Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 6 October 2016 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 October 2016, Burnley 0 1 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          7   18  +11       3.63    85.11     2.60    80.19     8.57    43.47    43.63    67.25    81.40    90.14    97.70     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         7   17   +9       4.20    88.37     4.10    72.78     8.70    29.51    12.83    31.37    50.57    67.46    88.86     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           7   16   +9       2.83    77.39     3.45    76.40     8.60    37.86    25.14    49.68    68.33    81.29    94.68     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         7   16   +8       4.99    91.49     5.87    71.37     9.06    28.99    10.97    26.68    44.45    61.04    84.80     0.01R    0.00  
Everton           7   14   +6       2.13    71.64     2.59    58.71     8.94     8.64     0.65     2.52     6.59    12.74    34.82     0.34R    0.03  
Man_Utd           7   13   +5       0.73    57.24     1.02    65.25     8.78    19.57     2.81     9.35    19.38    33.17    64.93     0.04R    0.01  
Chelsea           7   13   +3       0.96    59.72    -0.71    65.63     8.90    18.59     3.28    10.07    20.59    34.69    65.99     0.03R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace    7   11   +3       1.73    69.21     3.55    46.96     8.54    -7.68     0.02     0.09     0.33     0.87     4.64     7.49R    1.22  
West_Brom         7    9   +1      -0.24    48.34     1.40    42.72     8.20   -12.64     0.00     0.02     0.06     0.18     1.38    16.21R    3.40  
Southampton       7    9   +1      -1.85    30.27    -0.87    58.12     8.84    10.61     0.46     2.01     5.29    11.08    32.23     0.44R    0.06  
Watford           7    8   -1       0.31    55.48     2.12    44.29     8.61   -12.52     0.01     0.03     0.13     0.43     2.42    13.71R    3.22  
Leicester         7    8   -3      -1.94    30.56    -3.33    54.91     9.05     3.20     0.20     0.83     2.59     5.93    20.86     1.38R    0.21  
Bournemouth       7    8   -5       1.21    65.59     0.10    39.57     8.40   -24.58     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.10     0.66    29.95R    9.17  
Burnley           7    7   -4      -0.62    44.57    -0.87    40.92     8.67   -17.20     0.00     0.02     0.05     0.16     1.19    24.52R    7.07  
Hull              7    7   -7       0.52    58.45    -1.92    40.41     8.77   -22.19     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.13     1.05    27.56R    8.45  
Middlesbrough     7    6   -3      -2.01    29.90    -0.68    38.51     8.58   -18.88     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.09     0.59    33.60R   10.72  
Swansea           7    4   -6      -3.40    16.41    -2.45    40.76     8.52   -15.69     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.11     0.85    24.36R    6.89  
West_Ham          7    4   -9      -5.06     7.27    -7.62    42.70     8.95   -16.56     0.01     0.04     0.11     0.35     1.96    19.14R    5.34  
Stoke             7    3  -11      -3.65    13.15    -6.21    36.17     8.39   -26.87     0.00     0.01     0.01     0.03     0.28    44.82R   17.61  
Sunderland        7    2   -7      -4.94     5.84    -2.15    33.55     8.40   -25.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11    56.39R   26.63  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 October 2016, Birmingham 1 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Huddersfield    11   25   +6      10.49    98.92     6.79    72.48     9.47     5.16     3.22    10.14    49.64    17.00P    0.40R    0.03  
Norwich         11   23   +6       4.40    82.29     0.59    84.46     9.94    27.08    27.20    52.48    88.46    63.54P    0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle       11   22  +12       1.68    63.28     3.88    88.58     9.53    41.13    47.25    70.89    95.33    79.90P    0.00R    0.00  
Brighton        11   21   +7       2.96    74.32     2.47    79.37     9.25    21.96    11.55    29.39    78.27    44.57P    0.04R    0.00  
Bristol_City    11   20   +7       4.82    84.77     7.06    67.61     9.55     6.14     1.17     4.31    31.50     9.57P    1.48R    0.13  
Birmingham      11   20   +5       3.98    80.42     3.59    68.97     9.26     6.89     1.61     5.28    35.74    11.89P    0.94R    0.08  
Brentford       11   18   +9       0.34    52.99     5.07    72.58     9.72    18.98     4.03    12.03    52.95    22.77P    0.43R    0.04  
Reading         11   18   -3       4.82    85.66    -0.07    62.74     9.32    -7.62     0.36     1.35    14.93     3.66P    5.11R    0.61  
Sheff_Wed       11   17   -1       1.02    59.01    -2.31    68.27     9.32     4.21     1.25     4.46    33.01    11.57P    1.23R    0.12  
Barnsley        11   16   +5       2.21    68.71     7.03    59.29    10.06    -3.35     0.29     1.08    10.67     2.95P   11.02R    1.83  
Leeds_United    11   16   -1       1.77    65.54     0.11    58.27     9.04    -9.11     0.10     0.40     6.54     1.54P   10.71R    1.69  
Wolverhampton   11   15   +1      -0.52    46.20     0.43    63.83     9.41     2.43     0.43     1.79    18.90     5.67P    3.70R    0.39  
QPR             11   15   -3      -0.25    48.51    -3.22    62.59     9.33    -3.61     0.33     1.39    15.19     4.51P    4.67R    0.65  
Fulham          11   14   -3       0.19    52.52    -0.92    55.40     9.41   -14.24     0.05     0.24     4.29     0.99P   18.94R    3.97  
Burton_Albion   11   13   +0       0.62    56.71     3.89    52.94     9.36   -11.46     0.02     0.10     2.55     0.53P   26.18R    6.34  
Ipswich         11   13   -1      -1.99    33.72    -1.12    62.32     9.15     1.49     0.25     1.05    14.23     4.34P    4.71R    0.64  
Preston         11   13   -2      -1.61    37.10    -1.58    57.82     9.05    -5.83     0.08     0.32     6.06     1.47P   11.34R    1.81  
Nott'm_Forest   11   12   -3      -2.23    32.05    -1.60    57.53     9.39    -6.92     0.10     0.41     6.54     1.73P   12.97R    2.19  
Aston_Villa     11   10   -2      -4.51    16.38    -1.50    57.79     9.67    -1.79     0.11     0.51     7.55     2.29P   12.64R    2.23  
Derby           11   10   -4      -6.48     7.83    -6.09    64.27     9.33     5.46     0.53     2.01    20.37     7.59P    3.25R    0.35  
Wigan           11    9   -2      -5.03    13.78    -0.39    55.45     9.65    -3.85     0.07     0.27     4.66     1.29P   18.36R    4.03  
Blackburn       11    8   -8      -6.16     8.16    -6.83    51.45     9.14   -14.65     0.01     0.06     1.59     0.39P   31.29R    7.15  
Cardiff         11    8  -11      -5.85     9.59    -9.19    49.87     9.11   -19.82     0.00     0.04     1.01     0.25P   38.62R   10.41  
Rotherham       11    6  -14      -4.36    15.84    -6.11    39.25     8.76   -38.69     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   81.96R   55.29  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 October 2016, AFC_Wimbledon 2 0 Gillingham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Scunthorpe       11   24  +15       5.18    86.34     9.30    81.94     9.67    30.09    41.41    59.43    87.26    67.17P    0.08R    0.01  
Bradford         11   21   +6       4.29    82.34     3.63    75.94     9.21    16.27    15.97    32.13    70.40    42.58P    0.29R    0.01  
Bury             11   20   +7       5.36    87.11     7.83    66.15     9.70     3.86     2.98     7.76    30.77    12.21P    5.37R    0.57  
Sheff_Utd        11   18   +0       2.00    66.58    -1.33    69.92     9.61     5.97     5.92    13.99    44.53    21.54P    2.39R    0.23  
Northampton      11   17   +6       1.53    62.92     5.47    62.36     9.97     1.51     1.64     4.36    20.10     7.68P   11.33R    1.67  
Port_Vale        11   17   +1       2.36    69.61     1.66    64.58     9.57     0.47     1.86     5.12    24.69     9.45P    7.28R    0.93  
Bristol_Rovers   11   16   +0       3.06    74.79     3.26    59.36     9.89    -7.18     0.66     2.02    12.37     4.04P   18.89R    3.76  
Bolton           11   16   +0      -0.18    48.87    -1.68    66.85     9.97     4.34     3.65     9.07    33.68    15.52P    5.27R    0.59  
MK_Dons          11   15   +1      -1.67    36.81    -1.39    69.26    10.10    10.35     6.21    14.29    43.46    22.59P    3.29R    0.31  
Oxford_Utd       11   15   +1       0.94    58.71     2.36    60.82     9.74    -1.82     1.00     2.84    15.08     5.58P   14.37R    2.28  
Rochdale         11   15   +0      -0.44    46.92    -0.51    65.68     9.69     3.90     2.74     6.95    29.35    12.35P    5.85R    0.71  
Gillingham       11   15   -4      -0.49    46.51    -4.44    64.08     9.81    -2.86     1.76     5.19    23.96     9.45P    8.63R    1.20  
Peterborough     11   14   +4      -2.61    29.57     1.74    69.28     9.92    15.05     6.09    14.03    44.44    22.52P    2.92R    0.33  
Fleetwood_Town   11   13   +0      -1.03    41.90     1.43    59.63     9.49    -1.98     0.55     1.85    12.23     4.17P   16.51R    2.84  
AFC_Wimbledon    11   13   -1       1.35    63.01     4.31    50.30     9.36   -17.65     0.04     0.17     1.94     0.44P   51.71R   17.37  
Walsall          11   13   -4      -3.13    25.55    -5.55    63.41     9.44    -0.30     1.39     4.09    21.19     8.39P    8.77R    1.08  
Chesterfield     11   12   +0      -3.25    25.26    -0.25    57.43     9.57    -4.41     0.35     1.12     8.59     2.76P   22.94R    4.50  
Charlton         11   12   +0      -4.25    18.59    -1.76    61.31     9.95     2.11     1.14     3.53    17.51     7.29P   13.23R    2.15  
Millwall         11   12   -4      -4.32    18.36    -5.68    66.86     9.83     6.38     3.67     8.91    34.46    16.26P    5.04R    0.61  
Swindon          11   12   -4      -3.17    25.56    -3.99    58.44     9.53    -6.61     0.51     1.49     9.94     3.40P   20.39R    3.73  
Southend         11   12   -8      -0.59    46.06    -4.08    52.87     9.25   -18.80     0.07     0.31     2.90     0.83P   41.25R   11.75  
Shrewsbury       11   10   -5      -2.94    26.88    -1.70    50.09     9.22   -17.43     0.04     0.14     1.75     0.44P   52.51R   17.13  
Coventry         11    9   -4      -6.70     6.80    -5.01    57.67     9.42    -2.72     0.34     1.17     8.60     3.13P   21.48R    3.91  
Oldham           11    9   -7      -3.45    22.21    -3.61    48.27     8.87   -18.55     0.01     0.04     0.80     0.19P   60.21R   22.32  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 October 2016, Barnet 0 0 Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             11   25   +9       6.09    90.73     3.41    84.52     9.43    26.05    34.58    70.59    93.05    77.22P    0.00R    0.00  
Doncaster            11   20   +8       0.20    50.87     0.76    83.49     9.94    31.95    32.62    67.33    90.77    74.94P    0.01R    0.00  
Carlisle             11   19   +5       3.97    80.09     5.19    72.27     9.75    12.85     4.81    23.02    58.82    31.22P    0.32R    0.10  
Luton                11   18   +8       0.87    57.20     4.95    71.50     9.86    16.22     4.71    21.74    56.24    30.57P    0.32R    0.11  
Crawley_Town         11   18   +0       5.12    86.61     3.38    60.53     9.38    -8.01     0.31     2.46    15.04     4.56P    4.88R    1.85  
Portsmouth           11   17   +6      -1.05    41.21     1.53    76.10     9.51    22.68     9.95    37.37    74.33    48.80P    0.05R    0.01  
Notts_County         10   17   +3       3.49    78.18     3.36    62.51     9.88    -3.78     0.76     5.05    21.80     8.14P    3.54R    1.40  
Crewe                11   17   +0       1.24    60.40    -1.01    66.47    10.21     1.97     1.95    10.30    35.48    16.14P    1.72R    0.63  
Grimsby              11   16   +0       2.07    67.51     1.87    56.94     9.79   -11.20     0.19     1.49     9.22     2.93P   11.21R    4.89  
Morecambe            10   16   -2       4.34    83.27     1.65    60.00    10.05   -12.19     0.41     3.01    15.57     5.09P    7.09R    3.01  
Colchester           11   15   +0      -1.27    40.29    -1.70    67.01    10.48     5.84     2.41    12.15    38.45    18.74P    1.82R    0.69  
Accrington_Stanley   11   15   +0      -0.88    42.96    -1.19    67.52     9.72     6.71     1.79    11.08    39.58    18.30P    1.20R    0.39  
Hartlepool           11   15   -1       2.26    69.51     2.73    53.73     9.22   -15.77     0.04     0.56     4.46     1.22P   17.03R    7.81  
Mansfield            11   14   -1      -0.63    45.39    -0.51    58.85     9.32    -5.01     0.15     1.75    11.82     3.93P    6.29R    2.54  
Wycombe              11   14   -2      -1.03    41.86    -2.08    62.82     9.42    -0.34     0.60     4.16    21.57     8.37P    2.79R    1.08  
Blackpool            11   13   +3      -4.49    17.53    -0.52    70.25     9.88    16.70     3.58    18.33    51.69    28.77P    0.60R    0.22  
Leyton_Orient        11   12   -2      -4.51    17.17    -4.09    61.98     9.59     1.06     0.55     3.95    20.51     8.04P    3.47R    1.36  
Barnet               10   12   -2      -0.59    45.87    -0.29    57.74     9.78    -7.83     0.23     1.73    10.68     3.48P    9.55R    4.35  
Cambridge_Utd        11   12   -5      -2.23    32.16    -3.65    58.00     9.48    -7.88     0.12     1.42    10.39     3.32P    8.45R    3.58  
Stevenage            10   11   -3      -2.11    32.63    -2.08    55.17     9.70   -11.37     0.11     0.94     6.71     2.11P   14.55R    6.83  
Yeovil               11   10   -8      -2.35    30.82    -4.10    51.10     9.15   -17.75     0.02     0.19     2.34     0.54P   25.48R   13.29  
Cheltenham           11    9   -3      -5.18    13.48    -1.81    54.77     9.93    -6.08     0.08     0.94     6.85     2.33P   15.25R    7.40  
Exeter               11    9   -8      -3.93    19.96    -4.67    52.46     9.40   -15.02     0.02     0.31     3.46     0.92P   21.45R   11.12  
Newport_County        9    6   -5      -3.81    17.13    -1.11    46.82     9.59   -19.78     0.01     0.13     1.21     0.31P   42.93R   27.35  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 4 October 2016, Aldershot 0 4 Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Forest_Green       14   30  +15       4.12    78.43     4.67    88.03     8.41    36.70    36.95    89.02    53.71P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City       14   28  +15       5.55    86.09     9.82    79.19     8.92    26.27     8.86    57.83    19.20P    0.02R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          14   28  +13       1.44    59.94     1.73    86.15     8.76    35.32    29.14    83.58    47.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield       14   28  +10       4.33    79.35     3.31    78.05     8.63    19.38     6.46    51.73    17.28P    0.02R    0.00  
Eastleigh          14   26  +12       2.13    66.26     4.33    78.01     8.90    24.20     7.02    52.51    17.96P    0.03R    0.00  
Barrow             14   26   +6       6.79    90.12     6.17    70.61     8.76     7.07     1.17    20.21     4.25P    0.34R    0.00  
Aldershot          14   25   +5       5.97    87.24     5.11    68.00     8.62     3.67     0.60    12.82     2.68P    0.84R    0.01  
Dover_Athletic     14   25   +1       3.64    75.50    -2.13    75.38     8.84    11.21     3.64    38.70    10.93P    0.09R    0.00  
Tranmere           14   24   +5       0.18    50.90    -1.89    77.31     8.39    18.86     4.82    48.26    17.37P    0.02R    0.00  
Chester            14   21   +7       0.98    57.95     5.74    66.21     8.86     8.63     0.35    10.61     2.27P    1.48R    0.01  
Gateshead          14   21   +7       0.30    52.47     4.76    66.78     8.77     9.86     0.47    11.55     2.67P    1.19R    0.02  
Boreham_Wood       14   21   +6       2.72    70.68     6.92    65.70     8.43     7.86     0.22     8.24     1.69P    1.37R    0.03  
Solihull_Moors     14   19   -1       2.25    67.06     3.29    56.70     9.19   -11.60     0.04     1.55     0.31P   14.69R    0.81  
Sutton_United      14   19   -3       3.70    76.98     3.02    58.39     9.15    -9.55     0.02     2.06     0.34P   10.97R    0.48  
Wrexham            14   19   -6      -0.41    47.66    -6.46    64.25     8.54    -3.68     0.16     5.67     1.20P    2.44R    0.04  
Maidstone_United   14   18   -5       2.40    68.32     1.00    52.18     9.07   -21.92     0.01     0.50     0.08P   29.95R    2.37  
Torquay            14   17   -4      -0.58    46.16    -1.68    56.86     8.47   -10.39     0.01     0.95     0.14P   12.43R    0.51  
Bromley            14   17   -5       0.00    50.99    -1.34    56.98     8.59   -11.89     0.01     1.03     0.14P   12.55R    0.48  
Woking             14   12   -8      -6.09    12.88    -5.86    56.20     8.82    -8.42     0.01     0.95     0.18P   14.66R    0.83  
York               14   12  -10      -7.87     6.99   -11.04    58.56     9.13    -6.01     0.04     2.10     0.51P   10.31R    0.51  
North_Ferriby      14   10  -16      -2.55    30.71    -5.40    37.60     8.10   -39.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.98R   36.21  
Braintree_Town     14    9  -12      -9.58     2.61   -11.32    51.21     8.43   -13.85     0.00     0.14     0.03P   30.63R    2.15  
Southport          14    9  -23      -3.33    25.00   -11.15    39.67     8.04   -44.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.53R   26.77  
Guiseley           14    6   -9      -8.56     3.50    -1.58    38.69     8.18   -27.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.46R   28.77