Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 2 October 2017 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 October 2017, Arsenal 2 0 Brighton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          7   19  +20       3.83    89.37    10.47    85.47     7.87    60.60    56.49    78.94    90.40    96.43    99.83     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd           7   19  +19       4.22    90.66    11.25    78.07     8.20    43.81    17.20    42.59    64.86    82.30    98.08     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         7   14   +9      -0.63    41.42     1.11    76.73     8.07    41.37    13.36    35.47    58.71    78.36    97.47     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea           7   13   +6       0.55    55.34     1.72    75.38     8.16    37.88     9.39    28.51    51.08    73.41    96.22     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           7   13   +3       0.21    51.63    -1.91    68.55     8.52    23.18     2.32     8.91    20.33    37.98    83.56     0.00     0.00  
Burnley           7   12   +2       3.92    88.32     4.44    49.41     8.22    -4.97     0.00     0.03     0.15     0.62     7.44     3.25R    0.34  
Liverpool         7   12   +1       0.21    51.50    -2.30    65.89     8.73    19.00     1.22     5.34    13.38    26.98    74.64     0.02R    0.00  
Watford           7   12   -1       4.54    90.04     2.54    45.28     8.16   -17.35     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.15     2.99     9.23R    1.40  
Newcastle         7   10   +1       0.49    55.70     1.13    47.79     8.62    -6.66     0.01     0.04     0.17     0.61     6.25     5.56R    0.73  
West_Brom         7    9   -2      -0.24    48.02    -1.56    43.45     8.07   -14.06     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.11     1.92    12.57R    2.10  
Huddersfield      7    9   -2       3.10    83.29     3.58    32.27     7.39   -34.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    63.29R   24.59  
Southampton       7    8   -2      -2.78    22.20    -3.77    47.01     8.21    -7.15     0.00     0.02     0.11     0.39     4.83     5.70R    0.68  
Stoke             7    8   -4       1.02    63.98    -0.28    44.57     8.22   -13.95     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.16     2.56    10.74R    1.67  
Brighton          7    7   -4      -0.33    48.12    -0.54    40.78     8.31   -17.21     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.07     1.08    21.62R    4.66  
West_Ham          7    7   -6      -1.24    36.81    -3.73    43.01     8.40   -18.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.12     2.06    15.15R    2.87  
Everton           7    7   -8      -1.32    35.71    -5.72    52.80     8.70    -3.39     0.01     0.12     0.61     1.93    15.76     1.86R    0.20  
Leicester         7    5   -3      -3.33    17.30    -0.74    46.13     8.60    -6.25     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.35     4.39     7.86R    1.29  
Swansea           7    5   -5      -2.38    25.16    -1.54    38.19     8.05   -20.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.47    31.85R    7.55  
Bournemouth       7    4   -7      -3.44    15.76    -3.15    37.36     8.16   -23.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.37    36.36R   10.17  
Crystal_Palace    7    0  -17      -6.35     0.55   -11.00    29.35     7.91   -38.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    74.93R   41.74  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 October 2017, Sheff_Wed 3 0 Leeds_United; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Cardiff         11   24   +8       7.67    95.10     6.18    77.62     9.50    16.53    18.58    31.96    66.61    40.15P    0.04R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   11   23   +8       6.94    93.13     6.56    75.21     9.44    14.43    12.60    23.69    57.24    31.17P    0.10R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd       11   21   +5       5.84    88.88     4.81    71.12     9.93     8.08     6.76    13.84    40.26    19.61P    0.51R    0.03  
Bristol_City    11   20   +9       3.89    79.95     7.56    69.97     9.57    11.86     5.43    11.21    36.64    16.80P    0.44R    0.00  
Leeds_United    11   20   +7       2.74    72.25     3.73    72.66     9.50    14.10     8.39    16.71    47.17    24.49P    0.22R    0.01  
Preston         11   20   +7       3.91    80.53     5.36    71.60     9.37    12.56     6.64    13.79    42.31    20.65P    0.26R    0.01  
Aston_Villa     11   19   +7       2.32    69.28     4.56    69.75     9.26    11.46     4.56     9.83    35.09    15.97P    0.44R    0.02  
Ipswich         10   18   +4       3.17    76.11     2.38    65.73     9.68     1.50     2.32     5.16    21.58     8.71P    1.67R    0.11  
Norwich         11   18   -2       1.22    60.53    -4.62    70.56     9.72     4.79     5.77    11.96    37.70    18.32P    0.52R    0.01  
Fulham          11   17   +4       0.16    51.44     1.37    73.23     9.64    16.67     9.86    19.06    49.73    27.52P    0.23R    0.01  
Middlesbrough   11   16   +4      -1.92    33.87    -0.15    71.34     9.61    14.81     6.60    13.96    42.43    23.07P    0.39R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed       11   16   +3      -1.50    37.17    -0.57    69.78     9.26    11.76     4.45     9.89    35.31    17.02P    0.39R    0.02  
Nott'm_Forest   11   15   -4       1.73    65.22    -1.12    59.36     9.47   -10.30     0.42     1.14     7.26     2.28P    7.07R    0.66  
Millwall        11   13   +1      -0.29    48.70     3.76    52.83     9.50   -11.53     0.08     0.27     2.24     0.67P   20.78R    2.77  
Derby           10   13   +0      -1.65    35.94    -1.38    67.72     9.70     8.20     3.35     7.38    28.50    13.06P    1.10R    0.07  
QPR             11   13   -1      -1.22    40.18     0.30    57.67     9.38    -5.98     0.24     0.72     5.28     1.67P    8.96R    0.98  
Hull            11   12   +3      -5.72    11.28    -1.10    65.05    10.42    10.64     2.75     6.19    22.60    11.09P    2.58R    0.21  
Barnsley        10   11   -2      -1.61    36.47    -0.20    55.93     9.59    -9.36     0.17     0.54     4.11     1.29P   13.06R    1.62  
Brentford       11    9   -2      -6.38     8.36    -2.45    59.93     9.72     2.05     0.60     1.62     9.29     3.61P    6.19R    0.57  
Reading         10    9   -3      -4.05    18.29    -2.01    56.63     9.58    -5.66     0.24     0.63     4.68     1.55P   11.18R    1.22  
Burton_Albion   11    9  -17      -0.79    44.67    -8.95    42.02     8.54   -39.54     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   68.14R   21.33  
Birmingham      11    8  -12      -3.61    20.45    -6.78    45.16     8.91   -27.83     0.01     0.02     0.18     0.04P   52.97R   11.79  
Sunderland      11    7   -9      -6.84     6.65    -7.04    55.25     9.86    -8.64     0.18     0.44     3.73     1.27P   15.13R    2.20  
Bolton          11    2  -18      -7.83     1.75   -10.18    35.04     8.93   -40.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.64R   56.34  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 September 2017, AFC_Wimbledon 0 0 Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Shrewsbury       11   29  +10      14.10    99.90    10.09    76.60     9.43     9.45     6.08    15.47    57.08    22.14P    0.10R    0.00  
Wigan            11   25  +14       3.97    80.67     5.10    87.67     9.59    35.42    38.67    59.86    91.31    70.58P    0.00R    0.00  
Bradford         11   23   +6       4.90    85.39     1.50    79.59     9.34    18.78    10.84    24.94    70.23    37.33P    0.03R    0.00  
Peterborough     11   20   +5       3.16    74.35     2.37    71.76     9.70    10.45     2.68     7.59    38.92    14.40P    0.71R    0.04  
Charlton         11   20   +4       2.92    73.20     0.91    71.77     9.55     9.59     2.53     7.45    38.80    14.67P    0.62R    0.01  
Blackburn        10   19   +7       1.26    60.61     0.89    84.59     9.96    31.45    26.30    47.22    84.72    60.43P    0.02R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       11   19   +6       0.69    55.71     1.30    76.02     9.42    19.66     5.86    15.25    57.22    27.23P    0.14R    0.00  
Rotherham        11   18   +8       1.39    61.33     5.72    70.83    10.08    15.26     2.64     7.31    36.86    14.25P    1.21R    0.05  
Blackpool        11   18   +3       3.65    78.67     4.10    62.80     9.74    -1.65     0.35     1.26    11.78     3.29P    5.91R    0.43  
MK_Dons          11   17   +0       1.41    62.32    -0.84    66.88     9.50     2.97     0.79     2.71    21.08     6.74P    2.20R    0.11  
Fleetwood_Town   10   16   +0       0.29    52.36    -2.96    67.76     9.82     3.60     1.24     3.71    24.27     8.42P    2.07R    0.10  
Southend         11   16   -2       0.04    50.97    -3.19    64.81     9.68    -0.96     0.50     1.83    15.88     4.86P    3.85R    0.25  
Oxford_Utd       11   15   +4      -1.47    37.99     1.95    67.69     9.48    11.09     1.02     3.39    24.46     8.42P    1.66R    0.12  
Bristol_Rovers   11   15   -6       1.34    62.24    -3.28    56.77     9.58   -17.20     0.04     0.26     3.66     0.88P   17.72R    2.16  
Portsmouth       11   14   +1      -0.77    44.18     1.48    59.94     9.83    -2.11     0.18     0.67     7.71     2.14P   10.37R    1.06  
Walsall          11   13   -5      -1.11    41.46    -3.42    59.12     9.35    -7.87     0.09     0.35     5.43     1.35P   10.89R    1.07  
Rochdale         11   11   -3      -4.25    18.21    -3.33    59.89     9.47    -1.98     0.16     0.59     6.71     2.01P    9.50R    0.92  
Oldham           11   10   -9      -1.26    40.36    -3.38    48.85     8.91   -22.30     0.00     0.01     0.32     0.06P   45.36R    9.95  
Doncaster        11    9   -3      -4.33    17.89    -0.27    51.42     9.81   -11.83     0.02     0.07     1.45     0.37P   34.43R    6.78  
Bury             11    9   -5      -3.56    21.93    -0.74    50.22     9.40   -16.08     0.00     0.01     0.74     0.16P   39.35R    8.02  
AFC_Wimbledon    11    9   -6      -3.57    21.04    -2.59    48.90     8.89   -16.82     0.00     0.01     0.33     0.06P   44.49R    9.39  
Northampton      11    8   -8      -3.47    22.39    -2.19    48.86     9.36   -19.41     0.00     0.02     0.48     0.10P   45.61R   10.64  
Gillingham       11    7   -9      -4.76    14.10    -3.82    48.58     9.33   -19.40     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.08P   46.39R   11.20  
Plymouth         11    5  -12      -5.76     8.73    -5.41    40.78     9.16   -30.10     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   77.38R   37.68  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 September 2017, Chesterfield 0 2 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Notts_County         11   25  +10      10.29    98.61    10.66    75.17     9.74    13.04     6.49    23.26    59.30    29.79P    0.06R    0.01  
Exeter               11   25   +8       6.45    92.03     2.54    81.24     9.72    20.90    17.81    46.47    80.28    54.86P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   11   23   +8       4.95    85.31     3.51    76.92     9.47    17.13     8.89    29.49    66.95    38.90P    0.02R    0.00  
Coventry             11   22   +8       2.71    71.42     1.84    82.60     9.64    26.74    22.30    52.80    84.87    63.00P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                11   21  +11       1.37    60.96     4.05    81.87     9.42    30.86    20.30    50.87    84.13    61.48P    0.00R    0.00  
Stevenage            11   21   +7       3.76    79.11     3.86    72.58     9.54    12.59     4.10    16.52    49.42    24.09P    0.08R    0.01  
Wycombe              11   21   +5       3.69    78.61     1.48    73.25     9.60    11.34     4.53    17.95    51.91    26.27P    0.09R    0.01  
Mansfield            11   19   +5       2.49    70.48     2.76    69.92     9.44     9.46     2.14    10.16    38.42    16.88P    0.17R    0.03  
Swindon              11   19   +2       0.66    55.02    -2.93    77.79     9.98    18.77    10.63    33.52    69.40    44.33P    0.03R    0.00  
Newport_County       11   18   +3       5.03    86.83     6.28    62.86     9.40    -1.66     0.33     2.46    14.82     4.70P    1.43R    0.31  
Lincoln_City         11   16   +1       3.10    75.36     4.42    58.00     9.71    -7.99     0.10     0.96     6.89     2.08P    5.22R    1.35  
Cambridge_Utd        11   16   +0       0.30    53.06    -1.13    66.91     9.33     4.54     0.89     5.52    26.57    10.59P    0.48R    0.09  
Cheltenham           11   14   +1       0.18    52.60     2.89    58.25     9.22    -4.53     0.09     0.72     6.60     1.90P    4.00R    1.05  
Carlisle             11   14   -1      -0.73    44.53    -0.33    64.07     9.76     1.75     0.66     3.59    19.15     7.13P    1.49R    0.35  
Grimsby              11   14   -4       0.22    52.73    -1.88    57.46     9.43   -11.37     0.08     0.68     5.76     1.65P    5.51R    1.44  
Colchester           11   12   -2      -4.28    18.06    -3.86    62.97     9.76     2.16     0.48     3.18    16.54     6.72P    1.63R    0.34  
Yeovil               11   12   -7      -1.05    42.25    -3.70    50.96     9.21   -21.83     0.01     0.10     1.42     0.31P   17.12R    5.19  
Barnet               11   11   -1      -3.07    26.07     0.71    57.81     9.50    -3.05     0.11     0.80     6.65     2.08P    4.92R    1.20  
Crewe                11   11   -6      -2.71    28.29    -3.71    55.38     9.51   -11.99     0.03     0.40     3.95     1.12P    8.63R    2.51  
Crawley_Town         11   10   -3      -2.98    26.23     0.32    50.49     9.10   -14.54     0.00     0.06     1.17     0.24P   17.60R    5.76  
Morecambe            11   10   -6      -1.87    35.28    -0.78    51.27     9.31   -17.06     0.00     0.09     1.49     0.37P   16.76R    5.58  
Port_Vale            11    5   -9     -10.08     1.04    -9.13    53.63     9.86    -7.96     0.03     0.34     3.15     1.19P   11.51R    3.73  
Chesterfield         11    5  -14      -8.67     2.53   -11.58    48.80     9.97   -21.01     0.01     0.07     1.12     0.31P   25.75R   10.26  
Forest_Green         11    5  -16      -4.61    14.18    -6.30    36.11     9.10   -46.28     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   77.51R   60.78  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 September 2017, Barrow 0 1 Maidstone_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Dover_Athletic     13   24   +8       2.30    67.42     2.07    78.41     9.09    21.81    23.72    70.25    36.65P    0.11R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          13   23   +9      -0.61    44.66     0.03    80.22     9.05    27.69    32.04    76.88    46.07P    0.07R    0.00  
Sutton_United      13   23   +1       6.56    90.08     2.97    67.73     8.96     0.56     2.91    23.97     6.57P    2.14R    0.05  
Macclesfield       13   23   +0       3.80    77.13    -2.24    69.81     8.82     2.72     4.27    31.45    10.32P    1.00R    0.01  
Maidstone_United   13   22   +4       6.42    89.65     7.31    65.70     8.98     1.66     1.92    18.22     4.63P    3.72R    0.16  
Wrexham            13   22   +4       4.08    79.77     3.45    67.07     8.65     4.70     2.21    21.41     6.13P    2.01R    0.04  
Woking             13   22   +1       4.54    81.18     1.60    65.62     9.16    -2.08     2.09    18.49     4.98P    3.86R    0.13  
Aldershot          13   21   +7      -0.15    48.71     1.96    73.25     8.92    17.41     9.61    48.67    20.68P    0.38R    0.00  
Maidenhead         13   21   +6       3.64    75.45     6.63    63.28     9.68     1.51     1.67    14.78     4.26P    7.25R    0.37  
Halifax            13   21   +2       5.14    84.15     4.82    61.42     9.40    -4.23     0.81    10.11     2.47P    9.41R    0.52  
Boreham_Wood       13   18   +4       0.53    54.93     4.21    64.92     8.76     7.02     1.38    16.54     4.81P    3.51R    0.09  
Ebbsfleet_United   13   18   +3       1.69    63.28     5.29    59.51     9.64    -2.34     0.68     7.84     2.08P   13.95R    1.09  
Bromley            13   18   +2       0.90    57.78     3.07    62.33     9.03     0.69     0.81    10.92     2.75P    7.29R    0.34  
Gateshead          13   17   +3      -3.17    26.80    -0.47    66.13     9.05     9.11     2.22    20.73     6.94P    3.07R    0.09  
Leyton_Orient      13   17   -4      -3.93    22.71    -8.84    66.67     9.51     2.71     3.06    22.76     8.28P    3.74R    0.16  
Eastleigh          12   16   +2      -0.48    46.94     1.77    64.12     9.06     4.70     1.32    14.80     4.14P    4.94R    0.18  
Tranmere           13   16   +0      -6.16    10.85    -6.13    70.95     8.68    14.18     5.62    38.25    16.45P    0.71R    0.01  
Hartlepool         13   16   -2      -4.32    20.29    -5.79    67.83     9.25     7.93     3.31    26.16     9.85P    2.21R    0.07  
AFC_Fylde          13   15   -2       0.48    55.30     3.48    53.36     9.57   -13.51     0.15     2.31     0.57P   33.66R    4.61  
Barrow             13   12   -1      -7.12     7.58    -2.90    57.73     8.95     0.14     0.18     4.42     1.22P   15.89R    1.07  
Chester            12   11   -7      -3.55    23.39    -3.95    50.73     9.08   -17.69     0.02     0.88     0.14P   44.53R    6.32  
Guiseley           13    9  -15      -3.00    26.66    -6.56    41.76     8.26   -33.46     0.00     0.02     0.01P   82.58R   30.36  
Solihull_Moors     13    8  -10      -5.43    12.70    -3.03    45.21     8.72   -22.40     0.00     0.12     0.02P   68.58R   16.75  
Torquay            13    4  -15      -9.74     1.20    -8.75    40.05     8.71   -28.83     0.00     0.02     0.01P   85.40R   37.56