Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 6 May 2016 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 2 May 2016, Chelsea 2 2 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        36   77  +30      19.76    98.80    18.32    79.69     1.82    29.90   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        36   70  +39       4.74    70.17    14.59    73.77     1.80    40.55     0.00    94.02   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          36   67  +25       0.12    50.00    -1.51    70.62     1.62    26.52     0.00     5.73    68.72    98.19   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         36   64  +30      -7.62    18.66    -5.87    67.59     1.83    31.27     0.00     0.25    30.30    76.72   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          35   60  +12       1.06    54.71    -3.93    65.51     2.17    14.11     0.00     0.00     0.86    18.80    92.74     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         35   59  +17       6.98    78.61    11.25    63.57     2.26    17.67     0.00     0.00     0.12     6.28    81.55     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      36   57  +14      -0.57    47.63     1.88    59.92     1.76    14.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.66     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        35   55  +11      -1.45    43.33    -1.93    60.05     2.26    12.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.04     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          35   48   +7     -13.66     6.13   -13.97    53.00     2.27     8.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stoke            36   48  -14       4.78    71.27    -4.71    50.51     1.80   -14.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Everton          35   44   +6      -7.87    18.86     0.53    48.83     2.22     7.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Watford          35   44   -6       3.37    65.75     5.13    47.85     2.20    -6.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Swansea          36   43  -13      -0.94    46.51    -4.75    44.77     1.67   -14.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        36   41  -14       0.56    53.44    -1.07    43.34     1.81   -14.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      36   41  -20       3.42    65.90     0.51    43.09     1.68   -21.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   36   39  -10      -2.52    39.06     1.36    41.28     1.72   -10.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Newcastle        36   33  -25      -2.86    37.76    -2.30    35.22     1.74   -25.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.05R    0.00  
Sunderland       35   32  -18      -4.39    30.45     0.40    35.01     2.13   -19.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.86R    0.00  
Norwich          35   31  -26      -3.67    33.94    -3.93    33.91     2.09   -27.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.09R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      36   16  -45     -12.04     4.78   -10.01    17.62     1.54   -47.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 2 May 2016, Brighton 1 1 Derby; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         45   90  +34       9.80    83.34     6.98    91.94     1.24    34.80    85.76   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   45   88  +32       8.77    81.32     6.77    89.69     1.27    32.43    10.01    76.58   100.00    84.04P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        45   88  +30      14.68    92.75    12.80    89.01     1.18    29.57     4.23    23.42   100.00    42.69P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            45   80  +30       0.79    52.70     4.73    82.20     1.15    31.21     0.00     0.00   100.00    32.05P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           45   78  +24       1.41    55.27     1.56    79.84     1.28    24.68     0.00     0.00   100.00    23.36P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       45   74  +22       6.01    72.35    12.23    75.28     1.27    21.91     0.00     0.00   100.00    17.87P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         45   67   +5       4.12    65.97     2.54    68.62     1.29     5.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         45   66   +1       1.57    56.29    -3.69    66.91     1.18     0.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      45   62   +4       1.76    57.26     5.25    63.10     1.23     3.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Brentford       45   62   +1      -2.05    42.56    -2.53    63.35     1.32     0.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Preston         45   61   +0       2.07    58.63     2.38    62.61     1.28     0.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    45   58   -8       2.72    61.23     0.52    59.09     1.22    -8.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
QPR             45   57   -1      -6.77    26.12    -4.61    58.83     1.29    -0.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   45   55   -6      -6.97    24.64    -7.11    56.43     1.29    -5.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       45   52   -2      -9.37    17.64    -2.67    53.64     1.28    -1.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Reading         45   52   -5      -5.28    30.33     0.74    53.07     1.22    -5.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   45   52   -5      -7.40    22.96    -2.80    53.41     1.29    -4.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    45   52  -16      -2.33    41.78    -4.56    52.93     1.21   -16.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    45   51   -7      -4.06    34.86     3.05    52.41     1.33    -6.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       45   49  -14      -1.04    46.59     3.14    49.58     0.98   -15.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          45   48  -14      -6.49    26.41    -1.52    49.90     1.29   -13.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Charlton        45   40  -37      -4.62    32.13   -11.85    40.80     1.12   -37.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
MK_Dons         45   39  -29      -8.82    18.53    -8.85    40.30     1.28   -29.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Bolton          45   30  -39     -14.40     5.85   -12.49    30.88     1.20   -39.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 2 May 2016, Walsall 3 1 Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wigan            45   87  +40       0.93    53.19     3.21    88.95     1.26    40.85   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion    45   84  +20      16.28    94.37    10.80    85.43     1.29    20.10     0.00    92.28   100.00    94.17P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          45   81  +17      12.24    88.50     6.38    82.36     1.30    16.99     0.00     7.72   100.00    30.86P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         45   78  +23       3.34    62.43     3.56    79.35     1.31    22.96     0.00     0.00   100.00    31.29P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         45   77  +13      10.43    85.14     5.40    78.68     1.29    13.44     0.00     0.00   100.00    21.66P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley         45   71  +13       1.80    56.97     1.72    71.82     1.15    12.15     0.00     0.00    45.15    10.47P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       45   71  +11       6.78    74.57     7.08    72.08     1.24    10.59     0.00     0.00    32.39     6.40P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       45   69  +16       1.14    54.31     6.76    70.40     1.32    16.04     0.00     0.00    22.46     5.15P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         45   66  +16      -1.54    44.14     7.17    67.46     1.30    16.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        45   66   +7      -2.84    39.42    -3.76    67.66     1.30     7.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rochdale         45   66   +6       1.38    55.65     1.89    67.68     1.34     6.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        45   65   +3       3.90    65.15     3.70    66.37     1.30     3.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     45   60   +5      -6.22    27.86    -1.61    61.86     1.28     5.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Southend         45   59   -5       2.91    61.59     2.95    60.31     1.30    -5.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bury             45   57  -18       6.79    75.12    -0.15    58.42     1.31   -17.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Swindon          45   56  -10      -6.67    25.98   -11.10    57.80     1.31    -9.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Oldham           45   54  -12       0.04    51.08    -1.55    55.26     1.28   -12.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield     45   53  -10      -7.60    23.25    -8.08    54.05     1.23   -10.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury       45   50  -18      -4.29    34.31    -6.26    50.98     1.23   -18.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town   45   48   -6      -8.29    20.81     1.16    49.87     1.27    -5.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.69R    0.00  
Blackpool        45   46  -19      -6.92    24.98    -7.24    46.90     1.19   -19.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.31R    0.00  
Doncaster        45   45  -16     -10.98    13.84    -7.83    46.28     1.27   -16.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Colchester       45   40  -41      -3.90    35.37    -9.75    41.11     1.29   -41.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Crewe            45   34  -35      -8.63    18.04    -4.45    34.89     1.18   -35.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 April 2016, Barnet 3 4 Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Northampton          45   96  +35      19.36    97.06    12.54    97.31     1.31    34.90   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   45   84  +26      14.91    92.10    14.97    85.67     1.32    26.44     0.00    81.12   100.00    85.65P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           45   83  +40       4.46    66.67    15.08    84.64     1.29    40.37     0.00    72.07   100.00    81.32P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       45   82  +30       8.19    77.81    12.23    84.01     1.24    30.95     0.00    46.81   100.00    62.73P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           45   78  +32       2.84    60.45    12.04    79.44     1.32    32.10     0.00     0.00   100.00    27.40P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             45   78  +21       5.50    69.98     5.21    79.92     1.25    21.79     0.00     0.00   100.00    25.55P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        45   72  +13       7.20    75.63     8.29    73.71     1.29    13.49     0.00     0.00   100.00    17.35P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        45   67  +11       3.65    63.64     8.63    68.39     1.30    11.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        45   66   -2      -3.63    36.67   -13.78    67.56     1.30    -1.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              45   64   +4      -2.22    41.53    -3.10    65.07     1.22     3.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Exeter               45   64   +1       1.93    57.47     0.69    65.27     1.30     0.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             45   64   +0       4.10    65.66     3.09    65.38     1.32     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            45   63   +8       3.79    64.83    11.27    64.34     1.30     7.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Luton                45   63   -1      -0.04    50.08    -3.17    64.47     1.32    -0.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnet               45   59   -4       2.32    59.25     4.13    60.42     1.32    -3.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool           45   51  -18       1.59    57.26     0.09    51.83     1.14   -18.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         45   51  -24      -5.13    31.69   -15.31    52.38     1.32   -24.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Yeovil               45   48  -15      -8.96    19.58    -9.11    49.17     1.26   -15.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            45   47  -15     -11.77    12.62   -10.67    48.08     1.26   -15.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         45   47  -30      -5.20    31.44   -15.80    48.34     1.32   -30.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            45   45  -22      -7.87    22.28    -6.67    46.62     1.34   -21.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Newport_County       45   43  -20      -8.56    19.74    -5.64    44.02     1.22   -20.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            45   34  -34     -13.72     7.77   -12.27    34.77     1.12   -34.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   32.95  
York                 45   33  -36     -13.65     8.03   -12.74    34.15     1.30   -36.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   67.05  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 April 2016, Barrow 2 0 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       46  101  +57       6.39    74.10     8.87   101.00     0.00    57.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     46   89  +27      10.58    84.96     4.10    89.00     0.00    27.00     0.00   100.00    27.88P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   46   81  +18      11.03    85.98     7.66    81.00     0.00    18.00     0.00   100.00    17.23P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          46   80  +37      -5.22    29.92     3.68    80.00     0.00    37.00     0.00   100.00    36.97P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   46   80  +22       7.80    77.24     8.33    80.00     0.00    22.00     0.00   100.00    17.92P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         46   78  +17      -1.00    45.55    -6.44    78.00     0.00    17.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        46   75  +11       4.56    67.09     0.06    75.00     0.00    11.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          46   69  +15      -1.79    43.27     3.47    69.00     0.00    15.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        46   67  -11       6.69    74.19    -6.28    67.00     0.00   -11.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     46   66  +12      -3.41    37.09     2.48    66.00     0.00    12.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barrow           46   65   -7       8.95    80.54     4.77    65.00     0.00    -7.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Woking           46   61   +3      -6.49    27.02    -3.29    61.00     0.00     3.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     46   61   +1      -0.98    46.56     3.43    61.00     0.00     1.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bromley          46   60   -5       2.90    61.27     5.37    60.00     0.00    -5.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Aldershot        46   56  -18       0.35    52.12    -6.56    56.00     0.00   -18.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Southport        46   55  -13       2.98    62.25     3.77    55.00     0.00   -13.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Chester          46   54   -4      -3.59    36.88     5.49    54.00     0.00    -4.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Torquay          46   51  -22      -6.59    26.11   -13.11    51.00     0.00   -22.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood     46   50   -5      -5.42    30.42     4.77    50.00     0.00    -5.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Guiseley         46   49  -23       1.30    56.06     0.51    49.00     0.00   -23.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Halifax          46   48  -27      -6.42    26.67   -12.54    48.00     0.00   -27.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Altrincham       46   44  -25      -4.07    34.59    -1.53    44.00     0.00   -25.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Kidderminster    46   40  -22     -13.98     7.87    -8.34    40.00     0.00   -22.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Welling          46   35  -38      -8.57    18.14    -8.65    35.00     0.00   -38.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00