Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 1 February 2017 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 February 2017, Man_Utd 0 0 Hull; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          23   56  +32      11.70    96.66    11.61    85.98     5.05    47.22    78.72    92.56    97.54    99.39   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        23   47  +29       3.47    69.37     9.69    76.81     5.12    43.43     8.38    39.47    64.57    83.33    99.44     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          23   47  +26       1.19    56.13     2.58    74.60     5.15    37.51     4.54    22.52    44.90    68.88    98.65     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        23   46  +24       5.12    77.20     8.34    73.41     5.32    35.05     2.79    16.94    35.73    59.32    97.60     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         23   46  +19       2.33    62.75    -1.08    75.67     5.04    34.43     5.47    27.20    52.42    75.40    99.15     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          23   42  +12       2.69    65.00     0.59    66.75     5.19    18.31     0.09     1.28     4.56    12.35    78.53     0.00     0.00  
Everton          23   37  +10       1.83    60.35     4.75    60.63     5.15    14.53     0.00     0.04     0.28     1.33    24.88     0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        23   33   +2       4.06    73.24     6.44    51.17     5.21    -1.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.12     0.04R    0.00  
Stoke            23   29   -6       0.99    56.64     0.20    46.38     5.13   -11.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.20R    0.02  
Burnley          23   29   -8       2.72    66.67     0.81    46.29     5.23   -12.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     1.31R    0.04  
West_Ham         23   28  -11      -1.45    41.98    -6.35    47.24     5.37   -13.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.98R    0.04  
Southampton      23   27   -5      -6.33    17.69    -7.48    48.54     5.18    -3.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.44R    0.01  
Watford          23   27  -12       1.90    62.11    -0.84    43.49     5.03   -19.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     4.27R    0.27  
Bournemouth      23   26   -9       0.52    53.97     2.71    41.34     4.96   -18.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     9.05R    0.55  
Middlesbrough    23   21   -7      -5.31    21.64     0.38    36.84     5.03   -13.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.58R    5.34  
Leicester        23   21  -14      -9.00     9.23   -10.97    41.25     5.24   -15.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.54R    1.14  
Swansea          23   21  -24      -2.30    37.34    -8.86    36.85     5.05   -32.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.09R    7.00  
Crystal_Palace   23   19   -9      -7.02    15.08     0.35    35.51     4.94   -16.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.37R    8.61  
Hull             23   17  -27      -3.15    32.22    -7.66    31.04     4.86   -38.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.07R   38.39  
Sunderland       23   16  -22      -5.82    18.25    -5.20    30.74     4.92   -32.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.06R   38.60  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 February 2017, Blackburn 1 2 Leeds_United; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Brighton        27   60  +25      11.61    94.36     8.31    93.92     6.03    36.39    48.51    93.43    99.95    95.63P    0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       28   59  +33       3.35    66.20     5.97    93.58     5.80    48.27    50.08    93.48    99.94    96.21P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         29   55   +5      14.93    96.74     4.72    78.13     5.68     4.81     0.52     4.17    76.26    17.71P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    29   54  +13      11.73    93.31     9.06    77.53     5.68    13.34     0.40     3.75    74.48    19.20P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    27   49   +2      13.88    96.61     4.90    73.60     6.12    -0.18     0.13     1.16    46.63     9.13P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           28   46   +9       0.67    53.20    -1.15    75.61     5.79    16.24     0.22     2.06    64.83    23.06P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       28   46   +5       4.52    72.40     0.24    73.84     5.91     9.70     0.06     1.00    51.04    14.48P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley        29   44   +4       6.29    78.19     7.64    64.75     5.74    -0.52     0.00     0.02     6.92     1.37P    0.10R    0.00  
Fulham          28   43  +14       1.87    59.37     9.88    69.35     6.03    16.14     0.01     0.27    25.72     6.60P    0.01R    0.00  
Norwich         28   43   +7      -2.36    38.33    -3.60    71.84     6.11    13.38     0.07     0.64    39.63    13.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Preston         29   41   +1       1.66    58.48     1.25    64.05     5.65     0.72     0.00     0.01     5.24     1.18P    0.16R    0.00  
Birmingham      29   37   -8       0.13    51.49    -3.86    58.12     5.58   -10.92     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.09P    2.47R    0.00  
Brentford       28   36   +2      -4.09    30.26    -0.24    62.71     6.00     5.15     0.00     0.01     4.21     1.05P    0.47R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     28   36   -2      -1.61    42.40    -1.51    60.96     5.94    -1.37     0.00     0.00     2.14     0.58P    0.97R    0.01  
Cardiff         29   36   -9      -1.55    42.86    -5.52    57.63     5.63   -11.36     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.08P    3.01R    0.02  
Wolverhampton   28   35   -1      -3.26    34.19    -0.70    60.55     5.90     0.29     0.00     0.00     1.74     0.37P    1.15R    0.00  
Ipswich         29   35   -8      -3.22    34.34    -6.10    56.70     5.61   -10.21     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.06P    4.14R    0.01  
QPR             29   34  -12      -2.87    36.32    -7.71    55.65     5.61   -14.20     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P    6.40R    0.03  
Nott'm_Forest   29   33   -7      -4.17    30.05    -2.87    54.54     5.72    -9.68     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    8.97R    0.04  
Bristol_City    28   28   -4      -6.76    19.74     1.92    50.46     5.82    -7.80     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   24.43R    0.46  
Burton_Albion   29   28  -12      -2.61    37.53     0.56    45.21     5.30   -20.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.54R    1.98  
Wigan           27   25   -8      -8.40    13.60    -3.33    48.91     6.03   -10.89     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    35.09R    1.02  
Blackburn       28   25  -13      -9.81     9.61    -7.72    47.15     5.78   -16.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   48.42R    1.58  
Rotherham       29   16  -36      -8.80    10.26   -10.12    30.93     5.22   -49.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.69R   94.85  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 1 February 2017, Millwall 0 0 Walsall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Scunthorpe       28   58  +28       9.07    87.87    11.70    88.18     5.94    36.29    59.46    84.00    99.55    88.55P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        29   57  +19       8.50    85.77     5.51    84.40     5.84    25.08    25.95    61.91    97.75    71.43P    0.00     0.00  
Bolton           27   50  +15       5.60    76.24     4.36    80.38     6.16    21.69    10.64    32.33    90.43    48.86P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town   29   50  +13       7.14    81.55     8.25    74.09     5.63    14.31     1.09     5.78    62.54    18.19P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         29   49  +12       3.27    66.18     3.12    74.53     5.66    15.38     1.35     6.95    65.63    22.62P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale         27   45   +5       5.06    74.35     0.68    72.64     6.19     7.29     0.89     4.69    50.27    14.55P    0.01R    0.00  
Southend         28   43   +5       4.81    73.32     5.35    67.47     5.95     4.67     0.05     0.58    19.91     4.41P    0.05R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   29   42   -2       5.49    75.17     3.85    62.95     5.81    -6.25     0.00     0.05     5.60     1.00P    0.60R    0.01  
Peterborough     28   41   +3      -0.35    48.40    -1.29    67.32     6.02     5.37     0.09     0.62    20.79     5.25P    0.07R    0.00  
Millwall         28   41   +2      -2.07    39.77    -5.01    69.87     6.02     8.43     0.25     1.52    34.36    10.40P    0.03R    0.00  
Charlton         27   39   +8      -2.13    39.46     1.76    68.56     6.23    13.19     0.20     1.29    28.93     8.90P    0.05R    0.00  
Walsall          29   39   -2      -2.76    36.67    -5.07    64.16     5.64     0.82     0.00     0.06     7.65     1.93P    0.28R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon    27   37   +5       3.54    68.14    10.39    60.62     6.08     1.29     0.00     0.04     3.64     0.72P    1.72R    0.05  
Oxford_Utd       27   37   +4       0.27    51.64     4.36    63.05     6.17     4.23     0.00     0.12     7.41     1.74P    0.77R    0.02  
MK_Dons          27   34   +1      -6.37    20.88    -3.98    61.16     6.28     2.63     0.01     0.06     4.46     1.23P    1.87R    0.05  
Northampton      29   33   -6      -1.85    41.95     2.36    54.49     5.72    -9.43     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P   13.92R    0.96  
Gillingham       28   32   -9      -5.10    25.91    -6.62    56.56     6.03    -9.33     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.14P    8.73R    0.52  
Port_Vale        27   32  -11      -1.00    45.65    -4.73    54.68     6.04   -16.13     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.05P   15.40R    1.22  
Shrewsbury       29   29  -13      -3.65    32.15    -2.21    48.50     5.59   -18.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   49.89R    8.83  
Swindon          29   29  -15      -6.58    20.07    -8.51    50.25     5.63   -18.05     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    37.68R    5.40  
Bury             29   27  -12      -5.62    24.01     0.97    47.44     5.72   -17.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   55.40R   12.16  
Chesterfield     28   26  -17      -6.32    20.76    -7.76    46.94     5.75   -23.30     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   61.51R   14.95  
Oldham           28   25  -14      -6.11    20.18    -4.67    44.82     5.57   -20.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.39R   23.56  
Coventry         28   21  -19     -13.03     3.84   -12.83    43.60     5.85   -22.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.62R   32.28  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 31 January 2017, Exeter 4 2 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Doncaster            28   61  +24       8.53    85.87     2.03    94.83     5.96    38.33    84.01    99.19   100.00    99.44P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             27   54  +14       8.28    85.63     1.21    85.45     6.21    22.10    12.73    81.90    98.60    86.28P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             28   49  +11       6.78    79.81     5.51    75.71     6.13    13.99     0.84    24.99    77.60    35.97P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               28   45  +15       2.43    62.08     8.80    73.54     6.05    20.69     0.36    16.19    69.02    29.02P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                28   45  +14       1.51    57.51     6.54    73.36     6.03    19.49     0.34    15.39    67.44    29.05P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           27   45  +13       0.64    53.05     2.11    77.66     6.17    22.73     1.40    38.71    86.67    52.88P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              27   43   +4       3.83    69.26     0.67    70.61     6.19     6.44     0.07     6.83    46.27    15.63P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet               28   41   +0       3.91    69.26     2.23    65.62     6.03    -0.20     0.01     1.10    18.42     4.36P    0.02R    0.00  
Colchester           27   40   +7      -1.50    42.85     0.36    69.51     6.44    12.15     0.11     6.14    42.38    15.45P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            28   40   +1       2.14    61.34     1.40    63.72     5.94    -0.19     0.00     0.53    11.32     2.74P    0.03R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        27   39   +5       0.14    50.84     2.27    66.42     6.23     7.03     0.02     1.99    23.67     6.88P    0.02R    0.00  
Grimsby              28   39   +2       2.53    62.89     4.71    61.69     5.95    -0.73     0.00     0.28     6.57     1.50P    0.13R    0.01  
Blackpool            26   36  +11      -6.92    18.46     0.39    69.43     6.45    19.87     0.09     6.55    43.93    19.17P    0.00R    0.00  
Stevenage            28   36   -4      -0.17    50.08    -0.14    59.40     6.01    -6.15     0.00     0.09     3.32     0.73P    0.57R    0.11  
Yeovil               28   35   -5       0.75    54.70     0.45    58.01     5.87    -7.10     0.00     0.04     1.70     0.33P    1.00R    0.20  
Crawley_Town         26   35   -8       4.78    74.69     0.49    57.28     6.22   -15.95     0.00     0.04     1.77     0.33P    1.87R    0.39  
Morecambe            25   31  -11       2.35    63.41    -1.45    54.76     6.46   -19.77     0.00     0.02     0.88     0.15P    5.50R    1.83  
Hartlepool           28   30  -11      -0.78    47.00     1.10    48.48     5.74   -20.82     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   22.82R    8.47  
Crewe                28   29  -13      -4.99    26.82    -6.69    51.26     5.97   -16.45     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   11.81R    4.07  
Cheltenham           28   28  -10      -6.15    22.09    -3.99    50.30     5.96   -13.53     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   14.41R    5.30  
Accrington_Stanley   26   26  -11      -8.20    13.62    -8.96    51.74     6.32   -13.43     0.00     0.01     0.21     0.06P   10.86R    3.89  
Notts_County         28   26  -21      -3.77    31.61    -7.02    43.94     5.68   -32.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.76R   32.31  
Leyton_Orient        27   25  -13      -9.97     9.60    -9.93    50.16     6.16   -14.29     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   15.81R    6.14  
Newport_County       27   22  -14      -7.30    16.50    -2.11    42.82     5.93   -22.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   59.40R   37.26  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 31 January 2017, Solihull_Moors 0 1 Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Lincoln_City       29   61  +29      11.77    93.38    14.23    90.38     5.79    38.38    44.91    98.14    56.42P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       30   57  +25       1.97    59.04     3.28    86.78     5.34    37.49    20.01    94.87    41.93P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere           29   56  +17       5.85    77.19     1.79    87.09     5.61    28.25    18.43    93.65    39.88P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red          29   55  +18       2.91    63.52    -0.67    85.74     5.71    29.67    14.44    90.26    36.25P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     30   52  +15       2.39    61.33     1.75    79.48     5.59    23.84     1.57    60.39    13.32P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             29   49  +17       5.36    74.98    11.37    74.81     5.80    20.74     0.33    26.91     4.69P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot          30   47   +8       5.44    75.22     7.33    69.32     5.48     8.66     0.01     5.03     0.77P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield       28   46  +12       0.94    54.73     2.06    74.29     5.92    17.28     0.29    23.41     5.37P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          30   43  +14      -2.55    37.91     7.78    66.94     5.59    17.16     0.00     2.82     0.53P    0.01R    0.00  
Chester            30   43   +8      -0.20    49.33     5.15    64.82     5.59     7.44     0.00     1.14     0.18P    0.06R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       30   42   +4       2.23    61.67     5.12    63.11     5.39     3.22     0.00     0.41     0.07P    0.09R    0.00  
Wrexham            31   42   -8      -1.12    45.12    -9.05    61.60     5.22    -9.36     0.00     0.14     0.03P    0.33R    0.00  
Eastleigh          29   41   +6      -3.72    32.00    -1.51    66.47     5.82     9.05     0.01     2.49     0.51P    0.02R    0.00  
Bromley            29   41   -4       3.49    67.18    -0.05    61.98     5.58    -8.11     0.00     0.28     0.04P    0.30R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     30   37   -6       1.46    57.64     3.02    55.95     5.54   -11.13     0.00     0.02     0.00P    4.87R    0.09  
Sutton_United      28   36   -5       2.87    64.98     2.85    57.08     5.84   -10.37     0.00     0.03     0.00P    3.96R    0.10  
Torquay            30   33   -8      -4.04    31.03    -1.47    53.02     5.43   -11.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.44R    0.43  
Braintree_Town     29   31  -17      -5.73    23.55   -12.43    54.09     5.68   -17.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.40R    0.43  
Woking             30   30  -15      -8.36    15.34    -9.85    50.55     5.49   -18.14     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.42R    1.88  
Southport          30   30  -26      -0.44    48.88    -7.41    45.19     5.15   -37.63     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.94R   12.06  
Maidstone_United   30   29  -23      -0.16    50.69    -2.82    43.28     5.13   -35.97     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.36R   20.25  
Guiseley           29   28  -12      -3.41    33.45     1.36    46.45     5.45   -19.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.55R    7.32  
North_Ferriby      31   27  -29       0.23    52.77    -5.75    39.75     4.70   -40.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.35R   49.99  
York               30   26  -20     -12.61     5.81   -16.07    46.45     5.52   -22.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.91R    7.45