Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 19 December 2017 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 18 December 2017, Everton 3 1 Swansea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         18   52  +44      11.08    99.37    14.91    97.58     5.39    77.30    97.87    99.80    99.98    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          18   41  +27       5.85    85.04    11.23    79.98     5.92    44.33     1.44    51.79    78.09    91.11    99.77     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          18   38  +18       2.72    67.47     1.51    77.60     5.85    37.26     0.57    30.58    63.65    83.05    99.37     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        18   34  +18       0.51    52.52     4.00    71.95     6.05    35.30     0.08     8.67    25.61    51.06    95.51     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          18   33  +11       0.44    52.52    -1.28    70.05     6.15    25.92     0.02     4.30    15.44    35.42    91.84     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          18   32   +4       9.12    94.80     6.79    56.18     5.97    -0.12     0.00     0.01     0.13     0.61     9.57     0.01R    0.00  
Tottenham        18   31  +13      -4.07    23.35    -3.31    70.24     5.98    31.50     0.02     4.85    17.04    38.17    92.82     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        18   26   +1       1.67    61.52     2.27    53.84     6.16     0.57     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.28     5.59     0.05R    0.00  
Everton          18   25   -6      -0.42    47.69    -6.23    53.58     6.36    -4.83     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.31     5.23     0.12R    0.00  
Watford          18   22   -6       2.69    68.73     3.55    43.83     5.98   -17.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15     5.27R    0.74  
Huddersfield     18   21  -14       7.20    91.11     4.75    37.47     5.57   -33.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    29.93R    7.84  
Southampton      18   18   -7      -5.95    15.23    -5.39    42.76     6.06   -10.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     6.61R    1.16  
Brighton         18   18   -9      -1.64    39.83    -1.33    38.91     5.90   -19.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    19.99R    4.71  
Crystal_Palace   18   17  -13      -2.82    31.31    -4.37    37.72     5.90   -23.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    27.01R    7.29  
West_Ham         18   17  -15      -2.48    33.98    -5.76    39.96     6.05   -23.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    17.02R    3.98  
Bournemouth      18   16   -9      -3.90    25.02    -0.70    38.77     6.03   -17.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.78R    5.12  
Stoke            18   16  -20      -1.42    41.25    -7.27    36.68     5.82   -32.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.88R   10.81  
Newcastle        18   15  -11      -5.62    16.68    -4.48    36.03     5.96   -22.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.26R   12.03  
West_Brom        18   14  -11      -5.95    14.22    -3.93    36.02     5.91   -19.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.55R   11.36  
Swansea          18   12  -15      -6.47    11.48    -4.95    31.59     5.73   -27.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.51R   34.96  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 December 2017, Birmingham 1 2 QPR; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Wolverhampton   22   51  +25      14.06    98.28    14.99    91.41     7.09    36.32    61.32    83.29    99.26    87.40P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         22   47  +17      12.19    96.39    10.16    85.63     7.10    25.57    21.72    54.08    95.23    64.64P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    22   43  +13      10.61    93.69     9.80    79.00     7.29    17.64     5.44    18.62    76.84    30.96P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           22   41  +14       4.78    75.92     5.04    80.87     7.09    24.30     8.34    27.26    85.09    44.82P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     22   37   +9       4.36    74.06     5.12    72.33     7.07    12.76     0.71     3.79    43.19    13.45P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       22   37   +7       5.34    77.50     4.80    71.05     7.32     8.48     0.64     3.03    36.28    10.05P    0.02R    0.00  
Leeds_United    22   36   +8       2.63    65.02     3.25    72.46     7.13    13.42     0.81     4.21    44.59    14.29P    0.01R    0.00  
Ipswich         22   35   +5       3.86    71.43     3.52    68.13     7.23     5.23     0.28     1.23    22.23     5.62P    0.02R    0.00  
Preston         22   35   +4       3.90    71.88     2.50    69.14     7.08     6.03     0.24     1.46    25.61     6.80P    0.01R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   22   32   +6      -2.82    34.25    -0.81    69.86     7.19    13.28     0.38     2.05    31.39    11.29P    0.02R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   22   30   -5       2.40    64.55    -0.63    60.14     7.13    -9.66     0.01     0.07     3.40     0.70P    1.31R    0.05  
Fulham          22   29   -1      -2.95    33.65    -3.49    64.47     7.21     2.79     0.06     0.37    10.89     3.12P    0.28R    0.00  
Brentford       22   28   +3      -4.62    25.39    -0.69    63.33     7.35     6.44     0.03     0.28     9.49     2.61P    0.43R    0.01  
Reading         22   27   +0      -2.83    34.53     0.47    60.52     7.12     0.82     0.01     0.06     4.01     0.99P    1.13R    0.03  
Sheff_Wed       22   27   -1      -5.56    20.88    -4.71    61.71     7.08     1.84     0.01     0.11     5.26     1.45P    0.67R    0.01  
Norwich         22   27   -7      -4.32    26.83    -8.69    61.02     7.22    -5.48     0.01     0.08     4.23     1.13P    0.97R    0.04  
Millwall        22   26   +2      -1.08    44.65     6.31    55.02     7.17    -3.31     0.00     0.01     0.92     0.19P    5.41R    0.34  
QPR             22   25   -8      -1.83    40.13    -3.04    53.86     6.94   -14.21     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.08P    7.73R    0.52  
Hull            22   22   -3      -9.43     9.16    -4.71    56.01     7.56    -1.75     0.00     0.02     1.50     0.37P    5.03R    0.42  
Barnsley        22   21  -10      -4.91    23.66    -3.27    49.15     6.97   -17.52     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   21.73R    2.85  
Sunderland      22   18  -11     -10.48     6.29    -8.34    49.67     7.29   -13.04     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.04P   20.43R    2.95  
Burton_Albion   22   17  -26      -2.80    33.56   -10.62    38.75     6.38   -42.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.93R   36.89  
Bolton          22   16  -20      -5.94    18.40    -7.21    39.61     6.77   -34.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.18R   29.96  
Birmingham      22   16  -21      -6.07    16.63    -9.74    40.25     6.58   -33.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.70R   25.93  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 17 December 2017, Fleetwood_Town 2 3 Peterborough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wigan            21   48  +30       6.04    82.53    10.39    97.45     7.11    52.38    69.10    92.76    99.95    95.72P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury       21   44  +14      14.63    98.65    12.84    79.27     7.26    15.57     1.51     9.40    81.89    22.52P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn        21   43  +20       3.31    68.58     3.41    91.40     7.32    41.44    25.92    74.28    99.37    83.85P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         22   42   +9       6.51    82.89     1.14    81.03     7.13    18.02     2.19    13.23    88.04    34.43P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       22   39  +11       2.78    65.76     2.09    78.63     7.10    20.91     1.08     7.89    81.46    29.78P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         21   35   +3       4.23    73.67     0.04    71.44     7.44     6.22     0.13     1.31    43.07    10.51P    0.10R    0.00  
Portsmouth       22   35   +3       4.86    76.07     2.97    67.62     7.25     2.81     0.03     0.37    24.03     4.98P    0.36R    0.01  
Peterborough     22   32   +2       0.66    54.03     0.55    66.83     7.23     4.59     0.01     0.27    21.41     4.51P    0.70R    0.05  
Oxford_Utd       22   31   +8      -2.88    34.15     2.52    66.74     7.17    12.26     0.02     0.28    22.06     5.48P    0.49R    0.02  
Rotherham        22   30   +4      -1.10    44.24     2.93    64.11     7.43     5.50     0.00     0.13    13.75     3.09P    1.80R    0.09  
Walsall          21   28   -1      -1.09    44.01    -1.39    61.29     7.32    -2.50     0.00     0.04     6.70     1.42P    4.10R    0.24  
Southend         22   28   -9      -0.98    44.97    -7.00    59.05     7.19   -11.93     0.00     0.01     3.28     0.63P    8.01R    0.65  
Blackpool        22   27   -3       0.13    51.76     1.81    56.26     7.13    -8.41     0.00     0.01     1.65     0.33P   14.11R    1.38  
Oldham           22   27   -4       1.09    57.46     2.18    56.08     6.95    -9.79     0.00     0.00     1.22     0.18P   14.28R    1.38  
Fleetwood_Town   22   27   -4      -4.07    27.68    -5.25    60.94     7.21    -2.41     0.00     0.02     5.79     1.34P    4.35R    0.28  
Bristol_Rovers   22   27   -7      -0.34    48.90    -1.63    56.85     7.20   -12.41     0.00     0.01     1.83     0.29P   13.34R    1.41  
MK_Dons          22   26   -7      -3.32    31.79    -5.69    57.89     7.16    -8.59     0.00     0.01     2.41     0.51P   10.04R    0.82  
Doncaster        22   24   -5      -2.81    34.92     0.10    53.30     7.18   -10.27     0.00     0.00     0.61     0.13P   25.50R    3.73  
Gillingham       22   23   -5      -4.08    27.86    -0.35    52.58     7.05   -10.07     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.07P   28.04R    4.27  
Northampton      22   22  -20      -0.57    47.96    -7.87    45.70     6.69   -34.98     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    70.01R   24.97  
Rochdale         21   21   -5      -7.85    11.95    -5.11    54.34     7.31    -6.80     0.00     0.00     0.96     0.22P   20.65R    2.83  
Plymouth         22   21  -13      -2.45    36.70    -3.28    46.82     6.85   -22.88     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   61.98R   18.81  
AFC_Wimbledon    21   20  -11      -3.42    30.16    -3.67    47.64     6.89   -19.99     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   56.65R   15.68  
Bury             21   17  -10      -6.38    16.13    -1.73    45.72     7.13   -18.67     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   65.48R   23.39  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 December 2017, Barnet 2 1 Morecambe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Luton                22   45  +32       2.24    62.34    12.49    91.54     6.86    53.37    79.14    96.20    99.79    97.44P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         22   43  +15      11.30    95.12    12.78    77.47     7.20    17.30     5.38    39.23    79.82    47.26P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               22   39   +5       5.34    78.01    -0.22    76.35     7.20    11.69     3.98    32.41    74.45    42.79P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              22   37  +10       2.50    64.25     3.43    74.01     7.14    16.05     2.08    23.32    65.40    34.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   21   37   +8       4.85    76.07     2.96    75.72     7.36    14.64     3.48    30.79    72.08    41.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         22   36   +9       6.42    82.28     9.68    68.55     7.22     8.75     0.43     7.23    35.52    12.84P    0.04R    0.01  
Coventry             22   35   +8      -1.09    43.74    -0.56    73.99     7.18    16.77     2.11    23.11    65.59    36.93P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester           22   35   +6       0.93    55.52     0.09    72.02     7.22    12.12     1.20    15.52    54.26    25.85P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County       22   34   +6       5.74    80.54     8.93    65.60     7.10     4.12     0.11     3.21    21.28     6.59P    0.11R    0.01  
Mansfield            22   33   +5       1.22    57.36     2.34    68.07     7.04     8.23     0.23     6.00    32.57    12.37P    0.05R    0.01  
Grimsby              22   33   -1       3.98    72.55     0.50    63.73     7.00    -4.24     0.06     1.61    13.48     3.81P    0.27R    0.05  
Swindon              21   32   +4      -2.51    35.65    -4.50    72.60     7.60    13.73     1.72    19.08    57.47    30.69P    0.01R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        22   29   -9       0.21    51.90    -7.36    60.17     6.97   -11.11     0.01     0.46     5.64     1.53P    1.29R    0.36  
Carlisle             22   28   +0      -2.57    35.86    -0.31    62.17     7.26     1.70     0.05     1.14    11.19     3.57P    0.80R    0.21  
Cheltenham           22   27   -2      -0.14    50.02     2.52    57.08     7.00    -6.32     0.00     0.15     2.60     0.65P    3.34R    0.99  
Stevenage            22   27   -6      -1.91    39.43    -3.75    58.80     7.15    -7.75     0.00     0.30     4.34     1.20P    2.26R    0.72  
Crawley_Town         22   24   -7      -1.38    42.61    -0.25    51.34     6.84   -15.06     0.00     0.01     0.34     0.05P   14.63R    5.55  
Port_Vale            22   24   -9      -6.56    17.23    -9.60    56.96     7.29    -8.81     0.00     0.19     2.98     0.93P    4.02R    1.28  
Crewe                22   23  -11      -4.15    27.33    -6.32    51.21     6.96   -18.48     0.00     0.01     0.36     0.09P   16.22R    6.26  
Morecambe            22   22   -9      -2.98    33.47    -1.34    49.40     6.83   -17.22     0.00     0.01     0.13     0.04P   22.24R    9.29  
Yeovil               22   21  -13      -3.65    29.84    -4.42    47.64     6.79   -22.75     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   32.09R   14.91  
Barnet               22   20   -8      -6.97    14.80    -2.99    49.86     7.02   -12.66     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.07P   20.16R    8.49  
Chesterfield         22   20  -14      -8.06    12.17   -10.41    50.62     7.33   -17.74     0.00     0.02     0.42     0.12P   19.30R    8.33  
Forest_Green         22   20  -19      -0.98    45.53    -3.71    42.73     6.79   -36.31     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   63.16R   43.52  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 12 December 2017, Torquay 1 1 Gateshead; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Macclesfield       24   44   +7       7.87    86.46     2.09    77.99     6.66    12.80    16.17    68.96    27.86P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      24   42   +5       8.96    89.30     4.77    71.94     6.67     4.95     3.59    33.50     8.58P    0.02R    0.00  
Wrexham            24   42   +5       8.73    89.51     3.79    72.35     6.59     5.89     3.48    35.48     9.46P    0.01R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     24   41  +16       0.44    52.04     4.46    78.82     6.73    27.37    22.40    75.53    38.12P    0.00R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          23   40  +13      -0.03    49.51     0.16    80.43     6.91    26.66    30.78    81.27    46.02P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot          24   40  +12       0.94    55.17     2.80    75.14     6.74    19.36     9.21    54.99    21.29P    0.01R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       23   38  +12       4.04    72.23     8.10    71.49     6.77    15.22     3.56    33.67    10.04P    0.03R    0.00  
Bromley            24   37   +8       3.30    67.75     6.75    68.37     6.82     9.76     1.27    19.15     4.69P    0.14R    0.00  
Tranmere           23   34  +10      -6.73    16.06    -3.17    74.12     6.73    22.42     7.31    50.24    22.51P    0.01R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   23   34   +9       1.94    60.84     8.07    64.82     7.20     8.15     0.58    10.16     2.38P    0.78R    0.01  
Maidstone_United   22   34   -2       7.17    85.80     2.78    62.36     6.95    -8.68     0.18     4.50     0.80P    1.96R    0.02  
Woking             22   33   -1       3.84    71.31     0.65    64.16     7.15    -3.90     0.41     7.72     1.57P    1.23R    0.01  
Maidenhead         24   31   -2       2.36    63.45     4.43    57.98     6.86    -7.02     0.03     1.15     0.23P    7.42R    0.14  
Hartlepool         24   31   -4      -4.75    26.04    -8.39    64.39     6.83     0.90     0.25     6.96     1.98P    1.03R    0.01  
Gateshead          23   30   +6      -5.26    22.71     0.42    65.01     6.88    11.37     0.46     9.64     2.80P    0.60R    0.00  
Halifax            24   29   -7       2.27    63.25     1.92    53.48     6.77   -15.06     0.00     0.21     0.03P   21.18R    0.75  
AFC_Fylde          21   28   +4       1.09    56.87     6.90    61.89     7.72     3.37     0.32     5.94     1.41P    3.40R    0.06  
Eastleigh          24   26   -5      -5.39    22.88    -2.85    55.25     6.68    -6.32     0.00     0.32     0.08P   13.16R    0.40  
Barrow             24   25   -4      -8.05    13.02    -4.29    55.32     6.76    -3.54     0.00     0.33     0.08P   12.42R    0.39  
Leyton_Orient      24   24  -10     -10.65     7.54   -12.63    54.25     6.93   -10.07     0.01     0.27     0.08P   17.72R    0.69  
Chester            23   21  -14      -5.39    21.70    -6.06    47.04     6.71   -22.31     0.00     0.02     0.01P   58.48R    6.29  
Torquay            25   19  -16      -8.60    10.67    -6.51    43.41     6.32   -22.24     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.43R   13.66  
Guiseley           22   17  -21      -3.76    28.26    -6.90    40.25     6.55   -35.52     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.09R   32.60  
Solihull_Moors     24   16  -21      -8.08    11.43    -7.29    38.17     6.34   -33.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.87R   44.96