Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 24 February 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 14 February 2016, Arsenal 2 1 Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        26   53  +19      14.80    97.74    15.39    72.08     4.72    22.98    22.52    47.63    71.78    92.33    99.36     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   51  +27       5.46    76.83    11.81    71.87     4.68    33.67    25.74    50.82    74.24    93.30    99.42     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   51  +18       2.82    64.42    -0.97    73.30     4.45    26.96    34.30    59.56    80.59    96.02    99.81     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         26   47  +20      -4.73    24.92    -6.02    70.65     4.49    31.57    17.02    39.66    64.86    90.25    99.07     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   41   +9      -3.29    32.73    -3.77    61.62     4.60    15.17     0.34     1.62     5.36    15.28    68.73     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      26   40  +10      -1.33    42.96     1.61    59.13     4.67    13.98     0.05     0.50     1.90     6.78    47.91     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         26   40   +9       3.05    66.11     7.15    56.42     4.66     8.96     0.02     0.11     0.55     2.17    24.16     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   38   +2      -1.95    39.81    -4.36    56.46     4.81     5.01     0.01     0.08     0.47     2.10    23.76     0.00R    0.00  
Watford          26   36   +1       4.39    72.72     7.12    51.64     4.64    -0.22     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.18     4.72     0.03R    0.00  
Stoke            26   36   -5       3.16    66.98    -1.24    51.71     4.53    -6.07     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.12     4.20     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          26   35  +11      -5.79    22.07     3.40    54.18     4.74    15.19     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.84    15.43     0.00R    0.00  
Chelsea          26   33   +2     -12.59     4.32   -13.25    54.02     4.74     8.85     0.00     0.01     0.09     0.62    12.98     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   32   -5       1.39    58.56     2.30    45.83     4.49    -8.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23     1.24R    0.00  
West_Brom        26   32   -8       1.79    60.67    -0.41    45.37     4.45   -12.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18     1.69R    0.00  
Bournemouth      26   28  -14       0.62    54.74     0.14    39.77     4.46   -21.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    19.89R    0.48  
Swansea          26   27  -10      -4.81    25.83    -4.45    40.99     4.51   -13.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    11.97R    0.25  
Norwich          26   24  -20      -2.04    39.86    -3.49    35.57     4.38   -28.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.01R    3.58  
Newcastle        26   24  -22      -0.49    48.53    -3.28    36.51     4.44   -28.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.33R    3.23  
Sunderland       26   23  -18      -2.68    35.83    -1.38    35.02     4.43   -24.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.79R    4.12  
Aston_Villa      26   16  -26      -6.88    14.99    -6.29    25.47     3.99   -37.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.02R   88.32  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 24 February 2016, Derby 1 0 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Hull            32   63  +29       4.30    69.66     7.90    89.72     4.86    39.96    54.90    82.25    99.95    88.80P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         33   62  +25       3.95    67.83     6.07    84.83     4.87    32.11    14.04    41.99    99.27    61.45P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   31   61  +25       6.32    78.52     7.48    87.08     5.16    32.83    28.19    60.91    99.69    74.09P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        33   60  +11      11.61    91.60     5.82    78.78     4.82    12.72     1.22     6.37    88.41    21.48P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           33   57  +16       1.72    57.87     0.87    79.16     4.91    22.44     1.56     7.58    90.73    31.43P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       33   54  +15       5.71    74.92    10.04    73.28     4.77    17.31     0.08     0.68    57.31    11.36P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      32   51   +9       6.24    77.77     7.16    69.37     5.01     8.22     0.02     0.12    22.49     3.83P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         33   49   +6       2.29    61.11     3.21    67.53     4.88     7.08     0.00     0.03    14.12     2.53P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         33   48   +2       3.69    67.37     2.28    64.87     4.75     1.25     0.00     0.00     4.60     0.81P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         32   48   +0       2.58    62.35    -2.64    68.90     5.07     2.66     0.00     0.07    19.35     3.52P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       33   43   -5      -1.62    43.14    -4.04    62.06     4.88    -3.13     0.00     0.00     1.39     0.21P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   32   42   +3      -2.62    37.84     1.12    61.47     5.06     3.58     0.00     0.00     1.65     0.28P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             33   41   -1      -6.25    23.60    -4.30    59.70     4.88     0.53     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.10P    0.02R    0.00  
Reading         32   40   +1      -2.14    40.10     2.80    57.76     4.98    -0.58     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.04P    0.08R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   33   40   -6      -6.11    23.88    -7.57    57.49     4.75    -6.30     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P    0.09R    0.00  
Huddersfield    33   39   -1      -2.88    37.26     4.09    54.53     4.81    -4.31     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.47R    0.01  
Leeds_United    32   38   -5      -1.30    44.28     0.63    55.11     4.85    -7.52     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.42R    0.00  
Fulham          33   36   -3      -6.70    22.11     1.71    52.88     4.86    -4.57     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    1.48R    0.01  
Blackburn       31   34   +0      -8.94    13.48    -1.53    55.27     5.20     1.29     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    0.60R    0.00  
Bristol_City    33   34  -23      -1.68    43.05    -8.90    47.68     4.66   -29.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.76R    0.73  
MK_Dons         33   32  -19      -4.71    28.88    -7.10    46.46     4.69   -23.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.53R    1.27  
Rotherham       33   26  -22      -6.59    20.69    -2.42    38.52     4.56   -30.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.54R   25.28  
Bolton          33   25  -23     -10.71     8.97    -8.97    38.47     4.61   -29.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.06R   26.79  
Charlton        33   25  -34      -6.63    20.18   -13.69    36.96     4.42   -42.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.92R   45.90  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 23 February 2016, Bury 0 0 Barnsley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    31   63  +15      17.07    97.74     9.73    85.10     5.40    17.44    36.69    61.90    98.10    69.32P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            32   59  +22       0.46    51.60     0.26    84.53     5.10    31.41    36.02    63.83    98.33    76.38P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       32   58  +19       7.86    81.69     9.45    80.09     5.26    23.38    10.79    27.78    90.49    42.25P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          31   57  +16       8.95    85.94     7.78    80.64     5.34    20.67    12.24    30.05    91.40    45.09P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         32   53  +11       2.70    62.09     1.25    74.79     5.26    14.82     1.49     5.95    61.53    20.11P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         31   52  +22       1.91    59.16    10.60    75.34     5.44    26.25     2.43     8.50    67.90    24.26P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         32   50   +5       7.17    79.65     6.21    68.69     5.11     4.35     0.06     0.38    16.89     3.51P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        32   48   +5      -1.47    43.22    -3.43    69.49     5.21     8.39     0.12     0.62    22.81     6.54P    0.01R    0.00  
Bradford         31   48   +3       4.74    71.78     1.66    69.57     5.37     4.69     0.15     0.71    22.31     5.23P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnsley         32   46   +6      -1.95    41.16     0.01    67.12     5.18     9.01     0.01     0.17    12.30     3.18P    0.04R    0.00  
Port_Vale        33   45   -2       2.70    63.02     2.05    62.74     4.92    -2.03     0.00     0.00     1.63     0.30P    0.42R    0.00  
Peterborough     32   44   +5      -3.54    34.44    -0.45    65.92     5.25     9.12     0.00     0.05     8.31     2.11P    0.12R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       31   44   -2       3.87    68.20     1.65    63.78     5.41    -3.29     0.00     0.03     3.73     0.75P    0.52R    0.00  
Bury             32   44   -9       6.43    77.95     0.99    59.58     5.05   -14.78     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.08P    2.91R    0.00  
Swindon          32   42   -1      -6.61    22.35    -8.13    62.56     5.21     0.95     0.00     0.00     2.32     0.55P    0.74R    0.00  
Rochdale         32   42   -2      -1.57    43.04    -1.30    61.20     5.22    -2.18     0.00     0.01     1.30     0.30P    1.50R    0.00  
Doncaster        31   36   -6      -5.15    26.89    -4.12    55.99     5.33    -6.79     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P   11.11R    0.05  
Blackpool        32   34   -9      -6.23    23.40    -4.01    51.90     5.08   -10.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.89R    0.37  
Chesterfield     32   34  -10      -8.62    15.40    -7.90    52.57     5.17   -11.08     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   27.79R    0.17  
Fleetwood_Town   31   33   -3      -6.83    20.37     0.60    51.39     5.23    -6.03     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   33.59R    0.35  
Shrewsbury       31   33  -14      -4.40    30.09    -6.20    50.28     5.34   -19.11     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   47.33R    0.86  
Oldham           31   32  -11      -4.65    28.74    -2.64    49.69     5.19   -15.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.68R    0.87  
Crewe            32   28  -22      -3.37    34.72    -1.99    42.46     4.88   -29.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.64R   14.25  
Colchester       32   23  -38      -6.61    20.53   -12.07    35.50     4.76   -49.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.70R   83.09  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 23 February 2016, AFC_Wimbledon 1 0 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Northampton          32   73  +27      19.66    99.00    12.61    96.90     5.29    34.06    92.68    99.79   100.00    99.85P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             32   61  +20       8.36    83.49     7.32    84.24     5.16    25.91     4.43    74.06    98.79    81.04P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           32   58  +22       5.95    75.52    10.00    81.43     5.19    28.26     1.72    56.64    96.22    67.65P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   30   55  +17      10.72    89.84    12.50    79.28     5.74    20.50     1.01    36.94    88.78    47.79P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        31   51  +12       5.75    74.93     8.05    72.17     5.43    12.89     0.04     5.81    50.36    15.19P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            33   51   +7       8.04    82.44    10.20    67.79     4.93     5.55     0.00     0.54    18.51     3.63P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       31   50   +9       5.98    76.10     6.42    72.77     5.45    12.25     0.03     5.63    54.01    16.67P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           31   49  +21      -0.92    45.34    10.01    73.50     5.41    26.78     0.05     9.34    62.93    25.22P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              31   49   +6       1.74    58.40    -1.10    71.64     5.41     9.05     0.01     4.30    44.57    14.69P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        32   49   +2      -3.41    35.09   -10.82    72.72     5.30     8.81     0.02     5.64    52.90    20.43P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        32   47   +3       3.97    67.74     4.59    64.52     5.16     0.35     0.00     0.17     7.27     1.56P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             30   46   +4       4.71    71.16     4.18    67.60     5.70     3.23     0.00     1.12    20.38     5.03P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                32   41   -1      -3.86    33.16    -2.45    60.72     5.21    -0.27     0.00     0.01     1.64     0.41P    0.00R    0.00  
Exeter               32   41   -7      -0.18    49.49    -2.52    58.58     5.23    -9.56     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.14P    0.03R    0.00  
Barnet               31   39   -6       1.76    59.11     2.23    57.14     5.39    -9.73     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.07P    0.14R    0.00  
Notts_County         31   39   -8      -5.14    27.92   -10.17    61.02     5.50    -5.88     0.00     0.01     2.24     0.58P    0.02R    0.00  
Crawley_Town         32   38  -16      -3.10    36.80   -11.62    56.73     5.22   -16.87     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P    0.21R    0.01  
Morecambe            32   36   -6      -5.10    28.40    -0.98    55.07     5.33    -6.52     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P    0.41R    0.03  
Stevenage            33   34  -13      -9.83    13.19   -10.56    50.20     4.97   -15.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.66R    0.31  
Newport_County       30   31  -10      -5.26    26.32    -2.66    50.12     5.48   -14.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.98R    0.61  
Hartlepool           29   27  -20      -2.44    38.61    -4.25    43.64     5.41   -30.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.40R   10.46  
Yeovil               32   26  -15     -13.82     4.95    -9.38    43.48     5.16   -17.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.11R    7.88  
York                 32   26  -23      -9.64    11.97   -10.60    41.14     4.94   -29.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.32R   18.69  
Dag_&_Red            31   20  -25     -13.68     4.00   -10.99    36.02     5.17   -32.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.72R   62.00  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 23 February 2016, Braintree_Town 2 0 Halifax; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       35   79  +44       7.45    81.22     8.11   100.62     4.27    53.76    81.40   100.00    88.70P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     35   77  +28      14.30    95.04     5.68    95.47     4.51    33.24    18.13   100.00    40.82P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          33   62  +37      -3.34    33.47     6.39    84.84     4.80    44.54     0.47    97.37    37.02P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          35   55  +16      -0.96    45.82     4.19    70.53     4.39    16.67     0.00    15.78     2.66P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        34   55   -5       8.59    83.69    -4.24    70.88     4.74    -5.85     0.00    15.22     1.59P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         34   54  +10      -4.21    31.41    -7.19    74.16     4.72    15.38     0.00    40.52     9.45P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   31   53  +12       6.29    77.87     5.72    74.82     5.26    14.07     0.00    45.15     7.27P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   31   52  +13       4.89    71.73     6.22    75.37     5.41    17.20     0.00    51.09     7.41P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     35   52   +8       2.19    59.77     5.58    66.82     4.46     7.36     0.00     3.60     0.49P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        32   50   +5       1.82    58.42    -1.10    72.07     5.15     9.45     0.00    24.68     3.58P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           35   49   +9      -5.63    26.70    -0.93    64.33     4.50     9.13     0.00     1.39     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     33   47   +7      -2.18    40.17     1.25    66.69     4.92     9.81     0.00     4.81     0.74P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot        33   42   -8       0.21    51.53    -2.86    59.59     4.91    -8.39     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.14R    0.00  
Bromley          32   41   -4       2.12    60.38     5.41    60.43     5.31    -4.06     0.00     0.32     0.03P    0.15R    0.00  
Chester          33   39   -8       0.26    52.05     2.52    55.16     4.82   -10.90     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.38R    0.02  
Southport        33   39  -12       3.53    67.45     2.48    54.96     4.76   -14.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.96R    0.04  
Barrow           32   38  -17       4.97    72.98     1.68    54.01     5.12   -22.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.05R    0.12  
Guiseley         33   38  -17       3.85    68.61    -0.13    50.57     4.60   -24.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.32R    0.30  
Altrincham       33   34  -23       1.49    58.38    -2.55    48.51     4.81   -28.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.87R    2.12  
Halifax          33   33  -21      -7.12    20.60   -11.78    48.66     4.89   -25.22     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.57R    2.01  
Boreham_Wood     33   32   -7      -5.26    27.20     3.32    47.69     4.81    -9.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.26R    1.94  
Welling          33   26  -22      -7.88    16.32    -5.24    39.32     4.59   -28.68     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.40R   42.96  
Torquay          31   26  -24     -10.59     9.39   -14.04    46.25     5.38   -24.67     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.94R    6.70  
Kidderminster    34   24  -21     -14.48     3.68    -8.48    38.90     4.64   -23.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.95R   43.78