Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 24 January 2017 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 January 2017, Arsenal 2 1 Burnley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          22   55  +32      12.12    97.57    11.51    86.24     5.29    47.18    73.07    89.95    96.28    98.94    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          22   47  +27       2.95    66.84     4.06    77.52     5.24    41.35     9.86    36.84    62.99    82.14    99.30     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        22   46  +29       4.26    74.23     9.90    78.10     5.31    45.11    11.09    43.03    68.26    85.41    99.46     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        22   45  +24       5.48    79.55     8.11    73.92     5.55    35.34     3.46    15.86    34.71    58.56    96.82     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   43  +15       2.06    61.42    -2.82    73.75     5.29    29.80     2.29    12.40    30.64    55.90    97.03     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   41  +12       3.65    70.41     1.45    68.39     5.32    20.40     0.22     1.85     6.73    17.40    82.71     0.00     0.00  
Everton          22   36  +10       2.32    63.23     4.89    61.05     5.39    14.64     0.00     0.07     0.40     1.63    22.61     0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        22   32   +2       4.24    74.54     6.29    51.45     5.38    -1.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.01     0.04R    0.00  
Stoke            22   28   -6       1.21    58.02     0.09    46.59     5.36   -11.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.82R    0.02  
West_Ham         22   28   -7      -1.41    42.07    -4.71    48.99     5.63    -8.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.37R    0.01  
Southampton      22   27   -4      -5.09    22.58    -6.68    50.26     5.44    -2.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.14R    0.00  
Bournemouth      22   26   -7       1.49    59.70     4.07    43.31     5.22   -15.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.50R    0.17  
Burnley          22   26   -9       1.40    59.48     0.54    44.41     5.50   -14.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.83R    0.12  
Watford          22   24  -13       0.01    50.75    -2.50    40.52     5.12   -22.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.29R    0.91  
Leicester        22   21  -13      -7.98    11.45   -10.39    42.79     5.44   -13.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     4.93R    0.37  
Middlesbrough    22   20   -7      -5.00    22.47     0.39    37.37     5.22   -13.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.31R    3.33  
Swansea          22   18  -25      -3.90    27.38    -9.59    34.85     5.29   -34.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.89R   10.88  
Crystal_Palace   22   16  -11      -8.36     9.58    -0.93    33.38     5.13   -19.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.78R   13.24  
Hull             22   16  -27      -3.28    31.17    -8.09    30.39     4.98   -40.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.16R   36.36  
Sunderland       22   15  -22      -5.96    16.85    -5.61    30.32     5.08   -33.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.94R   34.59  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 24 January 2017, Brighton 1 0 Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Brighton        27   60  +25      11.53    94.38     8.15    93.96     6.01    36.50    41.83    95.75    99.98    97.25P    0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       27   58  +33       4.17    70.40     6.59    95.15     5.91    50.21    57.69    97.11    99.98    98.29P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         27   49   +3      12.43    94.58     3.90    74.56     6.08     2.33     0.13     1.59    60.77    12.92P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    27   49   +2      13.81    96.55     4.84    73.71     6.13    -0.02     0.09     1.24    54.56    10.87P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    27   48  +10       9.69    89.88     7.80    74.06     6.05    10.07     0.09     1.40    59.65    14.37P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       27   45   +5       4.86    74.20     0.20    74.26     6.11     9.85     0.08     1.23    60.88    18.17P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           27   43   +6      -0.20    48.80    -3.07    73.41     5.97    12.46     0.06     0.99    56.79    19.38P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnsley        27   41   +5       6.04    78.18     8.63    65.01     6.17     1.27     0.01     0.06    11.98     2.23P    0.21R    0.00  
Fulham          27   40  +12       0.91    54.88     8.89    67.51     6.21    13.78     0.01     0.12    23.11     5.69P    0.04R    0.00  
Norwich         27   40   +5      -2.96    35.61    -4.04    70.36     6.34    11.68     0.02     0.45    38.30    12.40P    0.02R    0.00  
Preston         27   40   +3       2.81    65.05     2.47    66.43     6.02     3.70     0.00     0.04    16.20     3.86P    0.08R    0.00  
Birmingham      27   37   -5       1.62    59.01    -2.75    61.10     5.97    -7.71     0.00     0.00     3.24     0.66P    1.10R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     27   36   +1      -1.64    41.81    -0.55    62.70     6.13     2.20     0.00     0.01     6.34     1.78P    0.55R    0.00  
Ipswich         27   34   -5      -2.81    35.91    -5.04    58.69     6.04    -6.79     0.00     0.00     1.57     0.40P    2.77R    0.02  
Brentford       27   33   -1      -4.69    27.23    -1.73    60.85     6.17     1.74     0.00     0.00     3.68     0.97P    1.28R    0.01  
Cardiff         27   33  -10      -1.57    42.35    -6.17    56.96     6.05   -12.96     0.00     0.00     0.73     0.15P    5.38R    0.06  
QPR             27   33  -11      -1.43    42.99    -7.44    56.93     5.92   -14.10     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.15P    5.53R    0.07  
Wolverhampton   27   32   -3      -4.30    28.86    -1.88    58.32     6.05    -2.57     0.00     0.00     1.29     0.34P    3.24R    0.07  
Nott'm_Forest   27   30   -7      -4.29    29.01    -2.51    54.79     6.07    -8.88     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.11P    9.90R    0.21  
Bristol_City    27   27   -4      -6.20    21.08     2.15    50.73     5.98    -7.97     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   24.78R    0.98  
Wigan           27   25   -8      -8.30    13.66    -3.22    48.75     6.00   -11.08     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   37.64R    1.80  
Burton_Albion   27   25  -11      -3.51    32.55     0.72    44.40     5.73   -20.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.79R    6.12  
Blackburn       27   25  -12      -8.51    12.61    -6.90    48.78     6.03   -15.47     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   38.69R    2.13  
Rotherham       27   16  -33      -7.37    13.92    -9.04    33.12     5.66   -47.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.99R   88.54  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 24 January 2017, Oldham 2 0 Peterborough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Sheff_Utd        29   57  +19       8.51    85.84     5.50    84.40     5.79    25.08    25.73    57.78    97.74    68.55P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       27   55  +27       8.27    86.08    11.98    87.39     6.09    36.57    51.83    78.03    99.22    84.21P    0.00     0.00  
Bolton           26   50  +16       6.71    81.11     4.90    82.55     6.31    23.89    18.23    43.58    94.39    58.29P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town   28   49  +13       7.51    83.34     8.28    74.95     5.88    15.01     1.71     7.32    66.83    20.31P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         28   46  +11       2.01    60.17     2.67    72.75     5.81    14.23     0.73     3.87    53.17    16.99P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale         27   45   +5       5.19    74.83     0.88    72.59     6.16     7.25     0.85     4.04    49.35    13.82P    0.01R    0.00  
Southend         27   42   +5       4.87    74.07     4.96    67.27     6.11     3.85     0.10     0.54    19.17     4.09P    0.07R    0.00  
Peterborough     27   41   +7      -0.08    49.54     0.92    69.98     6.16    11.37     0.28     1.81    35.86    10.25P    0.03R    0.00  
Millwall         27   40   +2      -1.39    42.78    -4.59    70.72     6.19     9.13     0.41     2.09    39.14    12.06P    0.02R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   28   39   -3       4.41    71.21     3.80    61.28     6.01    -7.44     0.01     0.04     3.50     0.63P    2.05R    0.08  
AFC_Wimbledon    27   37   +5       3.46    67.83    10.22    60.78     6.03     1.50     0.00     0.05     3.63     0.66P    1.85R    0.06  
Oxford_Utd       27   37   +4       0.24    51.58     4.32    63.16     6.14     4.45     0.01     0.09     7.62     1.82P    0.83R    0.02  
Walsall          27   37   -2      -2.34    38.34    -5.57    64.47     6.06     0.23     0.02     0.16     9.25     2.30P    0.50R    0.01  
Charlton         26   36   +7      -3.48    32.53     1.18    66.16     6.42    11.12     0.09     0.59    17.90     5.31P    0.31R    0.01  
Port_Vale        26   32  -10      -0.42    48.46    -5.12    55.40     6.12   -16.20     0.00     0.01     0.46     0.10P   14.50R    1.20  
MK_Dons          26   31   -3      -6.42    20.28    -5.55    57.68     6.40    -4.15     0.00     0.01     1.54     0.34P    7.23R    0.51  
Gillingham       27   31   -9      -4.61    27.35    -6.35    57.70     6.19    -8.13     0.00     0.00     1.09     0.25P    7.53R    0.50  
Northampton      28   30   -9      -2.22    39.63     1.35    52.44     5.94   -13.14     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.00P   26.27R    3.52  
Swindon          28   29  -14      -5.76    22.87    -8.23    51.64     5.87   -17.13     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   31.34R    4.82  
Shrewsbury       28   28  -13      -3.45    33.13    -2.44    48.25     5.73   -19.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.93R   12.21  
Bury             28   26  -12      -5.39    24.63     0.54    47.98     5.92   -16.75     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P   53.78R   13.63  
Chesterfield     28   26  -17      -6.31    20.62    -7.71    46.81     5.71   -23.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.23R   18.20  
Oldham           27   25  -13      -5.35    22.85    -4.54    46.30     5.72   -18.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.94R   19.86  
Coventry         27   21  -16     -12.70     3.74   -11.40    45.40     6.03   -18.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   69.60R   25.35  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 January 2017, Accrington_Stanley 1 1 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Doncaster            27   58  +21       8.14    85.04     0.98    93.01     6.26    34.93    69.57    97.22    99.95    98.05P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             26   54  +15       9.62    89.79     2.16    87.35     6.39    23.84    24.00    85.55    99.23    89.12P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             27   48  +11       7.14    81.58     5.43    76.57     6.29    14.75     1.42    25.65    80.59    37.40P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           26   45  +14       1.65    58.28     2.56    79.76     6.37    24.79     3.73    47.90    91.56    61.34P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              26   43   +6       4.61    73.35     1.78    72.20     6.38     8.80     0.28     9.12    56.17    19.91P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                26   42  +13       1.96    59.97     6.45    73.71     6.42    19.37     0.58    14.33    68.17    28.45P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester           27   40   +7      -1.70    41.71     0.06    69.40     6.41    12.04     0.10     4.67    41.29    14.08P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet               27   40   +0       4.32    71.37     2.27    65.50     6.27    -1.00     0.01     1.10    18.63     4.30P    0.03R    0.00  
Exeter               26   39  +12       0.18    51.12     7.30    69.34     6.41    16.31     0.13     5.02    41.56    13.85P    0.00R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        26   39   +7       0.70    53.88     3.03    68.01     6.47     9.41     0.07     3.23    32.77     9.97P    0.00R    0.00  
Grimsby              27   39   +4       3.34    66.83     5.85    63.22     6.17     1.54     0.01     0.50    10.79     2.47P    0.05R    0.00  
Mansfield            27   37   -1       1.23    57.05     0.40    61.82     6.09    -2.53     0.00     0.20     6.86     1.54P    0.13R    0.01  
Blackpool            26   36  +11      -6.87    18.74     0.45    69.42     6.49    19.86     0.12     5.36    43.85    17.91P    0.01R    0.00  
Crawley_Town         25   35   -7       6.07    80.14     1.28    58.75     6.39   -14.78     0.00     0.09     3.19     0.53P    0.92R    0.14  
Stevenage            27   33   -6      -1.18    44.75    -1.15    57.45     6.23    -8.67     0.00     0.02     1.94     0.42P    1.21R    0.20  
Yeovil               26   32   -3      -0.69    46.77     0.70    57.34     6.25    -5.64     0.00     0.02     1.80     0.36P    1.25R    0.25  
Morecambe            25   31  -11       2.45    63.84    -1.24    54.80     6.45   -19.63     0.00     0.01     0.96     0.14P    4.23R    1.05  
Hartlepool           27   30   -9      -0.10    50.48     1.92    50.14     5.95   -18.26     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   12.73R    3.85  
Crewe                27   28  -13      -4.88    26.80    -6.98    51.86     6.19   -16.17     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P    8.80R    2.54  
Accrington_Stanley   26   26  -11      -8.24    13.75    -9.01    51.79     6.30   -13.36     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.05P    8.58R    2.56  
Leyton_Orient        26   25  -11      -9.34    10.71    -9.02    51.84     6.39   -11.80     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.06P    8.80R    2.69  
Cheltenham           26   24  -11      -7.40    16.53    -4.86    48.28     6.34   -15.61     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   20.62R    7.38  
Notts_County         27   23  -22      -5.11    25.21    -7.56    42.17     5.86   -33.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.53R   35.19  
Newport_County       26   19  -16      -7.98    12.98    -2.80    40.65     6.11   -24.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.11R   44.13  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 24 January 2017, Barrow 3 0 Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Lincoln_City       28   58  +28      10.49    91.15    13.71    89.05     6.04    37.92    42.23    96.79    54.67P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       29   54  +24       0.65    52.61     2.91    85.07     5.61    36.32    17.76    91.07    39.98P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere           27   53  +16       6.32    79.72     1.79    87.21     6.00    27.88    25.97    93.25    45.36P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red          28   52  +16       1.88    58.83    -1.70    83.36     5.97    26.56    11.02    82.05    30.88P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             28   49  +18       6.45    79.46    11.85    76.35     6.02    21.99     1.16    39.97     7.86P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     29   49  +13       1.77    58.39     1.44    78.01     5.79    22.09     1.52    51.90    12.04P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot          29   46   +8       5.90    77.49     7.48    70.10     5.71     9.25     0.04     8.14     1.37P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          29   43  +16      -1.78    41.17     8.76    68.83     5.78    19.95     0.03     6.84     1.42P    0.00R    0.00  
Chester            29   43  +10       0.48    52.35     5.99    65.87     5.80     8.87     0.01     2.62     0.36P    0.02R    0.00  
Macclesfield       27   43  +10       0.28    51.63     1.46    72.75     6.09    15.39     0.25    19.23     4.42P    0.00R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       29   42   +5       2.94    65.02     5.29    64.60     5.59     4.41     0.00     1.08     0.19P    0.06R    0.00  
Eastleigh          28   41   +7      -2.32    38.43    -0.51    68.66     6.03    11.29     0.02     6.63     1.39P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham            30   39   -9      -2.16    39.79    -9.24    59.99     5.42   -10.31     0.00     0.10     0.02P    0.79R    0.00  
Bromley            28   38   -6       2.78    64.09    -0.78    60.68     5.80    -9.59     0.00     0.25     0.04P    0.93R    0.01  
Sutton_United      28   36   -5       2.91    65.29     2.93    56.90     5.83   -10.59     0.00     0.05     0.00P    4.43R    0.15  
Solihull_Moors     28   34   -7       1.45    57.99     2.69    55.87     5.94   -12.03     0.00     0.03     0.01P    6.57R    0.30  
Braintree_Town     29   31  -17      -5.78    23.02   -12.59    54.16     5.64   -17.09     0.00     0.01     0.00    10.50R    0.58  
Torquay            29   30  -10      -5.19    25.77    -2.84    50.98     5.62   -13.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.92R    1.92  
Southport          29   30  -24       0.07    51.57    -6.97    46.32     5.40   -36.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.34R   11.38  
Maidstone_United   29   29  -21       0.19    52.29    -2.42    44.50     5.37   -34.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.23R   17.95  
Guiseley           29   28  -12      -3.62    32.42     1.05    46.60     5.46   -19.22     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.23R    8.56  
Woking             28   27  -13      -9.40    11.69    -9.00    49.50     5.86   -17.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.93R    4.25  
North_Ferriby      30   27  -27       0.61    55.09    -5.19    40.89     4.98   -38.60     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.05R   44.47  
York               29   25  -20     -12.34     5.95   -16.10    46.37     5.72   -23.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.98R   10.43