Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 17 February 2017 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 13 February 2017, Bournemouth 0 2 Man_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          25   60  +34      11.89    96.08    11.92    86.40     4.57    48.04    85.27    95.54    98.79    99.75   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   52  +22       3.74    69.58    -1.24    77.12     4.63    33.99     6.74    38.67    64.13    82.36    99.58     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        25   50  +28       3.41    68.25     8.51    76.02     4.70    40.80     4.50    31.84    59.17    79.36    99.19     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          25   50  +26       0.93    54.32     1.74    73.83     4.82    35.56     1.92    18.22    38.31    61.76    97.70     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        25   49  +24       4.96    75.28     7.89    72.89     4.83    33.81     1.27    12.63    29.70    52.70    96.88     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          25   48  +17       4.07    71.09     2.80    69.61     4.71    22.80     0.30     3.09     9.68    22.92    89.10     0.00     0.00  
Everton          25   41  +13       1.67    58.90     5.46    61.12     4.77    16.33     0.00     0.01     0.23     1.14    16.71     0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        25   37   +3       5.06    76.64     6.98    52.73     4.77    -0.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.68     0.00     0.00  
Stoke            25   32   -6       1.40    58.63     0.22    46.55     4.70   -11.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.42R    0.00  
West_Ham         25   32   -9      -0.84    45.77    -5.39    49.06     4.98   -10.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.17R    0.00  
Southampton      25   30   -3      -7.04    16.54    -6.86    48.20     4.74    -2.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.19R    0.00  
Burnley          25   30   -9       1.74    60.90     0.90    45.15     4.83   -13.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.16R    0.05  
Watford          25   30  -13       2.66    65.72    -1.09    44.27     4.66   -19.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.96R    0.11  
Bournemouth      25   26  -14      -0.23    49.84     1.59    39.45     4.57   -22.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.73R    1.59  
Swansea          25   24  -23      -1.70    41.31    -7.23    38.31     4.70   -29.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.29R    3.61  
Middlesbrough    25   22   -8      -6.07    19.14     0.57    36.20     4.62   -13.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.33R    6.67  
Leicester        25   21  -19     -10.17     7.28   -13.48    37.86     4.76   -21.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.62R    4.31  
Hull             25   20  -27      -2.06    39.50    -6.40    33.44     4.57   -34.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.23R   22.86  
Crystal_Palace   25   19  -14      -8.30    11.61    -2.28    31.97     4.42   -22.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.94R   27.64  
Sunderland       25   19  -22      -5.23    22.49    -4.62    31.78     4.51   -30.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.96R   33.15  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 14 February 2017, Aston_Villa 1 3 Barnsley; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Newcastle       31   66  +35       4.94    72.28     6.15    95.50     5.10    48.79    70.61    96.08   100.00    97.70P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        31   65  +26       9.53    88.28     6.74    91.56     5.24    34.80    27.61    87.23    99.89    91.68P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    31   61   +7      18.57    98.73     7.29    81.34     5.37     6.51     1.11     8.15    87.30    22.58P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         32   60   +6      15.44    96.59     5.19    78.60     5.01     5.11     0.30     3.35    75.31    16.97P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    32   57  +11      11.10    90.84     7.83    75.20     5.03     9.58     0.06     0.89    51.59    11.76P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       31   55  +10       7.08    80.81     1.97    78.53     5.33    14.44     0.28     3.19    75.23    24.54P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         32   51  +12      -1.97    40.86    -2.04    74.27     5.22    18.28     0.02     0.78    47.97    16.89P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          31   49  +15       3.08    64.19     9.92    70.20     5.35    15.48     0.00     0.13    21.22     5.44P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley        32   49   +6       6.52    77.61     8.57    66.45     5.09     2.87     0.00     0.01     5.64     1.17P    0.00R    0.00  
Preston         32   48   +4       3.38    65.78     2.67    67.00     5.02     3.82     0.00     0.00     6.92     1.70P    0.00R    0.00  
Derby           31   47   +7      -2.51    37.83    -3.33    71.62     5.29    12.97     0.01     0.19    27.81     9.30P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         32   42   -7       0.14    51.25    -3.69    60.91     5.08    -7.34     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.10P    0.37R    0.00  
Ipswich         32   40   -7      -2.32    39.26    -5.10    58.64     5.09    -7.81     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.04P    1.14R    0.00  
Birmingham      32   40  -11       0.49    53.17    -4.74    57.54     4.99   -13.29     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    2.14R    0.00  
Brentford       31   37   -1      -6.14    23.26    -1.33    59.80     5.39     2.38     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.12P    0.90R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     31   36   -6      -4.49    29.59    -3.69    55.52     5.24    -7.29     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    5.14R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   32   36  -11      -3.71    33.23    -3.85    53.93     5.16   -12.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    9.38R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   31   35   -4      -6.40    22.03    -2.28    55.86     5.30    -3.58     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    4.05R    0.01  
QPR             31   34  -14      -4.93    27.45    -8.64    52.63     5.19   -16.73     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   14.20R    0.03  
Bristol_City    31   32   -4      -6.68    21.14     2.32    50.78     5.24    -7.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.18R    0.05  
Burton_Albion   31   31  -14      -1.16    45.20     0.71    46.38     5.02   -21.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.26R    0.33  
Wigan           31   29   -9      -9.21    12.93    -3.25    48.52     5.21   -10.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.09R    0.23  
Blackburn       31   29  -13      -9.72    11.41    -7.51    47.21     5.23   -16.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.16R    0.33  
Rotherham       32   17  -38     -10.66     7.11    -9.90    28.77     4.58   -50.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.97R   99.02  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 14 February 2017, AFC_Wimbledon 1 1 Coventry; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Sheff_Utd        32   64  +24       9.40    86.90     7.55    87.23     5.16    30.02    54.09    80.92    99.73    86.38P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       31   59  +25       6.35    77.63     9.58    82.90     5.34    30.02    21.42    52.18    97.40    64.99P    0.00     0.00  
Bolton           30   57  +19       6.40    77.89     5.29    83.12     5.50    25.49    21.70    51.15    97.14    64.66P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town   32   55  +14       7.62    81.76     8.62    75.11     5.04    15.48     1.14     5.99    70.43    19.93P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         32   51  +11       1.38    56.74     2.39    71.96     5.03    13.66     0.28     1.81    46.71    13.75P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         31   50   +7       0.75    53.39    -3.13    74.01     5.35    12.30     0.86     4.47    60.84    19.81P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         31   49   +8       5.80    76.13     6.95    70.89     5.36     9.99     0.19     1.26    37.55     8.58P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     31   47   +6       0.28    51.47    -0.31    68.75     5.36     7.71     0.06     0.53    24.69     5.98P    0.00R    0.00  
Rochdale         30   47   +4       3.52    67.05     0.48    70.57     5.61     6.36     0.24     1.43    34.81     8.60P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   32   45   -2       4.92    72.04     4.39    62.51     5.11    -4.91     0.00     0.01     2.83     0.50P    0.30R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd       30   43   +4       2.14    60.81     4.25    64.39     5.48     3.44     0.00     0.08     7.68     1.74P    0.14R    0.00  
Walsall          32   43   -4      -2.05    40.69    -5.89    64.28     5.05    -0.86     0.00     0.02     5.16     1.20P    0.09R    0.00  
Charlton         30   41   +7      -3.76    32.50     1.40    65.58     5.58    10.88     0.02     0.13    12.29     3.25P    0.09R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon    30   39   +1       2.98    65.04     8.75    58.29     5.43    -2.98     0.00     0.00     0.79     0.13P    2.71R    0.03  
MK_Dons          31   39   +1      -6.98    20.50    -4.21    60.10     5.36     1.90     0.00     0.00     1.66     0.45P    1.00R    0.01  
Northampton      32   39   -4      -0.70    47.45     3.20    56.33     5.11    -7.42     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.04P    5.32R    0.09  
Gillingham       31   35   -9      -6.49    21.69    -7.06    54.89     5.41   -10.17     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   10.07R    0.37  
Shrewsbury       32   35  -12      -1.56    43.09    -0.95    51.86     5.04   -15.41     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    23.14R    1.23  
Oldham           32   34  -12      -2.69    37.24    -3.13    49.66     4.80   -16.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.54R    2.52  
Port_Vale        30   33  -16      -2.03    40.78    -6.53    51.90     5.36   -20.49     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   26.22R    1.91  
Bury             32   31  -12      -5.72    24.81     0.61    47.29     5.00   -16.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.83R    7.81  
Swindon          32   29  -18      -9.39    12.70    -9.56    46.28     4.98   -20.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.39R   11.81  
Chesterfield     31   27  -20      -8.17    15.42    -8.80    43.91     5.09   -25.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.66R   23.77  
Coventry         31   22  -22     -14.79     2.63   -13.89    40.61     5.20   -24.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.50R   50.46  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 14 February 2017, Carlisle 2 1 Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Doncaster            31   63  +23       6.10    76.35     0.72    90.38     5.39    33.46    64.30    96.91    99.98    97.87P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             30   60  +17       8.60    85.20     1.86    86.83     5.55    24.42    28.96    88.47    99.75    91.60P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             31   55  +10       8.89    85.17     4.84    77.74     5.43    13.25     1.65    31.15    89.00    43.14P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                31   52  +18       2.43    61.18     7.60    75.16     5.37    21.84     0.88    18.41    80.47    34.83P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           30   51  +16       1.02    54.83     2.94    79.26     5.53    25.25     3.81    46.06    93.91    61.03P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               31   49  +16       1.65    57.67     8.76    72.99     5.40    21.06     0.27     9.95    68.22    24.17P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            31   47   +7       2.65    62.65     4.11    66.95     5.31     6.20     0.01     1.05    23.25     5.66P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              30   46   +1       3.89    68.50    -0.70    69.05     5.55     2.79     0.05     2.32    35.55     9.54P    0.00R    0.00  
Stevenage            31   45   +1       2.85    63.70     1.98    64.62     5.40    -0.63     0.00     0.41    12.77     2.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Colchester           30   44   +7      -2.07    40.44    -0.32    68.82     5.76    11.30     0.05     2.82    37.61    11.50P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet               31   44   -2       3.53    66.66     1.35    64.43     5.39    -2.27     0.00     0.23    11.39     2.20P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool            30   41  +12      -8.02    17.14     0.46    68.18     5.57    19.71     0.02     2.02    34.83    12.88P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby              31   41   -3       2.67    63.28     2.99    58.73     5.25    -6.98     0.00     0.01     1.50     0.28P    0.14R    0.01  
Cambridge_Utd        30   40   +2      -1.85    41.56     0.90    62.72     5.60     3.19     0.00     0.16     8.03     2.01P    0.04R    0.01  
Crawley_Town         30   39   -9       4.47    71.64     1.42    57.78     5.48   -13.78     0.00     0.01     1.11     0.15P    0.59R    0.10  
Yeovil               31   38   -5      -0.62    47.73     0.00    56.72     5.26    -7.41     0.00     0.01     0.56     0.10P    0.64R    0.12  
Morecambe            29   38   -9       3.78    68.69     0.33    58.32     5.71   -14.06     0.00     0.02     1.79     0.30P    0.64R    0.12  
Crewe                31   35  -11      -4.13    31.58    -6.02    54.34     5.36   -12.82     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.04P    2.81R    0.70  
Hartlepool           31   31  -18      -0.98    46.22    -1.14    45.51     5.06   -27.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.92R   18.01  
Accrington_Stanley   29   30  -11      -8.44    14.34    -9.07    52.09     5.71   -12.89     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    6.44R    2.07  
Notts_County         31   30  -22      -3.04    36.17    -6.60    44.48     5.02   -32.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.17R   25.16  
Cheltenham           31   29  -12      -8.53    15.30    -4.81    46.81     5.24   -16.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.00R   10.62  
Leyton_Orient        31   29  -14     -10.94     9.25   -10.13    48.97     5.33   -14.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   15.99R    6.04  
Newport_County       30   25  -14      -7.72    16.34    -1.48    42.44     5.27   -20.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.62R   37.03  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 15 February 2017, Macclesfield 0 1 Barrow; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Lincoln_City       30   64  +30      12.65    94.28    14.00    91.43     5.61    38.46    46.44    98.93    57.63P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red          31   61  +22       3.97    67.81    -0.30    88.18     5.26    32.52    20.87    96.49    43.06P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       31   60  +27       2.63    62.03     3.87    88.03     5.17    39.00    21.88    97.14    44.53P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere           30   57  +17       5.13    73.51     1.26    85.94     5.40    27.15     9.97    91.77    33.03P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             31   53  +18       6.41    77.84    12.05    76.82     5.40    22.81     0.28    38.89     6.50P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     31   53  +15       1.75    57.97     1.48    78.46     5.35    22.79     0.52    52.48    10.72P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot          32   51  +10       5.84    75.72     8.06    70.38     5.06    10.40     0.00     5.55     0.79P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          32   49  +18      -1.06    44.98     8.93    70.12     5.17    21.02     0.00     6.49     1.21P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield       30   47  +11      -0.53    47.41     1.52    71.73     5.49    15.08     0.03    10.78     2.31P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            33   46   -6      -0.64    47.24    -8.07    62.98     4.85    -7.09     0.00     0.16     0.03P    0.03R    0.00  
Bromley            31   45   -3       4.63    71.40     0.69    63.78     5.19    -6.29     0.00     0.38     0.04P    0.03R    0.00  
Chester            32   43   +6      -1.85    41.62     4.97    62.51     5.19     6.15     0.00     0.22     0.03P    0.08R    0.00  
Eastleigh          31   42   +4      -5.09    27.14    -2.87    63.41     5.40     5.06     0.00     0.52     0.09P    0.03R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       31   42   +2       1.73    59.19     4.36    62.31     5.23     2.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    0.10R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     32   40   -4       0.71    54.14     3.60    56.71     5.08    -8.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.85R    0.01  
Braintree_Town     31   37  -14      -3.65    33.02   -11.15    57.65     5.27   -13.64     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.92R    0.01  
Sutton_United      30   36   -9       1.97    60.36     1.69    53.91     5.33   -15.18     0.00     0.00     0.00P    7.74R    0.15  
Torquay            32   34   -9      -5.17    27.22    -1.69    51.68     5.05   -11.54     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.09R    0.39  
Woking             32   33  -15      -7.66    18.40    -8.91    51.13     5.02   -17.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.85R    0.70  
Guiseley           32   32  -13      -3.15    35.61     0.93    46.85     4.83   -19.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.04R    3.41  
Maidstone_United   32   30  -25      -0.68    47.90    -3.03    42.19     4.65   -37.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.82R   20.54  
Southport          32   30  -32      -0.76    47.39    -8.98    43.30     4.80   -42.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.05R   16.76  
York               31   27  -20     -13.32     5.26   -16.59    45.41     5.30   -23.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.86R    7.34  
North_Ferriby      32   27  -30      -0.37    49.39    -5.83    38.89     4.57   -40.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.51R   50.67