Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 30 January 2017 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 January 2017, Arsenal 2 1 Burnley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          22   55  +32      11.94    97.42    11.18    86.34     5.26    47.42    73.84    90.27    96.62    98.95    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          22   47  +27       2.83    66.26     3.91    77.61     5.27    41.53    10.07    37.35    63.11    82.57    99.31     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        22   46  +29       4.45    75.34    10.25    78.00     5.29    44.92    10.48    42.01    67.54    85.12    99.46     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        22   45  +24       5.53    79.93     8.15    73.92     5.51    35.38     3.18    15.76    34.50    58.31    96.92     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   43  +15       2.02    61.16    -2.79    73.76     5.30    29.90     2.24    12.69    31.15    56.15    97.07     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   41  +12       3.62    70.19     1.41    68.43     5.30    20.46     0.19     1.86     6.69    17.20    82.86     0.00     0.00  
Everton          22   36  +10       2.21    62.55     4.74    61.09     5.38    14.71     0.00     0.06     0.39     1.68    22.41     0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        22   32   +2       4.22    74.38     6.26    51.48     5.37    -1.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.01     0.05R    0.00  
Stoke            22   28   -6       1.31    58.81     0.25    46.56     5.35   -11.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.80R    0.02  
West_Ham         22   28   -7      -1.42    41.76    -4.70    48.91     5.60    -9.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.35R    0.01  
Southampton      22   27   -4      -4.97    23.06    -6.51    50.18     5.40    -2.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.13R    0.00  
Bournemouth      22   26   -7       1.47    59.55     4.01    43.40     5.24   -15.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.39R    0.13  
Burnley          22   26   -9       1.34    58.98     0.44    44.50     5.48   -14.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.72R    0.13  
Watford          22   24  -13      -0.04    50.82    -2.55    40.53     5.11   -22.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    10.10R    0.90  
Leicester        22   21  -13      -8.08    11.16   -10.51    42.82     5.47   -13.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     5.10R    0.46  
Middlesbrough    22   20   -7      -4.83    23.23     0.59    37.25     5.19   -13.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.09R    3.35  
Swansea          22   18  -25      -3.88    27.52    -9.60    34.87     5.26   -34.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.47R   10.28  
Crystal_Palace   22   16  -11      -8.34     9.85    -0.93    33.36     5.15   -19.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.67R   13.69  
Hull             22   16  -27      -3.31    30.75    -8.11    30.38     4.98   -40.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.18R   36.22  
Sunderland       22   15  -22      -5.89    17.17    -5.50    30.28     5.12   -33.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.94R   34.80  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 January 2017, Norwich 2 0 Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Brighton        27   60  +25      11.63    94.66     8.32    93.83     5.98    36.24    41.75    94.77    99.98    96.62P    0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       27   58  +33       4.14    70.52     6.58    95.06     5.92    50.04    57.68    96.75    99.96    98.07P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         28   52   +4      13.63    95.86     4.29    75.91     5.86     2.93     0.18     2.08    66.60    14.31P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    28   51  +12      10.43    91.35     8.52    75.65     5.88    12.03     0.14     2.11    67.08    16.78P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    27   49   +2      13.78    96.53     4.73    73.75     6.10     0.06     0.11     1.19    52.05    10.32P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       27   45   +5       4.99    74.66     0.36    74.15     6.10     9.67     0.06     1.24    56.72    16.48P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley        28   44   +6       7.23    81.67     8.83    66.62     5.97     2.33     0.00     0.08    14.65     2.88P    0.06R    0.00  
Norwich         28   43   +7      -2.31    38.62    -3.53    71.75     6.11    13.29     0.03     0.62    44.12    14.39P    0.01R    0.00  
Derby           27   43   +6      -0.21    48.66    -3.11    73.47     5.98    12.58     0.05     1.01    53.83    18.80P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         28   41   +3       2.36    62.44     2.30    65.69     5.85     3.13     0.00     0.02    11.49     2.67P    0.08R    0.00  
Fulham          27   40  +12       1.12    56.04     9.23    67.35     6.27    13.48     0.00     0.10    20.19     5.23P    0.06R    0.00  
Birmingham      28   37   -7       1.16    56.62    -3.34    59.89     5.80    -9.33     0.00     0.00     1.54     0.36P    1.76R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     27   36   +1      -1.65    42.03    -0.51    62.75     6.16     2.23     0.00     0.01     5.65     1.52P    0.64R    0.00  
Ipswich         28   35   -5      -2.92    35.83    -4.69    58.69     5.87    -6.32     0.00     0.00     1.11     0.28P    2.68R    0.01  
Brentford       27   33   -1      -4.66    27.30    -1.69    60.87     6.21     1.84     0.00     0.01     3.33     0.90P    1.37R    0.01  
Cardiff         28   33  -11      -2.59    37.72    -6.61    55.88     5.86   -13.47     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.05P    7.42R    0.06  
QPR             28   33  -12      -2.86    36.36    -8.46    54.89     5.74   -16.05     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P    9.98R    0.08  
Wolverhampton   27   32   -3      -4.07    29.77    -1.55    58.15     6.09    -2.79     0.00     0.00     1.11     0.27P    3.68R    0.03  
Nott'm_Forest   28   30   -9      -4.79    27.11    -3.23    53.47     5.90   -10.81     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   14.48R    0.23  
Burton_Albion   28   28  -10      -2.00    40.53     1.49    46.90     5.60   -18.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.30R    1.75  
Bristol_City    27   27   -4      -6.37    20.54     1.91    50.81     5.98    -7.82     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   25.69R    0.73  
Wigan           27   25   -8      -8.48    13.16    -3.49    48.91     6.03   -10.89     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   37.49R    1.42  
Blackburn       27   25  -12      -8.51    12.40    -6.87    48.70     6.04   -15.58     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   40.82R    1.56  
Rotherham       28   16  -34      -8.33    11.15    -9.47    31.85     5.43   -48.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.48R   94.12  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 January 2017, Bolton 1 2 Charlton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Scunthorpe       28   58  +28       9.03    87.65    11.64    88.20     5.96    36.37    58.97    83.68    99.51    88.26P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        29   57  +19       8.48    85.58     5.45    84.43     5.84    25.11    26.05    61.71    97.66    71.63P    0.00     0.00  
Bolton           27   50  +15       5.41    75.32     4.04    80.48     6.15    21.84    10.74    32.48    90.28    49.30P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town   29   50  +13       7.14    81.60     8.32    74.02     5.66    14.18     1.07     5.48    61.25    17.39P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         29   49  +12       3.14    65.61     2.99    74.60     5.66    15.45     1.42     6.93    65.45    22.64P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale         27   45   +5       5.19    74.86     0.92    72.54     6.19     7.13     0.89     4.32    48.86    13.75P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend         28   43   +5       4.88    73.53     5.45    67.39     5.93     4.57     0.06     0.53    19.30     4.15P    0.04R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   29   42   -2       5.42    74.84     3.74    62.96     5.82    -6.20     0.01     0.08     5.21     0.95P    0.65R    0.01  
Peterborough     28   41   +3      -0.44    47.91    -1.46    67.44     6.03     5.56     0.07     0.65    20.74     5.20P    0.06R    0.00  
Millwall         27   40   +2      -1.38    43.15    -4.59    70.72     6.25     9.15     0.48     2.49    38.98    12.26P    0.03R    0.00  
Charlton         27   39   +8      -2.10    39.50     1.79    68.57     6.24    13.19     0.19     1.31    28.47     8.57P    0.08R    0.00  
Walsall          28   38   -2      -2.77    36.45    -5.60    64.21     5.85     0.30     0.02     0.14     8.15     2.18P    0.37R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon    27   37   +5       3.42    67.70    10.18    60.72     6.08     1.44     0.01     0.03     3.57     0.66P    1.81R    0.04  
Oxford_Utd       27   37   +4       0.31    52.07     4.44    62.95     6.14     4.09     0.01     0.13     7.08     1.63P    0.73R    0.02  
MK_Dons          27   34   +1      -6.31    21.27    -3.88    61.15     6.28     2.60     0.00     0.05     4.43     1.23P    1.81R    0.06  
Northampton      29   33   -6      -1.73    42.58     2.57    54.40     5.75    -9.54     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P   14.28R    1.06  
Gillingham       28   32   -9      -5.25    25.24    -6.82    56.60     6.01    -9.25     0.00     0.00     0.61     0.11P    8.35R    0.49  
Port_Vale        27   32  -11      -0.88    45.99    -4.51    54.61     5.98   -16.26     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.04P   15.52R    1.23  
Shrewsbury       29   29  -13      -3.68    32.24    -2.18    48.49     5.59   -18.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.58R    8.68  
Swindon          29   29  -15      -6.52    20.30    -8.37    50.22     5.69   -18.11     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   38.00R    5.41  
Bury             29   27  -12      -5.68    23.48     0.87    47.45     5.72   -17.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.28R   12.51  
Chesterfield     28   26  -17      -6.22    21.12    -7.54    46.87     5.76   -23.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.62R   14.93  
Oldham           28   25  -14      -6.13    20.23    -4.77    44.89     5.56   -20.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.85R   23.04  
Coventry         28   21  -19     -12.96     4.05   -12.68    43.55     5.83   -22.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.96R   32.53  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 January 2017, Carlisle 1 1 Barnet; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Doncaster            28   61  +24       8.32    85.41     1.66    94.88     5.98    38.42    78.51    98.92    99.98    99.23P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             26   54  +15       9.57    89.92     2.08    87.47     6.35    23.97    18.66    86.99    99.24    90.38P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             28   49  +11       6.83    79.86     5.53    75.65     6.06    13.92     0.56    22.10    76.82    33.46P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                27   45  +15       2.85    64.20     7.41    75.50     6.19    21.58     0.71    22.98    77.83    37.42P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           27   45  +13       0.65    53.11     2.08    77.74     6.17    22.82     1.11    35.87    86.58    51.12P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              26   43   +6       4.61    73.09     1.77    72.22     6.35     8.80     0.16     9.84    55.82    20.48P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               27   42  +13       1.70    58.80     8.11    71.43     6.26    18.00     0.15     8.92    54.19    19.81P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet               28   41   +0       3.92    69.04     2.25    65.60     6.04    -0.24     0.00     1.00    17.64     3.95P    0.02R    0.00  
Colchester           27   40   +7      -1.67    41.80     0.11    69.52     6.42    12.19     0.05     5.36    41.36    14.47P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            28   40   +1       2.22    61.74     1.49    63.68     5.92    -0.23     0.00     0.47    10.70     2.46P    0.04R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        27   39   +5       0.08    50.63     2.22    66.52     6.24     7.17     0.01     1.72    23.65     6.61P    0.01R    0.00  
Grimsby              28   39   +2       2.77    63.89     5.01    61.46     5.96    -1.03     0.00     0.19     5.99     1.29P    0.11R    0.01  
Blackpool            26   36  +11      -7.00    18.28     0.28    69.46     6.42    19.92     0.07     5.51    43.35    18.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Stevenage            28   36   -4      -0.17    49.70    -0.16    59.35     6.01    -6.19     0.00     0.06     3.10     0.64P    0.52R    0.08  
Crawley_Town         26   35   -8       4.88    74.68     0.63    57.15     6.19   -16.13     0.00     0.04     1.69     0.28P    1.58R    0.36  
Yeovil               27   32   -6      -0.84    46.33    -0.52    55.88     6.05    -8.75     0.00     0.01     0.82     0.16P    2.32R    0.63  
Morecambe            25   31  -11       2.35    63.10    -1.38    54.68     6.46   -19.82     0.00     0.01     0.83     0.14P    5.00R    1.51  
Hartlepool           28   30  -11      -0.80    46.77     1.07    48.47     5.72   -20.75     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   21.00R    7.88  
Crewe                28   29  -13      -5.11    26.05    -6.88    51.38     5.95   -16.24     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   10.18R    3.58  
Accrington_Stanley   26   26  -11      -8.30    13.51    -9.17    51.85     6.31   -13.26     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.05P    9.59R    3.51  
Notts_County         28   26  -21      -3.70    32.25    -6.95    43.84     5.62   -32.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.10R   30.92  
Cheltenham           27   25  -11      -7.68    15.85    -4.91    47.96     6.09   -15.38     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   23.30R   10.11  
Leyton_Orient        27   25  -13      -9.96     9.70    -9.88    50.12     6.16   -14.33     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P   14.46R    5.64  
Newport_County       27   22  -14      -7.06    17.14    -1.83    42.75     5.94   -22.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   57.76R   35.75  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 January 2017, Aldershot 0 0 York; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Lincoln_City       28   58  +28      10.54    91.18    13.82    89.03     6.01    37.83    40.73    96.85    52.71P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       30   57  +25       1.91    58.59     3.26    86.75     5.35    37.47    24.06    95.25    45.57P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red          29   55  +18       2.94    63.62    -0.68    85.72     5.73    29.61    17.74    90.89    38.88P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere           28   53  +14       5.26    75.24     0.27    85.32     5.81    25.06    14.50    89.12    35.18P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     30   52  +15       2.46    61.79     1.88    79.43     5.58    23.77     2.12    61.60    14.42P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             29   49  +17       5.46    75.33    11.48    74.80     5.82    20.75     0.39    28.55     5.15P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot          30   47   +8       5.29    74.69     7.11    69.32     5.49     8.70     0.03     5.56     0.89P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield       28   46  +12       0.88    54.38     2.02    74.20     5.90    17.17     0.41    24.20     5.65P    0.00R    0.00  
Gateshead          30   43  +14      -2.67    37.34     7.56    67.01     5.54    17.27     0.00     3.11     0.62P    0.02R    0.00  
Chester            30   43   +8      -0.02    50.12     5.43    64.70     5.58     7.25     0.00     1.20     0.17P    0.05R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       30   42   +4       2.09    60.99     4.94    63.21     5.37     3.32     0.00     0.36     0.06P    0.12R    0.00  
Wrexham            31   42   -8      -1.06    45.32    -8.93    61.62     5.21    -9.34     0.00     0.13     0.03P    0.30R    0.00  
Eastleigh          29   41   +6      -3.61    32.61    -1.27    66.38     5.85     8.89     0.00     2.73     0.62P    0.03R    0.00  
Bromley            29   41   -4       3.45    66.86    -0.15    62.04     5.57    -8.05     0.00     0.34     0.03P    0.35R    0.00  
Solihull_Moors     29   37   -5       2.11    60.78     3.03    57.30     5.75   -10.27     0.00     0.05     0.00P    3.53R    0.06  
Sutton_United      28   36   -5       3.03    65.78     3.10    56.96     5.83   -10.51     0.00     0.05     0.01P    4.48R    0.08  
Torquay            30   33   -8      -4.08    30.97    -1.55    53.09     5.42   -11.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.07R    0.41  
Braintree_Town     29   31  -17      -5.49    24.34   -12.08    54.03     5.66   -17.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.33R    0.50  
Woking             29   30  -12      -7.91    16.46    -8.30    52.01     5.66   -14.90     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.15R    1.10  
Southport          30   30  -26      -0.49    48.95    -7.52    45.16     5.17   -37.66     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.49R   12.23  
Maidstone_United   30   29  -23       0.05    51.68    -2.48    43.23     5.09   -36.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.99R   20.61  
Guiseley           29   28  -12      -3.55    32.82     1.12    46.59     5.46   -19.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.04R    7.05  
North_Ferriby      31   27  -29       0.13    52.49    -5.85    39.73     4.74   -40.38     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.68R   50.63  
York               30   26  -20     -12.70     5.68   -16.21    46.50     5.48   -22.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.38R    7.32