Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 14 March 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 14 March 2016, Leicester 1 0 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        30   63  +22      17.18    98.40    15.09    74.61     3.77    22.94    57.00    82.47    94.54    98.86    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        30   58  +29       5.45    74.84    11.67    71.64     3.73    33.06    26.82    61.65    84.91    95.71    99.78     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          29   52  +16       0.08    49.92    -2.45    69.30     3.77    23.66     9.50    30.39    59.87    85.60    98.58     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         29   51  +21      -6.21    20.47    -6.99    67.93     3.93    28.09     6.14    22.16    48.08    78.27    96.78     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         29   49  +12       7.02    81.55     8.83    61.47     3.95    12.20     0.19     1.06     3.82    12.53    57.35     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   47  +10      -2.32    38.40    -4.03    62.54     3.88    14.80     0.26     1.72     6.30    18.87    69.65     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      30   44   +8      -2.63    37.17    -0.10    56.16     3.70     9.73     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.79    11.97     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        28   44   +6       0.07    50.39    -2.31    60.26     4.33     9.90     0.08     0.53     2.25     8.15    45.21     0.00     0.00  
Stoke            30   43   -4       4.36    71.29    -0.75    53.00     3.62    -5.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     2.05     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   40   +4     -11.10     7.65   -13.32    55.66     4.04     8.91     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.77    11.94     0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        29   39   -6       4.48    72.58     1.38    49.17     3.79    -9.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          28   38  +12      -6.23    21.35     3.38    53.41     4.29    14.59     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.38     6.23     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      30   38   -9       3.65    68.01     2.56    45.74     3.50   -14.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06R    0.00  
Watford          29   37   -1       2.36    62.41     6.42    48.51     3.88    -2.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.02R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   33   -7      -1.02    45.55     1.54    43.03     3.79   -10.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.47R    0.00  
Swansea          30   33  -10      -3.90    31.61    -3.73    42.59     3.63   -11.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.51R    0.00  
Sunderland       29   25  -19      -3.83    30.96    -1.05    34.36     3.83   -23.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.90R    0.48  
Norwich          30   25  -23      -4.13    30.17    -3.28    33.47     3.55   -27.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.54R    0.81  
Newcastle        29   24  -26      -2.82    36.11    -4.50    33.22     3.75   -31.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.55R    2.04  
Aston_Villa      30   16  -35      -8.40    11.02    -8.35    22.55     3.24   -42.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.95R   96.68  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 13 March 2016, Charlton 2 0 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         37   74  +30       7.69    80.19     6.94    89.87     3.92    35.08    66.62    90.39   100.00    93.64P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   36   67  +24       4.78    70.75     5.48    83.67     4.10    28.26    10.12    36.26    99.65    57.17P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            35   65  +28       2.22    59.81     7.00    85.61     4.25    36.03    21.66    62.84    99.86    76.60P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        36   65  +15      10.74    88.89     7.31    79.62     4.17    16.59     1.47     8.54    94.92    26.52P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   61  +15      -0.01    49.63    -0.63    76.07     3.98    19.07     0.11     1.69    81.27    23.19P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   59  +17       4.75    70.39    11.12    73.08     3.97    19.54     0.01     0.22    57.72    11.47P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         37   58   +8       4.61    69.52     3.48    70.22     3.98     7.92     0.00     0.01    24.99     4.42P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      36   55   +6       6.25    76.21     6.08    68.83     4.19     6.43     0.00     0.02    15.32     2.34P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         36   55   +1       3.72    66.25    -2.24    70.30     4.16     3.51     0.00     0.03    24.01     4.27P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   52   +1       2.92    63.20     2.04    63.81     3.86     0.64     0.00     0.00     1.11     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             37   50   +4      -5.07    29.51    -2.75    62.93     3.91     5.08     0.00     0.00     0.92     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton   37   47   -5      -4.74    30.29    -6.92    58.83     3.86    -5.61     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Leeds_United    36   47   -5       2.63    62.39     1.15    59.47     4.04    -6.54     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   36   45   -1      -3.88    33.36    -1.20    57.93     4.17    -1.94     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.08R    0.00  
Reading         35   44   +0      -2.30    40.02     1.90    57.33     4.31    -2.18     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.08R    0.00  
Blackburn       36   43   +2      -7.56    19.87    -0.60    57.35     4.20     3.08     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.15R    0.00  
Brentford       36   43  -10      -4.04    32.95    -6.39    56.81     4.21    -9.85     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.32R    0.00  
Huddersfield    37   42   -4      -3.81    34.30     3.45    52.73     3.91    -6.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.14R    0.00  
Bristol_City    37   40  -24      -0.20    50.04    -8.45    50.05     3.82   -27.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.76R    0.05  
Fulham          37   37   -7      -9.67    14.13     0.15    48.58     3.97    -8.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.50R    0.18  
MK_Dons         37   37  -18      -4.81    29.86    -5.65    47.74     3.91   -20.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.95R    0.27  
Rotherham       37   36  -19      -2.12    41.31     0.35    45.43     3.75   -23.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.98R    0.97  
Charlton        37   32  -32      -5.18    27.52   -11.86    40.10     3.62   -38.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.83R   20.56  
Bolton          37   26  -26     -13.78     5.04    -9.74    35.12     3.73   -31.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.18R   77.96  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 March 2016, Barnsley 0 2 Southend; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    36   71  +15      18.24    97.69     9.73    85.70     4.26    16.58    56.15    81.69    99.91    85.36P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            36   65  +25      -0.70    46.67     0.74    82.75     4.24    30.80    30.11    66.27    99.06    78.33P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       36   62  +20       5.48    72.44     9.14    76.96     4.35    21.83     3.73    14.61    86.17    31.33P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          35   62  +17       7.81    80.79     7.82    79.34     4.46    20.45     8.34    27.65    93.60    44.37P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         36   59  +14       1.74    57.43     2.07    75.30     4.26    17.84     1.34     7.04    76.12    25.91P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford         36   58   +6       6.64    76.91     2.68    71.71     4.22     6.15     0.16     1.26    39.65     9.15P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         36   55  +18      -0.83    46.44     8.38    69.81     4.26    19.74     0.06     0.62    30.35     7.88P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley         36   55   +9       0.23    50.91     1.07    70.29     4.26    11.55     0.09     0.62    30.79     7.82P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        37   55   +3       4.82    70.18     3.53    67.38     4.02     3.09     0.00     0.05     9.78     1.87P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         36   54   +4       6.03    74.83     5.67    66.91     4.20     2.92     0.00     0.07     8.86     1.72P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        36   52   +5      -3.28    36.09    -3.89    67.03     4.32     6.99     0.00     0.07    11.52     3.08P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale         36   51   +2       0.44    52.32     0.32    65.21     4.29     2.62     0.00     0.01     4.57     0.96P    0.01R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       36   51   +0       3.45    65.03     2.57    64.22     4.24    -0.76     0.00     0.00     2.78     0.49P    0.01R    0.00  
Swindon          35   49   +2      -5.00    29.16    -7.06    65.46     4.53     4.05     0.00     0.03     6.22     1.60P    0.02R    0.00  
Bury             36   48  -13       6.92    78.11     0.06    59.33     4.18   -16.73     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    1.15R    0.00  
Peterborough     36   45   +1      -6.84    23.17    -2.48    60.72     4.36     4.06     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.11P    0.51R    0.00  
Shrewsbury       36   44  -10      -1.66    43.50    -4.66    55.27     4.13   -13.72     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     7.53R    0.00  
Chesterfield     36   41  -11      -6.76    23.00    -8.39    54.48     4.29   -11.46     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    12.66R    0.01  
Fleetwood_Town   35   40   -2      -5.02    28.85     1.97    54.27     4.42    -3.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   11.36R    0.01  
Doncaster        36   37  -12      -8.48    16.93    -6.61    50.15     4.24   -12.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.44R    0.39  
Blackpool        36   35  -14      -8.16    18.19    -5.52    47.74     4.18   -15.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.50R    1.30  
Oldham           34   34  -14      -5.44    26.38    -3.80    48.20     4.57   -17.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.45R    1.12  
Crewe            36   30  -26      -4.49    30.73    -2.38    40.73     4.07   -30.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.63R   24.62  
Colchester       36   28  -39      -5.75    25.56   -10.99    37.22     4.00   -47.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.72R   72.55  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 March 2016, Accrington_Stanley 2 1 Plymouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Northampton          36   79  +30      18.39    97.86    13.03    95.72     4.33    34.47    97.05    99.96   100.00    99.96P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           36   65  +26       5.78    73.39    11.47    82.55     4.29    31.65     1.58    73.08    99.30    80.35P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             36   65  +19       6.76    77.00     6.11    81.71     4.23    23.36     1.04    61.93    98.81    72.03P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       36   62  +16       7.98    80.35     9.00    77.96     4.31    19.25     0.21    24.88    92.47    40.90P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   60  +15       9.70    85.27    11.79    76.88     4.59    17.67     0.08    19.54    86.02    32.16P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           36   59  +23       1.19    54.99    10.50    75.35     4.27    26.91     0.04    13.07    81.68    31.99P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        36   56   +4      -3.25    36.47   -10.78    73.54     4.30     9.78     0.00     4.74    63.52    22.88P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              35   55   +6       2.16    59.79    -1.32    71.39     4.49     7.98     0.00     2.28    41.77    12.09P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        36   53   +8       2.69    61.64     6.66    67.41     4.27     9.08     0.00     0.27    15.23     3.47P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             35   52   +2       4.72    69.89     3.65    66.56     4.54     1.12     0.00     0.20    10.70     2.06P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            36   51   +4       5.30    72.48     8.91    63.42     4.24     2.13     0.00     0.01     2.93     0.51P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        36   51   +2       3.35    64.69     4.74    63.79     4.30     0.62     0.00     0.03     3.10     0.64P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                36   50   +1      -1.27    45.05    -1.94    64.11     4.28     1.58     0.00     0.01     3.28     0.70P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               36   49   -4       1.10    55.28    -1.55    61.92     4.27    -5.21     0.00     0.00     0.89     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet               36   47   -4       2.52    61.42     3.58    58.90     4.26    -6.73     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         36   45  -15      -1.71    43.24   -11.06    58.60     4.33   -15.23     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            36   40   -7      -6.24    25.06    -1.58    53.89     4.35    -6.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16R    0.00  
Newport_County       35   40  -10      -2.69    38.94    -2.38    53.16     4.42   -12.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Notts_County         35   40  -12      -7.81    20.21   -11.55    55.58     4.59   -11.33     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.06R    0.00  
Yeovil               36   38  -11      -9.05    16.34    -8.22    50.73     4.24   -12.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.51R    0.01  
Stevenage            36   34  -18     -11.63     9.88   -12.25    45.98     4.23   -20.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.30R    0.64  
Hartlepool           33   34  -19      -0.46    48.85    -2.62    47.00     4.66   -26.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.09R    0.85  
York                 36   27  -29     -11.59     8.90   -12.71    37.00     4.03   -34.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.60R   34.95  
Dag_&_Red            36   25  -27     -14.22     4.79   -11.48    34.61     3.99   -33.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.13R   63.54  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 March 2016, Aldershot 0 0 Torquay; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       38   83  +47       5.40    72.71     8.33    98.58     3.55    53.87    80.16   100.00    88.23P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     38   81  +28      14.03    93.86     5.55    94.43     3.74    31.84    18.00   100.00    40.07P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          35   68  +39      -1.21    43.63     6.85    87.35     4.36    45.34     1.84    99.27    39.25P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         38   62  +13      -3.38    35.72    -6.57    75.39     3.76    16.53     0.00    41.90     9.68P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   35   61  +15       7.54    80.61     6.91    76.51     4.38    15.88     0.00    51.15     7.81P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          37   59  +17      -0.10    49.33     4.62    71.28     3.93    16.97     0.00    12.96     2.13P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   35   59  +14       5.48    72.91     5.86    75.81     4.52    16.60     0.00    46.63     6.55P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        36   59   +6       5.02    70.64    -0.69    75.34     4.25    10.04     0.00    38.09     5.15P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        37   58   -7       8.28    82.03    -4.97    70.06     4.04    -7.40     0.00     5.73     0.62P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     37   56  +10       2.93    62.44     6.76    68.25     3.98     9.67     0.00     3.33     0.44P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley          37   54   +2       5.68    72.73     6.84    65.83     4.12     1.01     0.00     0.85     0.08P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     37   50   +6      -4.69    30.52     0.16    62.78     3.99     6.75     0.00     0.08     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           38   49   +3      -7.25    21.67    -2.99    60.58     3.77     3.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barrow           36   46  -14       6.08    75.16     2.23    57.48     4.26   -17.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
Aldershot        37   46  -15       1.27    56.46    -5.84    57.45     3.93   -16.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09R    0.00  
Chester          37   43   -4      -2.20    41.15     5.00    54.60     3.90    -5.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.48R    0.00  
Southport        38   43  -16       2.58    62.37     1.61    53.03     3.70   -17.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.43R    0.00  
Guiseley         36   40  -19       2.75    63.32    -0.78    49.74     3.93   -24.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.67R    0.01  
Boreham_Wood     37   36   -7      -6.49    23.56     3.29    46.84     3.85    -8.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.08R    0.14  
Halifax          35   36  -21      -6.64    23.07   -11.62    49.23     4.39   -24.53     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.24R    0.16  
Altrincham       36   35  -25      -0.52    48.75    -2.79    46.08     4.10   -29.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.07R    0.96  
Torquay          35   34  -22      -8.48    16.51   -12.99    49.51     4.55   -21.54     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.26R    0.10  
Welling          38   28  -26     -10.17    11.72    -5.31    36.54     3.54   -29.60     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.94R   43.51  
Kidderminster    37   24  -24     -17.24     2.05    -9.46    35.24     3.96   -25.63     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.66R   55.12