Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation
Updated Thursday 6 October 2016 at 21:00:01 GMT
Premier League (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 October 2016, Burnley 0 1 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)-- Current -- --------- Luck --------- ------- Expected ------- ------------------- Percentage chance -------------------- Team Pld Pts GD Points %(pts) GD Points sd(pts) GD Top1 Top2 Top3 Top4 Top6 Bot3 Bot1 Man_City 7 18 +11 3.63 85.11 2.60 80.19 8.57 43.47 43.63 67.25 81.40 90.14 97.70 0.00 0.00 Tottenham 7 17 +9 4.20 88.37 4.10 72.78 8.70 29.51 12.83 31.37 50.57 67.46 88.86 0.00 0.00 Arsenal 7 16 +9 2.83 77.39 3.45 76.40 8.60 37.86 25.14 49.68 68.33 81.29 94.68 0.00 0.00 Liverpool 7 16 +8 4.99 91.49 5.87 71.37 9.06 28.99 10.97 26.68 44.45 61.04 84.80 0.01R 0.00 Everton 7 14 +6 2.13 71.64 2.59 58.71 8.94 8.64 0.65 2.52 6.59 12.74 34.82 0.34R 0.03 Man_Utd 7 13 +5 0.73 57.24 1.02 65.25 8.78 19.57 2.81 9.35 19.38 33.17 64.93 0.04R 0.01 Chelsea 7 13 +3 0.96 59.72 -0.71 65.63 8.90 18.59 3.28 10.07 20.59 34.69 65.99 0.03R 0.00 Crystal_Palace 7 11 +3 1.73 69.21 3.55 46.96 8.54 -7.68 0.02 0.09 0.33 0.87 4.64 7.49R 1.22 West_Brom 7 9 +1 -0.24 48.34 1.40 42.72 8.20 -12.64 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.18 1.38 16.21R 3.40 Southampton 7 9 +1 -1.85 30.27 -0.87 58.12 8.84 10.61 0.46 2.01 5.29 11.08 32.23 0.44R 0.06 Watford 7 8 -1 0.31 55.48 2.12 44.29 8.61 -12.52 0.01 0.03 0.13 0.43 2.42 13.71R 3.22 Leicester 7 8 -3 -1.94 30.56 -3.33 54.91 9.05 3.20 0.20 0.83 2.59 5.93 20.86 1.38R 0.21 Bournemouth 7 8 -5 1.21 65.59 0.10 39.57 8.40 -24.58 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.10 0.66 29.95R 9.17 Burnley 7 7 -4 -0.62 44.57 -0.87 40.92 8.67 -17.20 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.16 1.19 24.52R 7.07 Hull 7 7 -7 0.52 58.45 -1.92 40.41 8.77 -22.19 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.13 1.05 27.56R 8.45 Middlesbrough 7 6 -3 -2.01 29.90 -0.68 38.51 8.58 -18.88 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.09 0.59 33.60R 10.72 Swansea 7 4 -6 -3.40 16.41 -2.45 40.76 8.52 -15.69 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.11 0.85 24.36R 6.89 West_Ham 7 4 -9 -5.06 7.27 -7.62 42.70 8.95 -16.56 0.01 0.04 0.11 0.35 1.96 19.14R 5.34 Stoke 7 3 -11 -3.65 13.15 -6.21 36.17 8.39 -26.87 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.28 44.82R 17.61 Sunderland 7 2 -7 -4.94 5.84 -2.15 33.55 8.40 -25.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.11 56.39R 26.63Championship (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 October 2016, Birmingham 1 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
-- Current -- --------- Luck --------- ------- Expected ------- --------------- Percentage chance --------------- Team Pld Pts GD Points %(pts) GD Points sd(pts) GD Top1 Top2 Top6 2+[3-6] Bot3 Bot1 Huddersfield 11 25 +6 10.49 98.92 6.79 72.48 9.47 5.16 3.22 10.14 49.64 17.00P 0.40R 0.03 Norwich 11 23 +6 4.40 82.29 0.59 84.46 9.94 27.08 27.20 52.48 88.46 63.54P 0.03R 0.00 Newcastle 11 22 +12 1.68 63.28 3.88 88.58 9.53 41.13 47.25 70.89 95.33 79.90P 0.00R 0.00 Brighton 11 21 +7 2.96 74.32 2.47 79.37 9.25 21.96 11.55 29.39 78.27 44.57P 0.04R 0.00 Bristol_City 11 20 +7 4.82 84.77 7.06 67.61 9.55 6.14 1.17 4.31 31.50 9.57P 1.48R 0.13 Birmingham 11 20 +5 3.98 80.42 3.59 68.97 9.26 6.89 1.61 5.28 35.74 11.89P 0.94R 0.08 Brentford 11 18 +9 0.34 52.99 5.07 72.58 9.72 18.98 4.03 12.03 52.95 22.77P 0.43R 0.04 Reading 11 18 -3 4.82 85.66 -0.07 62.74 9.32 -7.62 0.36 1.35 14.93 3.66P 5.11R 0.61 Sheff_Wed 11 17 -1 1.02 59.01 -2.31 68.27 9.32 4.21 1.25 4.46 33.01 11.57P 1.23R 0.12 Barnsley 11 16 +5 2.21 68.71 7.03 59.29 10.06 -3.35 0.29 1.08 10.67 2.95P 11.02R 1.83 Leeds_United 11 16 -1 1.77 65.54 0.11 58.27 9.04 -9.11 0.10 0.40 6.54 1.54P 10.71R 1.69 Wolverhampton 11 15 +1 -0.52 46.20 0.43 63.83 9.41 2.43 0.43 1.79 18.90 5.67P 3.70R 0.39 QPR 11 15 -3 -0.25 48.51 -3.22 62.59 9.33 -3.61 0.33 1.39 15.19 4.51P 4.67R 0.65 Fulham 11 14 -3 0.19 52.52 -0.92 55.40 9.41 -14.24 0.05 0.24 4.29 0.99P 18.94R 3.97 Burton_Albion 11 13 +0 0.62 56.71 3.89 52.94 9.36 -11.46 0.02 0.10 2.55 0.53P 26.18R 6.34 Ipswich 11 13 -1 -1.99 33.72 -1.12 62.32 9.15 1.49 0.25 1.05 14.23 4.34P 4.71R 0.64 Preston 11 13 -2 -1.61 37.10 -1.58 57.82 9.05 -5.83 0.08 0.32 6.06 1.47P 11.34R 1.81 Nott'm_Forest 11 12 -3 -2.23 32.05 -1.60 57.53 9.39 -6.92 0.10 0.41 6.54 1.73P 12.97R 2.19 Aston_Villa 11 10 -2 -4.51 16.38 -1.50 57.79 9.67 -1.79 0.11 0.51 7.55 2.29P 12.64R 2.23 Derby 11 10 -4 -6.48 7.83 -6.09 64.27 9.33 5.46 0.53 2.01 20.37 7.59P 3.25R 0.35 Wigan 11 9 -2 -5.03 13.78 -0.39 55.45 9.65 -3.85 0.07 0.27 4.66 1.29P 18.36R 4.03 Blackburn 11 8 -8 -6.16 8.16 -6.83 51.45 9.14 -14.65 0.01 0.06 1.59 0.39P 31.29R 7.15 Cardiff 11 8 -11 -5.85 9.59 -9.19 49.87 9.11 -19.82 0.00 0.04 1.01 0.25P 38.62R 10.41 Rotherham 11 6 -14 -4.36 15.84 -6.11 39.25 8.76 -38.69 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01P 81.96R 55.29League 1 (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 October 2016, AFC_Wimbledon 2 0 Gillingham; Check up-to-date)
-- Current -- --------- Luck --------- ------- Expected ------- --------------- Percentage chance --------------- Team Pld Pts GD Points %(pts) GD Points sd(pts) GD Top1 Top2 Top6 2+[3-6] Bot4 Bot1 Scunthorpe 11 24 +15 5.18 86.34 9.30 81.94 9.67 30.09 41.41 59.43 87.26 67.17P 0.08R 0.01 Bradford 11 21 +6 4.29 82.34 3.63 75.94 9.21 16.27 15.97 32.13 70.40 42.58P 0.29R 0.01 Bury 11 20 +7 5.36 87.11 7.83 66.15 9.70 3.86 2.98 7.76 30.77 12.21P 5.37R 0.57 Sheff_Utd 11 18 +0 2.00 66.58 -1.33 69.92 9.61 5.97 5.92 13.99 44.53 21.54P 2.39R 0.23 Northampton 11 17 +6 1.53 62.92 5.47 62.36 9.97 1.51 1.64 4.36 20.10 7.68P 11.33R 1.67 Port_Vale 11 17 +1 2.36 69.61 1.66 64.58 9.57 0.47 1.86 5.12 24.69 9.45P 7.28R 0.93 Bristol_Rovers 11 16 +0 3.06 74.79 3.26 59.36 9.89 -7.18 0.66 2.02 12.37 4.04P 18.89R 3.76 Bolton 11 16 +0 -0.18 48.87 -1.68 66.85 9.97 4.34 3.65 9.07 33.68 15.52P 5.27R 0.59 MK_Dons 11 15 +1 -1.67 36.81 -1.39 69.26 10.10 10.35 6.21 14.29 43.46 22.59P 3.29R 0.31 Oxford_Utd 11 15 +1 0.94 58.71 2.36 60.82 9.74 -1.82 1.00 2.84 15.08 5.58P 14.37R 2.28 Rochdale 11 15 +0 -0.44 46.92 -0.51 65.68 9.69 3.90 2.74 6.95 29.35 12.35P 5.85R 0.71 Gillingham 11 15 -4 -0.49 46.51 -4.44 64.08 9.81 -2.86 1.76 5.19 23.96 9.45P 8.63R 1.20 Peterborough 11 14 +4 -2.61 29.57 1.74 69.28 9.92 15.05 6.09 14.03 44.44 22.52P 2.92R 0.33 Fleetwood_Town 11 13 +0 -1.03 41.90 1.43 59.63 9.49 -1.98 0.55 1.85 12.23 4.17P 16.51R 2.84 AFC_Wimbledon 11 13 -1 1.35 63.01 4.31 50.30 9.36 -17.65 0.04 0.17 1.94 0.44P 51.71R 17.37 Walsall 11 13 -4 -3.13 25.55 -5.55 63.41 9.44 -0.30 1.39 4.09 21.19 8.39P 8.77R 1.08 Chesterfield 11 12 +0 -3.25 25.26 -0.25 57.43 9.57 -4.41 0.35 1.12 8.59 2.76P 22.94R 4.50 Charlton 11 12 +0 -4.25 18.59 -1.76 61.31 9.95 2.11 1.14 3.53 17.51 7.29P 13.23R 2.15 Millwall 11 12 -4 -4.32 18.36 -5.68 66.86 9.83 6.38 3.67 8.91 34.46 16.26P 5.04R 0.61 Swindon 11 12 -4 -3.17 25.56 -3.99 58.44 9.53 -6.61 0.51 1.49 9.94 3.40P 20.39R 3.73 Southend 11 12 -8 -0.59 46.06 -4.08 52.87 9.25 -18.80 0.07 0.31 2.90 0.83P 41.25R 11.75 Shrewsbury 11 10 -5 -2.94 26.88 -1.70 50.09 9.22 -17.43 0.04 0.14 1.75 0.44P 52.51R 17.13 Coventry 11 9 -4 -6.70 6.80 -5.01 57.67 9.42 -2.72 0.34 1.17 8.60 3.13P 21.48R 3.91 Oldham 11 9 -7 -3.45 22.21 -3.61 48.27 8.87 -18.55 0.01 0.04 0.80 0.19P 60.21R 22.32League 2 (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 October 2016, Barnet 0 0 Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
-- Current -- --------- Luck --------- ------- Expected ------- --------------- Percentage chance --------------- Team Pld Pts GD Points %(pts) GD Points sd(pts) GD Top1 Top3 Top7 3+[4-7] Bot2 Bot1 Plymouth 11 25 +9 6.09 90.73 3.41 84.52 9.43 26.05 34.58 70.59 93.05 77.22P 0.00R 0.00 Doncaster 11 20 +8 0.20 50.87 0.76 83.49 9.94 31.95 32.62 67.33 90.77 74.94P 0.01R 0.00 Carlisle 11 19 +5 3.97 80.09 5.19 72.27 9.75 12.85 4.81 23.02 58.82 31.22P 0.32R 0.10 Luton 11 18 +8 0.87 57.20 4.95 71.50 9.86 16.22 4.71 21.74 56.24 30.57P 0.32R 0.11 Crawley_Town 11 18 +0 5.12 86.61 3.38 60.53 9.38 -8.01 0.31 2.46 15.04 4.56P 4.88R 1.85 Portsmouth 11 17 +6 -1.05 41.21 1.53 76.10 9.51 22.68 9.95 37.37 74.33 48.80P 0.05R 0.01 Notts_County 10 17 +3 3.49 78.18 3.36 62.51 9.88 -3.78 0.76 5.05 21.80 8.14P 3.54R 1.40 Crewe 11 17 +0 1.24 60.40 -1.01 66.47 10.21 1.97 1.95 10.30 35.48 16.14P 1.72R 0.63 Grimsby 11 16 +0 2.07 67.51 1.87 56.94 9.79 -11.20 0.19 1.49 9.22 2.93P 11.21R 4.89 Morecambe 10 16 -2 4.34 83.27 1.65 60.00 10.05 -12.19 0.41 3.01 15.57 5.09P 7.09R 3.01 Colchester 11 15 +0 -1.27 40.29 -1.70 67.01 10.48 5.84 2.41 12.15 38.45 18.74P 1.82R 0.69 Accrington_Stanley 11 15 +0 -0.88 42.96 -1.19 67.52 9.72 6.71 1.79 11.08 39.58 18.30P 1.20R 0.39 Hartlepool 11 15 -1 2.26 69.51 2.73 53.73 9.22 -15.77 0.04 0.56 4.46 1.22P 17.03R 7.81 Mansfield 11 14 -1 -0.63 45.39 -0.51 58.85 9.32 -5.01 0.15 1.75 11.82 3.93P 6.29R 2.54 Wycombe 11 14 -2 -1.03 41.86 -2.08 62.82 9.42 -0.34 0.60 4.16 21.57 8.37P 2.79R 1.08 Blackpool 11 13 +3 -4.49 17.53 -0.52 70.25 9.88 16.70 3.58 18.33 51.69 28.77P 0.60R 0.22 Leyton_Orient 11 12 -2 -4.51 17.17 -4.09 61.98 9.59 1.06 0.55 3.95 20.51 8.04P 3.47R 1.36 Barnet 10 12 -2 -0.59 45.87 -0.29 57.74 9.78 -7.83 0.23 1.73 10.68 3.48P 9.55R 4.35 Cambridge_Utd 11 12 -5 -2.23 32.16 -3.65 58.00 9.48 -7.88 0.12 1.42 10.39 3.32P 8.45R 3.58 Stevenage 10 11 -3 -2.11 32.63 -2.08 55.17 9.70 -11.37 0.11 0.94 6.71 2.11P 14.55R 6.83 Yeovil 11 10 -8 -2.35 30.82 -4.10 51.10 9.15 -17.75 0.02 0.19 2.34 0.54P 25.48R 13.29 Cheltenham 11 9 -3 -5.18 13.48 -1.81 54.77 9.93 -6.08 0.08 0.94 6.85 2.33P 15.25R 7.40 Exeter 11 9 -8 -3.93 19.96 -4.67 52.46 9.40 -15.02 0.02 0.31 3.46 0.92P 21.45R 11.12 Newport_County 9 6 -5 -3.81 17.13 -1.11 46.82 9.59 -19.78 0.01 0.13 1.21 0.31P 42.93R 27.35National League (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 4 October 2016, Aldershot 0 4 Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
-- Current -- --------- Luck --------- ------- Expected ------- ---------- Percentage chance ----------- Team Pld Pts GD Points %(pts) GD Points sd(pts) GD Top1 Top5 1+[2-5] Bot4 Bot1 Forest_Green 14 30 +15 4.12 78.43 4.67 88.03 8.41 36.70 36.95 89.02 53.71P 0.00 0.00 Lincoln_City 14 28 +15 5.55 86.09 9.82 79.19 8.92 26.27 8.86 57.83 19.20P 0.02R 0.00 Dag_&_Red 14 28 +13 1.44 59.94 1.73 86.15 8.76 35.32 29.14 83.58 47.05P 0.00R 0.00 Macclesfield 14 28 +10 4.33 79.35 3.31 78.05 8.63 19.38 6.46 51.73 17.28P 0.02R 0.00 Eastleigh 14 26 +12 2.13 66.26 4.33 78.01 8.90 24.20 7.02 52.51 17.96P 0.03R 0.00 Barrow 14 26 +6 6.79 90.12 6.17 70.61 8.76 7.07 1.17 20.21 4.25P 0.34R 0.00 Aldershot 14 25 +5 5.97 87.24 5.11 68.00 8.62 3.67 0.60 12.82 2.68P 0.84R 0.01 Dover_Athletic 14 25 +1 3.64 75.50 -2.13 75.38 8.84 11.21 3.64 38.70 10.93P 0.09R 0.00 Tranmere 14 24 +5 0.18 50.90 -1.89 77.31 8.39 18.86 4.82 48.26 17.37P 0.02R 0.00 Chester 14 21 +7 0.98 57.95 5.74 66.21 8.86 8.63 0.35 10.61 2.27P 1.48R 0.01 Gateshead 14 21 +7 0.30 52.47 4.76 66.78 8.77 9.86 0.47 11.55 2.67P 1.19R 0.02 Boreham_Wood 14 21 +6 2.72 70.68 6.92 65.70 8.43 7.86 0.22 8.24 1.69P 1.37R 0.03 Solihull_Moors 14 19 -1 2.25 67.06 3.29 56.70 9.19 -11.60 0.04 1.55 0.31P 14.69R 0.81 Sutton_United 14 19 -3 3.70 76.98 3.02 58.39 9.15 -9.55 0.02 2.06 0.34P 10.97R 0.48 Wrexham 14 19 -6 -0.41 47.66 -6.46 64.25 8.54 -3.68 0.16 5.67 1.20P 2.44R 0.04 Maidstone_United 14 18 -5 2.40 68.32 1.00 52.18 9.07 -21.92 0.01 0.50 0.08P 29.95R 2.37 Torquay 14 17 -4 -0.58 46.16 -1.68 56.86 8.47 -10.39 0.01 0.95 0.14P 12.43R 0.51 Bromley 14 17 -5 0.00 50.99 -1.34 56.98 8.59 -11.89 0.01 1.03 0.14P 12.55R 0.48 Woking 14 12 -8 -6.09 12.88 -5.86 56.20 8.82 -8.42 0.01 0.95 0.18P 14.66R 0.83 York 14 12 -10 -7.87 6.99 -11.04 58.56 9.13 -6.01 0.04 2.10 0.51P 10.31R 0.51 North_Ferriby 14 10 -16 -2.55 30.71 -5.40 37.60 8.10 -39.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 87.98R 36.21 Braintree_Town 14 9 -12 -9.58 2.61 -11.32 51.21 8.43 -13.85 0.00 0.14 0.03P 30.63R 2.15 Southport 14 9 -23 -3.33 25.00 -11.15 39.67 8.04 -44.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 83.53R 26.77 Guiseley 14 6 -9 -8.56 3.50 -1.58 38.69 8.18 -27.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 84.46R 28.77