Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 31 January 2017 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 31 January 2017, Arsenal 1 2 Watford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          23   56  +32      11.77    96.70    11.65    85.89     5.04    47.10    79.96    93.28    97.76    99.37    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        23   47  +29       3.56    70.09     9.77    76.74     5.10    43.40     8.61    42.07    66.45    83.58    99.30     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          23   47  +26       1.26    56.41     2.63    74.53     5.14    37.46     4.77    23.99    46.96    69.48    98.13     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        23   46  +24       4.93    76.45     7.93    73.57     5.32    35.39     3.02    19.17    39.57    61.89    96.92     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   43  +15       2.08    61.50    -2.72    73.79     5.31    29.85     3.37    18.36    39.23    61.95    97.17     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   41  +12       3.68    70.46     1.51    68.44     5.32    20.44     0.26     3.01     9.47    21.55    83.30     0.00     0.00  
Everton          22   36  +10       2.17    62.43     4.64    61.10     5.41    14.73     0.01     0.11     0.57     2.16    23.58     0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        23   33   +2       3.87    72.30     6.16    51.30     5.18    -1.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.87     0.06R    0.00  
Burnley          23   29   -8       2.62    65.99     0.68    46.24     5.26   -13.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     1.40R    0.06  
Stoke            22   28   -6       1.40    59.26     0.33    46.57     5.34   -11.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     1.34R    0.03  
West_Ham         22   28   -7      -1.47    41.37    -4.77    48.98     5.61    -8.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.33     0.48R    0.02  
Southampton      23   27   -5      -6.33    17.74    -7.48    48.49     5.17    -3.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.42R    0.01  
Watford          23   27  -12       1.87    62.07    -0.93    43.51     5.05   -19.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     4.33R    0.21  
Bournemouth      23   26   -9       0.47    53.56     2.63    41.31     4.98   -19.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     9.09R    0.59  
Middlesbrough    23   21   -7      -5.18    21.91     0.55    36.82     4.97   -13.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.09R    4.88  
Leicester        23   21  -14      -8.97     9.21   -10.90    41.23     5.22   -15.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    10.20R    0.99  
Swansea          23   21  -24      -2.33    37.24    -8.80    36.82     5.07   -32.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.84R    6.32  
Crystal_Palace   23   19   -9      -7.04    14.71     0.35    35.62     4.95   -16.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.93R    7.27  
Sunderland       23   16  -22      -5.82    17.96    -5.14    30.73     4.94   -32.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.68R   35.99  
Hull             22   16  -27      -3.25    31.12    -8.09    30.28     4.94   -40.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.13R   43.64  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 31 January 2017, Barnsley 1 3 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Brighton        27   60  +25      11.58    94.35     8.26    93.87     5.99    36.30    41.52    93.92    99.94    95.91P    0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       27   58  +33       4.20    70.63     6.72    95.16     5.90    50.19    57.61    96.04    99.96    97.59P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         29   55   +5      14.98    96.88     4.85    77.98     5.63     4.65     0.32     3.50    77.81    17.59P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    28   51  +12      10.47    91.05     8.62    75.58     5.86    11.95     0.18     1.92    65.12    15.66P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    27   49   +2      13.83    96.52     4.82    73.71     6.10    -0.04     0.13     1.14    50.02     9.57P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           28   46   +9       0.54    52.68    -1.33    75.68     5.82    16.34     0.14     1.84    67.86    24.76P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       28   46   +5       4.43    71.86     0.09    73.88     5.93     9.81     0.06     0.94    53.81    15.39P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley        29   44   +4       6.28    78.13     7.66    64.69     5.71    -0.62     0.00     0.03     7.31     1.36P    0.13R    0.00  
Norwich         28   43   +7      -2.29    38.79    -3.50    71.87     6.08    13.43     0.03     0.55    42.65    13.58P    0.00R    0.00  
Preston         29   41   +1       1.67    58.82     1.26    64.04     5.63     0.72     0.00     0.01     5.91     1.32P    0.20R    0.00  
Fulham          27   40  +12       1.01    55.29     9.02    67.50     6.19    13.72     0.01     0.10    19.05     4.67P    0.06R    0.00  
Birmingham      29   37   -8       0.10    50.94    -3.92    58.11     5.55   -10.92     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.10P    3.04R    0.01  
Brentford       28   36   +2      -4.10    30.13    -0.25    62.75     5.96     5.17     0.00     0.01     4.80     1.23P    0.60R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     28   36   -2      -1.69    42.03    -1.67    61.01     5.91    -1.31     0.00     0.00     2.24     0.62P    1.15R    0.00  
Cardiff         29   36   -9      -1.47    43.31    -5.36    57.60     5.66   -11.44     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.08P    3.94R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   28   35   -1      -3.11    35.10    -0.51    60.42     5.93     0.14     0.00     0.00     1.97     0.46P    1.51R    0.00  
Ipswich         29   35   -8      -3.42    33.39    -6.43    56.79     5.61   -10.12     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.05P    4.83R    0.01  
Nott'm_Forest   29   33   -7      -4.32    29.68    -3.01    54.62     5.70    -9.57     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   10.15R    0.04  
QPR             28   33  -12      -2.82    36.30    -8.35    54.87     5.71   -16.11     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P   10.39R    0.06  
Bristol_City    28   28   -4      -6.83    19.18     1.85    50.53     5.79    -7.72     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    27.21R    0.53  
Burton_Albion   28   28  -10      -2.10    39.86     1.36    46.82     5.56   -18.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.08R    1.28  
Wigan           27   25   -8      -8.08    14.20    -2.94    48.72     5.99   -11.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.91R    1.06  
Blackburn       27   25  -12      -8.68    12.10    -7.10    48.79     6.00   -15.44     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   41.05R    1.03  
Rotherham       29   16  -36      -8.83    10.32   -10.15    30.94     5.23   -49.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.75R   95.96  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 January 2017, Bolton 1 2 Charlton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Scunthorpe       28   58  +28       9.12    87.97    11.76    88.11     5.92    36.26    58.87    83.52    99.53    88.22P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        29   57  +19       8.63    86.13     5.64    84.35     5.81    24.95    25.99    61.33    97.67    71.32P    0.00     0.00  
Bolton           27   50  +15       5.68    76.34     4.37    80.38     6.15    21.70    10.77    32.17    90.12    48.62P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town   29   50  +13       7.00    81.08     8.10    74.09     5.67    14.31     1.24     5.88    61.62    17.78P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         29   49  +12       3.23    66.13     3.08    74.56     5.63    15.41     1.35     6.92    65.11    22.64P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale         27   45   +5       5.02    73.84     0.67    72.66     6.22     7.35     0.99     4.79    49.66    14.56P    0.01R    0.00  
Southend         28   43   +5       4.78    73.26     5.36    67.42     5.96     4.60     0.07     0.54    19.35     4.14P    0.07R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   29   42   -2       5.60    75.64     4.05    62.86     5.75    -6.35     0.01     0.06     4.89     0.85P    0.60R    0.01  
Peterborough     28   41   +3      -0.45    47.97    -1.46    67.42     5.97     5.51     0.07     0.63    20.08     4.98P    0.08R    0.00  
Millwall         27   40   +2      -1.55    42.06    -4.82    70.84     6.21     9.31     0.42     2.57    39.66    12.50P    0.01R    0.00  
Charlton         27   39   +8      -1.94    40.42     2.01    68.48     6.24    13.09     0.19     1.26    27.91     8.58P    0.04R    0.00  
Walsall          28   38   -2      -2.75    36.57    -5.57    64.16     5.84     0.23     0.01     0.11     8.02     2.03P    0.39R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon    27   37   +5       3.54    68.06    10.36    60.64     6.05     1.36     0.01     0.05     3.47     0.60P    1.64R    0.05  
Oxford_Utd       27   37   +4       0.14    51.24     4.18    63.11     6.19     4.30     0.01     0.12     7.46     1.83P    0.75R    0.01  
MK_Dons          27   34   +1      -6.26    21.61    -3.84    61.11     6.24     2.56     0.00     0.04     4.41     1.15P    1.82R    0.06  
Northampton      29   33   -6      -1.71    42.42     2.58    54.46     5.74    -9.49     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P   13.95R    1.00  
Gillingham       28   32   -9      -4.98    26.39    -6.46    56.48     6.00    -9.48     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.12P    8.87R    0.55  
Port_Vale        27   32  -11      -1.03    45.21    -4.70    54.64     6.01   -16.24     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.05P   15.71R    1.10  
Shrewsbury       29   29  -13      -3.71    32.00    -2.26    48.53     5.61   -18.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.58R    8.64  
Swindon          29   29  -15      -6.65    19.98    -8.53    50.28     5.67   -17.99     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   37.65R    5.42  
Bury             29   27  -12      -5.66    23.63     0.94    47.40     5.69   -17.14     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   55.58R   12.45  
Chesterfield     28   26  -17      -6.37    20.67    -7.82    46.97     5.76   -23.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   61.23R   14.78  
Oldham           28   25  -14      -6.11    20.25    -4.71    44.80     5.58   -20.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.57R   23.94  
Coventry         28   21  -19     -13.14     3.74   -12.95    43.66     5.82   -21.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.45R   31.99  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 31 January 2017, Exeter 4 2 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Doncaster            28   61  +24       8.47    85.94     1.91    94.84     5.97    38.37    83.55    99.06    99.99    99.33P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             27   54  +14       8.20    85.32     1.04    85.66     6.20    22.38    13.46    82.85    98.78    87.07P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             28   49  +11       6.63    79.58     5.24    75.75     6.06    14.05     0.77    24.93    78.13    36.19P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               28   45  +15       2.51    62.28     8.91    73.43     6.06    20.58     0.31    15.74    68.35    28.72P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                28   45  +14       1.64    58.03     6.67    73.30     6.02    19.41     0.29    14.86    67.26    28.30P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           27   45  +13       0.56    52.87     2.07    77.65     6.19    22.72     1.27    38.69    86.87    53.02P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              27   43   +4       3.98    70.00     0.84    70.54     6.20     6.34     0.09     6.76    46.07    15.62P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet               28   41   +0       4.09    69.95     2.53    65.50     6.03    -0.34     0.00     1.17    17.91     4.23P    0.02R    0.00  
Colchester           27   40   +7      -1.68    41.88     0.10    69.63     6.42    12.38     0.13     6.24    43.35    15.87P    0.01R    0.00  
Mansfield            28   40   +1       2.19    61.41     1.46    63.71     5.92    -0.22     0.00     0.55    11.29     2.78P    0.03R    0.01  
Cambridge_Utd        27   39   +5       0.14    50.97     2.28    66.42     6.24     7.03     0.01     2.15    23.77     7.10P    0.01R    0.00  
Grimsby              28   39   +2       2.81    64.23     5.12    61.48     5.97    -1.04     0.00     0.24     6.32     1.31P    0.14R    0.03  
Blackpool            26   36  +11      -6.84    18.99     0.53    69.39     6.45    19.82     0.11     6.58    43.57    18.84P    0.00R    0.00  
Stevenage            28   36   -4      -0.10    49.96    -0.06    59.44     6.00    -6.05     0.00     0.09     3.42     0.75P    0.51R    0.09  
Yeovil               28   35   -5       0.50    53.20     0.09    58.14     5.90    -6.91     0.00     0.03     1.86     0.39P    1.06R    0.21  
Crawley_Town         26   35   -8       4.77    74.45     0.47    57.26     6.21   -15.98     0.00     0.04     1.74     0.25P    1.68R    0.38  
Morecambe            25   31  -11       2.48    63.90    -1.12    54.63     6.45   -20.00     0.00     0.02     0.90     0.13P    5.76R    1.81  
Hartlepool           28   30  -11      -0.80    46.94     1.09    48.45     5.72   -20.88     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    22.96R    8.66  
Crewe                28   29  -13      -5.27    25.70    -7.06    51.35     5.92   -16.29     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   11.48R    3.83  
Cheltenham           28   28  -10      -6.28    21.64    -4.14    50.46     5.95   -13.31     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   13.54R    5.02  
Accrington_Stanley   26   26  -11      -8.26    13.65    -9.04    51.82     6.29   -13.33     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P   10.46R    3.71  
Notts_County         28   26  -21      -3.64    32.66    -6.79    43.81     5.63   -32.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.10R   33.14  
Leyton_Orient        27   25  -13     -10.04     9.25   -10.04    50.20     6.15   -14.24     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P   15.33R    5.89  
Newport_County       27   22  -14      -7.23    16.57    -2.09    42.79     5.95   -22.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.91R   37.23  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 31 January 2017, Solihull_Moors 0 1 Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Lincoln_City       29   61  +29      11.71    93.20    14.13    90.47     5.81    38.56    45.61    98.10    57.01P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       30   57  +25       2.05    59.41     3.48    86.67     5.33    37.34    19.38    94.82    41.51P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere           29   56  +17       5.85    77.15     1.75    87.07     5.56    28.27    18.11    93.91    39.63P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red          29   55  +18       2.93    63.77    -0.68    85.78     5.65    29.74    14.67    90.70    36.35P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     30   52  +15       2.48    61.31     1.93    79.39     5.58    23.72     1.63    59.53    13.40P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             29   49  +17       5.34    74.66    11.28    74.95     5.82    20.92     0.32    27.77     4.88P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot          30   47   +8       5.43    75.14     7.26    69.21     5.50     8.53     0.00     4.98     0.77P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield       28   46  +12       0.97    55.09     2.13    74.24     5.92    17.21     0.28    23.17     5.24P    0.00R    0.00  
Gateshead          30   43  +14      -2.69    37.35     7.47    67.01     5.51    17.30     0.00     2.63     0.48P    0.01R    0.00  
Chester            30   43   +8      -0.08    49.88     5.32    64.78     5.54     7.40     0.00     1.00     0.17P    0.05R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       30   42   +4       2.06    61.08     4.88    63.24     5.39     3.37     0.00     0.41     0.04P    0.07R    0.00  
Wrexham            31   42   -8      -1.14    44.89    -9.11    61.64     5.24    -9.29     0.00     0.16     0.03P    0.32R    0.00  
Eastleigh          29   41   +6      -3.80    31.88    -1.62    66.41     5.81     8.95     0.00     2.48     0.45P    0.04R    0.00  
Bromley            29   41   -4       3.56    67.51     0.05    61.92     5.60    -8.22     0.00     0.26     0.04P    0.34R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     30   37   -6       1.41    57.49     3.05    56.00     5.54   -11.10     0.00     0.02     0.00P    4.78R    0.09  
Sutton_United      28   36   -5       2.84    64.74     2.73    57.09     5.86   -10.36     0.00     0.04     0.01P    4.07R    0.10  
Torquay            30   33   -8      -4.25    30.33    -1.84    53.12     5.44   -11.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.23R    0.46  
Braintree_Town     29   31  -17      -5.77    23.12   -12.52    54.14     5.67   -17.12     0.00     0.00     0.00P   10.44R    0.45  
Woking             30   30  -15      -8.14    16.08    -9.36    50.46     5.46   -18.24     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.90R    1.83  
Southport          30   30  -26      -0.30    49.87    -7.14    45.11     5.17   -37.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.15R   12.58  
Maidstone_United   30   29  -23      -0.01    51.37    -2.58    43.23     5.08   -36.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.61R   20.37  
Guiseley           29   28  -12      -3.42    33.56     1.31    46.50     5.46   -19.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.12R    7.11  
North_Ferriby      31   27  -29       0.07    52.29    -5.99    39.77     4.76   -40.31     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.06R   49.42  
York               30   26  -20     -12.53     5.93   -15.94    46.43     5.49   -22.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.81R    7.59