Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 29 December 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 28 December 2016, Southampton 1 4 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Chelsea          18   46  +27      11.09    97.78    10.79    84.81     6.05    45.55    59.57    81.15    91.66    97.11    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        18   40  +24       6.91    88.29     9.71    76.74     6.31    39.59    12.02    33.53    55.45    76.04    99.06     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         18   39  +19       3.18    70.09     0.36    77.76     6.09    38.23    14.32    38.94    61.58    80.63    99.40     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          18   37  +20       2.18    63.72     3.60    76.07     6.07    39.33     9.29    28.25    51.43    73.68    99.04     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        18   36  +20       2.82    68.01     6.20    73.40     6.22    35.28     4.42    16.11    33.32    56.05    97.36     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          18   33   +9       2.71    67.05     0.73    66.91     6.20    18.80     0.38     1.99     6.42    15.78    83.72     0.00     0.00  
Everton          18   26   +2       0.32    52.52     0.79    55.67     6.27     5.00     0.00     0.02     0.08     0.46    11.10     0.05R    0.00  
Southampton      18   24   -2      -2.66    32.99    -4.74    53.91     6.30     1.60     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.22     7.09     0.13R    0.00  
West_Brom        18   23   +1       0.94    57.10     5.36    47.41     6.10    -3.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.85     1.91R    0.10  
Watford          18   22   -8       1.61    61.71    -0.46    43.77     6.01   -18.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21     7.39R    0.60  
West_Ham         18   22   -9      -1.60    39.53    -6.05    48.09     6.44   -11.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.25     2.09R    0.12  
Bournemouth      18   21   -8       2.05    64.99     2.89    42.78     6.09   -18.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17    10.56R    1.16  
Stoke            18   21   -8      -0.25    49.25    -2.11    43.54     6.06   -16.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17     7.93R    0.70  
Burnley          18   20  -11       0.74    56.41    -2.17    40.95     6.10   -21.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    17.28R    2.14  
Middlesbrough    18   18   -4      -2.84    31.84     1.63    40.52     6.11   -11.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    16.81R    2.23  
Leicester        18   17   -8      -8.04     8.83    -7.78    45.03     6.36    -7.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.44     5.34R    0.54  
Crystal_Palace   18   16   -4      -5.25    19.36     1.84    38.85     6.03   -12.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    24.34R    3.76  
Sunderland       18   14  -15      -3.79    25.19    -2.77    34.37     5.94   -26.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.82R   15.18  
Swansea          18   12  -20      -6.33    12.78    -8.58    32.98     6.01   -32.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.37R   22.86  
Hull             18   12  -25      -3.38    28.26    -9.25    29.49     5.71   -42.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.99R   50.60  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 29 December 2016, Aston_Villa 1 1 Leeds_United; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Brighton        23   51  +24       9.18    91.70     8.75    92.26     6.79    38.05    38.71    88.22    99.74    92.35P    0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       23   49  +27       3.84    70.32     5.96    94.40     6.73    48.87    59.10    93.19    99.85    95.88P    0.00     0.00  
Reading         23   43   +3      11.85    95.45     3.74    73.89     6.88     2.17     0.35     2.91    53.88    12.45P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    24   42   +7       8.98    89.59     6.59    72.37     6.68     7.48     0.18     1.81    46.67    10.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield    23   42   +1      12.42    96.31     4.13    71.79     6.95    -1.66     0.16     1.61    41.58     8.16P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       23   40   +4       5.71    79.72    -0.17    74.80     6.88     9.00     0.49     3.71    60.71    18.52P    0.01R    0.00  
Derby           23   39   +9       0.85    54.98    -0.65    76.84     6.74    18.27     0.82     6.25    73.44    29.69P    0.00     0.00  
Fulham          23   36  +12       2.47    63.64     9.05    69.10     7.09    13.92     0.07     0.91    31.75     7.96P    0.07R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     24   35   +3       0.76    54.83     0.56    66.28     6.78     4.90     0.02     0.21    17.27     4.54P    0.21R    0.00  
Barnsley        23   34   +5       4.39    73.30     8.29    63.07     7.03     0.45     0.01     0.10     9.31     1.80P    0.98R    0.00  
Birmingham      23   34   -3       3.62    70.21    -1.39    63.94     6.87    -5.17     0.00     0.10     9.95     2.11P    0.68R    0.01  
Norwich         23   33   +1      -2.63    35.75    -5.19    69.18     7.27     8.12     0.08     0.84    31.80     9.92P    0.12R    0.00  
Preston         23   32   +0       0.95    56.12     0.51    62.64     6.83    -1.02     0.01     0.06     7.49     1.75P    0.98R    0.02  
Brentford       23   29   -1      -3.46    31.31    -2.07    61.76     7.05     0.87     0.00     0.05     6.79     1.66P    1.64R    0.01  
Wolverhampton   23   28   -1      -3.50    31.52    -0.91    59.79     6.97    -0.65     0.00     0.02     3.93     1.01P    2.74R    0.06  
Ipswich         23   28   -4      -3.20    32.52    -3.88    58.75     6.85    -4.84     0.00     0.00     2.64     0.63P    3.74R    0.08  
Bristol_City    23   27   +0      -2.17    38.41     3.78    57.08     6.87    -2.46     0.00     0.01     1.56     0.29P    6.01R    0.17  
Nott'm_Forest   23   26   -5      -3.63    30.41    -1.88    56.05     6.91    -7.55     0.00     0.00     1.11     0.27P    8.42R    0.25  
Burton_Albion   24   25   -7      -1.12    44.53     2.44    48.94     6.47   -15.78     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   36.15R    1.60  
Cardiff         23   24  -12      -4.82    24.58    -7.73    52.44     6.81   -16.57     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.06P   19.94R    0.87  
QPR             23   23  -14      -5.38    21.94    -9.51    51.08     6.68   -19.05     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P   26.41R    1.22  
Blackburn       23   20  -12      -8.70     9.91    -7.86    48.14     6.79   -17.19     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   41.03R    3.11  
Wigan           23   18  -10      -9.46     7.92    -4.47    46.11     6.79   -14.74     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P   52.32R    5.26  
Rotherham       24   13  -27      -8.90     8.12    -8.11    32.36     6.13   -45.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.53R   87.34  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 26 December 2016, Bolton 2 1 Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Scunthorpe       23   48  +26       7.75    86.72    12.72    87.68     6.87    38.60    45.25    71.98    98.49    79.91P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        23   47  +19       7.96    87.74     7.43    85.14     7.00    28.92    27.22    55.82    96.39    66.96P    0.00     0.00  
Bolton           23   46  +16       7.45    85.43     5.78    83.94     6.95    25.70    21.28    47.04    94.85    60.98P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale         23   39   +7       4.25    72.54     2.16    73.59     7.01    11.56     1.59     6.11    56.40    16.99P    0.02R    0.00  
Bradford         23   38   +9       2.28    63.02     2.80    73.79     6.78    15.39     1.51     5.94    58.58    19.79P    0.01R    0.00  
Southend         23   37   +6       5.09    77.00     5.45    68.31     6.92     5.65     0.24     1.31    27.06     6.07P    0.22R    0.00  
Peterborough     22   36  +12       0.49    52.53     3.63    74.04     7.17    19.77     2.22     7.94    61.14    21.90P    0.03R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town   23   34   +6       1.81    60.60     4.91    65.70     6.81     6.32     0.07     0.51    16.65     3.82P    0.65R    0.01  
Millwall         23   34   +1      -1.75    40.28    -5.31    70.03     7.01     7.94     0.43     2.14    36.61    11.17P    0.16R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   23   33   -3       4.96    76.15     3.13    60.72     7.01    -9.64     0.01     0.08     5.09     0.87P    4.93R    0.28  
AFC_Wimbledon    23   32   +6       3.35    68.99    10.41    60.97     6.96     1.96     0.02     0.14     6.09     1.15P    3.50R    0.13  
Charlton         23   31   +4      -2.97    34.11     0.27    65.19     7.10     8.06     0.09     0.55    16.70     4.60P    0.93R    0.03  
Northampton      23   30   +1       0.41    53.04     4.33    59.88     7.05    -2.06     0.02     0.08     4.45     0.93P    5.74R    0.39  
Oxford_Utd       23   30   +0       0.01    50.66     2.24    59.20     6.96    -3.32     0.01     0.04     3.58     0.71P    6.42R    0.38  
Walsall          23   30   -5      -2.50    36.19    -6.50    63.31     6.86    -2.22     0.03     0.21     9.02     2.24P    1.89R    0.09  
Gillingham       23   30   -6      -1.38    42.45    -5.38    61.76     7.00    -5.96     0.01     0.12     6.66     1.43P    3.61R    0.20  
Port_Vale        23   27  -11      -0.69    46.94    -4.94    54.78     6.76   -16.93     0.00     0.00     0.61     0.11P   20.48R    2.22  
MK_Dons          23   24   -6      -8.00    13.16    -6.69    55.25     7.07    -6.35     0.00     0.01     1.13     0.28P   17.29R    2.02  
Swindon          23   24  -13      -4.29    27.00    -7.66    53.04     6.86   -16.84     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.06P   28.12R    3.95  
Bury             23   21  -13      -4.30    26.94    -1.97    46.42     6.78   -23.42     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   65.01R   20.44  
Shrewsbury       23   21  -13      -4.41    26.25    -3.37    46.83     6.72   -22.23     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   63.20R   18.25  
Chesterfield     23   21  -15      -5.53    21.32    -6.96    48.66     6.81   -21.85     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   52.33R   12.48  
Coventry         23   19  -14     -10.46     6.08   -11.09    48.35     6.80   -17.26     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.02P   52.65R   12.37  
Oldham           22   18  -14      -5.73    18.22    -5.40    44.83     6.69   -21.78     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    72.81R   26.77  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 26 December 2016, Cheltenham 1 2 Barnet; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Doncaster            22   45  +14       5.46    77.77    -0.54    88.30     7.46    30.06    46.90    83.96    98.91    88.23P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             22   45  +11       8.24    88.30     1.33    85.42     7.18    22.12    26.89    73.59    97.66    80.21P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             22   43  +15       8.56    88.58     8.60    81.22     7.41    23.06    12.99    52.35    92.51    61.46P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           22   38  +14       0.51    52.55     3.06    79.22     7.20    26.30     8.23    42.01    89.47    56.55P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                22   35  +11       1.20    56.95     5.60    71.96     7.23    17.05     1.11    11.19    60.42    23.39P    0.02R    0.00  
Wycombe              22   35   +4       3.12    67.68     1.26    70.23     7.20     7.61     0.59     7.01    48.57    16.33P    0.03R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        22   34   +5       2.03    61.66     2.36    68.79     7.29     7.84     0.41     5.15    41.15    12.90P    0.08R    0.02  
Blackpool            22   33  +12      -4.41    26.43     1.35    74.06     7.34    24.07     2.48    18.56    71.62    35.55P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnet               22   33   +1       3.58    69.97     2.36    64.62     7.24    -1.19     0.09     1.51    20.80     4.93P    0.39R    0.11  
Colchester           22   30   +3      -2.81    35.05    -0.88    66.07     7.57     7.67     0.23     2.82    28.97     9.19P    0.28R    0.07  
Stevenage            22   30   -1       0.93    55.86     0.82    61.49     7.25    -3.43     0.03     0.52    11.18     2.51P    1.27R    0.36  
Grimsby              22   29   +2       0.64    54.31     4.63    59.24     7.27    -1.85     0.01     0.32     7.03     1.57P    2.41R    0.75  
Yeovil               22   29   -1       0.56    53.89     1.14    59.22     7.03    -4.42     0.00     0.24     6.16     1.37P    2.22R    0.69  
Crawley_Town         22   29   -8       3.99    72.72     0.13    55.95     7.04   -17.35     0.00     0.06     2.39     0.38P    6.89R    2.24  
Exeter               22   27   -1      -2.18    38.13     0.41    59.59     7.21    -1.51     0.01     0.29     7.37     1.74P    2.26R    0.68  
Crewe                22   27   -6      -2.00    39.40    -4.33    58.68     7.39    -7.82     0.01     0.20     5.84     1.41P    3.50R    1.21  
Mansfield            22   26   -7      -1.56    41.69    -3.55    55.08     7.04   -12.32     0.00     0.04     1.88     0.38P    8.10R    3.00  
Morecambe            21   26  -13       3.35    70.28    -2.59    54.20     7.29   -23.49     0.00     0.04     1.62     0.26P   12.23R    4.98  
Leyton_Orient        22   24   -4      -7.03    15.54    -5.35    57.56     7.22    -2.93     0.01     0.11     4.40     1.21P    4.20R    1.39  
Hartlepool           22   23  -10      -0.30    49.68     0.88    48.97     7.00   -20.96     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.03P   30.80R   15.22  
Notts_County         22   22  -12      -2.82    34.64    -3.50    48.55     7.00   -22.31     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P   32.87R   16.74  
Accrington_Stanley   22   21   -9      -8.22    11.44    -7.68    53.03     7.16   -10.22     0.00     0.03     1.11     0.26P   13.22R    5.65  
Cheltenham           22   21  -10      -5.46    21.81    -4.56    49.55     7.19   -16.33     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.08P   27.06R   13.34  
Newport_County       21   17  -10      -5.78    18.55    -0.93    44.88     7.17   -19.65     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   52.15R   33.53  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 December 2016, Eastleigh 2 2 Boreham_Wood; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Tranmere           26   53  +18       6.96    83.11     2.87    89.00     6.10    30.38    33.05    95.20    52.22P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City       25   52  +27       9.57    90.74    14.06    88.46     6.60    38.95    33.50    93.80    47.63P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       25   48  +20       2.64    63.68     3.09    85.99     6.36    34.26    19.88    89.23    41.23P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             24   46  +20       8.57    88.68    13.31    80.23     6.77    26.20     5.05    62.09    15.71P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red          26   46   +9       1.69    58.48    -4.03    80.09     6.33    19.40     3.64    60.28    18.42P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     25   45  +13       3.62    68.34     1.83    80.19     6.58    23.15     4.50    61.71    16.92P    0.00     0.00  
Chester            26   39  +12       0.22    51.27     7.30    67.37     6.38    13.07     0.05     5.12     0.95P    0.04R    0.00  
Aldershot          26   39   +6       3.67    69.39     6.39    67.13     6.31     7.17     0.01     4.05     0.70P    0.05R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       26   38   +5       3.11    66.97     5.52    65.15     6.17     5.08     0.00     2.00     0.30P    0.10R    0.00  
Bromley            26   38   +0       3.48    68.04     1.98    64.11     6.19    -2.42     0.00     1.34     0.18P    0.21R    0.00  
Macclesfield       24   37   +8      -0.49    47.29     1.11    71.62     6.69    14.57     0.26    15.80     3.77P    0.00R    0.00  
Gateshead          26   36  +11      -2.72    35.79     6.62    65.75     6.37    14.59     0.01     3.26     0.64P    0.15R    0.00  
Eastleigh          25   36   +6      -2.92    34.65    -1.07    67.68     6.60    10.18     0.04     5.81     1.28P    0.04R    0.00  
Sutton_United      25   32   -6       3.15    67.23     2.37    56.25     6.49   -12.84     0.00     0.06     0.01P    6.49R    0.22  
Wrexham            26   32  -10      -3.02    34.46    -9.38    59.21     6.21   -10.25     0.00     0.15     0.02P    2.08R    0.02  
Solihull_Moors     25   30   -8       1.67    59.81     2.21    54.19     6.59   -16.13     0.00     0.04     0.01P   11.67R    0.52  
Torquay            25   29   -7      -1.74    41.26    -1.81    55.46     6.36   -10.73     0.00     0.04     0.00P    7.34R    0.26  
Braintree_Town     25   27  -14      -5.60    22.19   -11.58    55.21     6.38   -14.85     0.00     0.04     0.01P    8.53R    0.31  
Maidstone_United   26   26  -18      -0.05    51.09    -1.80    45.16     6.01   -31.74     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.01R    9.37  
Woking             25   24  -12      -8.88    11.67    -8.98    50.54     6.44   -16.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.93R    1.85  
Southport          25   24  -23      -1.35    43.47    -7.81    44.47     6.04   -37.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.99R   13.09  
Guiseley           26   22  -12      -5.92    20.22     0.19    43.34     5.94   -21.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.09R   14.02  
York               26   21  -20     -12.22     4.81   -16.36    46.48     6.32   -23.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.43R    6.97  
North_Ferriby      26   21  -25      -1.70    41.43    -6.01    37.92     5.63   -39.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.86R   53.34