Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 5 January 2017 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 4 January 2017, Tottenham 2 0 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          20   49  +27      10.86    96.53     9.98    84.02     5.71    44.06    56.85    77.92    89.35    95.57    99.95     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        20   44  +25       7.51    88.62     9.66    77.13     5.88    39.14    13.12    33.58    54.24    73.44    99.30     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        20   42  +25       4.52    76.67     8.52    76.80     5.73    40.80    10.83    31.45    52.54    72.71    99.31     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         20   42  +19       3.04    68.11    -0.19    76.59     5.68    35.68    10.20    28.87    49.32    70.10    99.21     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          20   41  +22       1.91    61.06     2.91    75.60     5.65    38.47     7.96    24.03    43.76    64.98    99.01     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          20   39  +12       4.64    76.38     1.75    69.82     5.76    21.46     1.04     4.15    10.72    22.83    92.20     0.00     0.00  
Everton          20   30   +5       0.33    52.16     1.92    56.87     5.89     8.06     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.36     8.36     0.01R    0.00  
West_Brom        20   29   +4       3.31    70.91     7.07    51.21     5.72     0.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.37     0.11R    0.00  
Bournemouth      20   25   -5       2.94    68.75     5.26    46.02     5.77   -12.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17     2.24R    0.08  
Southampton      20   24   -6      -4.64    23.30    -7.61    50.02     5.86    -4.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.47R    0.03  
Stoke            20   24   -8       0.31    52.74    -1.28    44.58     5.74   -14.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     3.84R    0.19  
Burnley          20   23   -9       0.57    54.67    -0.48    42.89     5.81   -16.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     7.29R    0.53  
West_Ham         20   22  -12      -3.25    30.59    -7.31    45.24     6.01   -14.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     3.90R    0.24  
Watford          20   22  -13       0.60    55.03    -2.67    41.08     5.55   -23.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.08R    1.04  
Leicester        20   21   -7      -7.33    12.47    -7.66    46.04     5.91    -6.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17     2.32R    0.14  
Middlesbrough    20   19   -5      -3.86    27.25     1.50    39.42     5.76   -11.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.81R    2.20  
Crystal_Palace   20   16   -7      -6.92    13.32     0.93    36.05     5.59   -15.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    36.61R    6.24  
Sunderland       20   15  -18      -4.40    23.33    -3.65    33.14     5.56   -29.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.31R   16.85  
Swansea          20   15  -22      -5.53    18.18    -9.57    32.94     5.58   -34.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.05R   18.57  
Hull             20   13  -27      -3.92    26.15    -9.08    28.51     5.27   -44.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.95R   53.90  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 2 January 2017, Birmingham 1 3 Brentford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Brighton        24   54  +25      10.41    93.61     9.16    93.90     6.52    39.07    51.90    93.42    99.89    95.67P    0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       25   52  +28       3.23    66.42     5.81    92.83     6.32    46.85    46.54    92.08    99.85    95.32P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         24   46   +4      13.31    96.63     4.54    75.97     6.69     3.84     0.62     4.42    66.43    16.19P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    25   46   +2      13.39    96.73     4.56    73.14     6.50    -0.48     0.20     1.92    49.33    10.23P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    25   45  +10       9.50    90.53     7.88    73.56     6.51     9.81     0.23     2.17    54.01    13.39P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       25   42   +4       5.05    76.07    -0.21    73.56     6.45     8.26     0.20     2.02    54.17    15.98P    0.00R    0.00  
Derby           25   40   +6      -0.17    48.96    -2.63    73.67     6.37    13.25     0.17     1.96    56.57    20.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnsley        25   38   +6       5.11    75.30     8.41    64.74     6.67     2.25     0.01     0.11    12.28     2.56P    0.39R    0.00  
Norwich         25   37   +4      -2.44    37.54    -3.86    71.31     6.74    12.53     0.10     1.27    42.75    14.34P    0.02R    0.00  
Fulham          24   36  +11       1.61    58.93     8.88    67.61     6.95    12.73     0.02     0.41    24.65     6.22P    0.13R    0.00  
Preston         25   36   +1       1.82    60.08     0.91    64.17     6.43     0.38     0.00     0.06     9.72     2.29P    0.31R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     25   35   +2      -0.13    49.48     0.20    64.69     6.55     3.59     0.01     0.08    11.30     3.00P    0.34R    0.00  
Birmingham      25   35   -5       2.40    63.48    -2.58    61.93     6.44    -7.57     0.00     0.02     4.87     1.07P    1.13R    0.01  
Brentford       25   33   +1      -2.69    36.10    -0.92    63.49     6.63     3.63     0.00     0.05     9.08     2.43P    0.61R    0.00  
Ipswich         25   31   -4      -3.13    33.52    -4.17    58.73     6.42    -5.28     0.00     0.00     1.90     0.45P    3.31R    0.03  
Wolverhampton   25   29   -2      -4.87    25.41    -1.44    57.80     6.53    -2.01     0.00     0.00     1.59     0.40P    4.27R    0.06  
QPR             25   29  -12      -2.63    36.54    -8.26    55.27     6.36   -15.68     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.12P    9.86R    0.13  
Bristol_City    25   27   -2      -4.23    28.68     2.93    53.91     6.40    -5.18     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.07P   12.44R    0.27  
Cardiff         24   27  -11      -3.52    31.44    -7.32    54.34     6.63   -15.11     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.11P   13.32R    0.29  
Nott'm_Forest   25   26   -8      -5.31    23.74    -3.04    53.39     6.54   -10.17     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.07P   15.45R    0.34  
Burton_Albion   25   25   -8      -1.97    40.13     2.01    47.26     6.22   -17.21     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   48.39R    1.83  
Blackburn       25   24  -11      -7.40    15.06    -6.91    50.72     6.43   -14.06     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   27.20R    0.75  
Wigan           25   19  -11     -10.50     6.92    -4.73    44.54     6.40   -15.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.58R    5.52  
Rotherham       25   13  -30      -9.14     7.63    -9.21    31.17     5.95   -48.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.25R   90.77  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 2 January 2017, AFC_Wimbledon 2 2 Millwall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Sheff_Utd        25   53  +22       9.70    91.21     8.11    87.83     6.59    31.04    41.56    68.69    98.62    77.11P    0.00     0.00  
Bolton           25   50  +17       7.98    85.78     5.79    85.23     6.53    26.73    24.73    52.15    96.65    65.00P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       25   49  +25       6.24    80.35    12.15    85.26     6.48    36.45    27.52    55.46    97.39    68.12P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale         25   45  +10       6.34    80.31     3.40    76.86     6.61    14.56     3.12    10.43    72.74    23.99P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         25   42  +10       3.09    66.68     3.06    74.15     6.43    15.01     1.30     5.07    59.15    18.88P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town   25   40   +8       4.14    71.47     5.49    68.88     6.45     8.29     0.17     0.95    26.97     6.16P    0.04R    0.00  
Southend         25   39   +6       4.50    73.23     5.62    67.42     6.45     5.51     0.08     0.49    19.75     4.06P    0.14R    0.00  
Peterborough     24   38  +12      -0.27    48.56     3.69    72.94     6.85    19.22     1.09     4.36    53.24    16.82P    0.01R    0.00  
Millwall         25   38   +2      -1.09    44.08    -5.26    70.80     6.58     8.17     0.32     1.77    37.45    10.80P    0.04R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   25   36   -4       5.56    77.52     2.73    61.24     6.59   -10.16     0.01     0.05     4.23     0.72P    2.57R    0.06  
Charlton         25   35   +7      -2.92    34.92     1.45    66.69     6.60    11.33     0.10     0.49    19.11     5.31P    0.25R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd       25   34   +1       0.88    55.31     2.57    61.12     6.49    -1.15     0.01     0.04     4.16     0.87P    2.03R    0.06  
AFC_Wimbledon    25   33   +4       2.48    63.87     9.76    58.95     6.49    -0.38     0.00     0.02     2.34     0.43P    4.12R    0.16  
Walsall          25   31   -7      -3.56    31.33    -7.66    60.79     6.41    -5.38     0.00     0.01     3.37     0.76P    2.68R    0.07  
Port_Vale        25   31  -10       0.26    51.98    -4.68    56.16     6.34   -15.51     0.00     0.00     0.68     0.11P   10.95R    0.58  
Northampton      25   30   -1      -1.19    44.54     4.03    57.32     6.64    -3.64     0.00     0.01     1.32     0.25P    7.85R    0.45  
Gillingham       25   30   -8      -3.47    32.20    -6.37    58.69     6.57    -8.37     0.00     0.01     1.86     0.39P    5.64R    0.33  
MK_Dons          25   28   -5      -7.04    17.31    -6.10    56.19     6.62    -5.81     0.00     0.00     0.87     0.20P   10.49R    0.64  
Swindon          25   25  -14      -5.64    21.99    -8.14    51.49     6.44   -17.54     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   30.88R    3.93  
Bury             25   22  -15      -4.84    25.18    -2.10    45.46     6.38   -24.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.17R   19.39  
Chesterfield     25   22  -16      -6.78    17.46    -7.40    46.87     6.31   -22.71     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   59.08R   13.80  
Coventry         25   21  -14     -10.73     6.21   -10.39    48.49     6.48   -15.97     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   47.02R    8.82  
Shrewsbury       25   21  -15      -6.17    18.95    -3.89    44.62     6.33   -23.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.35R   22.56  
Oldham           24   19  -15      -6.91    14.60    -5.83    43.29     6.31   -22.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.69R   29.15  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 5 January 2017, Doncaster 3 1 Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Doncaster            25   52  +17       6.78    81.48     0.08    90.29     6.73    31.70    61.11    92.22    99.64    94.38P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             24   48  +12       7.66    85.50     1.13    84.63     6.72    21.55    21.47    72.05    97.28    78.74P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             24   46  +14       8.64    87.75     7.36    80.18     6.97    20.07     9.02    47.33    89.81    56.44P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           25   42  +13       0.67    53.18     2.46    78.20     6.59    23.95     4.56    36.41    86.42    51.50P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              24   41   +6       5.56    78.22     2.04    73.22     6.80     9.19     1.12    13.05    60.80    23.61P    0.00R    0.00  
Luton                24   38  +12       1.20    56.66     6.21    72.34     6.76    18.21     0.90    11.41    58.91    23.34P    0.00R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        24   38   +9       1.84    60.20     4.19    70.54     6.85    12.60     0.51     7.46    46.85    16.66P    0.00R    0.00  
Colchester           24   36   +7      -1.38    42.77     0.30    70.17     7.06    12.99     0.55     7.46    45.50    17.08P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnet               24   36   +0       4.42    73.09     2.21    65.46     6.91    -1.30     0.05     1.61    19.65     5.01P    0.10R    0.02  
Blackpool            24   34  +11      -5.99    20.99     0.63    70.81     6.89    20.82     0.63     8.60    51.13    22.34P    0.01R    0.00  
Exeter               24   33   +6      -1.20    43.79     4.12    64.60     6.86     8.11     0.06     1.37    18.08     4.96P    0.14R    0.03  
Grimsby              24   33   +4       1.53    58.96     6.01    62.13     6.93     2.61     0.02     0.59    10.35     2.60P    0.44R    0.07  
Crawley_Town         24   32   -8       4.62    74.88     0.60    57.17     6.64   -15.80     0.00     0.05     2.14     0.36P    2.94R    0.68  
Yeovil               24   30   -3      -0.29    49.05     0.22    57.04     6.58    -6.95     0.00     0.07     2.08     0.47P    2.42R    0.57  
Stevenage            24   30   -4      -0.65    47.19    -0.31    58.88     6.87    -6.11     0.00     0.17     4.15     0.95P    1.77R    0.43  
Mansfield            24   30   -6      -0.02    50.70    -2.24    57.70     6.65    -9.20     0.00     0.07     2.61     0.58P    2.23R    0.54  
Crewe                24   28   -7      -3.24    33.59    -4.80    56.24     6.88    -9.66     0.00     0.06     1.86     0.44P    4.07R    1.18  
Hartlepool           24   27   -9       0.86    55.79     1.90    50.81     6.63   -19.12     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.03P   16.42R    5.90  
Morecambe            23   27  -14       1.98    62.47    -3.05    52.44     6.81   -24.53     0.00     0.01     0.49     0.06P   12.74R    4.61  
Leyton_Orient        24   25   -8      -7.67    14.42    -7.67    54.83     6.78    -8.38     0.00     0.02     1.07     0.24P    5.63R    1.68  
Accrington_Stanley   24   25   -8      -7.44    15.33    -7.44    54.17     6.81    -9.34     0.00     0.01     0.85     0.20P    6.75R    2.15  
Notts_County         24   22  -17      -3.59    31.21    -5.15    45.46     6.56   -27.98     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   45.26R   22.91  
Cheltenham           24   21  -13      -7.18    15.96    -6.17    46.86     6.75   -19.18     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   34.62R   15.94  
Newport_County       23   17  -14      -7.08    14.60    -2.63    41.90     6.74   -24.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.44R   43.27  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 2 January 2017, Dag_&_Red 3 0 Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Lincoln_City       26   55  +29      10.15    91.68    14.44    89.12     6.44    39.45    41.53    94.62    53.50P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere           27   53  +16       6.35    80.22     1.80    87.24     5.99    27.86    24.17    91.39    44.06P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       26   49  +20       1.76    58.56     2.01    84.85     6.20    33.21    16.36    84.69    36.42P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red          27   49  +12       1.98    59.52    -3.00    81.72     6.14    22.43     6.48    68.35    23.45P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     26   48  +16       4.02    69.77     2.82    81.88     6.35    26.33     7.38    69.98    21.45P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             25   46  +17       8.18    86.49    11.87    78.43     6.63    22.48     3.40    47.97    11.47P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot          27   42   +7       5.04    74.95     7.06    69.06     6.11     8.59     0.06     5.71     0.99P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield       25   40  +10       0.47    52.50     2.10    73.70     6.49    17.18     0.49    21.72     5.44P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          27   39  +14      -2.09    39.60     8.16    67.68     6.15    18.12     0.02     4.33     0.89P    0.02R    0.00  
Chester            27   39   +9      -0.45    48.12     5.49    64.63     6.23     7.86     0.01     1.66     0.25P    0.14R    0.00  
Eastleigh          26   39   +7      -1.56    41.98    -0.50    69.63     6.44    11.58     0.09     8.08     1.82P    0.01R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       27   38   +4       2.06    61.48     4.96    63.41     5.99     3.51     0.00     0.75     0.12P    0.19R    0.01  
Bromley            27   38   -2       2.76    64.53     1.02    62.42     5.97    -5.01     0.00     0.48     0.08P    0.33R    0.00  
Sutton_United      26   35   -4       3.95    70.50     3.09    58.35     6.30   -10.11     0.00     0.11     0.02P    2.57R    0.05  
Solihull_Moors     26   33   -5       2.04    61.06     3.15    57.76     6.43    -9.90     0.00     0.09     0.02P    3.62R    0.10  
Wrexham            27   32  -11      -4.11    29.76    -9.87    57.57     5.99   -11.76     0.00     0.03     0.00P    2.90R    0.07  
Torquay            26   30   -7      -1.85    40.83    -0.97    56.15     6.27    -9.29     0.00     0.03     0.01P    5.31R    0.24  
Braintree_Town     26   27  -17      -5.78    21.80   -12.64    53.84     6.22   -17.93     0.00     0.01     0.00P   10.96R    0.66  
Southport          26   27  -22       0.12    51.85    -6.90    46.66     5.90   -35.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.11R    7.95  
Maidstone_United   27   26  -21      -0.05    51.15    -2.13    43.61     5.80   -35.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.34R   17.06  
Woking             26   24  -13     -10.08     9.12    -9.61    48.70     6.23   -18.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.63R    3.95  
North_Ferriby      27   24  -24      -0.13    51.08    -5.16    40.49     5.53   -37.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.45R   35.67  
Guiseley           27   22  -14      -6.42    19.20    -0.11    42.55     5.83   -22.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.77R   20.00  
York               27   21  -21     -13.54     3.45   -17.12    44.08     6.07   -25.75     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.65R   14.24