Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 9 February 2017 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 5 February 2017, Leicester 0 3 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          24   59  +34      12.61    97.31    12.30    87.49     4.79    49.14    86.66    96.64    99.20    99.81   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        24   50  +30       4.31    73.36     9.65    77.66     4.96    43.27     7.27    47.70    73.52    88.43    99.53     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         24   49  +20       2.99    66.13    -1.78    76.10     4.88    33.05     3.99    29.12    58.85    80.30    99.11     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          24   47  +24       0.52    52.24     1.71    73.32     4.98    35.55     1.44    15.84    36.72    63.08    96.88     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        24   46  +22       3.89    70.58     6.84    71.08     5.13    31.53     0.52     7.92    21.95    43.53    93.01     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          24   45  +15       3.30    67.45     2.12    68.75     4.93    21.93     0.12     2.70     9.27    22.53    84.87     0.00     0.00  
Everton          24   40  +13       2.11    61.30     5.54    61.65     5.03    16.51     0.00     0.07     0.50     2.29    25.09     0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        24   36   +3       5.31    78.16     6.77    52.78     5.01    -0.78     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     1.16     0.01R    0.00  
West_Ham         24   31   -9      -0.21    49.48    -5.07    49.63     5.21   -10.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.23R    0.01  
Watford          24   30  -11       3.13    68.24    -0.50    44.99     4.84   -18.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.93R    0.10  
Stoke            24   29   -7       0.17    51.71    -0.07    45.30     4.94   -11.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.71R    0.08  
Burnley          24   29   -9       1.81    61.32     0.48    44.86     5.04   -14.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.37R    0.17  
Southampton      24   27   -7      -7.24    15.24    -8.72    46.20     4.98    -7.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.01R    0.06  
Bournemouth      24   26  -12       0.19    52.10     2.01    40.45     4.81   -21.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.20R    1.57  
Middlesbrough    24   21   -8      -5.82    19.60     0.60    36.31     4.87   -13.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.74R    9.23  
Leicester        24   21  -17      -9.44     8.74   -12.47    39.46     5.01   -18.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.55R    3.34  
Swansea          24   21  -25      -2.96    33.72    -8.39    36.44     4.97   -31.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.27R   11.00  
Hull             24   20  -25      -1.73    41.13    -6.25    33.82     4.77   -34.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.78R   25.30  
Crystal_Palace   24   19  -13      -7.54    13.65    -2.06    33.17     4.68   -22.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.94R   24.09  
Sunderland       24   19  -18      -5.07    22.73    -2.73    33.41     4.76   -26.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.28R   25.05  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 7 February 2017, Wigan 2 2 Norwich; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Newcastle       29   62  +34       4.47    71.05     6.34    94.72     5.56    48.56    67.60    95.89    99.96    97.50P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        29   61  +23      10.29    90.66     6.78    91.34     5.58    33.21    30.93    89.01    99.84    92.66P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         30   56   +5      14.64    96.42     4.90    77.92     5.43     5.01     0.43     4.13    73.82    17.77P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    29   55   +5      16.09    97.87     6.36    77.76     5.76     4.07     0.50     3.96    71.90    16.05P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    30   54  +12      10.69    90.74     8.54    76.19     5.47    12.38     0.25     2.53    64.50    16.11P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       29   49   +6       5.81    77.22     0.76    75.61     5.72    10.90     0.14     1.85    60.37    17.98P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         30   47   +8      -1.53    42.52    -3.27    73.11     5.64    14.43     0.05     0.99    44.60    14.97P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           29   46   +8      -0.29    48.51    -1.55    74.69     5.62    15.89     0.09     1.52    56.21    20.02P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley        30   45   +4       5.97    76.24     7.69    64.10     5.50    -0.90     0.00     0.01     4.36     0.84P    0.14R    0.00  
Fulham          29   43  +13       0.87    54.56     9.48    67.79     5.79    14.83     0.01     0.10    15.70     3.93P    0.02R    0.00  
Preston         30   42   +1       1.49    57.86     1.51    63.76     5.39     0.86     0.00     0.00     3.39     0.79P    0.13R    0.00  
Birmingham      30   40   -7       1.41    57.76    -3.43    59.84     5.36    -9.72     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.12P    1.25R    0.00  
Brentford       29   37   +2      -4.42    29.29    -0.12    62.49     5.81     5.35     0.00     0.00     3.05     0.86P    0.46R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     29   36   -3      -2.61    37.74    -1.94    59.57     5.74    -2.42     0.00     0.00     0.85     0.20P    1.85R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   30   36   -6      -2.99    36.23    -2.47    56.26     5.54    -8.57     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.04P    5.81R    0.00  
Ipswich         30   36   -8      -3.69    32.57    -6.26    56.15     5.37   -10.53     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    5.35R    0.01  
Cardiff         30   36  -10      -2.68    37.60    -6.23    56.15     5.43   -12.46     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    5.71R    0.01  
Wolverhampton   29   35   -2      -4.29    29.82    -1.21    58.85     5.67    -1.23     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.12P    2.05R    0.01  
QPR             30   34  -13      -3.72    32.41    -7.97    54.26     5.39   -15.25     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   10.77R    0.03  
Bristol_City    29   31   -3      -5.80    23.43     1.83    51.46     5.59    -7.77     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    21.72R    0.13  
Burton_Albion   30   31  -11      -1.22    44.83     1.26    47.23     5.14   -19.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.59R    0.60  
Blackburn       29   28  -12      -8.42    13.90    -7.15    48.65     5.56   -16.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.20R    0.62  
Wigan           29   26   -9      -9.61    11.09    -3.62    47.19     5.60   -11.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.04R    1.13  
Rotherham       30   16  -37      -9.53     8.64   -10.19    30.22     5.01   -49.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.89R   97.46  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 7 February 2017, MK_Dons 1 0 Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Sheff_Utd        30   60  +23       8.38    84.88     6.77    86.03     5.64    29.07    40.64    73.97    99.01    80.89P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       29   58  +26       8.23    84.93    10.54    86.37     5.75    33.67    45.43    77.10    99.02    83.43P    0.00     0.00  
Bolton           28   51  +15       5.21    74.19     4.27    80.13     5.93    21.85    10.17    29.78    89.36    46.85P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town   30   51  +13       6.74    79.96     8.22    74.21     5.47    14.97     1.06     5.38    61.04    17.56P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         30   50  +12       2.52    62.23     2.62    73.71     5.44    14.72     0.99     4.71    58.10    19.17P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         29   46   +7       5.83    76.69     6.39    69.63     5.78     7.47     0.16     1.09    28.76     6.50P    0.01R    0.00  
Rochdale         28   46   +5       4.54    71.80     0.47    71.60     6.00     6.22     0.69     2.99    40.43    10.93P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough     29   44   +6       0.18    50.96    -0.06    69.50     5.79     9.26     0.19     1.25    29.62     7.93P    0.00R    0.00  
Millwall         29   44   +4      -0.81    46.10    -3.60    71.59     5.80    10.59     0.49     2.52    42.51    13.32P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   30   43   -2       5.41    74.59     4.20    63.16     5.60    -5.14     0.00     0.05     4.56     0.76P    0.29R    0.00  
Walsall          30   42   -1      -1.73    41.82    -4.94    65.34     5.44     1.14     0.01     0.10     8.61     2.12P    0.08R    0.00  
Charlton         28   40   +8      -2.46    37.84     1.80    67.75     6.04    12.57     0.13     0.78    22.10     6.61P    0.04R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd       28   40   +5       1.53    57.89     4.80    64.94     5.99     5.63     0.04     0.23    10.54     2.45P    0.18R    0.00  
MK_Dons          29   38   +2      -5.46    25.23    -3.43    61.74     5.90     2.66     0.01     0.04     4.06     1.07P    0.78R    0.02  
AFC_Wimbledon    28   37   +1       3.75    69.16     8.97    59.27     5.89    -2.66     0.00     0.01     1.67     0.29P    2.21R    0.05  
Northampton      30   33   -7      -2.76    37.55     2.14    53.55     5.54    -9.67     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   14.12R    0.92  
Gillingham       29   33   -9      -5.10    26.15    -6.07    56.78     5.81    -8.47     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.09P    6.14R    0.29  
Shrewsbury       30   32  -12      -2.45    38.41    -1.89    49.98     5.33   -18.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.20R    3.56  
Port_Vale        28   32  -14      -1.58    42.52    -6.45    52.77     5.79   -19.99     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   20.67R    1.75  
Swindon          30   29  -16      -7.68    16.79    -8.97    48.68     5.44   -19.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.14R    6.64  
Oldham           30   28  -14      -5.25    24.72    -4.11    46.02     5.20   -18.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.82R   12.73  
Bury             30   27  -13      -6.59    20.77     0.61    46.19     5.49   -17.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.71R   13.55  
Chesterfield     29   26  -18      -7.49    16.38    -8.41    44.93     5.53   -25.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.47R   20.34  
Coventry         29   21  -21     -13.72     3.21   -13.88    41.95     5.60   -24.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.15R   40.15  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 7 February 2017, Blackpool 0 0 Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Doncaster            29   62  +24       7.74    82.79     1.39    93.24     5.85    36.19    75.20    98.43    99.98    98.91P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             28   57  +15       9.60    88.80     1.80    87.09     5.93    23.07    21.29    87.78    99.44    90.83P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             29   52  +12       8.03    83.57     5.84    77.46     5.86    15.18     1.38    33.18    85.55    44.14P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               29   48  +19       2.50    62.01    10.49    75.31     5.83    24.98     0.75    22.64    79.09    37.09P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                29   46  +14       1.24    56.09     6.63    72.65     5.79    18.96     0.23    11.29    63.20    24.75P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              28   46   +5       5.27    75.09     1.36    72.66     5.97     8.02     0.20    10.05    59.70    21.00P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           28   45  +12      -0.54    47.31     1.47    76.04     5.98    21.31     0.82    26.30    81.34    42.91P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            29   43   +3       3.20    65.97     2.53    65.69     5.71     2.29     0.01     0.96    17.24     4.27P    0.00R    0.00  
Colchester           28   41   +7      -2.00    40.41     0.15    69.64     6.18    12.94     0.08     5.08    42.33    14.66P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet               29   41   -2       3.16    65.47     1.14    63.75     5.79    -2.97     0.00     0.38    10.38     2.26P    0.02R    0.00  
Grimsby              29   40   +2       2.35    61.75     4.91    61.52     5.76    -0.42     0.00     0.17     5.61     1.22P    0.06R    0.01  
Cambridge_Utd        28   39   +4      -0.77    46.39     1.90    64.99     6.06     5.99     0.02     0.93    16.37     4.37P    0.03R    0.00  
Stevenage            29   39   -3       1.18    56.40     0.41    61.12     5.80    -5.01     0.00     0.12     4.99     1.06P    0.12R    0.02  
Blackpool            28   38  +11      -7.99    16.07    -0.03    67.49     6.06    18.06     0.02     2.64    30.77    11.82P    0.01R    0.00  
Yeovil               29   36   -5       0.31    52.27     0.26    57.59     5.68    -7.19     0.00     0.01     1.18     0.27P    0.68R    0.13  
Crawley_Town         28   36   -9       3.86    69.83     0.59    55.96     5.81   -16.17     0.00     0.01     0.81     0.12P    1.65R    0.40  
Morecambe            27   35  -10       3.88    69.81     0.03    57.44     6.11   -16.00     0.00     0.04     1.67     0.26P    1.27R    0.25  
Hartlepool           29   31  -11      -1.17    44.89     0.97    48.25     5.48   -20.59     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   19.98R    7.13  
Accrington_Stanley   27   29   -9      -7.32    17.10    -8.10    53.25     6.09   -11.59     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.07P    5.06R    1.38  
Cheltenham           29   29  -10      -6.83    20.01    -4.47    49.74     5.71   -13.72     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   12.66R    4.20  
Crewe                29   29  -17      -4.74    28.42    -8.21    49.62     5.74   -20.81     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    15.08R    5.39  
Notts_County         29   26  -23      -4.38    29.50    -7.94    42.75     5.46   -33.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.15R   36.32  
Leyton_Orient        29   25  -15     -12.17     6.04   -11.21    46.86     5.72   -17.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.93R   11.61  
Newport_County       28   23  -14      -7.41    16.46    -1.92    42.65     5.71   -21.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.28R   33.17  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 February 2017, Bromley 1 0 Torquay; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Lincoln_City       29   61  +29      11.76    93.04    14.20    90.40     5.80    38.47    44.02    97.98    55.32P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red          30   58  +19       3.97    68.02    -0.66    86.73     5.47    29.77    17.18    93.23    38.19P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       30   57  +25       2.02    59.26     3.44    86.74     5.35    37.48    19.09    94.57    41.65P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere           29   56  +17       5.80    77.01     1.69    87.12     5.57    28.32    17.73    93.37    39.73P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     30   52  +15       2.56    61.94     2.00    79.33     5.58    23.63     1.39    58.09    12.84P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot          31   50  +10       6.12    77.22     7.88    70.92     5.28    10.66     0.02     7.36     1.18P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             29   49  +17       5.36    74.86    11.35    74.86     5.79    20.83     0.31    26.09     4.69P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          31   46  +17      -2.31    39.18     8.51    68.15     5.36    19.44     0.00     3.44     0.73P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield       28   46  +12       1.06    55.26     2.23    74.24     5.95    17.19     0.26    22.04     4.97P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham            32   45   -6      -0.30    48.79    -8.21    62.91     5.03    -7.82     0.00     0.21     0.02P    0.04R    0.00  
Bromley            30   44   -3       4.52    71.13    -0.03    63.49     5.35    -7.28     0.00     0.45     0.05P    0.05R    0.00  
Chester            31   43   +7      -0.94    45.84     5.26    63.99     5.39     7.38     0.00     0.60     0.09P    0.05R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       30   42   +4       2.05    60.72     4.87    63.26     5.39     3.38     0.00     0.38     0.06P    0.05R    0.00  
Eastleigh          29   41   +6      -3.68    32.29    -1.45    66.37     5.80     8.82     0.00     2.14     0.45P    0.02R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     30   37   -6       1.58    58.35     3.27    55.86     5.48   -11.23     0.00     0.01     0.00P    3.96R    0.06  
Sutton_United      28   36   -5       2.86    64.90     2.82    57.12     5.85   -10.29     0.00     0.04     0.01P    3.24R    0.06  
Torquay            31   33   -9      -5.10    26.93    -2.12    51.87     5.25   -11.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.92R    0.48  
Braintree_Town     29   31  -17      -5.86    23.08   -12.65    54.21     5.62   -16.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.58R    0.33  
Woking             30   30  -15      -8.09    16.25    -9.45    50.50     5.43   -18.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.01R    1.41  
Southport          31   30  -29      -0.54    48.41    -8.12    44.24     4.97   -39.88     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.84R   13.81  
Maidstone_United   31   29  -25      -0.45    49.05    -3.04    41.79     4.84   -38.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.18R   26.07  
Guiseley           30   28  -14      -4.03    30.65     0.60    45.36     5.29   -21.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.68R    8.45  
North_Ferriby      31   27  -29      -0.03    51.52    -6.13    39.84     4.74   -40.22     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.52R   43.08  
York               30   26  -20     -12.72     5.60   -16.25    46.55     5.47   -22.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.86R    6.24