Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 3 March 2016 at 22:00:02 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 2 March 2016, Arsenal 1 2 Swansea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        28   57  +20      14.99    97.36    14.72    72.06     4.29    22.01    34.73    61.52    81.09    92.86    99.45     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        28   54  +27       5.22    74.85    11.19    71.13     4.23    32.16    32.11    58.07    78.39    91.69    99.30     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   51  +16       0.30    51.04    -2.64    69.61     4.05    23.61    17.71    39.57    62.95    85.03    98.38     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         27   47  +17      -5.22    23.63    -7.36    68.53     4.31    27.29    13.30    32.69    56.12    78.81    96.70     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          28   47  +11      -0.83    45.48    -2.96    64.37     4.13    16.47     1.92     6.86    16.47    34.99    82.43     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         28   46  +11       5.52    76.42     7.93    59.35     4.21    10.48     0.13     0.67     2.18     6.38    37.00     0.00     0.00  
Stoke            28   42   -3       5.24    75.54    -0.94    54.10     4.05    -5.29     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.29     5.50     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        27   41   +5      -1.29    43.18    -2.91    58.85     4.54     9.18     0.07     0.43     1.73     5.43    34.33     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      28   40   +7      -3.12    34.27     0.00    55.56     4.18     9.73     0.00     0.04     0.21     0.99    12.08     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          28   39   +4     -10.40     8.62   -12.96    56.79     4.25    10.01     0.01     0.07     0.45     1.88    19.39     0.00     0.00  
Everton          27   38  +13      -4.89    26.04     4.27    55.23     4.50    16.29     0.01     0.08     0.37     1.60    14.44     0.00     0.00  
Watford          28   37   +0       3.21    67.00     6.75    49.92     4.16    -1.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.89     0.02R    0.00  
West_Brom        28   36   -7       3.04    66.37     0.76    47.15     3.99   -10.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.21R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   28   33   -6      -0.18    49.78     1.76    44.23     4.02    -9.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.41R    0.00  
Bournemouth      28   32  -12       1.57    59.18     1.19    42.13     4.04   -18.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.11R    0.01  
Swansea          28   30  -10      -3.92    30.59    -3.36    42.77     4.15   -11.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.80R    0.01  
Sunderland       28   24  -19      -3.78    30.73    -1.42    33.91     4.03   -24.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.32R    2.29  
Norwich          28   24  -22      -3.49    32.75    -3.48    34.07     4.00   -28.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.76R    2.47  
Newcastle        27   24  -23      -1.34    43.60    -3.60    35.59     4.25   -28.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.60R    1.96  
Aston_Villa      28   16  -29      -8.27    11.05    -6.94    23.77     3.60   -38.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.78R   93.26  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 3 March 2016, Birmingham 1 0 Hull; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Burnley         34   65  +26       4.83    71.13     5.95    86.07     4.63    32.60    26.55    55.42    99.67    70.30P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            34   64  +28       2.67    61.81     7.13    86.95     4.42    37.41    35.66    66.88    99.89    79.05P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   33   64  +26       6.08    76.64     7.67    86.85     4.71    33.09    33.51    61.10    99.74    74.24P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        34   63  +15      11.58    91.32     7.52    80.51     4.59    16.82     3.36    11.78    93.72    28.24P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           34   57  +15       0.52    52.18     0.06    77.50     4.63    21.03     0.82     4.04    83.29    25.47P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       34   55  +15       5.73    74.55    10.51    73.45     4.61    18.05     0.08     0.52    54.54    10.57P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      34   54   +8       7.11    79.83     6.91    70.20     4.61     7.96     0.01     0.10    22.10     3.72P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         34   52   +7       3.46    65.91     3.57    68.94     4.69     7.76     0.01     0.05    17.37     3.09P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         33   51   +1       3.93    67.85    -2.10    70.68     4.79     3.92     0.01     0.10    25.78     4.66P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         34   48   +1       2.83    63.25     1.98    63.71     4.56     0.46     0.00     0.00     1.86     0.32P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             34   44   +1      -5.56    26.57    -3.67    61.36     4.62     2.57     0.00     0.00     0.68     0.10P    0.00R    0.00  
Reading         33   43   +2      -1.09    45.27     3.15    59.44     4.77     0.41     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.05P    0.02R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   34   43   -5      -4.54    30.41    -6.75    59.29     4.53    -5.06     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P    0.02R    0.00  
Brentford       34   43   -6      -2.79    37.90    -4.69    60.36     4.64    -4.59     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.05P    0.02R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   33   42   +2      -4.01    31.84     0.14    59.30     4.81     1.46     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.07P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackburn       33   40   +2      -6.43    22.26    -0.58    58.50     4.80     3.13     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P    0.05R    0.00  
Huddersfield    34   39   -2      -3.73    33.72     3.74    52.97     4.54    -5.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.03R    0.00  
Leeds_United    33   38   -9      -1.19    45.05    -1.31    53.77     4.66   -11.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.94R    0.01  
Bristol_City    34   37  -22      -0.18    49.88    -8.11    50.09     4.50   -27.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.42R    0.08  
Fulham          34   36   -5      -7.23    20.66     0.97    51.64     4.68    -6.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.30R    0.03  
MK_Dons         34   32  -20      -5.48    26.16    -7.03    45.49     4.52   -24.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.24R    1.55  
Rotherham       34   29  -21      -5.27    26.21    -1.88    40.60     4.33   -28.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.28R    9.86  
Bolton          34   25  -24     -11.64     7.48    -9.23    37.61     4.43   -29.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.38R   30.32  
Charlton        34   25  -35      -7.80    16.53   -13.95    35.71     4.22   -43.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.28R   58.16  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 March 2016, Barnsley 2 0 Coventry; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    33   67  +16      18.04    97.99    10.28    86.55     4.95    18.66    49.58    80.19    99.74    84.30P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            34   63  +25       0.30    50.78     1.25    85.10     4.66    33.28    40.37    77.75    99.62    86.01P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          33   59  +16       7.94    82.17     7.37    79.42     4.93    19.93     6.56    23.71    92.96    41.36P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       34   58  +17       5.66    73.65     8.35    76.50     4.81    20.10     2.35    10.82    83.31    27.74P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         34   55  +11       1.83    58.01     1.07    74.09     4.78    14.84     0.66     3.92    67.25    20.82P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         33   52  +19       0.03    49.95     8.94    71.84     4.93    22.11     0.30     2.14    52.36    15.18P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley         34   52   +9       0.03    50.22     1.12    70.20     4.66    11.80     0.10     0.75    35.33     9.02P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         34   51   +3       6.11    75.46     5.23    66.26     4.69     1.30     0.00     0.09    10.46     2.00P    0.02R    0.00  
Bradford         33   51   +3       4.75    71.16     1.14    69.00     4.89     3.41     0.07     0.49    24.34     5.38P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale        35   49   +0       3.07    63.63     2.69    64.19     4.47     0.24     0.00     0.00     4.00     0.80P    0.09R    0.00  
Swindon          34   48   +2      -4.53    30.78    -6.94    65.93     4.80     4.20     0.00     0.06    10.46     2.71P    0.09R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        34   48   +2      -3.07    36.48    -4.71    66.05     4.77     4.38     0.00     0.05    11.13     2.88P    0.05R    0.00  
Bury             34   47  -10       7.28    79.80     1.00    60.94     4.69   -14.01     0.00     0.00     1.11     0.20P    1.49R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       33   46   -2       3.41    65.71     1.92    63.14     4.94    -3.08     0.00     0.01     3.78     0.65P    0.54R    0.00  
Rochdale         34   45   -2      -1.27    44.74    -1.35    61.52     4.73    -2.08     0.00     0.00     1.61     0.31P    0.97R    0.00  
Peterborough     34   44   +2      -5.46    27.27    -2.10    62.26     4.75     4.67     0.00     0.01     2.40     0.61P    0.61R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town   33   39   -1      -3.85    33.13     2.10    55.57     4.83    -2.63     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   11.96R    0.03  
Chesterfield     34   38   -9      -7.74    19.09    -7.46    54.16     4.73    -9.53     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   19.72R    0.05  
Doncaster        33   37   -8      -5.75    25.27    -4.54    54.34     4.93    -8.61     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   19.76R    0.13  
Shrewsbury       33   37  -12      -3.77    33.58    -5.47    51.77     4.82   -16.59     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    39.88R    0.28  
Blackpool        34   35  -10      -7.22    20.66    -4.09    50.20     4.65   -11.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.66R    0.82  
Oldham           33   34  -11      -5.39    26.59    -2.69    49.34     4.77   -14.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.81R    1.08  
Crewe            34   29  -23      -4.35    30.75    -1.91    41.61     4.45   -29.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.78R   24.04  
Colchester       34   27  -37      -5.19    27.20   -11.19    37.64     4.36   -47.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.58R   73.58  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 March 2016, Barnet 1 0 Plymouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Northampton          34   75  +27      18.30    98.27    11.80    95.09     4.78    32.40    89.37    99.79   100.00    99.84P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           34   64  +27       7.42    79.59    12.33    84.35     4.72    32.78     5.70    80.72    99.49    86.00P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             34   64  +20       8.07    82.25     6.57    83.84     4.66    24.93     4.44    74.63    99.15    81.61P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   32   56  +16       9.37    85.80    12.17    76.87     5.26    18.49     0.36    19.30    81.40    32.04P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           33   53  +22      -0.20    48.91    10.18    74.28     4.96    27.10     0.07     9.32    69.42    26.99P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       33   53  +11       5.11    71.80     6.79    73.03     5.02    14.20     0.03     4.69    57.60    17.05P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        34   53   +4      -3.06    36.92   -10.25    73.43     4.76    10.04     0.01     4.99    59.11    21.89P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        33   52  +11       4.89    71.04     8.32    70.77     5.01    12.43     0.00     2.37    39.95    10.26P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              33   52   +6       2.02    59.18    -1.14    71.62     4.97     8.67     0.01     2.71    43.48    13.39P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            34   51   +6       7.15    79.12     9.83    66.09     4.68     4.09     0.00     0.14    10.41     1.93P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             32   50   +5       5.68    74.32     4.78    69.13     5.25     4.75     0.00     1.19    26.30     6.02P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        34   50   +3       4.51    69.66     5.00    65.27     4.75     1.15     0.00     0.12     7.34     1.47P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                34   47   +1      -1.58    43.34    -1.93    63.70     4.74     1.33     0.00     0.04     4.07     1.03P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               34   45   -5       0.11    51.15    -2.04    60.57     4.79    -6.40     0.00     0.01     0.87     0.17P    0.00     0.00  
Barnet               33   43   -5       2.98    64.04     3.12    59.41     5.00    -7.22     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Crawley_Town         34   41  -16      -2.70    39.10   -11.52    57.21     4.83   -16.45     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P    0.03R    0.00  
Notts_County         33   40   -9      -6.60    23.13   -10.84    58.87     5.08    -7.50     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.14P    0.01R    0.00  
Morecambe            34   36   -8      -7.13    21.49    -1.92    52.29     4.82    -8.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.70R    0.06  
Newport_County       32   34  -11      -4.47    30.34    -3.06    50.47     5.07   -15.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    1.79R    0.13  
Stevenage            34   34  -15     -10.55    11.51   -11.57    48.47     4.72   -18.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.00R    0.28  
Yeovil               34   32  -13     -11.15    10.36    -8.41    47.00     4.73   -14.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.56R    0.60  
Hartlepool           31   28  -23      -2.64    37.99    -5.01    42.68     5.04   -32.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.68R    8.82  
York                 34   26  -28     -10.25    11.06   -12.14    38.72     4.52   -33.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.26R   26.29  
Dag_&_Red            33   21  -26     -14.69     3.38   -11.07    34.78     4.74   -32.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.97R   63.84  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 1 March 2016, Braintree_Town 2 1 Kidderminster; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       36   79  +43       6.30    76.12     7.66    98.68     4.03    51.87    78.65   100.00    87.03P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   78  +28      13.73    94.15     5.36    94.38     4.28    32.12    20.18   100.00    41.38P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          33   62  +37      -3.34    33.75     6.40    84.96     4.81    44.68     1.17    97.33    37.54P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   33   57  +13       6.87    78.95     5.77    75.37     4.83    14.04     0.00    47.50     7.41P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         35   57  +11      -3.07    36.47    -6.80    75.50     4.53    15.91     0.00    50.48    11.73P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          36   56  +16      -1.25    44.46     4.30    70.28     4.16    16.83     0.00    12.72     2.19P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        34   55   -5       8.43    83.24    -4.52    70.89     4.71    -5.84     0.00    14.28     1.56P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        33   53   +6       3.33    64.80    -0.37    74.19     4.93    11.22     0.00    37.81     5.46P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   32   52  +12       3.42    65.73     5.12    73.25     5.19    15.07     0.00    33.32     4.86P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     35   52   +8       2.47    61.14     5.97    66.83     4.45     7.41     0.00     3.41     0.38P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           35   49   +9      -5.51    27.48    -0.81    64.39     4.50     9.21     0.00     1.20     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     35   48   +6      -3.90    33.14     0.18    64.26     4.48     7.80     0.00     0.94     0.14P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley          34   47   -1       4.26    68.47     6.44    63.50     4.90    -1.22     0.00     0.89     0.09P    0.01R    0.00  
Aldershot        34   45   -7       1.56    57.69    -2.29    61.09     4.68    -7.57     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.02R    0.00  
Southport        35   42  -14       4.82    72.17     2.20    55.46     4.36   -16.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.19R    0.01  
Chester          34   39   -9      -0.34    48.91     2.57    53.84     4.63   -11.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.53R    0.01  
Barrow           33   39  -17       4.75    71.94     1.99    54.15     4.98   -21.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.97R    0.02  
Guiseley         34   39  -17       3.63    67.40    -0.10    50.55     4.43   -24.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.01R    0.05  
Boreham_Wood     34   35   -4      -5.08    28.36     4.30    50.06     4.61    -5.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.90R    0.15  
Altrincham       33   34  -23       1.56    58.88    -2.60    48.50     4.78   -28.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.20R    0.86  
Halifax          33   33  -21      -7.17    20.09   -11.92    48.65     4.87   -25.19     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.97R    0.71  
Torquay          32   29  -23      -9.07    13.72   -13.28    48.49     5.25   -22.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.52R    1.21  
Welling          35   26  -25      -9.28    12.76    -6.36    36.93     4.15   -31.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.61R   48.23  
Kidderminster    36   24  -23     -16.25     2.52    -9.21    36.42     4.20   -24.93     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.07R   48.77