Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 15 October 2016 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 October 2016, Arsenal 3 2 Swansea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          8   19  +11       2.83    77.36     1.92    78.56     8.41    41.49    38.12    61.43    76.92    86.98    96.97     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           8   19  +10       3.46    80.85     2.77    76.86     8.33    37.36    28.56    52.73    70.27    82.69    95.66     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         8   18   +9       3.43    80.79     3.49    71.71     8.43    28.55    11.16    27.51    45.49    62.61    86.84     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool         7   16   +8       5.02    91.98     5.82    71.45     9.05    29.18    12.43    28.01    45.27    61.28    84.73     0.01R    0.00  
Chelsea           8   16   +6       1.86    67.41     1.14    67.69     8.59    22.49     5.19    14.74    27.69    43.33    74.19     0.01R    0.00  
Everton           8   15   +6       2.25    71.42     3.53    59.79     8.64    11.19     0.82     2.95     7.21    14.18    38.04     0.25R    0.02  
Man_Utd           7   13   +5       0.58    55.55     0.77    65.30     8.70    19.78     3.07     9.80    19.70    32.72    64.47     0.04R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace    8   11   +2       0.51    56.15     2.79    45.12     8.20    -9.30     0.01     0.03     0.11     0.37     2.59    10.29R    1.77  
Bournemouth       8   11   +0       2.01    71.05     3.83    43.55     8.32   -16.08     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.27     1.78    15.60R    3.28  
West_Brom         8   10   +1      -0.17    49.47     2.05    43.59     8.03   -10.88     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.18     1.54    13.68R    2.63  
Southampton       7    9   +1      -1.86    29.90    -0.89    58.43     8.79    11.09     0.53     2.32     5.68    11.46    32.70     0.47R    0.04  
Watford           7    8   -1       0.36    55.98     2.21    44.43     8.61   -12.41     0.01     0.04     0.13     0.34     2.30    13.58R    2.95  
Leicester         8    8   -6      -2.71    24.58    -5.33    52.53     8.67    -1.34     0.08     0.37     1.16     2.83    12.53     2.41R    0.32  
Burnley           7    7   -4      -0.83    42.20    -1.15    40.40     8.64   -18.07     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.10     0.92    26.94R    7.65  
West_Ham          8    7   -8      -3.38    19.08    -6.55    45.08     8.64   -14.35     0.01     0.04     0.14     0.47     2.76    12.46R    2.66  
Hull              8    7  -12       0.03    52.94    -5.17    36.48     8.21   -32.41     0.00     0.01     0.01     0.03     0.22    45.38R   16.51  
Middlesbrough     7    6   -3      -1.97    30.18    -0.65    38.84     8.61   -18.45     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.08     0.68    32.69R   10.08  
Stoke             8    6   -9      -2.41    26.60    -4.87    38.48     8.19   -23.89     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.36    34.04R   10.17  
Swansea           8    4   -7      -4.17    12.25    -2.29    40.28     8.38   -15.35     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.67    26.07R    7.04  
Sunderland        8    2   -9      -5.87     3.81    -3.39    31.70     8.10   -28.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    66.09R   34.88  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 October 2016, Aston_Villa 1 1 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         12   26   +8       5.01    84.70     0.80    85.05     9.80    27.25    27.13    56.26    90.52    66.60P    0.01R    0.00  
Newcastle       12   25  +14       2.42    67.81     4.43    90.39     9.24    43.51    54.89    78.61    97.54    85.56P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    11   25   +6      10.45    98.96     6.75    72.28     9.50     4.88     2.91     9.91    50.68    17.26P    0.45R    0.02  
Brighton        12   22   +7       2.26    68.01     1.97    77.96     9.09    20.54     7.95    24.30    75.59    40.50P    0.05R    0.00  
Bristol_City    12   20   +6       3.81    78.11     6.67    65.99     9.27     4.71     0.61     2.93    26.94     7.74P    2.16R    0.18  
Birmingham      12   20   +3       3.07    73.82     2.21    66.98     9.00     3.86     0.75     3.23    29.35     8.92P    1.53R    0.11  
Reading         12   19   -3       4.66    83.61     0.25    62.80     9.14    -6.89     0.25     1.34    15.53     3.87P    4.78R    0.54  
Brentford       12   18   +7      -0.44    46.37     4.17    71.65     9.47    17.84     2.68     9.67    51.18    20.87P    0.50R    0.03  
Fulham          12   17   -1       1.53    62.82     0.75    58.94     9.21    -9.30     0.11     0.61     8.67     2.04P   10.40R    1.56  
Sheff_Wed       11   17   -1       1.05    59.47    -2.26    68.15     9.39     4.00     1.08     4.54    34.55    11.74P    1.42R    0.12  
Barnsley        12   16   +3       1.12    59.80     5.54    56.11     9.59    -8.64     0.07     0.40     5.88     1.44P   17.77R    3.44  
Wolverhampton   12   16   +1      -0.76    44.40     0.58    63.67     9.26     2.68     0.34     1.69    19.31     5.65P    3.91R    0.42  
Leeds_United    12   16   -2       0.81    57.48    -0.34    57.55     8.94    -9.12     0.04     0.30     6.10     1.37P   12.52R    1.96  
QPR             12   16   -3      -0.81    44.02    -3.50    61.66     9.20    -4.50     0.19     1.03    13.93     3.92P    5.96R    0.80  
Nott'm_Forest   12   15   -1      -1.08    41.94    -0.28    60.10     9.25    -3.61     0.14     0.70    10.89     2.80P    8.28R    1.04  
Burton_Albion   12   14   +0       0.66    57.14     4.41    52.93     9.08   -10.72     0.01     0.11     2.55     0.55P   26.53R    5.85  
Ipswich         12   14   -1      -2.32    32.00    -1.11    61.79     8.99     1.27     0.15     0.91    13.78     4.05P    5.06R    0.59  
Preston         12   14   -2      -1.61    37.33    -1.12    58.36     8.95    -4.78     0.08     0.38     7.30     1.84P   10.57R    1.52  
Derby           12   13   -3      -5.45    12.92    -5.94    65.69     9.06     6.13     0.51     2.45    25.80     9.52P    2.00R    0.19  
Aston_Villa     12   11   -2      -5.06    14.91    -1.76    57.05     9.33    -2.28     0.06     0.35     6.51     1.90P   14.28R    2.41  
Cardiff         12   11  -10      -4.44    17.99    -8.50    51.99     9.01   -18.20     0.01     0.06     1.85     0.40P   31.04R    6.80  
Wigan           12   10   -2      -5.69    12.12    -0.91    54.67     9.39    -4.26     0.02     0.18     4.18     1.12P   20.83R    4.36  
Blackburn       12    9   -8      -6.38     8.53    -6.67    50.69     8.98   -15.18     0.00     0.03     1.37     0.34P   35.04R    8.34  
Rotherham       12    6  -16      -4.77    14.18    -6.18    38.63     8.53   -39.18     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    84.90R   59.73  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 October 2016, AFC_Wimbledon 0 0 Swindon; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Scunthorpe       13   28  +16       5.57    85.91     8.98    82.12     9.12    29.40    40.63    59.36    88.11    67.17P    0.04R    0.00  
Bradford         13   24   +7       3.97    78.75     3.77    75.45     8.81    16.28    13.63    28.44    68.21    39.52P    0.24R    0.01  
Bolton           13   22   +3       2.27    67.10     0.17    71.51     9.39     9.49     7.40    16.70    50.65    25.55P    1.35R    0.10  
Rochdale         13   21   +5       1.45    61.34     2.45    70.02     9.13    10.59     5.50    12.95    44.63    20.58P    1.66R    0.11  
Sheff_Utd        12   21   +4       2.65    70.72     1.25    73.46     9.32    12.77    10.33    22.44    59.08    31.85P    0.76R    0.05  
Bury             13   20   +3       3.80    77.52     5.81    62.50     9.06    -1.41     0.94     2.84    16.90     5.40P    9.29R    1.14  
Port_Vale        13   20   -2       3.67    77.12     0.20    64.45     8.99    -3.14     1.28     3.86    21.89     7.43P    6.57R    0.72  
Bristol_Rovers   12   19   +1       4.42    81.51     3.87    61.66     9.64    -5.23     0.94     2.90    15.99     5.39P   12.97R    2.08  
Northampton      13   18   +4       0.61    55.30     4.82    60.37     9.51    -0.82     0.74     2.17    13.54     4.51P   14.50R    2.44  
Oxford_Utd       13   18   +0       1.41    61.52     1.62    60.02     9.28    -4.55     0.59     1.77    11.57     3.83P   15.51R    2.59  
Peterborough     13   17   +4      -2.60    31.28     1.37    68.31     9.27    13.16     4.04    10.17    38.93    17.96P    2.83R    0.31  
AFC_Wimbledon    13   17   +1       2.44    69.39     5.94    53.78     9.03   -12.09     0.10     0.34     3.42     0.88P   36.44R    8.76  
Fleetwood_Town   12   16   +2       0.21    52.23     2.82    62.31     9.24     1.61     0.98     2.87    16.94     5.97P    9.83R    1.36  
Walsall          12   16   -3      -2.18    32.79    -5.54    65.09     9.35     0.72     1.87     5.29    25.45    10.27P    6.12R    0.68  
Charlton         12   15   +3      -3.49    24.18    -0.04    64.73     9.72     7.72     2.33     5.94    26.03    11.73P    6.78R    0.89  
MK_Dons          13   15   -1      -3.89    23.26    -2.57    64.90     9.58     5.95     2.03     5.47    25.95    11.08P    6.67R    0.81  
Millwall         12   15   -2      -3.15    26.67    -4.40    69.76     9.49    10.58     5.72    13.21    44.29    21.91P    2.36R    0.27  
Gillingham       13   15   -6      -3.07    28.02    -6.13    59.27     9.25    -8.15     0.44     1.47    10.10     3.45P   17.53R    2.97  
Southend         13   15  -10       0.36    54.26    -4.99    52.74     8.71   -21.26     0.04     0.16     2.09     0.51P   42.03R   11.29  
Swindon          13   13   -5      -4.85    17.37    -4.97    55.70     8.96    -9.01     0.14     0.48     4.90     1.49P   27.96R    5.68  
Chesterfield     12   12   -1      -4.50    18.37    -1.10    55.44     9.12    -6.32     0.17     0.58     5.20     1.57P   28.92R    6.07  
Oldham           13   12   -8      -2.44    31.67    -3.50    49.59     8.52   -18.10     0.01     0.04     0.82     0.18P   55.09R   17.80  
Shrewsbury       13   10   -8      -4.44    18.74    -2.82    47.41     8.80   -20.70     0.02     0.04     0.59     0.14P   64.17R   27.19  
Coventry         12    9   -7      -7.38     5.64    -7.01    55.08     9.22    -7.48     0.15     0.53     4.71     1.61P   30.37R    6.68  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 October 2016, Accrington_Stanley 2 1 Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             13   29  +10       6.77    90.91     3.61    85.74     9.05    26.90    34.80    74.62    95.77    80.72P    0.00R    0.00  
Doncaster            13   26  +10       2.30    66.22     1.01    85.57     9.42    31.90    36.53    74.53    95.10    81.06P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle             13   25   +9       5.87    87.18     7.06    76.26     9.35    18.02     7.83    34.87    76.28    44.45P    0.06R    0.01  
Luton                13   22   +9       1.77    63.20     5.45    73.04     9.32    17.68     4.55    23.92    65.41    34.38P    0.17R    0.04  
Portsmouth           13   21   +7       0.10    50.69     2.31    77.75     9.17    24.09    10.33    42.33    81.86    54.41P    0.02R    0.00  
Grimsby              13   20   +1       3.31    73.88     2.64    59.55     9.27    -7.59     0.23     2.02    14.02     4.23P    5.90R    2.33  
Accrington_Stanley   13   19   +1      -0.06    50.17    -0.83    68.74     9.22     7.63     1.69    11.44    46.21    20.13P    0.56R    0.18  
Crewe                13   19   +0       0.55    54.91    -0.93    66.50     9.56     3.28     1.18     8.52    37.15    15.35P    1.24R    0.43  
Crawley_Town         13   19   -1       3.66    76.83     2.74    58.39     8.87    -9.50     0.08     1.13    10.44     2.74P    6.90R    2.75  
Morecambe            13   19   -6       4.18    79.51    -0.74    56.91     9.08   -18.95     0.05     0.84     8.24     1.97P   10.74R    4.69  
Mansfield            13   18   +1       0.08    51.24     0.65    60.85     8.89    -1.95     0.19     2.21    16.36     5.22P    3.70R    1.36  
Notts_County         13   18   +0       1.09    58.94     1.45    57.74     9.14    -9.33     0.08     1.25    10.28     2.95P    8.44R    3.64  
Colchester           13   16   -1      -2.64    31.23    -2.06    64.13     9.75     3.22     0.76     5.84    29.20    11.67P    2.68R    1.03  
Hartlepool           13   16   -2       1.22    60.72     2.85    52.20     8.84   -16.37     0.02     0.26     3.14     0.73P   21.89R   10.90  
Yeovil               13   16   -6       0.56    55.60    -2.80    54.92     8.81   -14.63     0.03     0.46     5.38     1.41P   13.68R    6.00  
Wycombe              13   15   -3      -2.46    31.93    -2.73    60.70     8.95    -1.79     0.16     2.02    15.99     5.30P    4.11R    1.54  
Blackpool            13   14   +2      -6.31    11.52    -1.67    66.82     9.36    13.21     1.08     8.73    40.18    18.56P    1.08R    0.40  
Stevenage            12   14   -2      -1.78    36.67    -0.98    56.73     9.29    -8.11     0.07     0.94     9.00     2.56P   10.51R    4.72  
Cheltenham           13   13   -2      -3.90    22.97    -0.78    56.80     9.41    -3.84     0.10     1.09     9.54     3.06P   10.46R    4.60  
Exeter               13   13   -5      -3.38    25.81    -2.82    55.20     9.07    -9.65     0.04     0.59     6.13     1.75P   13.34R    6.19  
Cambridge_Utd        13   13   -6      -3.54    24.63    -4.12    55.98     9.04    -9.17     0.03     0.64     7.17     2.09P   11.60R    5.04  
Leyton_Orient        13   12   -4      -6.73     9.44    -5.36    58.24     9.11    -2.40     0.10     1.32    11.24     3.86P    7.01R    2.93  
Barnet               12   12   -6      -2.26    33.13    -2.48    53.81     9.37   -13.66     0.03     0.39     5.11     1.23P   18.08R    9.11  
Newport_County       11    7   -6      -4.96    13.13    -1.48    45.85     9.16   -18.99     0.00     0.04     0.78     0.19P   47.83R   32.10  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 October 2016, Aldershot 2 0 Solihull_Moors; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Forest_Green       15   33  +18       4.76    81.33     6.17    89.67     8.21    40.04    41.84    92.53    58.25P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red          15   31  +14       2.87    69.62     2.40    88.27     8.47    37.03    34.27    89.08    53.14P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City       15   29  +15       5.21    83.43     9.84    78.50     8.67    25.78     6.22    53.98    16.53P    0.02R    0.00  
Barrow             15   29   +9       7.27    90.97     7.45    72.59     8.57    10.70     1.46    26.17     5.72P    0.15R    0.00  
Macclesfield       15   28   +8       2.94    70.30     1.27    75.45     8.42    15.62     2.84    38.41    10.99P    0.05R    0.00  
Aldershot          15   28   +7       6.94    90.02     6.10    69.56     8.36     5.60     0.59    15.86     2.98P    0.32R    0.00  
Tranmere           15   27   +7       1.19    58.69    -0.82    79.02     8.22    20.98     5.83    55.80    20.29P    0.01R    0.00  
Eastleigh          15   26  +11       0.79    55.83     3.35    76.06     8.61    22.27     3.50    42.82    13.02P    0.04R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     15   25   -1       2.91    69.98    -3.17    73.59     8.70     8.61     1.78    30.29     7.39P    0.16R    0.00  
Gateshead          15   24   +9       1.34    59.69     5.87    69.04     8.58    12.81     0.64    16.00     3.58P    0.47R    0.00  
Chester            15   24   +8       2.19    65.78     6.09    67.48     8.58     9.24     0.41    12.11     2.59P    0.75R    0.02  
Boreham_Wood       15   24   +8       4.37    79.90     8.91    68.86     8.26    11.97     0.44    14.28     3.00P    0.35R    0.00  
Sutton_United      15   22   +0       4.20    78.01     4.34    61.96     8.93    -3.75     0.09     4.09     0.79P    4.24R    0.06  
Solihull_Moors     15   19   -3       1.58    62.12     2.32    55.33     8.82   -13.57     0.01     0.87     0.15P   16.00R    0.79  
Wrexham            15   19   -8      -1.06    42.98    -7.48    62.90     8.29    -5.75     0.06     3.63     0.76P    2.81R    0.06  
Bromley            15   18   -5      -0.34    48.81    -1.34    56.69     8.30   -11.73     0.01     0.79     0.14P   11.05R    0.39  
Maidstone_United   15   18   -8       2.04    65.55    -0.24    50.35     8.83   -25.78     0.00     0.23     0.02P   34.90R    2.98  
Torquay            15   17   -5      -1.34    41.08    -1.77    55.60     8.21   -11.15     0.00     0.54     0.11P   13.32R    0.49  
York               15   13  -10      -8.33     6.51   -11.17    58.78     8.86    -5.04     0.03     2.01     0.44P    8.09R    0.36  
Woking             15   12  -11      -6.72    11.21    -7.59    53.89     8.55   -13.13     0.01     0.40     0.06P   19.23R    1.10  
Braintree_Town     15   10  -12      -9.94     2.72   -11.32    50.56     8.17   -14.30     0.00     0.10     0.04P   30.27R    1.92  
North_Ferriby      15   10  -19      -2.74    29.92    -6.35    35.64     7.77   -44.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.71R   44.08  
Guiseley           15    9   -8      -7.47     6.97    -1.38    40.04     7.88   -26.97     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.75R   19.40  
Southport          15    9  -24      -4.29    19.48   -11.47    38.41     7.74   -45.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.29R   28.35