Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 22 January 2017 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 January 2017, Arsenal 2 1 Burnley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          22   55  +32      12.08    97.49    11.44    86.17     5.27    47.07    72.41    89.73    96.32    98.87    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          22   47  +27       2.93    66.71     4.04    77.54     5.26    41.39    10.05    36.77    62.69    82.57    99.32     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        22   46  +29       4.32    74.45    10.01    78.11     5.33    45.10    11.28    43.12    68.20    85.41    99.40     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        22   45  +24       5.52    79.84     8.21    73.90     5.57    35.35     3.60    15.75    34.53    58.26    96.82     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   43  +15       2.07    61.67    -2.80    73.77     5.34    29.92     2.46    12.72    31.30    56.43    96.93     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   41  +12       3.69    70.68     1.51    68.34     5.31    20.32     0.20     1.86     6.51    16.75    82.60     0.00     0.00  
Everton          22   36  +10       2.18    62.64     4.70    61.15     5.37    14.76     0.00     0.06     0.45     1.69    22.89     0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        22   32   +2       4.21    74.25     6.27    51.44     5.40    -1.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.00     0.03R    0.00  
Stoke            22   28   -6       1.27    58.58     0.16    46.56     5.36   -11.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.81R    0.02  
West_Ham         22   28   -7      -1.51    41.52    -4.88    49.00     5.57    -8.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.32     0.33R    0.01  
Southampton      22   27   -4      -5.00    22.88    -6.56    50.24     5.45    -2.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.15R    0.00  
Bournemouth      22   26   -7       1.44    59.33     4.01    43.40     5.23   -15.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.38R    0.15  
Burnley          22   26   -9       1.32    59.10     0.33    44.55     5.48   -14.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.65R    0.14  
Watford          22   24  -13       0.05    51.59    -2.38    40.50     5.15   -23.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.44R    0.96  
Leicester        22   21  -13      -7.99    11.54   -10.40    42.74     5.48   -13.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     5.31R    0.46  
Middlesbrough    22   20   -7      -4.91    22.48     0.47    37.29     5.20   -13.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.73R    3.43  
Swansea          22   18  -25      -3.85    27.88    -9.50    34.84     5.25   -34.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.79R   10.45  
Crystal_Palace   22   16  -11      -8.37     9.55    -0.99    33.39     5.14   -19.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.83R   13.39  
Hull             22   16  -27      -3.33    30.78    -8.19    30.42     4.98   -40.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.89R   36.10  
Sunderland       22   15  -22      -5.89    17.10    -5.44    30.29     5.08   -33.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.64R   34.90  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 January 2017, Aston_Villa 2 2 Preston; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Newcastle       27   58  +33       4.08    70.01     6.48    95.06     5.97    50.04    60.88    97.14    99.97    98.33P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        26   57  +24      10.65    93.03     8.19    92.97     6.20    36.44    38.50    94.41    99.92    96.31P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    27   49   +2      13.83    96.65     4.88    73.68     6.12    -0.06     0.14     1.61    54.71    11.16P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    27   48  +10       9.75    90.15     7.89    74.02     6.10    10.01     0.13     1.60    59.41    14.14P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         26   46   +2      11.23    93.16     3.60    72.93     6.29     1.32     0.08     1.23    50.47    10.46P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       27   45   +5       4.95    74.59     0.32    74.20     6.12     9.74     0.11     1.60    60.43    17.72P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           27   43   +6      -0.20    48.84    -3.07    73.38     5.97    12.43     0.09     1.29    56.87    20.04P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley        27   41   +5       5.69    76.62     8.10    65.31     6.19     1.72     0.00     0.08    13.05     2.62P    0.16R    0.00  
Fulham          26   40  +13       2.09    60.88     9.59    68.79     6.43    14.56     0.02     0.35    30.57     7.89P    0.02R    0.00  
Norwich         27   40   +5      -2.97    35.23    -4.03    70.40     6.33    11.72     0.04     0.56    38.99    12.63P    0.02R    0.00  
Preston         27   40   +3       2.91    65.56     2.58    66.36     6.09     3.52     0.01     0.09    16.48     4.00P    0.08R    0.00  
Birmingham      27   37   -5       1.70    59.53    -2.65    61.05     5.98    -7.77     0.00     0.00     3.31     0.70P    1.02R    0.01  
Aston_Villa     27   36   +1      -1.80    41.11    -0.72    62.87     6.18     2.41     0.00     0.01     6.94     1.81P    0.61R    0.00  
Ipswich         27   34   -5      -2.66    36.40    -4.84    58.64     5.99    -6.87     0.00     0.00     1.48     0.36P    2.84R    0.03  
Brentford       27   33   -1      -4.54    28.32    -1.48    60.78     6.19     1.67     0.00     0.01     3.77     1.00P    1.29R    0.01  
Cardiff         26   33   -9      -1.04    44.65    -6.37    57.75     6.20   -12.85     0.00     0.00     1.23     0.26P    4.44R    0.05  
QPR             27   33  -11      -1.45    42.96    -7.43    56.93     5.92   -14.05     0.00     0.00     0.61     0.14P    5.46R    0.08  
Wolverhampton   27   32   -3      -4.18    29.27    -1.75    58.21     6.08    -2.68     0.00     0.00     1.31     0.33P    3.63R    0.04  
Nott'm_Forest   27   30   -7      -4.27    29.12    -2.46    54.83     6.12    -8.82     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.07P   10.00R    0.18  
Bristol_City    27   27   -4      -6.48    19.92     1.76    50.83     6.01    -7.76     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.02P   24.86R    0.98  
Wigan           27   25   -8      -8.54    12.87    -3.54    48.85     6.01   -10.95     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   37.36R    1.87  
Burton_Albion   27   25  -11      -3.47    32.44     0.73    44.46     5.74   -20.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.57R    6.09  
Blackburn       27   25  -12      -8.46    12.85    -6.79    48.75     6.00   -15.54     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    39.71R    1.97  
Rotherham       27   16  -33      -7.36    14.09    -8.98    33.08     5.69   -47.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.92R   88.70  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 January 2017, Bradford 1 1 Millwall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Sheff_Utd        28   57  +21       9.47    89.04     6.69    86.78     6.01    28.56    37.33    70.31    98.96    78.28P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       27   55  +27       8.23    86.13    11.96    87.42     6.11    36.61    45.30    75.40    99.18    82.52P    0.00     0.00  
Bolton           26   50  +16       6.90    81.73     5.18    82.38     6.30    23.62    14.32    38.17    94.04    54.38P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town   27   46  +11       6.23    79.05     6.81    72.39     6.05    11.60     0.61     3.19    49.81    13.04P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         28   46  +11       1.95    60.09     2.57    72.87     5.82    14.36     0.61     3.16    54.03    16.88P    0.00R    0.00  
Rochdale         27   45   +5       4.98    73.72     0.64    72.69     6.22     7.39     0.76     3.61    50.15    13.45P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend         27   42   +5       4.79    73.72     4.82    67.44     6.05     4.08     0.05     0.45    19.92     4.13P    0.06R    0.00  
Peterborough     26   41   +9       0.69    53.64     1.90    72.11     6.37    14.55     0.64     3.34    49.59    14.96P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall         27   40   +2      -1.40    43.06    -4.60    70.68     6.18     9.05     0.28     1.69    39.03    11.39P    0.02R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   28   39   -3       4.29    70.85     3.62    61.29     5.99    -7.43     0.00     0.04     3.57     0.68P    1.75R    0.04  
AFC_Wimbledon    27   37   +5       3.45    67.81    10.23    60.76     6.10     1.46     0.00     0.03     3.70     0.64P    1.73R    0.05  
Oxford_Utd       27   37   +4       0.39    52.59     4.56    63.10     6.16     4.26     0.01     0.09     7.57     1.68P    0.81R    0.01  
Walsall          27   37   -2      -2.31    38.39    -5.50    64.56     6.05     0.34     0.03     0.11     9.81     2.45P    0.46R    0.01  
Charlton         26   36   +7      -3.39    32.86     1.30    66.05     6.40    10.93     0.05     0.39    17.51     4.88P    0.25R    0.00  
Port_Vale        26   32  -10      -0.29    49.13    -4.82    55.17     6.14   -16.52     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.08P   14.72R    1.07  
MK_Dons          26   31   -3      -6.40    20.04    -5.50    57.70     6.35    -4.12     0.00     0.01     1.44     0.34P    6.57R    0.43  
Gillingham       27   31   -9      -4.60    27.93    -6.37    57.64     6.25    -8.24     0.00     0.00     1.16     0.21P    7.20R    0.47  
Northampton      28   30   -9      -2.19    40.13     1.47    52.48     5.94   -13.09     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.00P   24.45R    2.96  
Swindon          28   29  -14      -5.63    23.41    -8.03    51.58     5.87   -17.17     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   30.62R    3.89  
Shrewsbury       28   28  -13      -3.75    31.36    -2.83    48.39     5.77   -19.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.24R    9.86  
Bury             28   26  -12      -5.25    24.95     0.82    47.98     5.89   -16.74     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    51.98R   11.53  
Chesterfield     28   26  -17      -6.34    20.45    -7.76    46.84     5.71   -23.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.45R   15.76  
Oldham           26   22  -15      -6.35    17.92    -5.55    43.89     5.93   -21.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.69R   31.92  
Coventry         27   21  -16     -12.85     3.68   -11.62    45.43     6.03   -18.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.00R   22.00  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 January 2017, Accrington_Stanley 1 1 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Doncaster            27   58  +21       8.09    84.90     0.92    93.07     6.27    35.04    69.91    97.42    99.94    98.19P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             26   54  +15       9.53    89.50     1.99    87.40     6.37    23.90    23.94    85.98    99.24    89.60P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             27   48  +11       7.29    81.85     5.69    76.45     6.33    14.56     1.29    25.12    79.70    36.75P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           26   45  +14       1.65    58.37     2.57    79.69     6.42    24.73     3.60    47.66    91.22    60.69P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              26   43   +6       4.52    72.94     1.67    72.31     6.35     8.95     0.32     9.27    57.28    20.61P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                26   42  +13       2.04    60.55     6.60    73.68     6.43    19.30     0.62    14.57    67.75    28.33P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester           27   40   +7      -1.66    42.00     0.12    69.33     6.42    11.93     0.08     4.56    40.72    14.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet               27   40   +0       4.30    71.23     2.24    65.52     6.25    -0.94     0.01     1.06    18.68     4.32P    0.01R    0.00  
Exeter               26   39  +12       0.21    51.15     7.33    69.31     6.41    16.28     0.08     4.97    41.83    13.81P    0.00R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        26   39   +7       0.65    53.45     3.02    68.03     6.44     9.42     0.06     3.17    32.86    10.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Grimsby              27   39   +4       3.14    66.20     5.56    63.43     6.20     1.80     0.01     0.50    11.60     2.68P    0.04R    0.01  
Mansfield            27   37   -1       1.22    56.93     0.39    61.78     6.10    -2.58     0.00     0.20     6.88     1.54P    0.11R    0.00  
Blackpool            26   36  +11      -6.82    19.11     0.55    69.38     6.51    19.80     0.10     5.34    43.19    17.70P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         25   35   -7       5.90    79.27     1.08    58.88     6.44   -14.59     0.00     0.10     3.43     0.58P    0.90R    0.14  
Stevenage            27   33   -6      -1.13    44.98    -1.07    57.47     6.22    -8.62     0.00     0.03     2.02     0.43P    1.15R    0.22  
Yeovil               26   32   -3      -0.62    47.45     0.79    57.34     6.27    -5.64     0.00     0.02     1.90     0.34P    1.27R    0.25  
Morecambe            25   31  -11       2.41    63.45    -1.35    54.74     6.49   -19.77     0.00     0.02     1.02     0.17P    4.21R    1.10  
Hartlepool           27   30   -9      -0.14    50.24     1.86    50.21     5.95   -18.17     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   12.67R    3.84  
Crewe                27   28  -13      -4.81    27.42    -6.90    51.82     6.20   -16.23     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    8.78R    2.51  
Accrington_Stanley   26   26  -11      -8.21    13.74    -8.99    51.80     6.31   -13.32     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.06P    8.50R    2.58  
Leyton_Orient        26   25  -11      -9.26    10.81    -8.90    51.82     6.37   -11.85     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.06P    8.86R    2.54  
Cheltenham           26   24  -11      -7.25    16.70    -4.68    48.10     6.36   -15.84     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   21.44R    7.90  
Notts_County         27   23  -22      -5.06    25.54    -7.54    42.14     5.85   -33.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.28R   35.37  
Newport_County       26   19  -16      -8.06    12.99    -2.95    40.68     6.08   -24.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.75R   43.54  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 January 2017, Boreham_Wood 0 0 Solihull_Moors; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Lincoln_City       27   58  +31      10.87    92.53    15.03    91.12     6.27    42.00    53.35    98.37    64.01P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       29   54  +24       0.69    53.06     3.01    85.08     5.58    36.32    13.82    91.97    37.30P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere           27   53  +16       6.09    79.22     1.49    87.44     5.97    28.15    22.31    94.46    43.63P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red          28   52  +16       2.00    59.08    -1.52    83.28     5.97    26.40     8.58    83.35    28.87P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     29   49  +13       1.74    58.32     1.43    78.09     5.84    22.22     1.20    55.06    11.96P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             27   46  +15       5.87    77.82    10.49    74.03     6.20    17.93     0.45    27.53     4.82P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot          29   46   +8       6.05    77.92     7.69    70.05     5.72     9.17     0.03     8.92     1.44P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          29   43  +16      -1.93    40.67     8.55    68.80     5.77    19.92     0.02     7.60     1.41P    0.01R    0.00  
Chester            29   43  +10       0.50    52.84     5.95    65.88     5.78     8.88     0.01     2.85     0.45P    0.04R    0.00  
Macclesfield       27   43  +10       0.33    51.69     1.51    72.74     6.12    15.37     0.22    20.59     4.37P    0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       29   42   +5       3.05    65.75     5.42    64.45     5.59     4.23     0.00     1.19     0.17P    0.05R    0.00  
Eastleigh          28   41   +7      -2.52    37.57    -0.81    68.79     6.07    11.49     0.02     7.64     1.52P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham            30   39   -9      -2.21    39.55    -9.34    59.98     5.40   -10.30     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.78R    0.01  
Bromley            28   38   -6       2.81    64.41    -0.67    60.65     5.76    -9.69     0.00     0.26     0.02P    0.93R    0.00  
Sutton_United      28   36   -5       2.99    65.46     3.00    56.94     5.85   -10.55     0.00     0.06     0.01P    4.38R    0.13  
Solihull_Moors     28   34   -7       1.57    58.46     2.86    55.76     5.97   -12.20     0.00     0.04     0.01P    6.88R    0.30  
Braintree_Town     29   31  -17      -5.72    23.58   -12.50    54.10     5.71   -17.20     0.00     0.00     0.00P   11.00R    0.65  
Torquay            29   30  -10      -5.10    26.09    -2.69    50.95     5.62   -13.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.90R    1.85  
Southport          29   30  -24       0.01    51.05    -7.04    46.27     5.37   -36.05     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.59R   11.24  
Maidstone_United   29   29  -21       0.20    52.43    -2.36    44.52     5.36   -34.19     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.37R   18.04  
Guiseley           29   28  -12      -3.45    33.28     1.30    46.58     5.47   -19.24     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.40R    8.68  
Woking             28   27  -13      -9.49    11.55    -9.22    49.53     5.82   -17.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.37R    4.03  
North_Ferriby      30   27  -27       0.57    54.57    -5.27    40.90     4.99   -38.57     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.91R   44.95  
York               29   25  -20     -12.47     5.80   -16.31    46.39     5.69   -22.93     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.38R   10.12