Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 7 April 2016 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 3 April 2016, Leicester 1 0 Southampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        32   69  +24      19.77    99.25    16.09    77.64     3.22    24.61    77.47    94.10    99.33    99.95   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        32   62  +32       5.30    73.92    12.42    72.17     3.19    34.88    11.45    51.61    84.92    96.32   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          31   58  +22       0.85    53.66    -0.35    72.03     3.22    28.97    10.19    44.54    80.38    95.11    99.91     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         31   54  +24      -7.59    16.43    -6.59    67.18     3.39    29.50     0.69     7.30    24.26    64.36    97.82     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          31   53  +12       0.43    51.88    -2.70    65.90     3.35    16.93     0.20     2.38    10.38    37.68    93.65     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         31   51  +12       6.04    76.91     8.56    60.77     3.47    12.30     0.00     0.07     0.62     4.80    53.72     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      32   47   +8      -2.42    38.64    -0.18    56.40     3.13     9.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14     9.45     0.00     0.00  
Stoke            32   47   -3       5.06    73.35    -0.45    54.19     3.10    -4.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.78     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        30   45   +5      -1.32    43.62    -2.73    58.77     3.82     9.26     0.00     0.00     0.11     1.45    30.93     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          31   44   +8     -11.72     7.39   -12.35    55.82     3.53    11.31     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.15    10.73     0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        31   40   -7       2.95    64.95     0.51    47.05     3.23   -10.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          30   38   +9      -7.72    17.23     2.31    50.98     3.79    12.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.97     0.00R    0.00  
Bournemouth      32   38  -16       3.90    68.96     0.72    44.19     3.05   -19.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17R    0.00  
Watford          31   37   -6       1.90    60.15     5.00    46.09     3.42    -6.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.09R    0.00  
Swansea          32   37   -9      -3.14    35.83    -3.40    43.50     3.11   -11.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.26R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   31   34   -8      -2.16    39.98     1.38    41.82     3.29   -10.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.04R    0.00  
Norwich          32   31  -21      -1.68    42.59    -2.49    37.04     2.98   -24.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.62R    0.00  
Sunderland       31   27  -19      -4.36    29.02    -0.97    33.64     3.25   -23.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.98R    0.05  
Newcastle        31   25  -27      -4.31    29.38    -4.91    31.52     3.19   -32.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.83R    0.94  
Aston_Villa      32   16  -40      -9.02     9.50    -9.87    20.97     2.77   -45.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.01  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 5 April 2016, Birmingham 1 2 Brighton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         40   77  +30       6.19    74.02     6.44    87.52     3.15    33.27    41.38    77.16   100.00    84.16P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   39   76  +29       7.37    79.06     7.10    88.12     3.38    32.54    47.75    78.66   100.00    85.62P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        40   75  +18      13.93    93.27     8.40    83.92     3.16    19.16     6.32    23.64    99.91    38.64P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            39   69  +27       0.45    51.45     5.31    82.63     3.35    32.77     4.49    19.33    99.70    47.57P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       40   68  +22       7.23    77.89    12.73    77.11     3.17    23.29     0.03     0.51    87.72    16.77P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           40   67  +19       0.02    49.79     0.64    77.71     3.16    22.72     0.03     0.70    92.38    23.93P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         40   63   +9       5.58    72.44     4.59    71.92     3.21    10.04     0.00     0.00    17.49     2.84P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         40   60   +2       2.24    59.52    -2.83    68.22     3.10     2.13     0.00     0.00     2.46     0.42P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      39   56   +4       3.66    65.83     4.78    64.97     3.40     3.32     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         40   56   +1       2.75    61.86     1.91    63.67     3.06     0.49     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             40   52   +3      -7.02    23.98    -3.61    60.93     3.12     4.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   40   52   -4      -3.97    33.85    -6.13    60.32     3.14    -3.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Reading         39   51   +1      -0.99    46.34     2.41    59.22     3.30    -0.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Brentford       39   49   -6      -3.85    34.35    -5.02    58.56     3.48    -6.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Leeds_United    39   48   -9       0.91    54.69    -0.77    56.00     3.24   -11.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Blackburn       40   46   -1      -8.63    17.81    -1.65    55.07     3.22     0.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   40   46   -6      -5.96    26.13    -2.85    54.22     3.24    -5.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.43R    0.00  
Huddersfield    40   45   -5      -4.27    32.66     3.50    52.53     3.21    -5.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.23R    0.00  
Fulham          40   44   -5      -7.17    22.98     1.50    51.87     3.20    -5.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.62R    0.00  
Bristol_City    40   44  -22      -1.33    45.21    -7.59    50.28     3.09   -25.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.07R    0.00  
Rotherham       40   43  -17       0.47    53.17     1.73    49.49     3.05   -19.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.11R    0.00  
MK_Dons         40   37  -21      -7.52    20.79    -6.47    44.00     3.07   -22.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.72R    0.07  
Charlton        40   36  -34      -3.77    34.05   -11.60    41.56     2.95   -37.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.63R    1.15  
Bolton          40   26  -35     -14.15     5.06   -12.53    31.31     2.86   -39.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   98.78  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 5 April 2016, Fleetwood_Town 2 0 Peterborough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Wigan            40   77  +34       1.13    54.51     2.50    88.10     3.16    38.17    76.54    96.17   100.00    97.61P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion    40   76  +17      16.49    95.60     9.85    84.58     3.25    17.63    19.51    69.97    99.95    76.52P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          38   68  +17       9.32    83.97     7.16    80.59     3.76    19.37     3.30    23.14    97.31    41.93P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       39   67  +21       5.75    72.47     9.32    77.51     3.55    22.36     0.58     7.81    91.18    28.50P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         40   67   +8       9.46    83.92     3.53    75.54     3.22     8.57     0.03     1.01    75.16    16.58P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         40   66  +16       1.96    57.90     2.24    75.88     3.24    18.40     0.02     1.62    82.57    25.28P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley         39   62  +12       1.74    57.33     1.95    72.74     3.44    13.86     0.01     0.29    44.08    11.42P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        40   58   +5      -3.03    37.76    -4.33    66.87     3.30     5.92     0.00     0.00     3.41     0.84P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale         40   58   +5       0.90    53.75     1.78    66.89     3.30     5.92     0.00     0.00     3.02     0.64P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         40   58   +1       6.13    73.81     5.08    65.49     3.13    -0.08     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.16P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         40   57  +15      -3.38    36.38     6.68    65.24     3.20    15.01     0.00     0.00     1.56     0.33P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       40   56   +5       1.40    56.33     5.15    64.57     3.24     5.47     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.11P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        41   56   -4       3.18    63.35     0.78    62.64     2.89    -4.30     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     40   54   +5      -5.28    29.43    -1.57    63.44     3.32     6.78     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          40   51   -9      -5.46    28.82   -11.02    59.66     3.25    -8.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.20R    0.00  
Bury             40   51  -14       5.22    71.27     0.14    57.87     3.17   -16.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.71R    0.00  
Chesterfield     40   46  -10      -7.52    22.03    -7.75    53.97     3.23   -10.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.44R    0.00  
Shrewsbury       39   46  -14      -2.05    42.15    -5.77    53.39     3.38   -17.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.24R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town   40   45   -3      -6.03    26.42     1.95    53.09     3.11    -3.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.36R    0.00  
Blackpool        41   45  -11      -6.45    25.91    -4.80    50.92     2.82   -12.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.03R    0.00  
Oldham           39   44  -11      -2.75    39.20    -1.71    52.17     3.34   -12.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.72R    0.00  
Doncaster        40   38  -17     -10.88    12.21    -8.41    45.28     3.18   -18.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.71R    1.14  
Colchester       40   35  -36      -4.62    31.49    -9.07    41.13     3.13   -39.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.60R   20.51  
Crewe            40   30  -32      -7.13    21.29    -3.68    36.65     3.10   -34.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   78.36  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 5 April 2016, Carlisle 1 0 Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Northampton          40   87  +32      19.37    97.85    12.76    96.62     3.27    34.04    99.72   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           40   73  +33       5.03    69.91    13.69    83.55     3.23    36.35     0.23    76.30    99.99    83.37P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       40   71  +24       7.26    76.77    10.88    81.09     3.23    26.69     0.04    42.88    99.92    57.79P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             40   71  +20       6.19    73.86     5.57    80.75     3.20    22.22     0.01    34.88    99.74    52.79P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   40   71  +19      11.97    88.79    12.91    80.55     3.29    21.01     0.01    32.03    99.68    45.29P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           39   66  +28       1.52    56.14    11.76    77.56     3.53    30.88     0.00    13.85    96.14    37.65P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              40   61   +6       1.03    54.63    -1.77    69.79     3.19     6.89     0.00     0.03    27.49     6.57P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             40   60   +3       5.43    71.34     3.82    68.13     3.30     2.78     0.00     0.00    13.10     2.23P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        40   60   +2      -4.04    34.18   -11.62    69.95     3.24     4.56     0.00     0.00    28.94     7.75P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        39   59   +9       4.09    66.57     6.86    68.90     3.53     9.48     0.00     0.03    25.05     4.69P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               40   59   +2       3.63    64.74     1.47    67.01     3.27     1.65     0.00     0.00     7.21     1.34P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        40   56   +2       3.24    63.57     5.22    64.19     3.28     1.95     0.00     0.00     1.67     0.30P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            40   53   +2       2.83    62.07     8.35    60.60     3.23     1.09     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                39   53   +0      -2.07    41.90    -2.60    62.74     3.53     0.20     0.00     0.00     0.89     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet               40   51   -8       2.92    62.24     2.68    58.26     3.23    -9.43     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         40   47  -20      -2.94    38.77   -12.80    54.39     3.22   -21.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool           39   45  -16       2.24    60.43    -0.51    52.19     3.31   -19.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Morecambe            40   43   -9      -7.83    21.28    -2.10    51.43     3.30    -8.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Yeovil               40   43  -13      -8.39    19.67    -8.92    49.99     3.14   -14.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Notts_County         39   42  -19      -8.23    20.12   -13.76    52.28     3.60   -18.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Newport_County       40   41  -17      -5.41    28.50    -4.93    47.81     3.16   -19.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.28R    0.00  
Stevenage            40   39  -18     -11.80    11.07   -11.86    46.60     3.25   -19.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.74R    0.01  
York                 40   29  -31     -13.68     6.38   -12.40    35.04     3.07   -34.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.43R   43.99  
Dag_&_Red            39   28  -31     -13.57     6.54   -12.73    34.51     3.22   -35.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.49R   56.00  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 5 April 2016, Aldershot 3 4 Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       42   89  +50       3.93    65.66     8.11    97.46     2.38    54.69    95.80   100.00    97.54P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     42   85  +28      12.14    89.56     5.23    91.76     2.56    30.00     4.12   100.00    30.28P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          40   75  +38      -1.43    43.33     5.12    85.61     3.17    41.64     0.08    99.67    37.73P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   41   74  +22       8.07    79.49     7.48    80.59     2.96    21.59     0.00    92.58    14.30P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         42   69  +15      -3.44    36.37    -6.88    75.09     2.64    15.88     0.00    31.09     7.58P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   41   68  +12       7.01    76.89     4.71    74.53     2.82    11.68     0.00    19.50     3.28P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        40   67   +9       5.75    72.78    -0.43    75.93     3.18    10.04     0.00    37.68     5.71P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          41   66  +20       0.43    51.65     6.10    73.58     2.93    21.07     0.00    19.24     3.53P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        42   63  -10       7.75    78.69    -6.08    68.31     2.62   -10.27     0.00     0.08     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     41   60  +12      -2.42    40.08     2.81    67.67     2.93    13.21     0.00     0.15     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley          42   59   +1       4.40    67.20     6.66    65.02     2.69     1.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barrow           41   59   -7       9.50    83.18     4.60    64.63     2.90    -8.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     42   57   +3       0.13    50.85     4.67    62.25     2.54     2.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Woking           41   51   +2      -9.02    17.94    -3.27    57.48     2.94     1.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Aldershot        42   50  -20       0.79    53.90    -7.01    55.35     2.60   -20.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Southport        42   48  -15       1.80    58.31     2.11    53.06     2.58   -15.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Chester          42   45  -10      -4.84    31.28     2.94    49.73     2.49   -11.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.13R    0.00  
Torquay          41   44  -24      -5.64    27.97   -13.35    50.97     2.96   -23.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.85R    0.00  
Guiseley         41   43  -22       0.90    54.72    -0.37    47.75     2.66   -25.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.45R    0.00  
Halifax          40   43  -23      -5.58    28.22   -12.10    49.44     3.04   -26.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.79R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood     42   41   -8      -7.76    21.41     3.56    46.72     2.56    -7.57     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.58R    0.00  
Altrincham       41   40  -23      -2.71    39.22    -1.46    45.37     2.77   -25.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.01R    0.32  
Welling          42   35  -25      -8.23    18.38    -3.91    40.01     2.55   -25.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.22R   19.56  
Kidderminster    41   29  -25     -16.92     2.87    -9.25    35.68     2.96   -25.22     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.95R   80.11