Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 31 October 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 31 October 2016, Stoke 3 1 Swansea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         10   23  +15       2.56    72.35     3.60    79.14     7.80    44.26    40.05    63.98    80.06    90.19    98.18     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          10   23  +13       3.19    76.78     3.46    76.53     7.89    37.45    25.11    49.73    68.94    83.23    96.34     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        10   23  +11       6.32    93.05     6.33    73.12     8.30    30.00    14.26    32.22    51.32    69.23    91.06     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          10   22  +12       4.06    81.94     5.44    73.38     8.05    32.48    14.21    33.00    53.28    71.19    92.29     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        10   20   +9       2.03    67.29     2.59    68.74     7.98    24.60     5.11    15.26    29.54    47.56    81.17     0.00     0.00  
Everton          10   18   +7       1.79    65.62     3.49    59.33     8.17    11.11     0.46     2.07     5.53    11.54    37.41     0.10R    0.00  
Watford          10   15   +1       2.90    75.39     3.44    47.83     7.81    -8.75     0.00     0.03     0.16     0.57     3.99     4.66R    0.51  
Man_Utd          10   15   +1      -0.88    42.21    -2.09    60.75     7.94    11.85     0.51     2.21     6.24    13.77    43.90     0.08R    0.00  
Southampton      10   13   +1      -2.00    32.37    -0.82    57.93     8.05    10.55     0.22     1.06     3.34     8.24    30.87     0.24R    0.01  
Bournemouth      10   12   -2       0.95    60.25     2.77    41.79     7.77   -17.62     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.87    18.51R    3.36  
Leicester        10   12   -4      -1.76    34.72    -3.80    54.53     8.21     1.88     0.07     0.40     1.38     3.67    17.47     0.87R    0.07  
Stoke            10   12   -5      -0.00    51.16    -2.28    43.30     7.77   -17.05     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.15     1.22    13.59R    2.15  
Crystal_Palace   10   11   -2      -1.03    41.61     0.70    41.93     7.60   -14.28     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.76    17.01R    2.79  
Burnley          10   11   -5       0.40    55.18    -0.29    42.70     7.94   -15.17     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.12     1.12    16.17R    2.74  
Middlesbrough    10   10   -2      -1.89    33.83     0.61    40.34     7.77   -13.81     0.00     0.01     0.01     0.06     0.58    22.97R    4.37  
West_Brom        10   10   -4      -1.19    40.37    -0.15    40.83     7.55   -15.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.48    20.82R    3.58  
West_Ham         10   10   -9      -2.99    24.52    -7.27    44.83     8.05   -15.59     0.00     0.02     0.10     0.29     2.02    10.88R    1.63  
Hull             10    7  -15      -1.80    34.73    -6.87    32.92     7.52   -36.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    62.63R   25.76  
Swansea          10    5   -9      -5.52     8.32    -3.76    37.79     7.77   -18.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.22    34.52R    8.98  
Sunderland       10    2  -13      -7.20     2.12    -5.08    29.27     7.50   -31.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.94R   44.04  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 30 October 2016, Birmingham 1 1 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Newcastle       15   34  +20       4.87    81.28     6.60    95.78     8.39    50.69    78.03    93.65    99.74    95.99P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        15   31  +14       5.01    82.69     5.81    84.61     8.36    29.96    14.91    58.75    94.78    71.09P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    15   28   -1       9.76    96.64     2.53    67.51     8.46    -5.59     0.29     2.77    32.29     7.67P    1.28R    0.06  
Norwich         15   27   +2       3.21    71.67    -2.97    77.21     8.98    13.88     4.17    21.52    75.18    37.26P    0.07R    0.00  
Reading         15   25   -1       5.91    86.22     1.25    64.85     8.40    -4.52     0.15     1.48    22.32     5.30P    2.48R    0.14  
Bristol_City    15   24   +6       3.76    75.33     6.72    65.89     8.51     4.97     0.23     2.24    28.18     7.43P    1.75R    0.08  
Birmingham      15   24   +3       2.36    66.83     1.26    65.07     8.44     1.00     0.21     1.78    23.95     6.67P    2.09R    0.11  
Sheff_Wed       15   24   -1       2.61    68.87    -2.38    69.45     8.43     3.65     0.62     4.50    41.92    13.62P    0.62R    0.02  
Leeds_United    15   23   +1       3.07    71.86     1.64    61.22     8.21    -4.82     0.05     0.56    11.98     2.79P    5.20R    0.35  
Brentford       15   22   +7      -0.56    46.12     4.08    70.66     8.73    16.41     0.89     6.84    50.00    18.68P    0.50R    0.02  
Fulham          15   21   +3       0.76    55.82     3.72    61.19     8.55    -1.41     0.05     0.71    13.42     3.27P    5.95R    0.52  
Barnsley        15   20   +3       1.55    61.89     6.51    58.30     8.86    -4.44     0.05     0.44     8.60     2.03P   12.22R    1.26  
Preston         15   20   +0       0.46    54.15     1.19    62.32     8.39     0.29     0.05     0.80    15.66     4.08P    4.26R    0.32  
QPR             15   19   -5      -1.38    40.80    -4.75    59.72     8.39    -7.49     0.02     0.37     9.34     2.46P    8.17R    0.70  
Aston_Villa     15   18   +0      -2.70    31.42    -0.68    61.34     8.71     1.62     0.07     0.85    14.08     4.18P    5.98R    0.49  
Ipswich         15   18   -2      -2.71    30.63    -2.48    60.83     8.36    -0.94     0.04     0.47    11.96     3.19P    6.07R    0.46  
Wolverhampton   15   17   -1      -3.40    26.73    -0.76    59.89     8.49    -0.15     0.03     0.35    10.36     2.73P    7.81R    0.66  
Burton_Albion   15   17   -2       0.59    55.71     3.64    52.18     8.30   -12.33     0.00     0.03     1.62     0.33P   30.60R    5.13  
Derby           15   17   -2      -5.85    14.09    -5.37    65.12     8.32     6.51     0.12     1.68    24.93     8.83P    1.87R    0.11  
Nott'm_Forest   15   15   -5      -4.36    21.64    -3.02    54.30     8.50   -10.17     0.01     0.06     3.10     0.69P   22.49R    3.09  
Cardiff         15   15  -10      -4.37    21.35    -8.31    52.08     8.18   -17.72     0.00     0.03     1.40     0.33P   31.47R    4.79  
Wigan           15   14   -2      -5.48    15.93    -0.65    55.16     8.58    -3.43     0.00     0.10     4.19     1.15P   19.07R    2.63  
Blackburn       15   13   -8      -6.63    10.58    -6.94    50.54     8.25   -15.09     0.00     0.01     0.98     0.22P   37.86R    6.34  
Rotherham       15    7  -19      -6.38     9.32    -6.64    36.58     7.87   -40.88     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   92.18R   72.73  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 October 2016, AFC_Wimbledon 2 3 Bradford; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Scunthorpe       16   34  +20       5.84    84.36    10.55    83.98     8.54    33.37    41.49    62.96    92.58    71.23P    0.01R    0.00  
Bolton           16   31   +9       5.34    81.67     3.59    79.40     8.76    19.81    19.87    38.88    80.81    50.21P    0.03R    0.00  
Bradford         16   29   +8       3.76    74.54     3.22    75.70     8.36    16.26     9.61    22.85    68.61    35.25P    0.11R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        15   28   +8       4.54    78.91     3.64    78.01     8.78    19.23    15.49    33.09    76.86    44.38P    0.08R    0.00  
Northampton      16   24   +4       2.66    67.52     5.21    62.61     8.81    -0.41     0.59     1.98    15.92     4.66P    7.73R    0.66  
Rochdale         16   24   +1       1.08    57.50    -0.41    66.90     8.56     3.57     1.45     4.54    28.55     9.95P    2.60R    0.15  
Peterborough     16   23   +7      -2.28    34.72     1.91    69.10     8.58    14.37     2.64     7.71    39.95    16.22P    1.44R    0.06  
Bristol_Rovers   15   23   +2       4.37    78.06     5.09    63.42     9.01    -1.41     0.69     2.28    18.18     5.20P    7.11R    0.72  
AFC_Wimbledon    16   23   +2       4.72    79.72     7.57    58.37     8.47    -6.85     0.12     0.53     6.62     1.57P   16.71R    1.91  
Fleetwood_Town   15   22   +3       2.15    65.37     3.93    65.46     8.62     4.55     0.88     3.19    24.05     7.68P    3.72R    0.26  
Port_Vale        16   22   -4       2.13    64.98    -0.85    61.71     8.44    -6.14     0.28     1.08    11.89     3.13P    8.96R    0.86  
Walsall          15   21   -1      -1.61    39.08    -4.05    66.66     8.68     3.75     1.41     4.31    28.21    10.48P    2.83R    0.20  
Millwall         15   21   -2      -1.81    37.72    -5.21    70.42     8.86     8.59     3.56     9.76    44.82    19.45P    1.29R    0.10  
Charlton         15   20   +4      -3.02    29.87     0.36    65.70     9.00     8.84     1.34     4.29    26.53    10.49P    3.96R    0.27  
Bury             16   20   -1       0.52    54.58     3.17    56.12     8.42    -9.08     0.08     0.28     3.96     0.92P   23.63R    3.20  
Southend         16   20   -7       1.09    58.54    -2.32    56.42     8.27   -13.90     0.04     0.20     3.65     0.82P   23.22R    3.20  
Oxford_Utd       16   19   -2      -0.79    45.41     1.01    57.24     8.59    -6.22     0.10     0.38     5.41     1.43P   20.24R    2.78  
Gillingham       16   17   -7      -5.00    19.80    -6.84    57.04     8.58    -9.28     0.06     0.33     5.10     1.40P   21.03R    2.92  
Coventry         15   16   -4      -5.33    16.57    -5.26    58.88     8.56    -3.17     0.16     0.65     7.41     2.33P   14.81R    1.63  
MK_Dons          16   16   -5      -6.38    13.99    -5.56    58.36     8.87    -3.24     0.12     0.57     7.41     2.35P   17.30R    2.36  
Swindon          16   16   -7      -5.15    19.04    -5.64    54.00     8.39   -11.93     0.02     0.10     2.23     0.59P   32.16R    5.47  
Oldham           16   15   -9      -2.87    30.56    -3.67    48.97     7.94   -18.29     0.00     0.01     0.37     0.06P   56.50R   14.46  
Chesterfield     15   12   -6      -7.18     9.62    -3.95    49.58     8.56   -13.86     0.00     0.01     0.86     0.19P   52.19R   13.87  
Shrewsbury       16   11  -13      -6.19    13.08    -5.49    42.65     8.06   -28.57     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   82.35R   44.91  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 October 2016, Accrington_Stanley 1 3 Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             15   35  +13       8.80    94.85     4.76    89.44     8.66    30.58    52.87    86.99    98.76    90.39P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             15   31  +12       8.00    92.29     8.36    79.98     8.84    21.64    12.76    52.15    88.81    60.54P    0.01R    0.00  
Doncaster            15   27   +8       0.57    53.22    -1.01    82.39     9.12    27.95    21.55    64.37    92.45    73.25P    0.01R    0.00  
Luton                15   24   +9       0.77    55.27     5.13    70.91     8.80    15.59     2.21    17.16    59.35    27.83P    0.22R    0.06  
Portsmouth           15   24   +7      -0.32    47.74     1.40    76.58     8.69    21.86     6.80    37.39    81.33    50.66P    0.03R    0.01  
Notts_County         15   22   +1       2.60    68.19     2.86    60.68     8.73    -5.36     0.14     2.00    16.79     4.63P    4.26R    1.66  
Crewe                15   22   +1       0.33    52.66    -0.65    66.83     9.17     4.40     0.94     8.46    40.05    15.92P    1.01R    0.34  
Grimsby              15   21   +0       1.95    64.19     2.04    57.02     8.69    -9.52     0.05     0.85     8.76     2.35P    9.36R    3.84  
Accrington_Stanley   15   20   -1      -1.76    38.01    -2.72    64.95     8.78     2.59     0.47     5.14    31.91    11.54P    1.43R    0.47  
Crawley_Town         15   20   -3       2.75    70.22     1.95    56.57     8.40   -11.46     0.02     0.57     7.21     1.63P    9.73R    4.08  
Yeovil               15   20   -5       1.78    63.90    -1.95    57.20     8.42   -11.97     0.03     0.72     8.12     1.95P    8.59R    3.55  
Morecambe            15   20   -9       3.45    74.14    -1.86    54.60     8.58   -22.79     0.03     0.36     4.85     1.03P   16.14R    7.71  
Mansfield            15   19   +0      -1.16    42.42     0.34    58.92     8.54    -3.35     0.06     1.16    12.21     3.45P    5.65R    2.26  
Barnet               15   19   -3      -0.10    50.03    -0.55    58.25     8.75    -8.36     0.07     0.97    11.12     2.85P    7.61R    3.27  
Blackpool            15   18   +4      -5.66    16.42    -0.59    69.13     9.09    16.79     1.46    13.05    52.26    25.50P    0.52R    0.20  
Cheltenham           15   17   -1      -2.75    31.96     0.09    59.23     9.05    -1.21     0.10     1.55    14.52     4.73P    6.50R    2.77  
Stevenage            14   17   -2      -1.33    40.79    -0.72    57.47     8.91    -7.49     0.08     0.99    10.10     2.74P    9.04R    4.18  
Colchester           15   17   -2      -4.38    22.79    -3.06    61.68     9.31     1.05     0.24     3.18    22.17     7.96P    4.28R    1.67  
Exeter               15   16   -3      -3.58    26.46    -1.52    55.86     8.63    -7.08     0.02     0.57     6.99     1.87P   11.54R    5.22  
Hartlepool           15   16   -5      -0.61    46.71     1.37    48.92     8.39   -20.58     0.00     0.06     1.23     0.24P   36.20R   20.69  
Wycombe              15   16   -5      -3.68    25.46    -3.97    58.43     8.48    -4.58     0.03     0.79    10.83     3.16P    6.64R    2.73  
Cambridge_Utd        15   16   -6      -2.99    30.05    -3.77    56.95     8.64    -8.05     0.03     0.59     8.42     2.22P    9.60R    4.08  
Leyton_Orient        15   15   -4      -6.49    12.32    -5.41    58.05     8.70    -3.12     0.04     0.91    10.90     3.38P    7.35R    3.18  
Newport_County       14   11   -6      -4.49    19.66    -0.52    47.03     8.59   -17.55     0.00     0.03     0.86     0.18P   44.29R   28.05  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 October 2016, Aldershot 1 0 Guiseley; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Forest_Green       18   40  +22       5.54    82.98     6.99    91.34     7.57    41.83    44.19    94.69    60.41P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City       18   36  +20       6.36    85.58    12.23    82.62     8.00    32.97    10.16    69.74    22.92P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red          18   36  +15       3.00    68.30     2.51    87.93     7.88    35.97    25.18    87.42    45.27P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere           18   36  +14       3.70    73.08     2.67    84.91     7.63    29.34    13.76    78.69    33.51P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             18   34  +13       7.39    88.74    10.31    75.71     7.96    18.22     1.68    34.24     7.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Aldershot          18   32   +7       7.00    88.22     6.33    69.91     7.77     6.47     0.28    12.21     2.16P    0.08R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     18   31   +3       3.46    71.08    -1.24    76.61     8.03    14.65     2.20    37.84     9.22P    0.01R    0.00  
Eastleigh          18   30  +10       0.75    54.97     2.73    74.99     7.96    19.85     1.38    31.63     8.06P    0.01R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       18   30   +8       5.68    83.75     8.04    69.76     7.68    10.56     0.23    11.60     2.20P    0.07R    0.00  
Macclesfield       18   30   +7       1.02    56.74     0.62    72.17     7.77    12.91     0.58    19.15     4.78P    0.03R    0.00  
Gateshead          18   29  +11       1.34    58.78     6.59    69.66     7.96    14.51     0.27    13.21     2.71P    0.13R    0.00  
Chester            18   26   +5       1.01    56.80     4.58    65.22     7.92     5.86     0.05     4.75     0.88P    0.75R    0.01  
Sutton_United      18   25   +0       3.05    69.75     4.50    60.66     8.18    -4.16     0.01     1.59     0.23P    3.20R    0.04  
Wrexham            18   24   -7      -0.63    46.38    -7.16    63.71     7.68    -4.94     0.03     2.51     0.48P    1.05R    0.01  
Solihull_Moors     18   22   -6       2.20    65.25     1.84    54.26     8.03   -16.45     0.00     0.23     0.02P   14.15R    0.65  
Maidstone_United   18   22   -9       2.61    67.75    -0.22    51.01     7.98   -25.52     0.00     0.07     0.01P   26.55R    1.58  
Bromley            18   21   -7      -0.83    45.44    -2.30    55.58     7.67   -13.79     0.00     0.21     0.04P    9.82R    0.27  
Torquay            18   18   -9      -3.57    28.07    -4.46    50.90     7.55   -17.46     0.00     0.04     0.00    23.64R    1.15  
Southport          18   16  -21      -1.48    40.81    -9.07    43.82     7.28   -38.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.76R    8.05  
York               18   15  -12     -10.45     4.27   -13.12    53.90     8.03   -11.43     0.00     0.15     0.03P   14.18R    0.67  
Woking             18   13  -13      -9.45     5.80    -8.91    49.68     7.86   -17.19     0.00     0.02     0.01P   29.36R    2.27  
Braintree_Town     18   13  -17      -9.73     4.44   -14.24    48.11     7.52   -21.36     0.00     0.01     0.00    36.62R    2.63  
Guiseley           18   10  -12      -8.78     5.44    -2.56    38.16     7.38   -28.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.22R   23.96  
North_Ferriby      18   10  -22      -4.80    18.15    -6.68    33.31     7.20   -44.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.38R   58.70