Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 27 October 2016 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 23 October 2016, Chelsea 4 0 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          9   20  +11       2.04    68.92     1.44    77.00     8.13    39.20    36.81    59.06    74.70    85.59    96.35     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           9   20  +10       2.52    72.60     2.06    74.62     8.11    33.66    24.33    46.41    64.43    78.28    93.73     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         9   20   +9       5.44    90.87     5.51    71.03     8.53    27.01    13.34    29.58    46.42    62.54    85.96     0.00R    0.00  
Chelsea           9   19  +10       2.68    73.62     3.80    70.78     8.25    28.91    12.12    28.29    45.52    62.10    86.15     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         9   19   +9       2.75    74.19     3.11    70.09     8.13    26.25    10.15    24.91    41.49    58.10    84.27     0.00     0.00  
Everton           9   15   +5       0.94    58.78     2.61    57.54     8.42     8.86     0.53     2.15     5.00    10.18    29.93     0.41R    0.03  
Man_Utd           9   14   +1      -0.11    49.07    -1.56    62.05     8.20    13.34     1.50     5.18    11.43    20.75    50.51     0.05R    0.00  
Southampton       9   13   +3      -0.92    40.88     0.71    60.22     8.27    14.00     1.01     3.57     8.47    15.89    42.01     0.15R    0.01  
Watford           9   12   +0       1.77    67.87     3.24    46.61     8.03    -9.21     0.02     0.06     0.19     0.56     3.26     7.86R    1.15  
Bournemouth       9   12   +0       1.91    69.10     4.11    43.84     8.02   -14.29     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.24     1.68    14.14R    2.53  
Crystal_Palace    9   11   +0      -0.16    49.58     1.82    43.72     7.82   -11.28     0.00     0.02     0.08     0.18     1.44    13.10R    2.18  
Leicester         9   11   -4      -1.81    33.43    -4.45    54.18     8.39     0.75     0.17     0.68     1.85     4.44    17.06     1.34R    0.13  
West_Brom         9   10   +0      -0.86    42.78     2.16    43.05     7.80   -10.19     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.17     1.22    14.90R    2.50  
Burnley           9   10   -5       0.14    52.66    -1.06    41.77     8.21   -17.39     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.12     1.09    21.53R    4.76  
West_Ham          9   10   -7      -2.21    29.64    -6.28    46.58     8.31   -12.97     0.02     0.06     0.22     0.63     3.65     8.56R    1.44  
Stoke             9    9   -7      -1.10    40.49    -3.50    40.98     7.94   -20.09     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.09     0.70    23.56R    5.20  
Middlesbrough     9    7   -4      -2.96    23.41    -0.52    38.04     8.08   -16.95     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.37    35.77R   10.11  
Hull              9    7  -14      -1.02    41.91    -6.75    33.84     7.78   -36.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    59.51R   24.87  
Swansea           9    5   -7      -4.68    11.12    -2.63    39.60     8.04   -15.41     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.06     0.52    28.31R    7.35  
Sunderland        9    2  -10      -6.79     2.36    -3.81    30.89     7.71   -28.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    70.81R   37.73  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 22 October 2016, Aston_Villa 1 0 Fulham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Newcastle       14   31  +19       3.68    75.03     6.40    94.14     8.65    49.32    73.49    90.36    99.42    93.79P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        14   28   +9       4.78    82.38     2.92    81.11     8.65    22.29    10.25    38.49    87.19    54.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield    14   28   +4       9.91    97.25     5.51    70.40     8.75     1.78     1.08     6.30    44.18    12.84P    0.59R    0.02  
Norwich         14   27   +7       2.95    70.50    -0.52    81.17     9.30    22.79    11.63    40.45    85.30    54.53P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       14   24   +1       3.42    74.35    -1.12    71.38     8.57     6.55     1.33     7.08    49.83    17.86P    0.35R    0.02  
Bristol_City    14   23   +6       4.07    77.83     6.59    65.91     8.82     4.50     0.35     2.65    27.79     7.77P    2.08R    0.12  
Birmingham      14   23   +3       2.88    71.05     1.44    65.91     8.67     1.85     0.37     2.50    26.66     7.80P    1.87R    0.09  
Reading         14   22   -3       4.86    82.70     0.09    62.61     8.67    -7.42     0.11     0.90    15.47     3.52P    4.96R    0.32  
Preston         14   20   +1       1.31    60.54     1.44    63.65     8.61     1.26     0.18     1.37    18.98     5.23P    3.37R    0.22  
Leeds_United    14   20   -1       2.22    67.07     0.72    59.09     8.38    -7.44     0.04     0.38     7.85     1.78P    8.94R    0.71  
Brentford       14   19   +5      -1.84    36.57     2.63    67.73     8.94    12.29     0.63     4.06    36.06    12.41P    1.43R    0.07  
Barnsley        14   19   +3       1.92    64.65     6.37    58.85     9.27    -4.11     0.07     0.64     9.91     2.48P   11.94R    1.23  
QPR             14   19   -3      -0.32    48.05    -3.26    62.06     8.61    -3.98     0.10     0.90    14.34     3.89P    5.08R    0.38  
Fulham          14   18   -2       0.45    54.39     0.77    57.92     8.72    -8.80     0.03     0.31     6.98     1.64P   12.60R    1.36  
Burton_Albion   14   17   +0       1.25    60.87     4.60    53.98     8.60    -9.44     0.01     0.08     3.01     0.66P   23.77R    3.28  
Aston_Villa     14   17   +0      -2.43    32.77    -0.77    61.07     8.85     0.84     0.08     0.81    13.13     3.92P    6.83R    0.51  
Ipswich         14   17   -2      -1.74    37.28    -1.60    62.15     8.54     0.55     0.07     0.76    14.79     4.17P    4.57R    0.39  
Wolverhampton   14   16   -1      -3.03    28.37    -0.81    60.00     8.71    -0.45     0.05     0.56    10.64     2.94P    8.10R    0.65  
Nott'm_Forest   14   15   -3      -3.56    25.55    -1.93    55.93     8.72    -7.79     0.01     0.17     4.70     1.10P   17.66R    2.00  
Cardiff         14   15   -9      -3.06    28.48    -7.38    54.01     8.52   -15.77     0.01     0.07     2.63     0.65P   24.59R    2.98  
Derby           14   14   -4      -6.84     9.46    -6.56    62.96     8.62     3.74     0.11     1.07    17.38     5.87P    4.11R    0.32  
Blackburn       14   12   -8      -6.09    11.67    -6.70    51.14     8.43   -14.59     0.01     0.03     1.26     0.32P   35.40R    5.47  
Wigan           14   11   -3      -7.01     8.69    -1.44    52.68     8.89    -5.58     0.01     0.08     2.50     0.72P   28.57R    4.62  
Rotherham       14    6  -19      -6.44     8.21    -7.40    35.74     8.03   -42.40     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    93.18R   75.23  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 24 October 2016, Bury 0 2 Bolton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Scunthorpe       15   31  +17       5.33    82.61     9.30    81.96     8.78    29.77    38.11    58.00    89.06    66.48P    0.02R    0.00  
Bolton           15   28   +7       4.62    79.16     2.89    77.42     8.98    17.29    18.54    36.04    75.30    46.71P    0.17R    0.00  
Bradford         15   26   +7       2.52    67.68     2.73    73.92     8.44    15.05     9.04    21.13    63.14    32.76P    0.31R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        14   25   +7       3.27    72.80     3.19    76.53     8.99    18.43    15.91    32.32    72.72    43.18P    0.20R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   14   23   +3       5.56    84.82     5.77    65.09     9.26     0.06     1.81     4.88    25.18     8.80P    6.32R    0.51  
AFC_Wimbledon    15   23   +3       5.76    85.31     7.97    59.69     8.74    -5.58     0.31     1.14    10.08     2.61P   15.32R    1.61  
Port_Vale        15   22   -2       2.75    69.31    -0.03    63.24     8.66    -3.80     0.74     2.47    17.66     5.25P    7.63R    0.65  
Northampton      15   21   +3       1.37    60.10     4.70    60.99     9.13    -1.22     0.68     2.10    13.76     4.60P   12.81R    1.55  
Rochdale         15   21   +0      -0.18    49.25    -0.86    65.78     8.79     3.32     1.69     4.86    26.94    10.01P    4.38R    0.32  
Peterborough     15   20   +6      -3.63    26.32     1.37    67.50     8.87    13.45     3.02     7.93    35.37    15.21P    2.81R    0.16  
Bury             15   20   +0       1.54    61.80     3.45    57.41     8.57    -8.05     0.16     0.56     6.18     1.62P   21.76R    2.63  
Walsall          14   20   -1      -1.21    41.40    -3.98    67.60     8.94     4.64     2.70     7.24    34.62    14.27P    2.94R    0.18  
Fleetwood_Town   14   19   +2       0.90    57.47     3.45    63.52     8.81     3.08     0.96     2.99    19.67     6.78P    7.12R    0.61  
Oxford_Utd       15   19   -1       0.25    52.77     1.46    58.97     8.89    -4.59     0.34     1.04     9.04     2.78P   17.48R    2.33  
Southend         15   19   -7       1.82    64.16    -1.85    57.00     8.55   -13.67     0.10     0.41     5.01     1.19P   24.22R    3.70  
Millwall         14   18   -3      -3.10    28.80    -5.73    68.25     9.13     6.72     3.35     8.83    37.93    16.75P    2.90R    0.19  
Charlton         14   17   +3      -4.12    22.69     0.14    64.17     9.30     8.03     1.52     4.44    23.92     9.84P    6.93R    0.72  
Gillingham       15   17   -6      -3.88    25.12    -6.27    58.41     8.85    -8.16     0.27     0.87     8.09     2.53P   19.20R    2.44  
MK_Dons          15   16   -4      -5.42    17.64    -5.23    59.37     9.18    -2.82     0.35     1.30    10.59     3.75P   16.94R    2.35  
Swindon          15   16   -4      -4.88    19.59    -4.44    56.14     8.65    -7.66     0.10     0.41     4.90     1.43P   26.10R    3.88  
Coventry         14   15   -4      -5.03    17.23    -5.35    58.73     8.79    -3.93     0.26     0.92     8.40     2.82P   17.53R    2.11  
Oldham           15   15   -8      -1.98    36.42    -3.35    49.97     8.15   -17.84     0.00     0.03     0.77     0.17P   54.19R   12.91  
Chesterfield     14   12   -5      -6.37    12.05    -3.77    50.86     8.77   -12.97     0.02     0.09     1.57     0.40P   48.92R   12.15  
Shrewsbury       15   10  -13      -5.85    13.36    -5.56    42.37     8.31   -29.55     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   83.81R   49.00  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 October 2016, Newport_County 2 2 Barnet; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             14   32  +12       7.66    92.83     4.49    87.69     8.91    29.49    46.41    82.52    97.62    86.82P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             14   28  +10       7.14    90.64     7.52    78.34     9.09    19.64    11.23    45.23    83.36    54.03P    0.02R    0.00  
Doncaster            14   26   +8       1.38    59.35    -0.41    83.30     9.45    28.68    27.23    67.51    92.49    75.46P    0.01R    0.00  
Luton                14   23   +9       1.13    58.53     5.10    72.05     9.05    16.75     3.46    21.51    62.25    31.68P    0.16R    0.02  
Portsmouth           14   21   +6      -1.44    39.45     1.13    74.83     8.89    20.73     5.72    31.01    73.73    43.87P    0.06R    0.01  
Notts_County         14   21   +1       2.83    70.41     2.69    60.72     8.97    -6.10     0.24     2.37    16.50     4.87P    4.32R    1.59  
Accrington_Stanley   14   20   +1      -0.55    46.45    -1.00    68.13     8.99     7.30     1.32    10.40    44.04    18.66P    0.64R    0.18  
Grimsby              14   20   +0       2.27    66.81     2.12    57.24     8.99    -9.91     0.10     1.13     9.22     2.67P    8.76R    3.38  
Crawley_Town         14   20   -1       3.48    75.21     2.93    58.26     8.58    -9.05     0.08     1.01     9.76     2.39P    6.47R    2.40  
Morecambe            14   20   -6       4.07    78.04    -0.16    57.66     9.00   -16.99     0.09     1.02     9.48     2.33P    9.11R    3.70  
Mansfield            14   19   +1       0.01    50.72     1.08    60.96     8.76    -1.34     0.18     2.33    16.70     5.32P    3.49R    1.10  
Crewe                14   19   -1      -0.78    44.90    -1.87    63.50     9.47    -0.18     0.60     5.08    26.57    10.01P    2.70R    0.97  
Yeovil               14   19   -5       2.13    66.74    -1.92    57.82     8.61   -11.72     0.08     0.90     8.92     2.35P    7.51R    2.79  
Blackpool            14   17   +4      -5.26    16.91    -0.51    69.94     9.23    17.44     2.21    15.68    54.08    27.91P    0.43R    0.11  
Colchester           14   17   -1      -3.50    26.57    -2.80    62.99     9.47     1.89     0.55     4.67    25.40     9.94P    3.02R    1.04  
Cheltenham           14   16   -1      -2.55    32.52    -0.18    59.18     9.14    -1.74     0.15     1.75    13.54     4.44P    6.03R    2.16  
Hartlepool           14   16   -4       0.40    54.23     1.72    50.11     8.65   -19.75     0.01     0.11     1.89     0.39P   29.77R   14.96  
Barnet               14   16   -4      -1.24    41.72    -0.84    56.55     8.94    -9.46     0.05     0.76     7.78     2.23P   10.30R    4.26  
Cambridge_Utd        14   16   -5      -2.04    35.78    -3.32    58.41     8.83    -6.98     0.06     1.13    10.83     3.23P    6.63R    2.48  
Leyton_Orient        14   15   -2      -5.60    14.75    -4.11    60.58     8.88     0.57     0.16     2.12    16.41     5.82P    3.86R    1.41  
Wycombe              14   15   -5      -3.54    25.41    -4.38    57.79     8.67    -5.97     0.05     0.90     9.25     2.78P    7.21R    2.71  
Stevenage            13   14   -3      -2.86    29.51    -1.52    55.08     9.09    -9.55     0.04     0.60     6.39     1.77P   13.52R    5.92  
Exeter               14   13   -6      -4.47    20.24    -3.42    52.98     8.79   -12.01     0.01     0.26     3.52     0.96P   18.53R    8.71  
Newport_County       13    8   -8      -5.96    10.58    -2.33    43.86     8.66   -21.73     0.00     0.01     0.29     0.07P   57.44R   40.11  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 25 October 2016, Bromley 0 2 Dover_Athletic; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Forest_Green       17   39  +22       6.17    86.27     7.32    92.15     7.73    42.59    50.23    95.24    64.63P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red          17   35  +15       3.11    69.71     2.13    87.98     8.00    35.72    26.32    87.32    46.44P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City       17   33  +17       5.52    83.07    10.54    79.53     8.20    27.54     5.49    54.59    15.73P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere           17   33  +11       2.74    68.31     0.68    81.78     7.81    24.17     7.24    64.88    24.14P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             17   31   +9       6.83    87.89     7.94    72.69     8.11    12.04     0.82    21.78     4.32P    0.04R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     17   31   +6       4.17    76.04     0.65    79.37     8.11    20.03     4.52    52.34    14.46P    0.01R    0.00  
Eastleigh          17   30  +14       1.12    57.66     4.98    77.72     8.12    25.90     3.25    45.66    13.38P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield       17   30   +8       2.33    65.46     1.53    74.33     7.90    15.11     1.11    28.06     7.20P    0.00R    0.00  
Aldershot          17   29   +6       5.96    85.14     6.18    68.86     7.93     6.36     0.23    10.21     1.84P    0.21R    0.00  
Gateshead          17   28  +11       1.90    62.94     6.81    70.54     8.07    15.32     0.43    15.90     3.43P    0.10R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       17   27   +7       4.59    79.71     7.79    68.39     7.84    10.06     0.16     9.45     1.72P    0.17R    0.00  
Chester            17   26   +8       1.90    63.19     6.69    67.87     8.07    11.00     0.14     9.48     1.79P    0.32R    0.00  
Sutton_United      17   24   +0       3.32    71.95     4.26    60.03     8.37    -5.61     0.02     1.60     0.24P    3.75R    0.08  
Wrexham            17   23   -7      -0.50    47.18    -7.51    63.43     7.90    -5.84     0.03     2.70     0.55P    1.25R    0.01  
Solihull_Moors     17   19   -7       0.51    54.95     1.01    51.33     8.27   -19.80     0.00     0.14     0.01P   23.87R    1.75  
Maidstone_United   17   19  -10       1.10    58.70    -0.91    48.50     8.15   -28.03     0.00     0.05     0.00P   36.87R    3.71  
Bromley            17   18   -8      -2.07    37.09    -2.80    53.62     7.78   -15.32     0.00     0.13     0.01P   14.30R    0.75  
Torquay            17   18   -8      -2.16    36.11    -3.46    53.59     7.75   -14.38     0.00     0.09     0.01P   14.09R    0.71  
York               17   14  -12      -9.77     4.82   -12.69    54.86     8.27   -10.41     0.00     0.28     0.07P   11.90R    0.64  
Woking             17   13  -12      -8.58     7.20    -8.77    50.79     8.00   -16.49     0.00     0.06     0.01P   24.25R    1.84  
Braintree_Town     17   13  -16      -8.31     6.94   -13.13    50.75     7.77   -18.54     0.00     0.03     0.00P   24.36R    1.70  
Southport          17   13  -22      -3.26    28.22   -10.20    41.10     7.38   -40.75     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.85R   16.84  
Guiseley           17   10  -11      -8.10     6.59    -2.51    39.12     7.52   -28.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.57R   22.63  
North_Ferriby      17   10  -21      -3.98    22.05    -6.51    35.03     7.44   -42.39     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.08R   49.32