Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 6 September 2016 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 28 August 2016, Man_City 3 1 West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City          3    9   +6       2.57    85.98     2.19    77.33     9.79    38.63    46.37    66.83    79.13    86.98    95.13     0.01R    0.00  
Chelsea           3    9   +5       3.26    90.89     2.53    69.52     9.91    23.96    15.71    33.96    50.12    63.32    81.89     0.04R    0.00  
Man_Utd           3    9   +5       3.57    93.03     3.04    68.79     9.59    22.11    13.10    30.65    46.65    60.66    80.38     0.05R    0.00  
Everton           3    7   +2       2.43    85.76     1.34    57.55     9.83     5.37     1.66     5.39    11.08    18.67    37.85     1.41R    0.20  
Hull              3    6   +2       2.63    85.85     2.98    48.01    10.00    -6.60     0.23     0.91     2.12     4.08    10.90    11.09R    2.47  
Middlesbrough     3    5   +1       1.01    67.98     1.05    43.31     9.55   -12.61     0.04     0.21     0.63     1.39     4.44    21.54R    6.00  
Tottenham         3    5   +1      -0.11    47.86    -0.46    63.61     9.82    16.80     5.58    15.51    27.12    39.50    62.81     0.32R    0.04  
Arsenal           3    4   +1      -1.35    30.18    -0.88    67.68     9.70    24.83    11.55    27.58    43.29    57.06    77.67     0.09R    0.01  
Leicester         3    4   +0      -0.53    43.29    -0.60    57.63     9.83     8.26     1.71     5.62    11.49    19.12    38.37     1.45R    0.17  
West_Brom         3    4   +0       0.19    55.60     0.33    42.58     8.97   -13.24     0.01     0.09     0.30     0.78     2.97    22.18R    5.83  
Liverpool         3    4   -1       0.03    53.98    -0.68    59.26    10.20     9.79     2.73     8.16    15.62    24.57    45.19     1.14R    0.22  
West_Ham          3    3   -2      -0.62    38.73    -1.08    52.28     9.82    -0.46     0.43     1.75     4.32     8.13    19.88     4.62R    0.85  
Burnley           3    3   -2      -0.09    49.25    -0.44    42.03     9.62   -15.00     0.03     0.15     0.41     0.95     3.39    26.15R    8.22  
Swansea           3    3   -2      -0.73    37.92    -1.49    43.92     9.40   -12.73     0.04     0.20     0.57     1.31     4.42    19.42R    5.36  
Southampton       3    2   -2      -2.78    11.95    -3.02    54.68     9.68     4.78     0.80     2.79     6.51    11.71    27.18     2.63R    0.47  
Sunderland        3    1   -2      -1.79    23.60     0.28    38.64     9.15   -18.35     0.00     0.03     0.11     0.31     1.30    38.13R   13.60  
Crystal_Palace    3    1   -2      -2.67    13.06    -1.40    38.70     8.96   -16.75     0.01     0.03     0.10     0.23     1.16    37.12R   12.41  
Watford           3    1   -3      -1.52    29.17    -0.51    40.42     9.30   -16.39     0.00     0.05     0.19     0.50     2.05    31.18R   10.43  
Bournemouth       3    1   -3      -1.86    24.27    -0.97    35.45     9.19   -26.39     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.12     0.65    52.63R   24.51  
Stoke             3    1   -4      -2.00    21.19    -2.23    40.96     9.27   -16.00     0.01     0.07     0.23     0.60     2.36    28.80R    9.22  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 27 August 2016, Barnsley 4 0 Rotherham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Huddersfield     5   13   +4       6.32    98.73     4.43    66.38    10.47    -1.06     2.67     6.57    27.60    10.31P    3.94R    0.77  
Fulham           5   11   +3       4.77    94.03     4.02    66.12    10.79    -0.15     2.87     7.10    27.95    10.93P    4.55R    0.81  
Barnsley         5    9   +4       2.57    79.75     4.78    57.61    11.17    -9.65     0.69     1.90    10.08     3.36P   19.12R    5.55  
Newcastle        5    9   +4      -0.17    45.90     0.38    80.86    11.14    28.82    29.57    46.76    78.23    57.34P    0.22R    0.04  
QPR              5    9   +3       1.59    69.54     2.20    69.79    10.66    10.24     5.66    12.64    40.47    19.35P    1.95R    0.29  
Bristol_City     5    9   +2       2.65    80.60     2.92    61.25    10.60    -4.90     1.06     2.86    15.04     5.21P   10.09R    2.24  
Nott'm_Forest    5    9   +0       1.81    72.45    -0.38    63.05    10.52    -3.46     1.42     3.75    19.05     6.79P    7.33R    1.47  
Brighton         5    8   +4       0.17    53.30     2.31    76.74    10.50    22.97    15.77    30.57    66.98    41.87P    0.34R    0.05  
Wolverhampton    5    8   +3       0.74    60.51     2.38    67.00    10.50     7.44     3.06     7.67    31.01    13.29P    3.26R    0.56  
Birmingham       5    8   +2       0.88    62.27     1.59    64.49    10.33     2.72     1.75     4.68    22.44     8.61P    5.16R    1.02  
Ipswich          5    8   +1       0.63    59.15     0.23    67.06    10.46     5.66     3.16     7.53    30.55    12.95P    3.25R    0.56  
Norwich          5    8   +1       0.07    51.49    -0.71    76.39    11.27    20.05    17.01    30.43    64.31    40.80P    0.61R    0.07  
Burton_Albion    5    7   +1       1.16    66.32     2.47    51.75    10.72   -16.81     0.14     0.40     3.47     0.92P   36.06R   13.65  
Brentford        5    7   +1      -0.95    38.30    -0.60    65.69    10.69     4.64     2.76     6.68    26.96    11.44P    4.69R    0.93  
Reading          5    7   -3       1.68    73.49    -0.56    59.74    10.53    -8.47     0.68     1.98    11.83     3.84P   12.81R    3.09  
Aston_Villa      5    5   +0      -2.01    25.34    -0.38    63.00    11.05     3.09     1.79     4.49    20.63     8.65P    8.08R    1.76  
Cardiff          5    5   -2      -2.25    23.40    -2.55    59.92    10.31    -3.48     0.71     1.91    11.84     4.11P   11.65R    2.75  
Derby            5    5   -2      -2.69    19.45    -3.26    70.87    10.45    13.01     6.31    14.05    44.61    22.99P    1.48R    0.20  
Sheff_Wed        5    5   -3      -1.82    27.76    -2.96    64.26    10.35     2.09     1.73     4.49    21.84     8.90P    5.40R    1.04  
Wigan            5    4   +0      -3.17    15.33    -0.40    58.32    11.28    -3.17     0.79     2.04    11.48     4.29P   17.02R    5.01  
Leeds_United     5    4   -4      -1.64    29.95    -2.16    53.66    10.18   -14.20     0.11     0.43     3.87     1.05P   27.88R    8.80  
Rotherham        5    4   -9      -0.51    45.93    -5.00    45.49     9.98   -34.03     0.00     0.04     0.63     0.14P   61.25R   31.44  
Preston          5    3   -2      -2.98    14.80    -0.96    56.86    10.03    -4.40     0.22     0.81     6.73     2.21P   17.54R    4.52  
Blackburn        5    1   -8      -5.70     2.05    -7.81    51.27    10.20   -16.94     0.05     0.21     2.38     0.66P   36.32R   13.38  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 4 September 2016, Gillingham 1 2 Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Bolton            6   14   +4       4.08    88.55     1.50    76.22    11.47    15.14    16.01    28.01    61.20    36.30P    0.98R    0.07  
Bradford          6   12   +4       3.17    83.15     3.16    75.08    10.32    16.33    10.87    22.01    58.84    32.09P    0.72R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town    6   11   +5       2.60    78.68     4.71    66.63    10.52     6.41     2.64     6.54    28.11    11.26P    4.73R    0.39  
Millwall          6   11   +2       1.47    66.97     0.13    79.08    10.82    22.63    21.29    36.60    72.08    47.10P    0.41R    0.02  
Scunthorpe        5   10   +6       1.93    73.69     4.10    73.23    11.03    16.54     9.88    19.59    52.10    27.91P    1.55R    0.12  
Peterborough      6   10   +5       0.93    60.58     3.76    75.23    11.12    21.39    13.26    25.19    59.48    34.22P    1.13R    0.09  
Port_Vale         6   10   +1       2.02    72.96     1.32    64.14    10.50    -0.15     1.58     4.17    20.44     7.69P    7.71R    0.89  
Gillingham        6   10   -2       1.16    63.57    -2.87    67.44    10.87     1.41     3.46     8.07    30.53    13.20P    4.96R    0.52  
Bury              6    8   +3       0.67    59.68     4.49    58.03    10.59    -5.09     0.41     1.29     9.04     2.69P   20.04R    3.35  
Charlton          5    8   +2       0.12    51.97     0.42    68.94    11.59     9.01     5.48    11.54    37.12    18.19P    4.53R    0.53  
Northampton       6    8   +1       0.43    56.55     1.94    55.95    11.12    -9.98     0.46     1.20     7.18     2.45P   27.60R    5.96  
Swindon           5    8   +0       1.37    68.36     0.56    67.52    11.10     4.86     3.72     8.50    31.67    13.66P    5.05R    0.60  
Chesterfield      6    7   +0      -1.30    36.44    -0.05    60.13    10.74    -3.29     0.77     2.19    12.47     4.46P   15.38R    2.34  
MK_Dons           6    7   -2      -1.64    32.59    -2.63    67.37    11.36     6.32     3.89     8.61    31.50    14.95P    5.58R    0.63  
Oxford_Utd        6    7   -2      -0.40    46.81    -0.81    55.72    10.90   -11.33     0.30     0.90     6.44     2.10P   27.79R    6.07  
Shrewsbury        6    7   -3       0.01    51.45    -1.05    53.60    10.44   -16.91     0.18     0.53     3.90     1.14P   34.63R    7.97  
Sheff_Utd         6    7   -3      -1.40    34.31    -3.15    64.83    10.65     1.59     1.82     4.77    22.71     9.25P    7.09R    0.85  
Oldham            6    6   -3      -1.04    38.36    -1.33    53.07    10.08   -13.82     0.11     0.30     3.10     0.79P   35.38R    7.81  
Walsall           5    5   -1      -3.39    13.58    -3.34    66.25    10.92     6.53     2.80     6.71    27.77    12.29P    5.73R    0.67  
AFC_Wimbledon     6    5   -3      -0.71    44.11     0.93    44.47    10.33   -27.34     0.00     0.03     0.62     0.13P   68.31R   31.51  
Southend          6    5   -3      -2.32    25.00    -1.64    53.95    10.34   -12.04     0.15     0.50     4.12     1.24P   32.46R    7.13  
Bristol_Rovers    4    4   -2      -0.45    46.38    -0.35    50.96    11.57   -18.78     0.16     0.46     3.66     1.12P   44.86R   14.77  
Coventry          6    3   -5      -5.59     3.75    -5.65    58.46    10.44    -3.91     0.46     1.34     9.05     3.35P   18.17R    2.92  
Rochdale          6    2   -4      -6.34     2.31    -4.18    56.17    10.69    -5.52     0.29     0.93     6.86     2.42P   25.18R    4.77  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 September 2016, Carlisle 1 1 Accrington_Stanley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Luton                 6   13   +9       3.37    84.06     6.90    75.70    10.98    21.06    12.65    35.29    67.11    43.21P    0.16R    0.06  
Morecambe             6   12   +2       4.91    91.96     3.89    63.05    10.85    -5.12     1.41     6.30    22.90     9.11P    3.70R    1.46  
Plymouth              6   12   +1       2.73    78.86    -0.57    76.77    10.51    15.84    13.26    37.44    70.35    46.63P    0.11R    0.04  
Portsmouth            6   11   +4       0.90    60.41     1.23    76.58    10.55    20.04    13.74    37.85    70.51    47.42P    0.10R    0.03  
Mansfield             6   11   +1       2.97    81.88     1.22    64.25    10.61    -0.99     1.52     7.19    25.79    10.94P    2.62R    1.00  
Doncaster             6   10   +3      -0.66    41.59    -0.64    79.55    11.43    25.49    23.06    49.63    77.31    58.52P    0.11R    0.04  
Leyton_Orient         6   10   +3       0.22    52.24     0.67    71.07    10.85    12.51     5.83    20.90    50.70    28.46P    0.60R    0.21  
Colchester            6   10   +2       0.36    54.05    -0.25    70.93    11.99    11.22     7.64    22.83    50.09    29.80P    1.15R    0.41  
Carlisle              6   10   +2       1.98    72.17     2.29    67.23    10.86     5.55     2.88    12.02    36.59    17.33P    1.60R    0.57  
Crewe                 6    9   +0       0.40    55.05    -0.63    66.44    11.60     3.81     3.32    12.35    34.67    17.55P    2.50R    0.92  
Blackpool             6    8   +3      -1.92    29.01     0.55    73.32    11.21    18.56     9.28    28.20    59.20    38.14P    0.42R    0.15  
Notts_County          6    8   +0      -0.07    50.48     0.25    55.33    10.78   -12.49     0.24     1.64     8.14     2.87P   13.64R    6.28  
Crawley_Town          6    8   -3       1.41    68.51    -0.48    53.14    10.43   -17.58     0.10     0.87     5.02     1.59P   18.55R    9.12  
Grimsby               6    7   +2      -0.55    44.90     3.17    56.28    11.43    -7.17     0.49     2.61    10.92     4.37P   13.06R    6.37  
Stevenage             6    7   -1      -1.03    39.09    -0.61    58.20    10.73    -7.06     0.41     2.57    12.31     4.57P    8.36R    3.76  
Barnet                5    6   +1      -0.64    42.61     1.29    59.71    11.13    -3.00     0.76     3.87    16.04     6.47P    7.34R    3.28  
Cheltenham            6    6   +0      -1.45    34.26     0.94    61.58    11.16     1.75     1.04     5.37    20.48     8.93P    5.19R    2.31  
Exeter                6    6   -3      -1.61    31.87    -1.96    57.60    10.74    -8.13     0.38     2.25    11.15     4.13P    9.48R    4.12  
Hartlepool            6    6   -5      -0.43    46.36    -1.94    45.96    10.17   -29.29     0.02     0.13     1.13     0.26P   42.91R   26.97  
Newport_County        5    5   -1      -0.65    43.78     0.83    52.41    10.51   -13.86     0.11     0.63     4.65     1.38P   19.82R    9.96  
Accrington_Stanley    6    5   -3      -3.53    15.47    -3.47    62.71    10.94     1.14     1.31     6.26    22.96    10.47P    4.05R    1.65  
Wycombe               6    5   -5      -2.83    20.27    -4.58    58.41    10.37    -6.07     0.35     2.20    11.72     4.38P    7.44R    2.96  
Yeovil                6    4   -6      -2.63    21.11    -3.77    50.90    10.13   -16.64     0.04     0.36     2.99     0.86P   23.69R   12.00  
Cambridge_Utd         6    3   -6      -4.18     9.69    -4.34    55.27    10.54    -9.56     0.17     1.24     7.28     2.62P   13.39R    6.35  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 September 2016, Aldershot 3 1 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Forest_Green        8   19  +10       4.16    86.07     3.88    87.31     9.81    35.67    31.69    82.57    46.87P    0.01R    0.00  
Tranmere            8   19   +6       4.18    86.60     0.06    84.13     9.92    25.93    20.05    72.23    35.27P    0.02R    0.00  
Lincoln_City        8   18  +13       4.78    89.47     9.27    78.26    10.29    25.96     8.87    51.06    17.72P    0.15R    0.00  
Aldershot           8   16   +5       5.09    90.60     5.08    66.84    10.06     2.64     0.90    13.20     3.03P    2.33R    0.05  
Macclesfield        8   15   +5       1.86    68.13     1.60    74.80    10.00    16.84     4.21    37.02    11.89P    0.26R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red           8   15   +5       0.21    51.18    -0.90    81.34    10.43    27.85    14.71    62.03    28.79P    0.07R    0.00  
Eastleigh           8   14   +7       0.48    55.03     2.66    74.97    10.24    20.71     4.85    38.59    12.65P    0.36R    0.00  
Barrow              8   14   +0       3.50    81.94     0.94    61.59    10.05    -8.23     0.29     5.41     1.07P    7.38R    0.45  
Gateshead           8   13   +7       1.35    63.58     6.17    69.23    10.18    13.30     1.52    19.50     4.91P    1.45R    0.04  
Dover_Athletic      8   13   +2      -0.20    47.77    -1.48    72.04    10.32    12.96     2.83    27.66     8.47P    0.89R    0.02  
Sutton_United       8   13   +0       4.05    85.39     3.44    59.56    11.00    -8.89     0.25     4.90     0.95P   12.94R    1.19  
Boreham_Wood        8   12   +4       2.48    75.41     5.98    64.70     9.80     5.54     0.35     8.83     1.83P    3.55R    0.11  
Wrexham             8   12   -2       0.23    52.61    -3.21    68.78    10.02     5.20     1.22    16.92     4.62P    1.71R    0.04  
York                8   11   +1      -2.38    27.17    -2.97    76.90    10.83    23.51     7.87    46.13    19.07P    0.34R    0.01  
Maidstone_United    8   11   -1       2.57    75.49     3.05    57.50    11.15   -11.24     0.14     3.66     0.74P   17.73R    2.07  
Torquay             8   10   -2      -0.49    45.78    -1.26    57.30     9.87   -10.38     0.05     2.07     0.40P   14.89R    1.15  
Solihull_Moors      8   10   -4       1.33    64.98     0.24    50.34    10.59   -24.50     0.03     0.72     0.17P   39.07R    6.47  
Bromley             8    8   -5      -1.88    33.12    -3.12    53.33     9.97   -17.99     0.02     0.99     0.19P   26.59R    2.94  
Chester             8    7   -2      -2.87    23.60     0.01    56.35    10.17    -8.11     0.05     1.94     0.34P   17.57R    1.71  
North_Ferriby       8    7  -10      -0.51    46.46    -3.87    41.64    10.08   -39.06     0.00     0.08     0.01P   71.97R   24.64  
Braintree_Town      8    6   -4      -6.18     5.32    -5.81    59.43     9.65    -1.53     0.06     3.03     0.72P    9.43R    0.53  
Woking              8    4   -9      -5.93     5.84    -6.94    55.09    10.16   -11.99     0.03     1.42     0.29P   21.09R    2.25  
Southport           8    4  -16      -2.58    23.56    -8.21    43.29     9.55   -37.56     0.00     0.03     0.00P   66.78R   18.59  
Guiseley            8    1  -10      -6.77     1.68    -4.61    37.77     9.38   -36.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.43R   37.72