Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 23 January 2017 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 January 2017, Arsenal 2 1 Burnley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          22   55  +32      12.12    97.54    11.46    86.21     5.30    47.16    72.86    89.92    96.20    98.85    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          22   47  +27       2.94    66.86     4.11    77.53     5.25    41.32     9.74    36.45    62.50    82.00    99.32     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        22   46  +29       4.34    74.58    10.02    78.11     5.31    45.11    11.26    43.00    68.44    85.53    99.45     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        22   45  +24       5.52    79.90     8.18    73.92     5.56    35.37     3.48    15.87    34.62    58.48    96.86     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   43  +15       1.96    60.99    -2.96    73.79     5.32    29.96     2.46    12.74    31.20    56.34    97.08     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   41  +12       3.58    69.99     1.36    68.42     5.29    20.47     0.18     1.95     6.65    17.21    83.09     0.00     0.00  
Everton          22   36  +10       2.28    63.08     4.87    61.02     5.37    14.57     0.01     0.07     0.39     1.56    22.17     0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        22   32   +2       4.27    74.75     6.36    51.42     5.39    -1.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.01     0.04R    0.00  
Stoke            22   28   -6       1.25    58.36     0.14    46.54     5.38   -11.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.80R    0.02  
West_Ham         22   28   -7      -1.52    41.18    -4.79    48.99     5.61    -8.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.30R    0.01  
Southampton      22   27   -4      -5.12    22.20    -6.71    50.25     5.44    -2.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.53     0.16R    0.00  
Bournemouth      22   26   -7       1.47    59.68     4.02    43.43     5.27   -15.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.58R    0.15  
Burnley          22   26   -9       1.32    59.25     0.36    44.57     5.47   -14.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.50R    0.12  
Watford          22   24  -13       0.14    52.11    -2.27    40.45     5.12   -23.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.54R    0.97  
Leicester        22   21  -13      -7.97    11.66   -10.36    42.74     5.50   -13.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     5.34R    0.45  
Middlesbrough    22   20   -7      -4.96    22.63     0.42    37.31     5.25   -13.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.88R    3.44  
Swansea          22   18  -25      -3.91    27.37    -9.56    34.84     5.25   -34.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.52R   10.51  
Crystal_Palace   22   16  -11      -8.45     9.30    -1.14    33.44     5.15   -19.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.95R   13.16  
Hull             22   16  -27      -3.19    31.62    -8.02    30.37     4.97   -40.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.38R   36.41  
Sunderland       22   15  -22      -5.88    17.11    -5.48    30.27     5.06   -33.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.01R   34.74  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 January 2017, Aston_Villa 2 2 Preston; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Newcastle       27   58  +33       4.20    70.93     6.70    95.12     5.90    50.08    60.64    97.26    99.98    98.45P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        26   57  +24      10.50    92.74     7.91    93.10     6.18    36.63    38.78    94.18    99.92    96.21P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    27   49   +2      13.75    96.47     4.73    73.85     6.17     0.17     0.11     1.54    55.91    10.97P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    27   48  +10       9.62    89.69     7.73    74.09     6.08    10.09     0.14     1.77    59.78    14.27P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         26   46   +2      11.25    93.16     3.65    72.99     6.28     1.40     0.09     1.28    50.60    10.63P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       27   45   +5       4.91    74.36     0.22    74.21     6.14     9.77     0.09     1.61    60.77    18.17P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           27   43   +6      -0.25    48.48    -3.17    73.42     6.01    12.53     0.08     1.27    57.01    20.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnsley        27   41   +5       5.98    77.95     8.57    65.09     6.22     1.35     0.00     0.07    12.47     2.58P    0.24R    0.00  
Fulham          26   40  +13       2.03    60.53     9.49    68.80     6.41    14.61     0.03     0.32    30.07     7.50P    0.04R    0.00  
Norwich         27   40   +5      -2.86    36.00    -3.92    70.33     6.31    11.60     0.03     0.59    38.18    12.31P    0.02R    0.00  
Preston         27   40   +3       2.88    65.13     2.54    66.34     6.08     3.54     0.00     0.07    16.54     4.12P    0.08R    0.00  
Birmingham      27   37   -5       1.70    59.25    -2.64    61.04     5.97    -7.83     0.00     0.01     3.23     0.66P    1.10R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     27   36   +1      -1.65    41.89    -0.49    62.74     6.14     2.22     0.00     0.02     6.64     1.82P    0.58R    0.00  
Ipswich         27   34   -5      -2.81    35.94    -5.01    58.69     6.04    -6.79     0.00     0.00     1.45     0.35P    2.81R    0.03  
Brentford       27   33   -1      -4.63    27.50    -1.61    60.81     6.19     1.68     0.00     0.00     3.76     1.02P    1.25R    0.00  
Cardiff         26   33   -9      -0.88    45.96    -6.16    57.60     6.19   -13.08     0.00     0.00     1.21     0.28P    4.48R    0.07  
QPR             27   33  -11      -1.59    42.34    -7.65    56.97     5.88   -13.96     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.16P    5.33R    0.07  
Wolverhampton   27   32   -3      -4.25    29.33    -1.79    58.28     6.13    -2.65     0.00     0.00     1.48     0.38P    3.43R    0.02  
Nott'm_Forest   27   30   -7      -4.24    29.29    -2.45    54.82     6.09    -8.83     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.09P    9.87R    0.19  
Bristol_City    27   27   -4      -6.52    19.99     1.74    50.84     6.01    -7.70     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   24.56R    0.90  
Wigan           27   25   -8      -8.35    13.47    -3.29    48.74     6.01   -11.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   37.77R    1.88  
Burton_Albion   27   25  -11      -3.39    33.06     0.87    44.40     5.74   -20.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.05R    6.16  
Blackburn       27   25  -12      -8.61    12.40    -6.98    48.79     6.08   -15.43     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   39.46R    2.06  
Rotherham       27   16  -33      -7.40    13.78    -8.98    33.11     5.69   -47.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.92R   88.60  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 January 2017, Bradford 1 1 Millwall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Sheff_Utd        28   57  +21       9.51    89.21     6.82    86.68     6.02    28.42    36.52    69.68    98.88    77.58P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       27   55  +27       8.23    85.99    11.95    87.39     6.12    36.60    45.24    75.28    99.20    82.41P    0.00     0.00  
Bolton           26   50  +16       6.86    81.51     5.14    82.46     6.37    23.70    15.15    38.77    94.02    54.69P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town   27   46  +11       6.29    79.50     6.83    72.38     6.06    11.59     0.67     3.28    49.92    13.12P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         28   46  +11       1.86    59.58     2.48    72.89     5.78    14.40     0.60     3.23    54.13    16.73P    0.00R    0.00  
Rochdale         27   45   +5       5.05    74.48     0.70    72.63     6.19     7.31     0.69     3.49    49.86    13.42P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend         27   42   +5       4.82    73.85     4.81    67.41     6.10     3.99     0.07     0.46    19.93     4.18P    0.08R    0.00  
Peterborough     26   41   +9       0.68    53.60     1.86    72.09     6.39    14.55     0.69     3.28    49.54    15.13P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall         27   40   +2      -1.32    43.17    -4.51    70.67     6.21     9.04     0.28     1.76    39.26    11.61P    0.02R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   28   39   -3       4.33    71.05     3.71    61.25     5.96    -7.47     0.00     0.03     3.35     0.54P    1.75R    0.05  
AFC_Wimbledon    27   37   +5       3.38    67.30    10.19    60.81     6.10     1.54     0.01     0.03     3.68     0.68P    1.79R    0.04  
Oxford_Utd       27   37   +4       0.25    51.64     4.31    63.21     6.17     4.47     0.01     0.10     7.76     1.75P    0.76R    0.01  
Walsall          27   37   -2      -2.29    38.41    -5.49    64.50     6.04     0.26     0.01     0.11     9.62     2.41P    0.49R    0.01  
Charlton         26   36   +7      -3.33    33.20     1.39    66.04     6.38    10.93     0.05     0.47    17.48     4.95P    0.28R    0.00  
Port_Vale        26   32  -10      -0.44    48.20    -5.04    55.31     6.17   -16.30     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.08P   14.14R    1.07  
MK_Dons          26   31   -3      -6.60    19.78    -5.82    57.75     6.46    -4.08     0.00     0.01     1.65     0.44P    6.81R    0.49  
Gillingham       27   31   -9      -4.48    28.49    -6.16    57.58     6.23    -8.32     0.00     0.01     1.07     0.23P    7.32R    0.51  
Northampton      28   30   -9      -2.14    40.01     1.59    52.48     5.99   -13.11     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   24.60R    3.05  
Swindon          28   29  -14      -5.58    23.48    -7.88    51.52     5.86   -17.28     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   30.78R    3.97  
Shrewsbury       28   28  -13      -3.68    31.94    -2.73    48.33     5.76   -19.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.47R    9.92  
Bury             28   26  -12      -5.30    24.68     0.77    48.07     5.91   -16.59     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   51.52R   11.32  
Chesterfield     28   26  -17      -6.28    20.88    -7.69    46.78     5.74   -23.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.85R   16.10  
Oldham           26   22  -15      -6.39    17.73    -5.66    43.93     5.92   -21.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.56R   31.77  
Coventry         27   21  -16     -12.83     3.62   -11.58    45.43     6.06   -18.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.75R   21.69  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 January 2017, Accrington_Stanley 1 1 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Doncaster            27   58  +21       8.30    85.35     1.25    92.92     6.25    34.79    69.34    97.38    99.95    98.13P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             26   54  +15       9.39    89.12     1.81    87.50     6.35    24.05    24.46    86.57    99.26    90.10P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             27   48  +11       7.41    82.30     5.84    76.38     6.31    14.46     1.46    24.76    79.83    36.21P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           26   45  +14       1.72    58.66     2.68    79.61     6.38    24.62     3.52    47.29    91.17    60.78P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              26   43   +6       4.58    73.00     1.71    72.23     6.38     8.80     0.24     9.20    56.55    20.18P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                26   42  +13       1.94    60.05     6.46    73.69     6.43    19.30     0.54    14.60    67.89    28.71P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester           27   40   +7      -1.63    41.90     0.15    69.40     6.45    12.00     0.12     4.77    41.01    14.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet               27   40   +0       4.37    71.50     2.31    65.55     6.28    -0.94     0.01     1.14    18.70     4.32P    0.03R    0.00  
Exeter               26   39  +12       0.08    50.69     7.14    69.40     6.42    16.44     0.10     4.96    42.31    13.86P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        26   39   +7       0.71    53.89     3.07    68.03     6.47     9.43     0.07     3.22    33.00    10.21P    0.01R    0.00  
Grimsby              27   39   +4       3.01    65.16     5.38    63.43     6.25     1.82     0.01     0.53    11.62     2.76P    0.04R    0.01  
Mansfield            27   37   -1       1.20    56.79     0.36    61.78     6.11    -2.56     0.00     0.21     6.88     1.61P    0.12R    0.02  
Blackpool            26   36  +11      -6.79    18.78     0.60    69.36     6.46    19.75     0.12     5.19    43.06    17.43P    0.00R    0.00  
Crawley_Town         25   35   -7       5.93    79.47     1.10    58.80     6.43   -14.68     0.00     0.09     3.22     0.60P    0.89R    0.17  
Stevenage            27   33   -6      -1.16    44.66    -1.09    57.39     6.20    -8.75     0.00     0.03     1.93     0.36P    1.17R    0.20  
Yeovil               26   32   -3      -0.58    47.62     0.88    57.27     6.30    -5.73     0.00     0.03     1.88     0.42P    1.25R    0.28  
Morecambe            25   31  -11       2.38    63.44    -1.35    54.82     6.52   -19.61     0.00     0.01     0.95     0.14P    4.32R    1.12  
Hartlepool           27   30   -9      -0.01    51.13     2.07    50.09     5.90   -18.30     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P   12.91R    3.86  
Crewe                27   28  -13      -4.88    27.01    -7.00    51.88     6.19   -16.13     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    8.75R    2.57  
Accrington_Stanley   26   26  -11      -8.27    13.66    -9.08    51.83     6.33   -13.30     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.06P    8.38R    2.47  
Leyton_Orient        26   25  -11      -9.40    10.42    -9.15    51.93     6.39   -11.67     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.05P    8.53R    2.56  
Cheltenham           26   24  -11      -7.32    16.91    -4.79    48.27     6.37   -15.59     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   21.01R    7.54  
Notts_County         27   23  -22      -5.02    25.49    -7.41    42.10     5.88   -33.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.18R   35.87  
Newport_County       26   19  -16      -8.06    13.23    -2.94    40.73     6.11   -24.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.42R   43.35  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 January 2017, Boreham_Wood 0 0 Solihull_Moors; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Lincoln_City       27   58  +31      10.91    92.54    15.14    91.09     6.24    41.99    52.92    98.31    63.50P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       29   54  +24       0.74    52.99     3.10    85.08     5.59    36.32    13.90    91.88    37.35P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere           27   53  +16       6.09    79.43     1.52    87.46     5.99    28.15    22.45    94.42    43.30P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red          28   52  +16       1.87    58.66    -1.76    83.35     5.94    26.55     8.82    83.58    29.26P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     29   49  +13       1.68    57.99     1.25    78.09     5.81    22.23     1.16    54.87    11.94P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             27   46  +15       5.75    77.43    10.33    74.12     6.21    18.03     0.44    27.88     4.96P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot          29   46   +8       5.86    77.27     7.37    70.09     5.75     9.24     0.03     9.04     1.39P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          29   43  +16      -1.74    41.46     8.80    68.75     5.79    19.83     0.03     7.33     1.43P    0.00R    0.00  
Chester            29   43  +10       0.44    52.44     5.92    65.93     5.77     9.01     0.00     2.73     0.43P    0.03R    0.00  
Macclesfield       27   43  +10       0.32    51.52     1.50    72.76     6.17    15.38     0.21    20.96     4.69P    0.00R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       29   42   +5       3.18    66.50     5.59    64.38     5.57     4.13     0.00     1.15     0.18P    0.06R    0.00  
Eastleigh          28   41   +7      -2.54    37.43    -0.81    68.76     6.06    11.41     0.04     7.36     1.53P    0.02R    0.00  
Wrexham            30   39   -9      -2.18    39.53    -9.26    60.02     5.42   -10.28     0.00     0.12     0.01P    0.84R    0.01  
Bromley            28   38   -6       2.84    64.57    -0.64    60.62     5.79    -9.71     0.00     0.25     0.02P    0.90R    0.01  
Sutton_United      28   36   -5       2.76    64.36     2.70    56.98     5.88   -10.49     0.00     0.06     0.00P    4.22R    0.16  
Solihull_Moors     28   34   -7       1.53    58.51     2.86    55.80     6.00   -12.16     0.00     0.04     0.01P    6.98R    0.32  
Braintree_Town     29   31  -17      -5.66    23.88   -12.37    54.07     5.69   -17.25     0.00     0.00     0.00P   11.01R    0.70  
Torquay            29   30  -10      -5.16    25.74    -2.75    51.02     5.64   -13.73     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.84R    1.87  
Southport          29   30  -24      -0.05    50.95    -7.16    46.33     5.44   -35.97     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.96R   11.19  
Maidstone_United   29   29  -21       0.35    53.26    -2.14    44.39     5.35   -34.42     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.85R   18.39  
Guiseley           29   28  -12      -3.41    33.42     1.30    46.52     5.48   -19.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.72R    8.65  
Woking             28   27  -13      -9.46    11.71    -9.10    49.51     5.82   -17.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.36R    4.06  
North_Ferriby      30   27  -27       0.67    55.35    -5.04    40.88     5.00   -38.63     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.93R   44.75  
York               29   25  -20     -12.51     5.83   -16.35    46.43     5.70   -22.91     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.29R    9.89