Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 5 December 2017 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 3 December 2017, Bournemouth 1 1 Southampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         15   43  +36       8.69    98.25    11.55    92.83     6.18    68.60    86.52    96.64    99.12    99.79   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          15   35  +26       5.29    85.34    11.98    80.14     6.56    46.57     7.70    46.46    73.02    88.19    99.68     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          15   32  +16       2.89    70.24     2.49    78.81     6.43    40.78     4.32    35.23    64.85    83.57    99.46     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        15   29  +14       2.07    64.83     3.64    72.97     6.73    34.63     0.77    10.51    28.41    53.14    96.31     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          15   28  +10       1.05    57.63    -0.27    71.69     6.76    29.47     0.46     7.39    21.47    43.68    94.77     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        15   25  +10      -4.25    20.27    -3.36    69.45     6.55    30.14     0.23     3.75    13.03    30.89    91.47     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          15   25   +2       6.90    91.39     6.03    53.48     6.61    -2.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.35     6.43     0.10R    0.01  
Watford          15   22   -1       5.85    86.63     6.76    49.84     6.69    -8.94     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.09     2.62     0.74R    0.06  
Leicester        15   20   +0       0.40    53.77     2.06    52.04     6.77    -0.16     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.19     5.00     0.38R    0.04  
Everton          15   18   -9      -2.60    31.39    -8.25    49.84     6.95    -9.49     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.10     2.86     1.01R    0.08  
Southampton      15   17   -3      -4.39    20.41    -3.77    45.49     6.63    -7.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.73     2.98R    0.30  
Brighton         15   17   -5      -0.05    50.78     0.51    42.25     6.51   -14.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21     8.27R    1.26  
Stoke            15   16  -12       0.32    53.78    -3.59    41.53     6.49   -22.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16    11.22R    1.93  
Bournemouth      15   15   -4      -2.78    30.39     0.95    41.29     6.60   -13.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14    11.13R    1.96  
Newcastle        15   15   -8      -2.73    31.23    -3.36    39.49     6.66   -20.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13    17.57R    3.45  
Huddersfield     15   15  -17       4.83    85.85     1.03    32.05     5.85   -42.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.31R   25.72  
West_Brom        15   13   -9      -4.37    19.79    -4.09    37.56     6.43   -19.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    25.22R    5.94  
Crystal_Palace   15   10  -17      -5.13    14.61    -7.43    33.15     6.46   -30.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.89R   19.64  
West_Ham         15   10  -19      -5.55    13.24    -9.73    34.06     6.56   -33.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.75R   16.67  
Swansea          15    9  -10      -7.26     6.75    -3.15    32.12     6.32   -23.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.42R   22.93  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 4 December 2017, Birmingham 0 1 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Wolverhampton   20   47  +24      13.35    98.13    14.75    90.65     7.64    36.22    61.02    82.58    98.48    86.59P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         20   43  +16      11.31    96.07     9.73    84.84     7.55    25.25    23.42    55.41    93.10    64.80P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    20   37  +11       8.02    89.08     8.84    75.42     7.69    15.21     3.33    12.37    59.99    22.61P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       20   37   +9       7.41    86.45     5.78    74.59     7.87    11.66     2.90    10.85    54.72    20.47P    0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   36  +11       5.63    80.96     6.49    74.91     7.44    15.94     2.63    10.36    58.10    22.51P    0.00R    0.00  
Derby           20   35   +9       3.15    68.75     2.45    76.70     7.55    17.99     4.37    15.77    67.00    30.10P    0.00R    0.00  
Ipswich         20   32   +5       3.52    70.71     3.48    67.68     7.57     4.92     0.38     1.78    22.17     6.13P    0.11R    0.00  
Leeds_United    20   30   +5       0.38    52.61     1.74    68.97     7.66    10.00     0.46     2.58    28.33     9.25P    0.08R    0.00  
Middlesbrough   20   29   +5      -2.61    34.76    -1.13    70.13     7.66    13.07     0.72     3.49    34.35    13.07P    0.04R    0.00  
Preston         20   29   +2       1.60    60.27     1.87    65.79     7.60     3.86     0.14     1.02    15.77     4.43P    0.22R    0.01  
Brentford       20   27   +4      -2.97    32.87     0.11    66.12     7.77     8.99     0.26     1.33    18.26     5.67P    0.26R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed       20   27   +2      -3.62    29.01    -2.84    65.28     7.54     6.01     0.13     0.80    14.56     4.64P    0.32R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   20   27   -5       2.08    63.15    -0.78    60.10     7.62    -9.39     0.02     0.15     4.30     0.94P    2.10R    0.14  
Reading         20   26   +2      -1.71    40.29     1.59    62.50     7.58     3.13     0.04     0.38     8.42     2.29P    0.88R    0.05  
Fulham          20   26   -1      -3.04    32.54    -3.23    65.32     7.71     4.47     0.16     0.95    15.13     4.61P    0.45R    0.01  
Norwich         20   24   -8      -4.22    26.27    -9.13    59.85     7.64    -7.90     0.01     0.12     3.97     1.05P    2.32R    0.13  
Millwall        20   22   +1      -2.50    35.66     5.28    52.58     7.54    -5.94     0.00     0.01     0.60     0.13P   12.68R    1.36  
QPR             20   22   -7      -2.39    36.22    -2.54    53.89     7.36   -12.68     0.00     0.01     0.67     0.14P    9.77R    0.94  
Barnsley        20   20   -7      -4.34    25.27    -1.98    50.60     7.50   -15.33     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.06P   19.64R    2.58  
Hull            20   19   -3      -9.77     6.96    -4.76    55.36     7.97    -2.41     0.00     0.03     1.69     0.49P    7.59R    0.90  
Bolton          20   16  -18      -4.04    26.46    -6.58    43.06     7.30   -31.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   60.00R   18.31  
Birmingham      20   16  -19      -4.16    24.79    -8.94    42.56     6.95   -31.78     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   63.46R   18.55  
Sunderland      20   14  -12     -11.75     3.36    -9.20    47.41     7.82   -15.90     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   34.23R    7.08  
Burton_Albion   20   14  -26      -3.50    28.17   -11.01    37.54     6.72   -44.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.84R   49.93  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 December 2017, Bristol_Rovers 2 1 Rotherham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wigan            19   42  +24       5.29    80.47     8.25    93.72     7.60    45.39    60.86    84.70    99.53    90.28P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury       19   40  +13      13.62    98.41    12.26    78.09     7.74    14.74     2.82    11.52    75.07    22.77P    0.01R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       20   38  +12       4.47    75.22     3.06    81.63     7.49    23.75     6.24    22.79    88.48    42.50P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn        19   37  +17       1.54    58.84     2.75    88.26     7.79    38.39    26.20    61.91    97.43    74.94P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         20   36   +7       4.18    74.17     0.46    77.79     7.53    15.99     2.25    10.53    75.04    28.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Charlton         19   35   +6       5.84    82.05     1.37    74.99     7.80    10.34     1.39     6.37    60.41    18.06P    0.04R    0.00  
Peterborough     20   29   +2       0.16    51.33     0.08    65.71     7.69     3.21     0.06     0.52    17.68     4.08P    1.41R    0.06  
Portsmouth       20   29   +1       2.23    63.64     1.97    63.73     7.71    -0.17     0.04     0.21    12.39     2.65P    2.57R    0.12  
Southend         20   28   -5       0.49    53.36    -5.08    62.86     7.60    -6.19     0.02     0.19     9.34     2.00P    3.39R    0.20  
Oxford_Utd       20   27   +7      -3.59    29.54     2.36    65.91     7.64    11.84     0.05     0.48    19.30     5.00P    1.20R    0.05  
Fleetwood_Town   20   27   -1      -2.34    36.19    -3.80    64.04     7.57     1.06     0.03     0.24    12.40     2.76P    2.26R    0.09  
Blackpool        20   27   -1       2.11    63.32     2.67    59.13     7.67    -6.18     0.00     0.04     4.32     0.72P    8.37R    0.75  
Rotherham        20   26   +3      -1.68    40.59     2.90    63.29     7.99     5.20     0.03     0.32    12.30     2.89P    3.44R    0.25  
Walsall          19   25   -1      -1.29    42.23    -1.27    61.04     7.72    -2.45     0.00     0.11     6.86     1.42P    5.47R    0.37  
Bristol_Rovers   20   24   -7      -0.49    47.81    -1.70    56.35     7.60   -12.70     0.00     0.01     1.95     0.33P   16.46R    1.89  
MK_Dons          20   24   -7      -2.82    33.78    -6.03    58.02     7.50    -9.45     0.00     0.02     2.83     0.58P   11.04R    0.99  
Doncaster        20   23   -4      -1.50    41.77     0.38    55.27     7.66    -9.02     0.00     0.01     1.52     0.31P   19.57R    2.41  
Oldham           20   23   -8       0.98    57.14    -0.26    53.59     7.26   -15.38     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.09P   26.30R    3.66  
Rochdale         19   20   -4      -6.55    15.20    -4.77    55.81     7.76    -6.05     0.00     0.02     1.93     0.49P   17.18R    2.05  
AFC_Wimbledon    20   20   -7      -3.37    29.92    -1.62    49.39     7.03   -15.21     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P   46.08R    9.50  
Gillingham       20   20   -7      -3.63    28.83    -1.44    51.76     7.41   -12.66     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.08P   33.84R    5.98  
Northampton      20   19  -17      -1.87    39.43    -6.71    45.66     7.14   -31.11     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   69.06R   24.65  
Bury             20   17   -9      -5.57    19.02    -1.53    46.90     7.31   -17.92     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   59.77R   17.51  
Plymouth         20   17  -14      -3.63    28.50    -4.30    44.55     7.29   -25.40     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   72.54R   29.47  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 November 2017, Barnet 0 2 Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Luton                20   41  +30       2.30    63.31    12.50    92.23     7.24    54.71    76.45    95.00    99.68    96.69P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         20   41  +15      11.88    96.42    12.43    77.68     7.68    16.32     5.59    36.51    78.37    44.35P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   20   37  +10       5.49    79.76     3.95    77.96     7.49    18.03     5.18    38.21    80.41    48.49P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               20   36   +6       4.98    77.68     0.66    76.73     7.59    13.69     3.90    31.48    74.99    42.26P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              20   33   +9       1.69    60.11     3.08    73.17     7.69    15.73     1.69    18.49    59.81    29.06P    0.01R    0.00  
Coventry             20   32   +9      -1.26    42.12     0.56    75.53     7.56    20.27     2.98    28.00    71.41    42.45P    0.00R    0.00  
Mansfield            20   32   +7       2.81    66.84     4.17    71.33     7.51    12.43     0.85    12.20    49.57    21.26P    0.02R    0.00  
Swindon              20   32   +5      -1.17    42.63    -3.53    74.84     7.78    15.98     2.69    24.93    66.88    37.43P    0.01R    0.01  
Newport_County       20   30   +5       4.57    76.49     7.97    64.00     7.48     2.79     0.09     1.96    16.29     4.62P    0.29R    0.07  
Lincoln_City         20   30   +5       4.43    75.44     7.59    63.73     7.57     2.48     0.07     1.96    15.71     4.64P    0.43R    0.11  
Colchester           20   29   +3      -1.44    41.56    -1.58    67.46     7.64     7.12     0.27     5.32    30.48    11.88P    0.10R    0.02  
Grimsby              20   29   -2       3.06    68.42     0.11    62.49     7.40    -5.33     0.07     1.13    10.92     3.01P    0.65R    0.16  
Cambridge_Utd        20   29   -6       2.11    63.24    -5.54    64.02     7.44    -6.58     0.08     1.69    15.03     4.62P    0.39R    0.12  
Carlisle             20   27   +1      -0.94    44.66     0.50    64.28     7.64     3.31     0.07     2.24    17.77     5.96P    0.46R    0.12  
Stevenage            20   26   -5      -0.70    46.30    -3.58    60.19     7.60    -7.45     0.03     0.61     7.12     1.92P    1.66R    0.49  
Cheltenham           20   24   -2      -0.72    46.59     2.14    56.49     7.37    -6.81     0.00     0.16     2.74     0.67P    4.29R    1.48  
Crawley_Town         20   21   -6      -2.19    37.16    -0.02    50.87     7.24   -14.28     0.00     0.02     0.37     0.08P   16.23R    7.00  
Yeovil               20   20  -11      -2.72    34.00    -3.52    49.19     7.32   -21.13     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P   23.48R   11.24  
Crewe                20   20  -13      -3.86    27.72    -7.40    50.31     7.32   -21.56     0.00     0.01     0.34     0.08P   19.25R    8.68  
Forest_Green         20   20  -16       0.15    52.37    -3.22    44.68     7.26   -34.95     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   49.11R   30.71  
Morecambe            20   19  -10      -3.31    30.79    -2.30    47.76     7.16   -20.27     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P   29.46R   14.63  
Port_Vale            20   18  -12      -8.80     8.72   -11.14    52.45     7.68   -13.73     0.00     0.03     0.92     0.24P   12.53R    5.36  
Barnet               20   17   -8      -7.13    12.64    -3.00    49.73     7.40   -12.47     0.00     0.01     0.30     0.07P   20.43R    9.55  
Chesterfield         20   17  -14      -8.58     9.30   -10.82    50.12     7.83   -18.28     0.00     0.03     0.52     0.16P   21.22R   10.23  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 December 2017, Bromley 2 2 Dover_Athletic; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Sutton_United      23   42   +8       9.37    90.89     6.25    73.91     6.93     8.85     7.54    44.79    14.17P    0.02R    0.00  
Wrexham            23   42   +8       9.23    90.95     5.62    74.09     6.75     9.51     6.97    46.10    14.68P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield       23   41   +4       7.35    85.18     0.59    75.86     6.87     9.11    11.21    55.90    20.93P    0.00R    0.00  
Aldershot          23   40  +13       2.20    62.25     3.63    77.93     6.93    22.45    19.86    69.93    33.66P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     23   38  +12       0.07    50.20     2.39    76.59     7.00    22.44    15.56    63.46    29.22P    0.00R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          22   37  +12      -1.18    42.70    -0.15    78.78     7.13    25.62    24.93    74.12    39.90P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            23   36   +8       3.60    69.64     6.52    68.77     7.03     9.92     1.85    21.42     5.72P    0.12R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       22   35  +11       2.91    66.87     7.79    69.87     6.99    14.27     2.73    26.38     8.11P    0.09R    0.00  
Woking             22   33   -1       3.82    71.29     0.57    64.14     7.15    -3.86     0.49     7.53     1.64P    1.21R    0.02  
Maidstone_United   21   33   -2       7.47    87.28     2.66    62.57     7.18    -9.00     0.32     5.19     1.01P    2.05R    0.02  
Tranmere           22   31   +7      -7.15    14.20    -4.45    72.66     6.97    19.61     5.81    41.82    18.33P    0.01R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   22   31   +5       2.23    62.78     6.75    62.32     7.45     2.97     0.35     6.01     1.45P    2.16R    0.03  
Hartlepool         23   31   +0      -4.91    24.99    -6.61    66.59     7.02     6.14     0.86    13.52     4.37P    0.38R    0.00  
Maidenhead         23   30   -2       2.78    65.85     4.60    58.69     7.17    -6.59     0.04     1.79     0.35P    6.42R    0.19  
Gateshead          22   29   +6      -4.94    23.46     0.38    65.70     7.10    11.86     0.82    12.07     3.87P    0.55R    0.00  
AFC_Fylde          20   28   +5       1.89    61.44     7.06    63.07     7.89     4.11     0.61     8.37     2.16P    2.36R    0.05  
Halifax            23   26   -8       0.84    55.87     1.27    50.60     6.88   -17.88     0.00     0.09     0.02P   34.26R    2.90  
Barrow             23   25   -3      -7.15    15.32    -3.98    56.71     7.01    -2.53     0.02     0.91     0.27P    9.02R    0.36  
Eastleigh          23   25   -5      -4.76    25.06    -2.70    55.48     6.91    -6.40     0.01     0.45     0.11P   12.50R    0.52  
Leyton_Orient      23   21  -13     -11.15     5.86   -13.99    51.93     7.21   -14.05     0.00     0.13     0.03P   27.00R    2.13  
Torquay            23   18  -13      -8.26    10.69    -5.57    44.62     6.76   -19.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.74R   13.09  
Chester            22   18  -15      -6.49    16.23    -6.27    45.44     6.94   -23.29     0.00     0.01     0.00P   63.65R   12.22  
Guiseley           21   17  -17      -3.71    28.10    -5.13    42.01     6.82   -30.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.76R   26.37  
Solihull_Moors     23   16  -20      -7.30    13.44    -7.25    39.36     6.58   -32.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.69R   42.09