Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 25 February 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 14 February 2016, Arsenal 2 1 Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        26   53  +19      14.63    97.51    15.14    72.11     4.71    23.07    22.58    48.01    72.45    92.40    99.37     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   51  +27       5.53    77.34    11.95    71.79     4.65    33.59    25.19    50.13    73.71    93.39    99.43     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   51  +18       2.81    64.58    -1.00    73.36     4.47    27.10    34.96    60.36    81.01    96.04    99.81     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         26   47  +20      -4.66    25.24    -5.84    70.60     4.51    31.50    16.84    39.13    64.46    90.08    99.03     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   41   +9      -3.14    33.37    -3.54    61.60     4.60    15.12     0.32     1.66     5.30    15.36    68.81     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      26   40  +10      -1.24    43.39     1.72    59.11     4.64    13.91     0.08     0.47     1.81     6.55    47.64     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         26   40   +9       3.10    66.19     7.22    56.37     4.67     8.88     0.01     0.12     0.51     2.18    24.07     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   38   +2      -2.14    38.78    -4.63    56.58     4.77     5.19     0.01     0.08     0.47     2.20    24.80     0.00R    0.00  
Watford          26   36   +1       4.35    72.42     7.08    51.64     4.64    -0.26     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.18     4.69     0.02R    0.00  
Stoke            26   36   -5       3.29    68.03    -1.08    51.70     4.52    -6.12     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.16     4.08     0.04R    0.00  
Everton          26   35  +11      -5.50    23.09     3.82    54.05     4.73    14.98     0.00     0.02     0.14     0.84    14.78     0.01R    0.00  
Chelsea          26   33   +2     -12.67     4.34   -13.34    54.05     4.73     8.85     0.00     0.02     0.10     0.63    13.06     0.03R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   32   -5       1.36    58.25     2.24    45.92     4.51    -8.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.27     1.21R    0.00  
West_Brom        26   32   -8       1.78    60.80    -0.43    45.36     4.41   -12.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14     1.61R    0.00  
Bournemouth      26   28  -14       0.47    53.63    -0.16    39.85     4.47   -21.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.52R    0.45  
Swansea          26   27  -10      -4.80    25.70    -4.46    40.96     4.53   -13.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    12.28R    0.25  
Norwich          26   24  -20      -2.02    40.17    -3.49    35.55     4.38   -28.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.52R    3.69  
Newcastle        26   24  -22      -0.63    47.95    -3.50    36.54     4.44   -28.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.99R    3.22  
Sunderland       26   23  -18      -2.65    36.00    -1.40    35.02     4.42   -24.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.76R    4.11  
Aston_Villa      26   16  -26      -6.98    14.58    -6.31    25.48     4.00   -37.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.02R   88.27  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 24 February 2016, Derby 1 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Hull            32   63  +29       4.28    69.28     7.88    89.71     4.86    39.93    55.24    82.16    99.95    89.02P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         33   62  +25       4.06    68.09     6.19    84.76     4.88    32.03    13.85    41.67    99.28    61.35P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   31   61  +25       6.38    78.95     7.56    87.08     5.15    32.78    28.00    61.35    99.69    74.47P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        33   60  +11      11.65    91.68     5.84    78.75     4.81    12.68     1.23     6.34    88.29    21.37P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           33   57  +16       1.76    58.23     0.91    79.11     4.88    22.37     1.58     7.61    90.88    31.57P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       33   54  +15       5.60    74.71     9.92    73.28     4.76    17.34     0.09     0.64    57.34    11.00P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      32   51   +9       6.08    77.00     6.93    69.48     5.03     8.38     0.01     0.14    23.01     3.93P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         33   49   +6       2.31    60.90     3.26    67.51     4.89     7.05     0.01     0.03    13.91     2.39P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         33   48   +2       3.77    67.49     2.43    64.85     4.76     1.22     0.00     0.01     4.49     0.76P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         32   48   +0       2.70    62.78    -2.48    68.86     5.05     2.64     0.00     0.06    19.02     3.39P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       33   43   -5      -1.66    42.75    -4.09    62.13     4.93    -3.04     0.00     0.00     1.46     0.25P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   32   42   +3      -2.61    38.04     1.20    61.47     5.06     3.57     0.00     0.00     1.68     0.31P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             33   41   -1      -6.24    23.75    -4.30    59.75     4.88     0.61     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.09P    0.02R    0.00  
Reading         32   40   +1      -2.26    39.59     2.69    57.80     4.95    -0.54     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P    0.05R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   33   40   -6      -6.03    24.22    -7.46    57.46     4.75    -6.36     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.12R    0.00  
Huddersfield    33   39   -1      -2.92    36.97     3.98    54.51     4.80    -4.36     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.42R    0.00  
Leeds_United    32   38   -5      -1.30    44.09     0.53    55.16     4.86    -7.45     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.44R    0.01  
Fulham          33   36   -3      -6.72    22.06     1.60    52.91     4.90    -4.55     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P    1.35R    0.02  
Blackburn       31   34   +0      -8.78    13.59    -1.29    55.18     5.19     1.18     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    0.60R    0.01  
Bristol_City    33   34  -23      -1.76    42.61    -9.07    47.73     4.69   -29.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.60R    0.74  
MK_Dons         33   32  -19      -4.56    29.39    -6.85    46.41     4.68   -23.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.86R    1.36  
Rotherham       33   26  -22      -6.69    20.34    -2.51    38.53     4.55   -30.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.64R   24.97  
Bolton          33   25  -23     -10.82     8.79    -9.14    38.48     4.63   -29.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.94R   26.81  
Charlton        33   25  -34      -6.64    20.02   -13.74    36.96     4.42   -42.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.92R   46.07  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 23 February 2016, Bury 0 0 Barnsley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    31   63  +15      16.96    97.71     9.57    85.18     5.41    17.50    37.24    62.20    98.18    69.48P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            32   59  +22       0.57    51.88     0.39    84.48     5.15    31.34    35.31    63.34    98.30    76.03P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       32   58  +19       7.79    81.84     9.33    80.16     5.25    23.50    10.82    28.17    90.66    42.67P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          31   57  +16       8.81    85.09     7.58    80.60     5.35    20.64    12.09    29.82    90.98    44.86P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         32   53  +11       2.45    60.98     0.87    74.92     5.24    15.02     1.64     5.90    62.83    20.72P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         31   52  +22       2.11    59.57    10.90    75.35     5.45    26.23     2.56     8.62    67.83    24.10P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         32   50   +5       7.11    79.31     6.16    68.77     5.15     4.43     0.07     0.40    17.08     3.57P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        32   48   +5      -1.35    43.76    -3.28    69.38     5.20     8.26     0.10     0.55    22.26     6.32P    0.01R    0.00  
Bradford         31   48   +3       4.80    71.92     1.70    69.54     5.30     4.65     0.12     0.66    21.73     5.25P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnsley         32   46   +6      -1.90    41.37     0.14    67.08     5.16     8.92     0.04     0.17    12.19     3.03P    0.03R    0.00  
Port_Vale        33   45   -2       2.53    62.21     1.78    62.79     4.92    -1.93     0.00     0.01     1.75     0.30P    0.44R    0.00  
Peterborough     32   44   +5      -3.57    34.49    -0.47    65.97     5.26     9.16     0.01     0.11     8.46     2.02P    0.12R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       31   44   -2       4.06    69.10     1.87    63.67     5.35    -3.41     0.00     0.03     3.43     0.65P    0.50R    0.00  
Bury             32   44   -9       6.41    77.66     1.02    59.58     5.08   -14.77     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.09P    2.90R    0.00  
Swindon          32   42   -1      -6.33    23.32    -7.70    62.47     5.26     0.82     0.00     0.00     2.31     0.59P    0.85R    0.00  
Rochdale         32   42   -2      -1.73    42.55    -1.56    61.25     5.23    -2.13     0.00     0.00     1.34     0.28P    1.50R    0.00  
Doncaster        31   36   -6      -5.10    26.98    -4.06    56.03     5.40    -6.73     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P   11.30R    0.06  
Blackpool        32   34   -9      -6.11    23.94    -3.80    51.75     5.10   -10.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.99R    0.37  
Chesterfield     32   34  -10      -8.81    15.00    -8.21    52.69     5.18   -10.95     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P   26.59R    0.15  
Fleetwood_Town   31   33   -3      -6.62    21.12     0.79    51.33     5.21    -6.14     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    34.16R    0.38  
Shrewsbury       31   33  -14      -4.36    30.63    -6.16    50.28     5.32   -19.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.03R    0.86  
Oldham           31   32  -11      -4.75    28.30    -2.78    49.75     5.21   -14.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.34R    0.80  
Crewe            32   28  -22      -3.28    35.14    -1.83    42.42     4.90   -29.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.61R   14.39  
Colchester       32   23  -38      -6.73    20.18   -12.25    35.50     4.79   -49.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.58R   82.99  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 23 February 2016, AFC_Wimbledon 1 0 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Northampton          32   73  +27      19.39    98.90    12.22    96.99     5.28    34.24    92.85    99.80   100.00    99.84P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             32   61  +20       8.31    83.66     7.24    84.26     5.14    25.92     4.47    74.14    98.86    81.04P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           32   58  +22       6.19    76.13    10.33    81.38     5.17    28.19     1.52    56.20    96.45    67.30P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   30   55  +17      10.80    90.10    12.63    79.27     5.73    20.47     0.96    36.97    88.95    47.76P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        31   51  +12       5.87    75.52     8.19    72.09     5.40    12.76     0.06     5.79    49.65    15.40P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            33   51   +7       8.00    82.05    10.16    67.77     4.91     5.47     0.00     0.49    18.58     3.74P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       31   50   +9       5.90    75.72     6.28    72.75     5.46    12.23     0.05     5.78    53.99    16.81P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           31   49  +21      -1.02    45.12     9.85    73.57     5.43    26.92     0.05     9.86    63.31    25.40P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              31   49   +6       1.70    58.07    -1.12    71.66     5.41     9.07     0.02     4.21    44.86    14.97P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        32   49   +2      -3.14    36.21   -10.38    72.64     5.31     8.70     0.02     5.51    52.26    20.09P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        32   47   +3       4.02    67.88     4.65    64.54     5.18     0.39     0.00     0.19     7.58     1.62P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             30   46   +4       4.91    72.09     4.49    67.51     5.70     3.11     0.00     1.04    19.98     4.77P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                32   41   -1      -4.13    31.98    -2.88    60.84     5.24    -0.10     0.00     0.01     1.93     0.45P    0.01R    0.00  
Exeter               32   41   -7      -0.52    48.22    -3.01    58.69     5.20    -9.44     0.00     0.00     0.66     0.11P    0.05R    0.00  
Barnet               31   39   -6       1.91    59.75     2.45    57.11     5.40    -9.82     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.06P    0.16R    0.02  
Notts_County         31   39   -8      -5.04    28.71   -10.00    60.90     5.51    -6.04     0.00     0.01     2.21     0.57P    0.02R    0.00  
Crawley_Town         32   38  -16      -2.92    37.62   -11.41    56.62     5.23   -16.98     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P    0.21R    0.03  
Morecambe            32   36   -6      -5.31    27.43    -1.32    55.14     5.32    -6.44     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P    0.39R    0.04  
Stevenage            33   34  -13     -10.01    12.73   -10.83    50.21     4.98   -15.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.73R    0.28  
Newport_County       30   31  -10      -5.36    25.96    -2.87    50.21     5.48   -14.05     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    3.86R    0.60  
Hartlepool           29   27  -20      -2.28    39.58    -3.96    43.59     5.40   -30.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.58R   10.52  
Yeovil               32   26  -15     -13.82     4.82    -9.40    43.50     5.20   -17.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.12R    7.91  
York                 32   26  -23      -9.70    11.93   -10.68    41.22     4.99   -28.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.81R   18.53  
Dag_&_Red            31   20  -25     -13.49     4.34   -10.63    36.02     5.18   -32.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.06R   62.07  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 23 February 2016, Braintree_Town 2 0 Halifax; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       35   79  +44       7.37    80.74     7.95   100.63     4.29    53.81    81.52   100.00    88.76P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     35   77  +28      14.38    95.32     5.83    95.44     4.51    33.19    17.88   100.00    40.49P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          33   62  +37      -3.40    33.41     6.29    84.86     4.79    44.55     0.60    97.48    37.51P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          35   55  +16      -1.13    44.92     3.95    70.56     4.40    16.67     0.00    16.07     2.63P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        34   55   -5       8.52    83.36    -4.35    70.86     4.73    -5.86     0.00    15.07     1.66P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         34   54  +10      -4.16    31.51    -7.14    74.14     4.73    15.35     0.00    40.07     9.22P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   31   53  +12       6.40    78.49     5.93    74.79     5.24    14.01     0.00    44.53     7.04P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   31   52  +13       4.73    71.39     6.00    75.41     5.37    17.28     0.00    51.76     7.56P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     35   52   +8       2.49    61.05     6.06    66.74     4.46     7.26     0.00     3.43     0.40P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        32   50   +5       1.67    57.72    -1.33    72.14     5.14     9.56     0.00    25.07     3.67P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           35   49   +9      -5.54    26.91    -0.83    64.33     4.49     9.10     0.00     1.29     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     33   47   +7      -2.21    39.70     1.16    66.69     4.95     9.83     0.00     4.83     0.80P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot        33   42   -8       0.19    51.63    -2.79    59.55     4.89    -8.45     0.00     0.08     0.01P    0.12R    0.00  
Bromley          32   41   -4       2.28    60.96     5.77    60.32     5.35    -4.22     0.00     0.30     0.04P    0.18R    0.00  
Chester          33   39   -8       0.42    52.81     2.77    55.10     4.82   -10.97     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.40R    0.03  
Southport        33   39  -12       3.60    67.76     2.66    54.96     4.77   -14.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.95R    0.03  
Barrow           32   38  -17       4.86    72.57     1.49    54.10     5.18   -22.04     0.00     0.01     0.00     3.94R    0.13  
Guiseley         33   38  -17       3.83    68.28    -0.22    50.59     4.60   -24.68     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.24R    0.38  
Altrincham       33   34  -23       1.48    58.36    -2.67    48.54     4.79   -28.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.98R    2.15  
Halifax          33   33  -21      -6.96    21.18   -11.52    48.55     4.86   -25.38     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.28R    2.17  
Boreham_Wood     33   32   -7      -5.45    26.55     3.01    47.74     4.76    -9.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.15R    1.76  
Welling          33   26  -22      -7.96    15.76    -5.32    39.38     4.58   -28.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.39R   43.12  
Torquay          31   26  -24     -10.66     9.18   -14.15    46.29     5.36   -24.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.45R    6.51  
Kidderminster    34   24  -21     -14.52     3.72    -8.53    38.95     4.65   -23.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.91R   43.70