Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 5 October 2016 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 2 October 2016, Burnley 0 1 Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          7   18  +11       3.61    85.06     2.56    80.10     8.59    43.43    43.86    66.89    81.26    89.77    97.55     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham         7   17   +9       4.22    88.38     4.13    72.62     8.71    29.18    12.42    30.71    49.96    66.86    88.50     0.00R    0.00  
Arsenal           7   16   +9       2.74    76.71     3.38    76.38     8.56    37.89    24.85    49.55    68.37    81.27    94.88     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool         7   16   +8       4.99    91.52     5.85    71.42     9.02    29.09    11.06    27.11    44.93    62.25    85.42     0.00R    0.00  
Everton           7   14   +6       2.07    70.97     2.50    58.88     8.98     8.91     0.73     2.76     6.61    13.13    35.63     0.37R    0.03  
Man_Utd           7   13   +5       0.68    56.61     0.93    65.46     8.87    19.87     3.23    10.18    20.66    34.39    65.77     0.05R    0.01  
Chelsea           7   13   +3       1.10    61.26    -0.49    65.22     8.91    17.91     3.10     9.70    19.63    33.10    64.21     0.05R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace    7   11   +3       1.70    68.81     3.54    46.94     8.53    -7.73     0.02     0.11     0.34     0.90     4.26     7.66R    1.25  
West_Brom         7    9   +1      -0.22    48.60     1.44    42.74     8.25   -12.58     0.00     0.02     0.08     0.21     1.59    16.32R    3.49  
Southampton       7    9   +1      -1.81    30.62    -0.83    58.19     8.80    10.69     0.54     2.03     5.38    11.18    32.79     0.44R    0.05  
Watford           7    8   -1       0.31    55.48     2.13    44.17     8.68   -12.68     0.00     0.03     0.12     0.39     2.44    14.17R    3.41  
Leicester         7    8   -3      -1.87    31.09    -3.23    54.79     8.95     2.97     0.17     0.83     2.41     5.69    20.22     1.48R    0.23  
Bournemouth       7    8   -5       1.24    66.13     0.13    39.77     8.35   -24.26     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.08     0.68    29.37R    8.73  
Burnley           7    7   -4      -0.66    44.15    -0.93    40.96     8.69   -17.13     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.14     1.10    24.42R    7.16  
Hull              7    7   -7       0.42    57.11    -2.09    40.58     8.76   -21.84     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.14     1.10    26.96R    8.08  
Middlesbrough     7    6   -3      -2.03    29.78    -0.71    38.52     8.60   -18.78     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.07     0.62    33.55R   10.87  
Swansea           7    4   -6      -3.39    16.38    -2.45    40.78     8.55   -15.64     0.00     0.01     0.03     0.12     0.94    24.30R    6.79  
West_Ham          7    4   -9      -5.09     7.06    -7.65    42.67     8.88   -16.58     0.00     0.03     0.09     0.29     1.93    19.10R    5.24  
Stoke             7    3  -11      -3.61    13.40    -6.11    36.08     8.38   -27.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.22    45.45R   17.96  
Sunderland        7    2   -7      -4.90     6.14    -2.09    33.60     8.38   -25.58     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01     0.13    56.30R   26.70  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 October 2016, Birmingham 1 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Huddersfield    11   25   +6      10.49    99.02     6.81    72.48     9.43     5.09     3.15     9.86    49.39    16.80P    0.36R    0.03  
Norwich         11   23   +6       4.37    82.33     0.59    84.33     9.91    26.80    26.80    51.74    88.23    63.08P    0.02R    0.00  
Newcastle       11   22  +12       1.64    62.72     3.85    88.71     9.55    41.25    47.79    71.52    95.38    80.09P    0.00R    0.00  
Brighton        11   21   +7       2.93    74.07     2.41    79.49     9.22    22.11    11.60    29.52    78.81    45.05P    0.02R    0.00  
Bristol_City    11   20   +7       4.87    84.89     7.16    67.48     9.55     5.95     1.27     4.27    31.00     9.54P    1.60R    0.14  
Birmingham      11   20   +5       4.05    80.91     3.65    68.86     9.28     6.70     1.57     5.22    35.32    11.71P    0.87R    0.07  
Brentford       11   18   +9       0.33    52.75     5.07    72.62     9.69    19.08     4.08    12.22    52.65    22.98P    0.43R    0.03  
Reading         11   18   -3       4.86    85.83     0.00    62.77     9.37    -7.59     0.28     1.31    15.05     3.73P    5.08R    0.59  
Sheff_Wed       11   17   -1       1.08    59.60    -2.25    68.15     9.33     4.01     1.27     4.41    32.29    11.23P    1.26R    0.12  
Barnsley        11   16   +5       2.20    68.51     6.98    59.51     9.99    -3.04     0.24     1.06    10.90     2.84P   10.52R    1.79  
Leeds_United    11   16   -1       1.74    65.32     0.09    58.26     9.06    -9.09     0.10     0.43     6.72     1.62P   10.62R    1.54  
Wolverhampton   11   15   +1      -0.51    46.16     0.42    63.85     9.37     2.46     0.41     1.84    18.66     5.69P    3.48R    0.40  
QPR             11   15   -3      -0.26    48.57    -3.23    62.56     9.42    -3.66     0.34     1.40    15.55     4.43P    4.89R    0.65  
Fulham          11   14   -3       0.23    52.95    -0.86    55.38     9.32   -14.23     0.05     0.26     4.10     0.90P   18.70R    3.97  
Burton_Albion   11   13   +0       0.71    57.66     4.01    52.56     9.27   -11.96     0.01     0.08     2.35     0.47P   27.40R    6.48  
Ipswich         11   13   -1      -2.05    33.29    -1.18    62.45     9.18     1.69     0.25     1.14    14.62     4.43P    4.59R    0.61  
Preston         11   13   -2      -1.56    37.24    -1.52    57.81     9.08    -5.89     0.05     0.37     5.99     1.51P   11.50R    1.93  
Nott'm_Forest   11   12   -3      -2.23    32.23    -1.60    57.56     9.46    -6.89     0.08     0.39     6.71     1.64P   13.22R    2.15  
Aston_Villa     11   10   -2      -4.60    15.88    -1.65    58.13     9.52    -1.29     0.10     0.49     7.65     2.29P   11.58R    2.00  
Derby           11   10   -4      -6.53     7.80    -6.17    64.40     9.37     5.62     0.50     2.06    20.84     7.81P    3.10R    0.43  
Wigan           11    9   -2      -5.18    13.14    -0.64    55.78     9.71    -3.40     0.05     0.29     5.22     1.53P   17.24R    3.63  
Blackburn       11    8   -8      -6.04     8.77    -6.68    51.17     9.18   -15.07     0.01     0.05     1.52     0.35P   32.42R    7.81  
Cardiff         11    8  -11      -5.83     9.77    -9.16    49.72     9.14   -20.00     0.01     0.04     1.03     0.27P   39.20R   10.65  
Rotherham       11    6  -14      -4.35    15.77    -6.10    39.29     8.70   -38.66     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   81.89R   54.96  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 October 2016, AFC_Wimbledon 2 0 Gillingham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Scunthorpe       11   24  +15       5.18    86.17     9.32    82.10     9.73    30.26    41.72    59.38    87.11    67.07P    0.05R    0.00  
Bradford         11   21   +6       4.30    82.55     3.64    76.08     9.29    16.54    16.35    32.42    70.46    43.01P    0.29R    0.02  
Bury             11   20   +7       5.37    87.35     7.86    66.10     9.60     3.79     2.76     7.46    30.34    12.03P    5.22R    0.47  
Sheff_Utd        11   18   +0       1.82    65.17    -1.57    70.25     9.65     6.41     6.16    14.53    46.03    22.46P    2.15R    0.17  
Northampton      11   17   +6       1.46    62.40     5.37    62.58    10.08     1.88     1.79     4.73    20.84     8.09P   11.14R    1.70  
Port_Vale        11   17   +1       2.36    69.86     1.65    64.66     9.51     0.49     1.83     5.17    24.92     9.39P    7.01R    0.88  
Bristol_Rovers   11   16   +0       3.06    74.88     3.26    59.51    10.02    -7.03     0.77     2.25    13.02     4.32P   18.86R    3.70  
Bolton           11   16   +0      -0.10    49.35    -1.56    66.58    10.09     3.96     3.75     8.99    32.42    15.07P    5.45R    0.69  
MK_Dons          11   15   +1      -1.60    37.54    -1.27    68.95    10.13     9.91     5.89    13.53    42.33    21.72P    3.51R    0.37  
Oxford_Utd       11   15   +1       1.00    59.09     2.41    60.55     9.65    -2.19     0.86     2.49    14.42     5.13P   14.65R    2.37  
Rochdale         11   15   +0      -0.40    47.19    -0.43    65.63     9.67     3.74     2.62     6.92    28.77    12.07P    5.93R    0.77  
Gillingham       11   15   -4      -0.50    46.49    -4.44    64.06     9.83    -2.89     1.82     5.26    23.53     9.44P    8.83R    1.16  
Peterborough     11   14   +4      -2.57    30.01     1.79    69.08     9.91    14.72     5.64    13.55    43.64    21.80P    3.10R    0.33  
Fleetwood_Town   11   13   +0      -1.06    41.81     1.35    59.70     9.54    -1.88     0.61     1.94    12.60     4.30P   16.44R    2.70  
AFC_Wimbledon    11   13   -1       1.39    63.36     4.34    50.35     9.47   -17.60     0.04     0.19     2.08     0.49P   51.44R   17.37  
Walsall          11   13   -4      -3.25    24.83    -5.70    63.71     9.53     0.13     1.51     4.42    22.33     9.18P    8.38R    1.03  
Chesterfield     11   12   +0      -3.32    24.90    -0.34    57.66     9.61    -4.08     0.40     1.36     9.23     3.19P   22.20R    4.21  
Charlton         11   12   +0      -4.25    18.69    -1.75    61.28     9.99     2.11     1.22     3.47    17.37     7.21P   13.46R    2.06  
Millwall         11   12   -4      -4.33    18.37    -5.72    66.89     9.78     6.47     3.32     8.79    34.29    16.04P    4.80R    0.59  
Swindon          11   12   -4      -3.15    25.84    -3.93    58.38     9.62    -6.75     0.50     1.61    10.14     3.48P   20.45R    3.82  
Southend         11   12   -8      -0.58    46.27    -4.04    52.80     9.24   -18.93     0.06     0.26     2.88     0.70P   41.32R   11.77  
Shrewsbury       11   10   -5      -2.85    27.48    -1.62    49.82     9.19   -17.75     0.03     0.12     1.62     0.43P   53.37R   17.69  
Coventry         11    9   -4      -6.74     6.82    -5.05    57.59     9.52    -2.78     0.35     1.15     8.89     3.23P   21.91R    4.02  
Oldham           11    9   -7      -3.42    22.60    -3.57    48.28     8.87   -18.53     0.01     0.04     0.73     0.18P   60.03R   22.11  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 October 2016, Barnet 0 0 Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Plymouth             11   25   +9       6.07    90.97     3.39    84.60     9.49    26.14    34.87    71.12    93.15    77.79P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            11   20   +8       0.12    50.38     0.67    83.84     9.92    32.43    33.83    69.01    91.31    76.41P    0.01R    0.01  
Carlisle             11   19   +5       3.95    79.84     5.16    72.34     9.71    12.97     4.69    23.06    59.24    31.23P    0.33R    0.08  
Luton                11   18   +8       0.87    57.49     4.96    71.40     9.72    16.15     4.30    21.24    55.89    30.29P    0.33R    0.09  
Crawley_Town         11   18   +0       5.06    86.42     3.33    60.56     9.35    -8.01     0.28     2.58    15.04     4.73P    4.82R    1.90  
Portsmouth           11   17   +6      -0.97    41.86     1.64    75.98     9.49    22.51     9.70    36.83    74.22    48.01P    0.07R    0.02  
Notts_County         10   17   +3       3.56    78.52     3.46    62.22     9.91    -4.25     0.70     4.81    21.33     7.87P    4.07R    1.67  
Crewe                11   17   +0       1.19    60.11    -1.10    66.52    10.27     2.04     1.93    10.72    36.09    16.61P    1.83R    0.65  
Grimsby              11   16   +0       2.11    67.52     1.96    56.83     9.82   -11.40     0.20     1.60     9.41     3.05P   11.55R    5.25  
Morecambe            10   16   -2       4.32    83.21     1.61    60.08     9.99   -11.99     0.40     2.99    15.59     5.09P    6.73R    2.97  
Colchester           11   15   +0      -1.21    40.52    -1.63    66.91    10.35     5.64     2.17    11.69    38.08    18.19P    1.91R    0.73  
Accrington_Stanley   11   15   +0      -0.84    43.52    -1.14    67.53     9.64     6.76     1.78    10.97    39.51    18.20P    1.10R    0.38  
Hartlepool           11   15   -1       2.34    70.08     2.88    53.49     9.26   -16.21     0.05     0.51     4.40     1.17P   17.67R    8.29  
Mansfield            11   14   -1      -0.64    45.15    -0.53    58.89     9.33    -4.93     0.16     1.82    11.84     3.91P    6.44R    2.54  
Wycombe              11   14   -2      -1.07    41.51    -2.15    62.79     9.36    -0.30     0.56     3.98    21.56     8.14P    2.79R    1.00  
Blackpool            11   13   +3      -4.35    18.32    -0.34    69.77     9.87    16.07     3.28    16.94    49.98    27.36P    0.64R    0.21  
Leyton_Orient        11   12   -2      -4.43    17.66    -3.97    61.86     9.61     0.87     0.48     4.03    20.01     7.97P    3.67R    1.44  
Barnet               10   12   -2      -0.64    45.31    -0.40    57.91     9.80    -7.53     0.23     1.81    11.05     3.68P    9.45R    4.17  
Cambridge_Utd        11   12   -5      -2.25    32.16    -3.69    58.19     9.54    -7.64     0.17     1.59    11.00     3.70P    8.17R    3.42  
Stevenage            10   11   -3      -2.19    31.98    -2.20    55.42     9.71   -10.98     0.09     0.99     7.10     2.21P   14.01R    6.60  
Yeovil               11   10   -8      -2.36    30.51    -4.11    51.08     9.15   -17.77     0.02     0.21     2.35     0.57P   25.38R   13.22  
Cheltenham           11    9   -3      -5.21    13.35    -1.86    54.94     9.92    -5.86     0.07     0.98     7.16     2.51P   14.98R    7.30  
Exeter               11    9   -8      -3.97    19.43    -4.73    52.41     9.42   -15.06     0.02     0.37     3.42     1.00P   21.64R   11.04  
Newport_County        9    6   -5      -3.85    16.94    -1.20    46.91     9.54   -19.65     0.01     0.11     1.24     0.31P   42.40R   27.01  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 4 October 2016, Aldershot 0 4 Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Forest_Green       14   30  +15       4.16    78.70     4.76    87.92     8.54    36.54    37.07    88.55    53.16P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City       14   28  +15       5.57    86.11     9.85    79.20     8.93    26.35     9.10    57.98    19.48P    0.02R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          14   28  +13       1.41    59.57     1.70    86.15     8.80    35.34    29.30    83.68    47.48P    0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield       14   28  +10       4.37    79.66     3.37    78.00     8.63    19.35     6.47    51.46    17.42P    0.02R    0.00  
Eastleigh          14   26  +12       2.20    66.41     4.45    77.95     8.81    24.08     6.87    52.35    18.19P    0.03R    0.00  
Barrow             14   26   +6       6.82    90.17     6.27    70.48     8.81     6.82     1.14    20.29     4.29P    0.47R    0.00  
Aldershot          14   25   +5       5.99    87.34     5.12    67.86     8.64     3.39     0.49    13.02     2.56P    0.81R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     14   25   +1       3.65    75.47    -2.13    75.37     8.88    11.24     3.55    38.88    10.77P    0.11R    0.00  
Tranmere           14   24   +5       0.32    52.00    -1.69    77.05     8.46    18.49     4.77    47.25    16.69P    0.03R    0.00  
Chester            14   21   +7       0.98    57.71     5.77    66.16     8.82     8.58     0.38    10.50     2.38P    1.57R    0.02  
Gateshead          14   21   +7       0.27    52.32     4.72    66.61     8.79     9.62     0.41    11.47     2.56P    1.34R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       14   21   +6       2.69    70.67     6.87    65.68     8.46     7.87     0.19     8.62     1.73P    1.40R    0.02  
Solihull_Moors     14   19   -1       2.15    66.33     3.13    57.04     9.19   -11.06     0.02     1.67     0.31P   13.86R    0.73  
Sutton_United      14   19   -3       3.64    76.55     2.91    58.52     9.22    -9.36     0.04     2.24     0.37P   10.91R    0.50  
Wrexham            14   19   -6      -0.42    47.37    -6.44    64.36     8.48    -3.56     0.13     5.89     1.33P    2.32R    0.03  
Maidstone_United   14   18   -5       2.28    67.69     0.75    52.43     9.05   -21.42     0.01     0.54     0.11P   29.23R    2.28  
Torquay            14   17   -4      -0.42    47.65    -1.45    56.64     8.50   -10.83     0.02     1.02     0.16P   12.99R    0.49  
Bromley            14   17   -5      -0.07    50.33    -1.44    57.06     8.63   -11.83     0.01     1.15     0.18P   12.71R    0.49  
Woking             14   12   -8      -6.10    12.85    -5.94    56.28     8.82    -8.30     0.02     1.06     0.22P   14.82R    0.76  
York               14   12  -10      -8.01     6.87   -11.20    58.73     9.07    -5.82     0.04     2.26     0.58P    9.90R    0.52  
North_Ferriby      14   10  -16      -2.52    31.04    -5.38    37.52     8.12   -39.97     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.28R   36.99  
Braintree_Town     14    9  -12      -9.47     2.74   -11.17    50.97     8.39   -14.24     0.00     0.11     0.02P   31.92R    2.43  
Southport          14    9  -23      -3.29    25.17   -11.15    39.67     8.02   -44.36     0.00     0.00     0.00P   83.64R   27.16  
Guiseley           14    6   -9      -8.61     3.38    -1.69    38.98     8.20   -26.92     0.00     0.00     0.00P   83.62R   27.56