Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 17 March 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 14 March 2016, Leicester 1 0 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        30   63  +22      17.35    98.43    15.39    74.59     3.78    22.86    56.89    82.18    94.46    98.85    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        30   58  +29       5.42    74.90    11.64    71.67     3.73    33.10    26.82    62.02    85.34    95.84    99.78     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          29   52  +16       0.08    49.96    -2.50    69.26     3.80    23.65     9.66    30.28    59.48    85.58    98.44     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         29   51  +21      -6.10    21.06    -6.77    67.90     3.90    28.02     6.06    22.02    47.85    78.30    96.99     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         29   49  +12       6.92    80.92     8.64    61.48     3.99    12.23     0.22     1.17     4.06    12.60    57.39     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   47  +10      -2.17    38.93    -3.82    62.49     3.90    14.72     0.28     1.71     6.21    18.80    69.39     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      30   44   +8      -2.49    37.91     0.08    56.09     3.70     9.66     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.67    12.05     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        28   44   +6      -0.06    49.49    -2.48    60.24     4.33     9.85     0.07     0.60     2.36     8.17    45.11     0.00     0.00  
Stoke            30   43   -4       4.26    70.82    -0.87    53.03     3.65    -5.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     2.09     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   40   +4     -11.17     7.51   -13.48    55.66     4.04     8.93     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.77    12.04     0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        29   39   -6       4.52    72.73     1.48    49.16     3.80    -9.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.26     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          28   38  +12      -6.27    21.02     3.26    53.43     4.26    14.61     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.35     6.22     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      30   38   -9       3.64    68.04     2.51    45.75     3.51   -14.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.04R    0.00  
Watford          29   37   -1       2.21    61.76     6.19    48.61     3.91    -2.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.02R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   33   -7      -0.96    46.19     1.62    43.02     3.78   -10.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.41R    0.00  
Swansea          30   33  -10      -3.92    31.54    -3.70    42.60     3.63   -11.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.36R    0.00  
Sunderland       29   25  -19      -3.64    31.71    -0.79    34.30     3.84   -23.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.64R    0.53  
Norwich          30   25  -23      -4.20    29.73    -3.30    33.51     3.55   -27.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.28R    0.77  
Newcastle        29   24  -26      -2.85    35.73    -4.61    33.26     3.76   -31.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.30R    2.07  
Aston_Villa      30   16  -35      -8.47    10.69    -8.48    22.53     3.23   -42.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.95R   96.64  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 15 March 2016, Brighton 1 0 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         37   74  +30       7.59    80.14     6.80    89.90     3.94    35.10    71.11    91.10    99.99    94.03P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        37   68  +16      11.91    90.86     7.68    80.90     3.92    17.12     2.57    13.73    97.38    31.20P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   36   67  +24       4.77    70.76     5.45    83.67     4.10    28.24    10.94    39.13    99.39    59.29P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            36   66  +28       1.55    56.55     6.57    84.56     4.02    35.09    15.27    54.19    99.80    71.10P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   61  +15       0.07    50.27    -0.51    76.05     3.93    19.04     0.11     1.58    79.03    21.58P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   59  +17       4.59    69.54    10.86    73.08     3.94    19.54     0.01     0.18    54.41    10.59P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   58   +8       4.75    70.23     3.65    70.22     3.93     7.91     0.00     0.01    21.81     3.68P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         37   58   +3       4.53    69.34    -1.45    71.85     3.87     5.42     0.00     0.07    33.33     6.18P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      36   55   +6       6.40    77.10     6.25    68.78     4.18     6.39     0.00     0.01    13.23     2.08P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   52   +1       2.94    63.28     2.05    63.79     3.85     0.63     0.00     0.00     0.85     0.15P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             37   50   +4      -5.20    29.15    -2.98    62.93     3.88     5.12     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.12P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   37   47   -5      -4.90    29.74    -7.20    58.90     3.87    -5.52     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Leeds_United    36   47   -5       2.39    61.48     0.74    59.60     4.03    -6.35     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   46   -1      -3.70    34.23    -0.46    58.20     4.01    -1.10     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.04R    0.00  
Reading         36   44   -1      -3.10    36.72     1.62    56.33     4.10    -2.67     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.16R    0.00  
Blackburn       37   43   +0      -8.06    18.30    -1.42    56.07     3.97     1.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.25R    0.00  
Brentford       36   43  -10      -4.02    33.38    -6.33    56.83     4.22    -9.83     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.34R    0.00  
Huddersfield    37   42   -4      -3.90    33.53     3.30    52.76     3.91    -6.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.22R    0.00  
Bristol_City    37   40  -24      -0.09    50.52    -8.21    50.05     3.81   -27.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.66R    0.11  
Fulham          37   37   -7      -9.59    14.87     0.37    48.57     3.98    -8.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.43R    0.19  
MK_Dons         37   37  -18      -4.91    29.53    -5.76    47.71     3.92   -20.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.69R    0.25  
Rotherham       37   36  -19      -2.02    41.74     0.47    45.39     3.76   -23.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.11R    1.08  
Charlton        37   32  -32      -5.29    27.15   -12.01    40.06     3.61   -38.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.89R   21.00  
Bolton          37   26  -26     -13.65     5.17    -9.50    35.10     3.76   -31.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.20R   77.37  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 15 March 2016, Fleetwood_Town 0 1 Walsall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    36   71  +15      18.31    97.68     9.77    85.70     4.29    16.55    53.12    78.47    99.85    82.69P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            36   65  +25      -0.84    45.67     0.39    82.79     4.22    30.88    28.50    62.13    99.11    75.81P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          36   65  +18       8.85    83.30     7.94    80.98     4.21    21.47    13.11    38.07    97.37    52.82P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       36   62  +20       5.35    71.69     8.98    77.01     4.34    21.92     3.69    13.16    86.22    30.30P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         36   59  +14       1.52    56.40     1.75    75.36     4.32    17.95     1.27     6.04    75.91    24.94P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         36   58   +6       6.44    76.43     2.40    71.72     4.21     6.14     0.17     1.00    39.23     8.84P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         36   55  +18      -0.89    46.39     8.25    69.81     4.29    19.72     0.05     0.51    29.91     7.78P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley         36   55   +9       0.27    51.55     1.14    70.28     4.25    11.53     0.06     0.41    30.03     7.44P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   55   +3       5.16    71.52     4.00    67.28     4.02     2.95     0.00     0.03     9.02     1.68P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         36   54   +4       6.12    75.07     5.79    66.87     4.20     2.89     0.01     0.08     8.49     1.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        36   52   +5      -3.51    34.83    -4.22    67.05     4.31     7.02     0.01     0.06    11.07     2.97P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale         36   51   +2       0.58    52.89     0.52    65.16     4.29     2.54     0.00     0.01     4.34     0.93P    0.01R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       36   51   +0       3.50    65.38     2.66    64.23     4.26    -0.73     0.00     0.00     2.95     0.51P    0.01R    0.00  
Swindon          35   49   +2      -4.72    30.17    -6.62    65.35     4.55     3.90     0.00     0.03     5.95     1.51P    0.02R    0.00  
Bury             36   48  -13       7.14    78.77     0.37    59.31     4.19   -16.75     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    1.02R    0.00  
Peterborough     36   45   +1      -6.72    23.60    -2.29    60.76     4.36     4.10     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.10P    0.50R    0.00  
Shrewsbury       36   44  -10      -1.56    43.82    -4.46    55.21     4.15   -13.79     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     7.45R    0.00  
Chesterfield     36   41  -11      -6.85    22.86    -8.48    54.50     4.26   -11.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.77R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town   36   40   -3      -6.06    25.25     1.36    52.90     4.16    -4.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.68R    0.01  
Doncaster        36   37  -12      -8.52    17.03    -6.64    50.20     4.27   -12.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.48R    0.41  
Oldham           35   37  -13      -4.15    32.14    -3.37    49.75     4.33   -16.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.18R    0.32  
Blackpool        37   35  -15      -8.87    16.41    -5.64    46.40     3.95   -16.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.58R    2.26  
Crewe            36   30  -26      -4.59    30.29    -2.48    40.75     4.05   -30.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.61R   24.60  
Colchester       36   28  -39      -5.86    25.30   -11.17    37.28     3.99   -46.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.68R   72.40  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 16 March 2016, Accrington_Stanley 1 1 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Northampton          36   79  +30      18.30    97.89    12.86    95.76     4.32    34.50    96.54    99.95   100.00    99.95P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           37   68  +30       5.62    72.59    12.82    83.77     4.04    35.03     2.38    82.34    99.82    87.45P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             36   65  +19       6.89    77.41     6.30    81.74     4.23    23.39     0.82    60.49    98.76    70.99P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       36   62  +16       7.75    79.72     8.65    78.08     4.33    19.43     0.19    24.16    93.14    40.79P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   36   61  +15       9.35    84.08    11.84    76.58     4.34    17.79     0.05    14.99    86.62    28.80P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           36   59  +23       1.02    54.49    10.30    75.43     4.29    27.02     0.03    12.25    82.29    32.00P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              36   56   +6       1.68    57.48    -1.45    71.03     4.25     7.97     0.00     1.29    39.02    10.55P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        36   56   +4      -2.96    37.46   -10.42    73.48     4.33     9.69     0.00     4.20    63.51    22.14P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        36   53   +8       2.71    61.46     6.71    67.41     4.28     9.09     0.00     0.15    15.76     3.32P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             35   52   +2       4.70    69.76     3.57    66.50     4.52     1.04     0.00     0.15    10.55     2.03P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            36   51   +4       5.35    72.80     9.02    63.37     4.22     2.11     0.00     0.01     2.81     0.48P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        36   51   +2       3.21    63.93     4.58    63.76     4.28     0.59     0.00     0.01     3.14     0.57P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                36   50   +1      -1.27    44.58    -1.92    64.12     4.28     1.60     0.00     0.01     3.31     0.69P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               36   49   -4       1.24    55.82    -1.25    61.91     4.29    -5.21     0.00     0.00     0.94     0.17P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet               36   47   -4       2.26    60.29     3.18    58.90     4.25    -6.74     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         36   45  -15      -1.81    42.67   -11.20    58.62     4.30   -15.18     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County       36   41  -10      -3.20    36.57    -2.71    52.51     4.15   -13.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09R    0.00  
Morecambe            36   40   -7      -5.99    26.36    -1.22    53.85     4.34    -7.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Notts_County         35   40  -12      -7.74    20.53   -11.46    55.54     4.59   -11.40     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.05R    0.00  
Yeovil               36   38  -11      -8.89    16.86    -7.96    50.65     4.24   -12.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.42R    0.01  
Hartlepool           34   35  -19      -0.61    48.19    -2.48    46.90     4.45   -26.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.99R    0.39  
Stevenage            36   34  -18     -11.84     9.60   -12.51    45.97     4.24   -20.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.61R    0.44  
York                 36   27  -29     -11.40     9.14   -12.42    36.97     4.00   -34.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.69R   27.83  
Dag_&_Red            37   25  -31     -13.97     5.20   -12.86    33.64     3.77   -36.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.02R   71.33  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 15 March 2016, Braintree_Town 0 0 Gateshead; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       38   83  +47       5.56    73.11     8.54    98.58     3.56    53.88    80.95   100.00    88.59P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     38   81  +28      13.89    93.73     5.36    94.41     3.75    31.79    18.16   100.00    40.24P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          36   69  +39      -1.87    40.47     6.38    86.10     4.20    44.07     0.89    98.44    37.58P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   36   62  +17       5.86    73.89     6.92    77.39     4.29    19.54     0.00    59.13     8.77P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   36   62  +15       6.89    78.32     6.54    75.78     4.13    15.41     0.00    40.10     6.38P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         38   62  +13      -3.60    34.70    -6.91    75.44     3.76    16.61     0.00    38.41     9.45P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        37   62   +8       5.68    72.82    -0.23    76.68     3.98    11.58     0.00    47.57     6.49P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          37   59  +17      -0.39    48.17     4.17    71.37     3.93    17.08     0.00    11.70     2.02P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        38   59   -7       8.20    81.40    -4.68    70.05     3.81    -6.89     0.00     3.66     0.36P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     38   56   +7       2.67    61.69     5.53    66.97     3.68     6.83     0.00     0.77     0.08P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley          38   54   +0       5.23    70.89     6.43    64.83     3.88    -0.31     0.00     0.14     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     37   50   +6      -4.84    30.00    -0.09    62.83     3.98     6.82     0.00     0.06     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           38   49   +3      -7.26    22.06    -3.04    60.61     3.80     3.84     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow           36   46  -14       6.31    76.17     2.69    57.38     4.25   -17.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Aldershot        37   46  -15       1.22    55.99    -5.93    57.50     3.92   -16.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Chester          37   43   -4      -2.30    40.36     4.86    54.63     3.91    -5.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.47R    0.00  
Southport        38   43  -16       2.74    63.16     1.95    53.00     3.72   -17.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.41R    0.00  
Guiseley         37   41  -19       2.79    63.08     0.13    50.03     3.77   -23.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.82R    0.01  
Halifax          36   37  -21      -6.67    23.11   -11.25    49.04     4.12   -24.19     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.41R    0.08  
Boreham_Wood     37   36   -7      -6.42    24.21     3.34    46.81     3.84    -8.89     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.05R    0.15  
Torquay          36   35  -22      -8.88    15.89   -13.11    48.76     4.29   -22.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.51R    0.15  
Altrincham       36   35  -25      -0.37    49.22    -2.63    46.03     4.09   -29.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.83R    1.04  
Welling          38   28  -26     -10.19    11.60    -5.40    36.54     3.55   -29.60     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.82R   43.35  
Kidderminster    37   24  -24     -17.27     1.93    -9.55    35.27     3.94   -25.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.57R   55.23