00     0.00     3.30     0.74P    2.25R    0.02  
Bristol_Rovers   28   36   -5       0.14    51.40    -0.30    58.28     5.96    -9.08     0.00     0.00     1.22     0.22P    6.41R    0.19  
Plymouth         29   35   -7       0.47    53.18     0.53    54.76     5.66   -12.02     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P   15.98R    0.64  
Walsall          27   33   -4      -3.19    34.15    -2.78    57.24     5.99    -6.74     0.00     0.00     0.73     0.12P    8.62R    0.31  
Blackpool        29   33   -6      -1.73    42.27     1.28    53.24     5.66   -10.60     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   22.49R    1.25  
Northampton      29   32  -22       1.95    61.09    -6.34    49.90     5.50   -30.83     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    48.53R    5.31  
AFC_Wimbledon    27   31   -7      -0.91    45.86    -0.20    53.04     5.86   -12.49     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P   24.80R    1.96  
Southend         28   31  -15      -4.17    30.32    -9.76    52.97     5.94   -19.39     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P   27.60R    2.05  
MK_Dons          28   30  -11      -6.18    21.77    -7.65    52.32     5.85   -14.42     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   29.29R    2.25  
Oldham           29   29  -13      -2.86    36.47    -1.42    48.55     5.53   -18.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.38R    7.61  
Rochdale         26   22  -11     -11.59     5.80    -7.83    47.66     6.32   -14.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   57.71R   11.43  
Bury             28   20  -22      -8.20    13.17    -6.29    39.52     5.64   -29.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.65R   66.87  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 23 January 2018, Newport_County 1 1 Morecambe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Luton                28   57  +36       2.72    63.23    11.27    91.82     5.74    52.05    84.61    97.85    99.93    98.58P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         29   51  +16       8.95    86.63    12.84    75.41     5.87    17.60     1.26    21.97    71.02    32.05P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   27   49  +15       5.45    75.47     5.25    79.17     6.11    21.27     4.78    45.73    86.67    56.43P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              28   49  +14       4.25    70.38     4.30    77.15     6.03    19.06     2.63    32.09    79.41    44.87P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               27   48   +5       7.02    81.64    -0.91    77.57     6.18    10.27     2.87    32.06    78.29    42.95P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             28   47  +11       1.24    56.09     0.35    76.83     5.89    18.38     2.11    29.61    78.36    45.12P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            28   47  +10       5.05    74.10     4.56    73.71     5.95    12.94     0.67    14.52    58.77    25.30P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       29   46   +7       7.71    83.51     9.28    68.21     5.70     5.55     0.07     2.31    23.07     6.18P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         28   45  +11       6.34    78.77    10.60    69.92     5.98    11.52     0.10     5.34    34.58    11.38P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon              27   44   +3       0.89    54.34    -6.09    74.08     6.31     9.07     0.89    16.56    59.13    28.38P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester           29   42   +3      -1.54    42.64    -2.52    66.42     5.81     4.66     0.01     1.26    15.70     4.86P    0.00R    0.00  
Crawley_Town         29   39   -4       3.75    69.07     2.43    59.38     5.55    -8.32     0.00     0.04     1.26     0.25P    0.26R    0.03  
Carlisle             28   38   +1      -1.14    44.78     0.09    63.82     6.02     2.48     0.00     0.52     8.57     2.33P    0.05R    0.01  
Cambridge_Utd        28   38   -9       0.88    55.02    -7.40    60.96     5.84   -11.30     0.00     0.10     2.62     0.64P    0.16R    0.02  
Stevenage            28   35   -3      -3.41    33.57    -2.68    58.88     5.93    -4.33     0.00     0.04     1.58     0.38P    0.58R    0.14  
Grimsby              29   35  -11       0.04    50.83    -3.99    55.16     5.59   -15.53     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P    2.46R    0.59  
Cheltenham           29   34   -5      -1.37    43.81     1.79    55.37     5.64    -8.14     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.07P    2.06R    0.46  
Port_Vale            29   32   -7      -8.54    14.55    -8.24    56.90     5.84    -4.61     0.00     0.01     0.57     0.18P    1.30R    0.27  
Morecambe            29   30  -11      -3.15    34.98    -0.83    49.93     5.53   -16.11     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   13.42R    4.58  
Crewe                28   29  -14      -4.69    27.77    -6.61    49.69     5.76   -20.49     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   16.14R    5.79  
Yeovil               28   28  -12      -4.55    28.36    -2.74    47.90     5.73   -19.76     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   23.87R    9.59  
Chesterfield         29   27  -22      -7.01    19.11   -12.64    48.18     5.82   -25.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.20R    9.88  
Forest_Green         28   26  -19      -2.09    40.23    -2.11    43.84     5.69   -30.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.55R   30.19  
Barnet               28   21  -15     -11.44     6.08    -5.97    42.21     5.82   -20.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.95R   38.45  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 23 January 2018, AFC_Fylde 3 0 Maidstone_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Macclesfield       30   55   +6      10.19    89.42     0.44    78.78     5.47     8.89    21.36    74.07    32.35P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot          30   52  +16       2.37    61.02     3.44    77.06     5.55    20.62    15.94    65.70    29.26P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      30   52   +9      10.15    89.26     7.79    76.07     5.60    12.16    10.62    57.02    19.15P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            29   51  +11       8.83    86.90     7.03    75.44     5.67    12.96     9.35    52.54    18.31P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere           30   50  +18      -4.79    27.02    -2.08    78.08     5.45    26.90    21.60    74.27    40.79P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          30   48  +16       3.30    64.91    10.63    72.33     5.80    19.54     4.17    35.16    10.86P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     30   48  +16      -2.09    39.35     2.58    75.14     5.56    23.72     9.68    54.69    22.83P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            30   47  +13       3.15    64.90     8.99    70.80     5.61    15.77     2.15    24.77     6.72P    0.00R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       30   47  +10       3.98    69.05     6.88    70.21     5.47    12.13     1.40    19.89     5.40P    0.01R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          30   45  +10      -4.89    27.57    -3.12    72.23     5.50    18.14     3.50    33.50    12.32P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   30   43   +8       1.79    58.46     7.68    64.69     5.62     7.77     0.13     4.35     1.01P    0.09R    0.00  
Eastleigh          30   40   +0      -1.59    42.78    -0.58    61.03     5.53    -1.47     0.02     0.82     0.15P    0.74R    0.00  
Maidenhead         30   38   -4       2.14    61.15     4.09    57.11     5.55    -8.37     0.00     0.16     0.03P    3.84R    0.01  
Maidstone_United   30   38   -9       3.38    67.15     1.26    56.85     5.41   -13.79     0.00     0.12     0.03P    4.53R    0.02  
Gateshead          28   36   +6      -6.72    19.83    -0.44    62.54     5.93     8.85     0.09     2.58     0.69P    0.47R    0.00  
Woking             30   36   -9      -1.03    45.57    -2.14    56.12     5.58   -12.10     0.00     0.08     0.01P    6.03R    0.04  
Halifax            29   34   -7       1.20    57.02     2.98    53.52     5.72   -12.36     0.00     0.03     0.01P   13.64R    0.20  
Hartlepool         30   34   -9      -8.31    16.19   -10.90    57.33     5.59    -6.90     0.00     0.09     0.03P    3.74R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient      29   32   -7     -10.45    10.39   -11.02    56.60     5.87    -5.05     0.00     0.10     0.03P    5.50R    0.05  
Barrow             29   31   -4      -9.03    12.91    -4.40    54.49     5.80    -3.70     0.00     0.05     0.01P    9.50R    0.11  
Solihull_Moors     30   27  -16      -5.66    24.04    -3.25    43.93     5.24   -23.75     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.27R    7.93  
Chester            30   27  -21      -5.98    22.69    -8.39    43.54     5.28   -29.24     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.20R    9.95  
Guiseley           28   22  -26      -3.94    30.00    -6.78    39.57     5.59   -36.88     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.59R   32.82  
Torquay            30   20  -27     -10.12     8.65   -10.70    37.34     5.37   -33.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.85R   48.86