Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 18 March 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 14 March 2016, Leicester 1 0 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        30   63  +22      17.25    98.41    15.24    74.59     3.78    22.89    56.89    82.11    94.60    98.96    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        30   58  +29       5.50    75.33    11.77    71.65     3.72    33.06    26.44    62.06    84.96    95.80    99.76     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          29   52  +16       0.04    49.61    -2.54    69.31     3.79    23.69     9.85    30.72    59.91    85.84    98.48     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         29   51  +21      -6.11    20.89    -6.82    67.87     3.93    27.99     6.23    21.70    47.67    78.02    96.91     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         29   49  +12       7.07    81.57     8.87    61.42     3.99    12.13     0.21     1.11     3.97    12.47    56.51     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   47  +10      -2.26    38.46    -3.94    62.54     3.88    14.80     0.31     1.71     6.26    18.84    69.80     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      30   44   +8      -2.67    37.15    -0.15    56.17     3.70     9.74     0.00     0.02     0.09     0.75    12.41     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        28   44   +6      -0.08    49.43    -2.48    60.24     4.33     9.85     0.08     0.58     2.38     8.13    45.39     0.00     0.00  
Stoke            30   43   -4       4.33    71.08    -0.76    53.04     3.63    -5.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     2.17     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   40   +4     -11.13     7.81   -13.40    55.68     4.02     8.96     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.77    11.89     0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        29   39   -6       4.42    72.09     1.37    49.16     3.81    -9.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          28   38  +12      -6.25    21.33     3.34    53.38     4.29    14.59     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.36     6.16     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      30   38   -9       3.76    68.41     2.68    45.74     3.49   -14.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05R    0.00  
Watford          29   37   -1       2.32    62.27     6.33    48.55     3.90    -2.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   33   -7      -0.90    46.10     1.67    42.98     3.79   -10.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.41R    0.00  
Swansea          30   33  -10      -3.90    31.15    -3.67    42.61     3.65   -11.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.46R    0.00  
Sunderland       29   25  -19      -3.75    31.06    -0.96    34.32     3.83   -23.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.80R    0.58  
Norwich          30   25  -23      -4.38    29.12    -3.62    33.57     3.56   -27.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.73R    0.80  
Newcastle        29   24  -26      -2.81    35.89    -4.53    33.26     3.75   -31.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.58R    2.05  
Aston_Villa      30   16  -35      -8.43    11.11    -8.39    22.53     3.24   -42.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.95R   96.57  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 18 March 2016, Middlesbrough 1 0 Hull; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         37   74  +30       7.49    79.58     6.67    89.93     3.93    35.15    71.79    90.65    99.99    93.73P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   37   70  +25       6.01    75.04     5.85    85.34     3.85    29.26    17.43    56.94    99.89    70.91P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        37   68  +16      12.03    91.20     7.84    80.86     3.91    17.05     2.66    13.04    97.50    30.31P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            37   66  +27       0.51    51.91     5.99    83.34     3.78    34.20     8.02    37.46    99.65    60.54P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   61  +15      -0.11    49.37    -0.73    76.07     3.96    19.10     0.09     1.57    79.07    21.90P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   59  +17       4.82    70.23    11.20    73.05     3.96    19.50     0.01     0.21    54.08    10.63P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   58   +8       4.66    69.77     3.54    70.22     3.93     7.90     0.00     0.02    22.00     3.79P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         37   58   +3       4.50    68.93    -1.50    71.83     3.91     5.41     0.00     0.07    33.38     5.95P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      36   55   +6       6.44    77.08     6.29    68.72     4.17     6.31     0.00     0.03    12.80     1.96P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   52   +1       2.96    63.34     2.11    63.77     3.84     0.60     0.00     0.00     0.83     0.12P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             37   50   +4      -5.08    29.60    -2.76    62.96     3.89     5.11     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.16P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   37   47   -5      -4.78    30.20    -7.02    58.83     3.86    -5.61     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.02R    0.00  
Leeds_United    36   47   -5       2.66    62.50     1.20    59.56     4.04    -6.40     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   46   -1      -3.86    33.61    -0.74    58.23     4.00    -1.03     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Reading         36   44   -1      -2.81    37.87     2.01    56.29     4.06    -2.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16R    0.00  
Blackburn       37   43   +0      -8.21    18.03    -1.63    56.13     3.97     1.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.28R    0.00  
Brentford       36   43  -10      -4.16    32.50    -6.51    56.84     4.23    -9.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.33R    0.00  
Huddersfield    37   42   -4      -3.80    33.97     3.48    52.71     3.91    -6.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.21R    0.00  
Bristol_City    37   40  -24      -0.02    51.07    -8.16    50.07     3.82   -27.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.56R    0.08  
Fulham          37   37   -7      -9.64    14.56     0.18    48.56     3.97    -8.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.61R    0.20  
MK_Dons         37   37  -18      -5.12    28.75    -6.09    47.79     3.92   -20.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.18R    0.26  
Rotherham       37   36  -19      -2.18    40.88     0.23    45.43     3.78   -23.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.29R    1.06  
Charlton        37   32  -32      -5.18    27.54   -11.80    40.05     3.60   -38.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.12R   20.85  
Bolton          37   26  -26     -13.72     5.27    -9.65    35.13     3.74   -31.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.19R   77.55  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 15 March 2016, Fleetwood_Town 0 1 Walsall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    36   71  +15      18.04    97.48     9.41    85.78     4.26    16.67    53.95    79.23    99.86    83.45P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            36   65  +25      -0.85    45.63     0.45    82.77     4.23    30.84    28.18    61.69    99.15    75.52P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   65  +18       9.01    84.00     8.13    80.96     4.20    21.42    12.72    37.52    97.61    52.80P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       36   62  +20       5.40    72.04     8.99    77.01     4.33    21.90     3.52    13.13    86.15    30.09P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         36   59  +14       1.69    57.15     2.00    75.32     4.31    17.86     1.33     6.23    75.51    25.19P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         36   58   +6       6.44    76.35     2.40    71.71     4.22     6.15     0.15     1.05    39.05     8.68P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         36   55  +18      -0.88    46.46     8.28    69.80     4.26    19.72     0.05     0.53    29.67     7.80P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley         36   55   +9       0.12    50.64     0.89    70.31     4.24    11.58     0.07     0.42    30.38     7.31P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   55   +3       5.20    71.67     4.07    67.27     4.01     2.91     0.00     0.02     8.96     1.62P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         36   54   +4       5.98    74.51     5.60    66.93     4.19     2.95     0.01     0.07     8.83     1.66P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        36   52   +5      -3.29    35.95    -3.91    67.03     4.28     6.96     0.00     0.06    10.78     2.81P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale         36   51   +2       0.47    52.18     0.34    65.19     4.30     2.62     0.00     0.02     4.39     0.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       36   51   +0       3.48    65.37     2.61    64.26     4.26    -0.71     0.00     0.00     2.90     0.56P    0.02R    0.00  
Swindon          35   49   +2      -4.87    29.76    -6.83    65.39     4.57     3.97     0.00     0.03     6.11     1.54P    0.02R    0.00  
Bury             36   48  -13       7.13    78.77     0.36    59.31     4.17   -16.75     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    1.04R    0.00  
Peterborough     36   45   +1      -6.81    23.44    -2.38    60.77     4.36     4.08     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.09P    0.47R    0.00  
Shrewsbury       36   44  -10      -1.52    43.71    -4.40    55.23     4.13   -13.76     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     7.33R    0.00  
Chesterfield     36   41  -11      -6.74    23.20    -8.26    54.47     4.29   -11.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.08R    0.01  
Fleetwood_Town   36   40   -3      -5.89    25.72     1.61    52.88     4.15    -4.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.69R    0.01  
Doncaster        36   37  -12      -8.59    16.80    -6.70    50.21     4.24   -12.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.34R    0.33  
Oldham           35   37  -13      -4.22    31.90    -3.42    49.77     4.36   -16.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.16R    0.32  
Blackpool        37   35  -15      -8.76    17.05    -5.51    46.37     3.96   -16.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.72R    2.31  
Crewe            36   30  -26      -4.62    30.02    -2.55    40.75     4.08   -30.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.44R   24.70  
Colchester       36   28  -39      -5.92    25.09   -11.19    37.27     4.00   -46.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.69R   72.32  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 16 March 2016, Accrington_Stanley 1 1 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Northampton          36   79  +30      18.29    97.85    12.82    95.83     4.35    34.60    96.45    99.95   100.00    99.96P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           37   68  +30       5.69    72.66    12.90    83.80     4.03    35.06     2.38    82.46    99.80    87.57P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             36   65  +19       6.79    77.13     6.16    81.70     4.26    23.33     0.92    60.67    98.67    71.19P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       36   62  +16       7.92    80.26     8.86    78.03     4.31    19.34     0.17    23.79    93.20    40.03P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   36   61  +15       9.18    83.72    11.55    76.64     4.35    17.88     0.04    15.27    86.79    29.20P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           36   59  +23       1.13    55.01    10.42    75.41     4.31    26.97     0.03    12.06    82.09    31.31P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              36   56   +6       1.79    58.23    -1.31    70.97     4.24     7.88     0.00     1.10    38.33    10.38P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        36   56   +4      -3.12    36.69   -10.62    73.55     4.29     9.76     0.00     4.33    64.14    22.75P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        36   53   +8       2.85    62.33     6.91    67.46     4.29     9.12     0.00     0.22    15.87     3.48P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             35   52   +2       4.87    70.27     3.81    66.53     4.53     1.03     0.00     0.12    10.60     2.01P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            36   51   +4       5.18    72.14     8.73    63.38     4.21     2.12     0.00     0.00     2.94     0.49P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        36   51   +2       3.30    64.23     4.76    63.78     4.28     0.61     0.00     0.02     2.95     0.58P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                36   50   +1      -1.21    45.28    -1.82    64.10     4.28     1.59     0.00     0.01     3.39     0.84P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               36   49   -4       1.20    55.50    -1.36    61.91     4.29    -5.25     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.14P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet               36   47   -4       2.30    60.45     3.28    58.91     4.27    -6.70     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         36   45  -15      -1.56    44.03   -10.82    58.51     4.31   -15.33     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County       36   41  -10      -2.99    37.40    -2.41    52.48     4.15   -13.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
Morecambe            36   40   -7      -6.14    25.65    -1.41    53.82     4.34    -7.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Notts_County         35   40  -12      -7.83    19.97   -11.57    55.55     4.63   -11.36     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.04R    0.00  
Yeovil               36   38  -11      -8.91    16.30    -8.00    50.67     4.23   -12.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.45R    0.01  
Hartlepool           34   35  -19      -0.93    46.92    -3.01    46.96     4.42   -25.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.73R    0.38  
Stevenage            36   34  -18     -11.94     9.38   -12.66    45.96     4.24   -20.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.70R    0.36  
York                 36   27  -29     -11.44     9.11   -12.52    36.98     4.00   -34.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.80R   27.60  
Dag_&_Red            37   25  -31     -13.88     5.31   -12.70    33.61     3.75   -36.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.05R   71.64  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 15 March 2016, Braintree_Town 0 0 Gateshead; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       38   83  +47       5.43    72.49     8.40    98.59     3.56    53.89    81.07   100.00    88.80P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     38   81  +28      14.10    93.96     5.66    94.42     3.74    31.81    18.05   100.00    40.17P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          36   69  +39      -1.78    41.07     6.54    86.08     4.18    44.04     0.87    98.54    37.88P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   36   62  +17       5.88    74.06     6.93    77.41     4.31    19.56     0.00    59.43     8.76P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   36   62  +15       6.81    78.07     6.43    75.80     4.11    15.45     0.00    40.19     6.33P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         38   62  +13      -3.32    35.90    -6.53    75.41     3.75    16.55     0.00    38.01     8.75P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        37   62   +8       5.66    72.84    -0.27    76.68     3.96    11.58     0.00    47.60     6.91P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          37   59  +17      -0.21    49.29     4.46    71.28     3.94    16.97     0.00    11.40     1.92P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        38   59   -7       8.12    81.16    -4.81    70.07     3.80    -6.87     0.00     3.75     0.37P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     38   56   +7       2.68    61.21     5.55    66.94     3.71     6.80     0.00     0.82     0.08P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley          38   54   +0       5.27    71.22     6.46    64.83     3.86    -0.30     0.00     0.20     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     37   50   +6      -4.82    30.07    -0.03    62.78     3.97     6.77     0.00     0.07     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           38   49   +3      -7.16    22.29    -2.80    60.59     3.80     3.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barrow           36   46  -14       6.15    75.59     2.37    57.49     4.26   -17.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
Aldershot        37   46  -15       1.49    57.24    -5.51    57.46     3.93   -16.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Chester          37   43   -4      -2.48    39.77     4.68    54.65     3.94    -5.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.47R    0.00  
Southport        38   43  -16       2.62    62.53     1.76    53.04     3.72   -17.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.49R    0.00  
Guiseley         37   41  -19       2.71    62.80    -0.06    50.09     3.78   -23.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.65R    0.00  
Halifax          36   37  -21      -6.88    22.53   -11.61    49.04     4.12   -24.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.29R    0.08  
Boreham_Wood     37   36   -7      -6.56    23.05     3.17    46.81     3.83    -8.91     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.00R    0.13  
Torquay          36   35  -22      -8.73    16.09   -12.92    48.70     4.27   -22.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.74R    0.15  
Altrincham       36   35  -25      -0.39    49.37    -2.60    46.03     4.08   -29.22     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.77R    1.00  
Welling          38   28  -26     -10.39    11.28    -5.69    36.56     3.55   -29.57     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.89R   43.37  
Kidderminster    37   24  -24     -17.33     1.89    -9.58    35.29     3.97   -25.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.55R   55.27