Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 4 March 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 2 March 2016, Arsenal 1 2 Swansea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        28   57  +20      15.03    97.29    14.82    72.06     4.27    22.01    34.72    61.45    80.86    92.91    99.50     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        28   54  +27       5.17    74.66    11.16    71.17     4.20    32.22    32.70    58.70    78.73    91.87    99.31     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   51  +16       0.36    51.52    -2.58    69.57     4.03    23.57    17.13    38.90    62.65    84.91    98.30     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         27   47  +17      -5.39    22.75    -7.65    68.57     4.26    27.39    13.34    32.84    56.16    79.00    96.82     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          28   47  +11      -1.02    44.44    -3.21    64.45     4.14    16.57     1.92     6.91    16.75    35.26    82.93     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         28   46  +11       5.60    76.65     8.04    59.34     4.21    10.49     0.12     0.61     2.17     6.27    37.08     0.00     0.00  
Stoke            28   42   -3       5.35    76.19    -0.77    54.09     4.08    -5.34     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.30     5.44     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        27   41   +5      -1.27    43.29    -2.84    58.82     4.54     9.16     0.06     0.42     1.65     5.20    33.86     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      28   40   +7      -3.13    34.32     0.01    55.59     4.19     9.76     0.00     0.03     0.20     1.00    12.35     0.00R    0.00  
Chelsea          28   39   +4     -10.42     8.77   -12.99    56.77     4.24     9.98     0.01     0.06     0.41     1.80    19.47     0.00     0.00  
Everton          27   38  +13      -4.91    26.02     4.24    55.19     4.49    16.27     0.01     0.06     0.35     1.45    14.01     0.00R    0.00  
Watford          28   37   +0       3.13    66.35     6.62    49.96     4.18    -1.12     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.86     0.01R    0.00  
West_Brom        28   36   -7       2.91    65.63     0.60    47.16     4.01   -10.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.21R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   28   33   -6      -0.01    50.96     1.99    44.18     4.04    -9.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.50R    0.00  
Bournemouth      28   32  -12       1.65    59.69     1.31    42.10     3.99   -18.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.98R    0.01  
Swansea          28   30  -10      -4.00    30.19    -3.46    42.74     4.15   -11.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.89R    0.00  
Sunderland       28   24  -19      -3.72    31.00    -1.34    33.89     4.00   -24.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.40R    2.23  
Norwich          28   24  -22      -3.49    32.92    -3.52    34.05     3.97   -28.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.11R    2.35  
Newcastle        27   24  -23      -1.30    44.08    -3.55    35.60     4.23   -28.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.13R    2.00  
Aston_Villa      28   16  -29      -8.23    11.36    -6.89    23.76     3.56   -38.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.77R   93.41  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 4 March 2016, Middlesbrough 2 1 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Middlesbrough   34   67  +27       7.00    79.82     7.64    88.01     4.53    33.45    40.13    68.85    99.90    79.43P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         34   65  +26       5.06    72.05     6.28    86.04     4.63    32.53    24.06    52.32    99.64    68.03P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            34   64  +28       2.84    62.53     7.35    86.87     4.42    37.31    32.10    63.82    99.86    77.30P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        34   63  +15      11.63    91.40     7.61    80.45     4.62    16.77     2.97    10.73    93.05    26.96P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           34   57  +15       0.65    52.47     0.19    77.50     4.65    21.02     0.66     3.59    83.24    25.33P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       34   55  +15       5.54    74.10    10.24    73.51     4.63    18.14     0.06     0.49    55.03    10.89P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      34   54   +8       7.34    80.45     7.23    70.13     4.61     7.85     0.01     0.07    21.79     3.46P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         34   52   +7       3.40    65.48     3.49    68.99     4.67     7.85     0.00     0.03    17.76     3.21P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         33   51   +1       3.88    67.44    -2.17    70.69     4.83     3.93     0.00     0.10    25.82     4.66P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         34   48   +1       3.02    64.11     2.26    63.61     4.55     0.32     0.00     0.00     1.73     0.32P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             34   44   +1      -5.65    26.28    -3.86    61.36     4.66     2.59     0.00     0.00     0.76     0.14P    0.00R    0.00  
Reading         33   43   +2      -1.25    44.66     2.89    59.47     4.78     0.42     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.07P    0.01R    0.00  
Brentford       34   43   -6      -2.77    38.08    -4.65    60.35     4.68    -4.64     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.07P    0.02R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   35   43   -6      -5.43    27.22    -6.99    58.50     4.39    -5.25     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    0.03R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   33   42   +2      -4.03    31.80     0.09    59.34     4.85     1.48     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.07P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackburn       33   40   +2      -6.61    21.78    -0.79    58.55     4.80     3.21     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.05P    0.04R    0.00  
Huddersfield    34   39   -2      -3.70    33.50     3.84    52.99     4.52    -5.60     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.96R    0.00  
Leeds_United    33   38   -9      -1.21    44.87    -1.36    53.80     4.65   -11.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.93R    0.01  
Bristol_City    34   37  -22      -0.08    50.49    -7.97    50.01     4.49   -27.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.63R    0.10  
Fulham          34   36   -5      -7.06    20.99     1.21    51.59     4.70    -6.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.48R    0.03  
MK_Dons         34   32  -20      -5.65    25.63    -7.29    45.53     4.51   -24.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.96R    1.59  
Rotherham       34   29  -21      -5.24    26.62    -1.77    40.57     4.33   -28.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.43R   10.27  
Bolton          34   25  -24     -11.80     6.96    -9.51    37.74     4.39   -29.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.12R   29.50  
Charlton        34   25  -35      -7.79    16.48   -13.97    35.72     4.23   -43.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.38R   58.49  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 March 2016, Barnsley 2 0 Coventry; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    33   67  +16      18.13    98.09    10.39    86.52     4.93    18.65    49.25    80.39    99.76    84.37P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            34   63  +25       0.26    50.59     1.15    85.12     4.67    33.34    40.52    77.76    99.62    86.15P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          33   59  +16       8.04    82.49     7.53    79.34     4.92    19.81     6.47    23.08    93.00    40.76P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       34   58  +17       5.58    73.39     8.28    76.55     4.79    20.15     2.45    10.91    83.55    27.76P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         34   55  +11       1.86    58.13     1.13    74.11     4.79    14.89     0.73     4.14    67.66    21.01P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         33   52  +19       0.02    50.17     8.96    71.83     4.99    22.09     0.40     2.29    51.99    15.44P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley         34   52   +9      -0.01    49.94     1.01    70.24     4.67    11.84     0.10     0.75    35.69     9.12P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         34   51   +3       5.95    74.60     5.07    66.26     4.65     1.34     0.01     0.07    10.25     1.81P    0.02R    0.00  
Bradford         33   51   +3       4.79    71.25     1.12    69.01     4.91     3.43     0.08     0.52    24.54     5.59P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale        35   49   +0       3.06    63.81     2.71    64.18     4.48     0.21     0.00     0.01     4.07     0.81P    0.10R    0.00  
Swindon          34   48   +2      -4.29    31.83    -6.58    65.89     4.73     4.12     0.00     0.03     9.89     2.53P    0.06R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        34   48   +2      -3.04    36.44    -4.67    65.99     4.74     4.30     0.00     0.04    10.68     2.83P    0.08R    0.00  
Bury             34   47  -10       7.33    80.01     1.12    60.88     4.67   -14.10     0.00     0.00     1.15     0.16P    1.48R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       33   46   -2       3.38    65.83     1.91    63.12     4.96    -3.08     0.00     0.01     3.78     0.69P    0.52R    0.00  
Rochdale         34   45   -2      -1.33    44.46    -1.42    61.54     4.77    -2.07     0.00     0.00     1.71     0.38P    1.03R    0.00  
Peterborough     34   44   +2      -5.36    27.73    -2.01    62.24     4.78     4.66     0.00     0.00     2.49     0.57P    0.66R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town   33   39   -1      -3.91    32.79     2.06    55.63     4.84    -2.59     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   11.58R    0.03  
Chesterfield     34   38   -9      -7.79    19.24    -7.58    54.21     4.75    -9.47     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   19.66R    0.04  
Doncaster        33   37   -8      -6.05    24.31    -4.92    54.43     4.96    -8.48     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   19.65R    0.11  
Shrewsbury       33   37  -12      -3.86    33.33    -5.59    51.77     4.84   -16.57     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    40.00R    0.26  
Blackpool        34   35  -10      -7.22    20.80    -4.07    50.21     4.67   -11.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.87R    0.90  
Oldham           33   34  -11      -5.25    26.94    -2.53    49.29     4.77   -14.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.80R    1.13  
Crewe            34   29  -23      -4.25    31.00    -1.81    41.56     4.46   -29.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.89R   24.57  
Colchester       34   27  -37      -5.21    27.25   -11.27    37.67     4.38   -47.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.59R   72.97  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 March 2016, Barnet 1 0 Plymouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Northampton          34   75  +27      18.55    98.27    12.11    95.02     4.82    32.29    89.26    99.76   100.00    99.82P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           34   64  +27       7.20    79.14    12.01    84.41     4.73    32.88     5.88    81.01    99.45    86.37P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             34   64  +20       8.17    82.56     6.75    83.75     4.68    24.80     4.31    73.70    99.10    80.83P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   32   56  +16       9.18    85.35    11.85    76.92     5.25    18.58     0.40    19.62    81.45    32.50P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           33   53  +22      -0.04    49.94    10.49    74.23     4.99    27.02     0.08     9.52    69.28    26.92P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       33   53  +11       5.41    73.07     7.21    72.90     5.00    14.02     0.03     4.46    56.43    16.49P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        34   53   +4      -3.25    36.01   -10.47    73.45     4.79    10.08     0.02     5.20    59.23    22.18P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        33   52  +11       4.80    70.72     8.20    70.88     4.99    12.59     0.01     2.42    40.89    10.54P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              33   52   +6       2.02    59.42    -1.13    71.60     4.99     8.63     0.01     2.82    43.53    13.33P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            34   51   +6       7.06    78.93     9.66    66.12     4.65     4.12     0.00     0.11    10.33     1.92P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             32   50   +5       5.68    74.03     4.82    69.15     5.26     4.77     0.00     1.22    26.51     6.08P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        34   50   +3       4.41    69.20     4.78    65.34     4.76     1.26     0.00     0.11     7.56     1.53P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                34   47   +1      -1.86    41.88    -2.32    63.76     4.75     1.42     0.00     0.03     4.11     1.04P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               34   45   -5       0.21    51.37    -1.92    60.60     4.79    -6.34     0.00     0.01     0.91     0.18P    0.00R    0.00  
Barnet               33   43   -5       3.10    64.47     3.22    59.32     4.97    -7.31     0.00     0.00     0.63     0.11P    0.01R    0.00  
Crawley_Town         34   41  -16      -2.53    39.66   -11.25    57.13     4.78   -16.57     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.06R    0.00  
Notts_County         33   40   -9      -6.38    24.11   -10.49    58.78     5.08    -7.62     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.13P    0.02R    0.00  
Morecambe            34   36   -8      -7.00    21.80    -1.73    52.29     4.81    -8.56     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.63R    0.05  
Newport_County       32   34  -11      -4.68    29.32    -3.33    50.49     5.01   -14.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.71R    0.13  
Stevenage            34   34  -15     -10.47    11.85   -11.49    48.47     4.70   -18.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.11R    0.27  
Yeovil               34   32  -13     -11.43     9.57    -8.79    47.08     4.70   -14.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.21R    0.63  
Hartlepool           31   28  -23      -2.60    38.30    -4.96    42.74     5.04   -32.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.23R    9.03  
York                 34   26  -28     -10.20    11.14   -12.00    38.68     4.52   -33.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.76R   26.36  
Dag_&_Red            33   21  -26     -14.75     3.30   -11.18    34.77     4.72   -32.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.27R   63.51  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 4 March 2016, Forest_Green 0 1 Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       36   79  +43       6.09    75.88     7.39    98.75     4.04    51.97    84.85   100.00    90.88P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     37   78  +27      12.92    92.42     5.34    92.96     4.04    31.05    13.10   100.00    35.58P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          34   65  +38      -2.18    39.03     6.80    86.65     4.56    45.78     2.04    99.01    39.97P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   33   57  +13       6.81    79.00     5.66    75.36     4.82    14.07     0.00    47.26     7.28P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         35   57  +11      -3.09    36.18    -6.84    75.50     4.50    15.93     0.00    50.20    11.76P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          36   56  +16      -1.17    44.93     4.43    70.25     4.16    16.80     0.00    12.62     2.17P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        34   55   -5       8.54    83.66    -4.35    70.91     4.70    -5.80     0.00    14.04     1.55P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        33   53   +6       3.45    65.27    -0.22    74.13     4.93    11.12     0.00    37.35     5.19P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   32   52  +12       3.49    65.98     5.22    73.22     5.21    15.03     0.00    32.90     4.76P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     35   52   +8       2.39    60.83     5.88    66.84     4.46     7.46     0.00     3.45     0.42P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           35   49   +9      -5.53    26.95    -0.84    64.40     4.47     9.25     0.00     1.17     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     35   48   +6      -3.59    34.27     0.68    64.13     4.47     7.61     0.00     0.91     0.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Bromley          34   47   -1       4.11    67.98     6.19    63.57     4.87    -1.12     0.00     0.96     0.09P    0.00R    0.00  
Aldershot        34   45   -7       1.43    56.87    -2.52    61.14     4.66    -7.50     0.00     0.13     0.01P    0.04R    0.00  
Southport        35   42  -14       4.81    72.22     2.16    55.49     4.33   -16.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.10R    0.00  
Chester          34   39   -9      -0.44    48.71     2.38    53.86     4.63   -11.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.64R    0.01  
Barrow           33   39  -17       4.68    71.55     1.81    54.19     4.97   -21.28     0.00     0.00     0.00P    3.87R    0.02  
Guiseley         34   39  -17       3.54    67.01    -0.28    50.54     4.42   -24.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.84R    0.06  
Boreham_Wood     34   35   -4      -5.29    27.86     4.01    50.15     4.59    -5.59     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.38R    0.10  
Altrincham       33   34  -23       1.65    59.23    -2.57    48.48     4.81   -28.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.00R    0.74  
Halifax          33   33  -21      -6.94    21.11   -11.51    48.55     4.87   -25.34     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.65R    0.76  
Torquay          32   29  -23      -8.95    13.81   -13.16    48.43     5.22   -22.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.88R    1.19  
Welling          35   26  -25      -9.23    12.71    -6.37    36.90     4.11   -31.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.73R   48.70  
Kidderminster    36   24  -23     -16.28     2.49    -9.30    36.44     4.22   -24.91     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.86R   48.43