Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 20 February 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 14 February 2016, Arsenal 2 1 Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        26   53  +19      14.81    97.61    15.41    72.08     4.70    22.98    22.70    47.74    72.02    92.49    99.40     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   51  +27       5.52    77.14    11.95    71.81     4.64    33.57    25.75    50.48    73.92    93.32    99.48     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   51  +18       2.90    64.66    -0.82    73.25     4.47    26.93    34.15    59.82    80.47    95.93    99.76     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         26   47  +20      -4.68    25.24    -5.88    70.62     4.50    31.49    16.99    39.61    65.12    90.24    99.02     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   41   +9      -3.24    33.10    -3.71    61.65     4.59    15.22     0.34     1.67     5.33    15.57    69.13     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      26   40  +10      -1.20    43.53     1.84    59.07     4.67    13.82     0.04     0.47     1.94     6.48    47.22     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         26   40   +9       3.17    66.83     7.36    56.35     4.65     8.86     0.01     0.10     0.52     2.14    23.95     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   38   +2      -2.13    38.92    -4.70    56.53     4.79     5.13     0.01     0.08     0.44     2.12    24.39     0.00     0.00  
Watford          26   36   +1       4.38    72.49     7.11    51.66     4.66    -0.23     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.19     4.71     0.02R    0.00  
Stoke            26   36   -5       3.22    67.37    -1.16    51.72     4.52    -6.10     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11     4.13     0.02R    0.00  
Everton          26   35  +11      -5.69    22.51     3.56    54.08     4.76    15.05     0.01     0.02     0.14     0.77    15.05     0.00R    0.00  
Chelsea          26   33   +2     -12.68     4.22   -13.43    54.09     4.72     8.91     0.00     0.01     0.09     0.64    13.24     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   32   -5       1.23    57.40     2.06    45.96     4.54    -8.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.33     1.20R    0.00  
West_Brom        26   32   -8       1.85    61.03    -0.29    45.32     4.46   -12.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18     1.77R    0.00  
Bournemouth      26   28  -14       0.65    54.81     0.15    39.81     4.45   -21.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.75R    0.51  
Swansea          26   27  -10      -4.82    25.93    -4.48    40.95     4.47   -13.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    12.12R    0.21  
Norwich          26   24  -20      -2.02    40.00    -3.48    35.56     4.40   -28.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.51R    3.60  
Newcastle        26   24  -22      -0.66    47.56    -3.59    36.58     4.44   -28.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.79R    3.23  
Sunderland       26   23  -18      -2.71    35.74    -1.45    35.05     4.44   -24.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.81R    4.07  
Aston_Villa      26   16  -26      -7.03    14.53    -6.43    25.48     4.00   -37.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.01R   88.38  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 20 February 2016, Bolton 1 1 QPR; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Hull            31   60  +28       3.10    64.56     7.43    88.22     5.07    39.13    52.89    80.06    99.86    87.44P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         32   59  +24       2.98    63.93     5.93    83.67     5.08    31.76    15.73    43.86    98.51    62.38P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   30   58  +23       5.71    76.64     6.91    85.70     5.34    31.13    27.95    59.33    99.16    72.74P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        32   57   +7      11.48    91.92     3.88    76.72     4.98     8.19     1.12     5.59    77.78    18.14P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           32   54  +15       0.69    53.26     0.74    77.81     5.08    21.85     1.88     8.43    85.51    30.93P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       32   53  +15       6.12    77.01    10.08    73.88     5.02    17.66     0.33     1.87    61.75    13.51P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         32   49   +8       2.70    62.84     3.86    68.55     5.04     8.68     0.01     0.17    20.67     3.97P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      31   48   +8       5.04    73.42     6.85    68.39     5.27     8.14     0.04     0.25    19.24     3.50P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         31   48   +1       3.43    66.24    -2.28    70.10     5.24     3.49     0.05     0.42    28.04     5.61P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         32   45   +1       2.63    62.75     2.07    63.79     4.96     1.01     0.00     0.01     3.79     0.67P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   31   42   +4      -2.02    40.57     1.12    62.45     5.21     4.01     0.00     0.01     3.00     0.57P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             32   40   -1      -5.86    25.00    -4.24    59.77     5.10     0.11     0.00     0.00     0.94     0.23P    0.08R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   32   40   -3      -5.74    24.91    -6.09    58.91     4.99    -3.23     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.08P    0.07R    0.00  
Brentford       32   40   -8      -2.10    40.53    -5.27    60.19     5.14    -6.58     0.00     0.00     0.72     0.12P    0.10R    0.00  
Huddersfield    32   38   -1      -2.45    38.96     4.24    54.77     5.03    -4.55     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    0.95R    0.02  
Reading         31   37   +0      -3.31    34.36     2.54    56.71     5.23    -0.76     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P    0.49R    0.01  
Leeds_United    31   37   -5      -0.82    46.62     0.77    55.70     5.08    -7.24     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    0.68R    0.01  
Fulham          32   35   -3      -6.22    23.28     1.84    53.05     5.11    -4.90     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.49R    0.06  
Blackburn       30   34   +1      -8.01    15.86    -1.06    56.14     5.41     1.60     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.06P    0.69R    0.01  
Bristol_City    32   34  -19      -1.82    42.27    -7.28    49.52     4.96   -24.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.54R    0.57  
MK_Dons         32   31  -19      -4.27    30.66    -6.95    46.94     4.95   -23.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.64R    2.01  
Rotherham       32   26  -21      -5.89    22.97    -2.33    39.45     4.72   -29.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.45R   25.31  
Bolton          32   25  -22     -10.06    10.38    -8.93    39.34     4.79   -29.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.20R   27.30  
Charlton        32   25  -33      -6.00    22.15   -13.82    37.96     4.62   -42.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.60R   44.70  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 20 February 2016, Barnsley 1 0 Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    30   63  +17      17.62    98.29    10.63    86.91     5.60    20.08    47.65    71.61    98.96    77.41P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            32   59  +22       0.69    52.35     0.57    84.40     5.14    31.25    29.99    60.66    98.04    73.99P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       32   58  +19       8.06    82.33     9.75    80.03     5.25    23.29     8.78    25.25    89.80    39.88P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          31   57  +16       8.97    85.78     7.82    80.59     5.35    20.59    10.04    27.32    90.91    42.49P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         32   53  +11       2.38    60.71     0.74    74.86     5.27    14.97     1.35     5.44    61.10    19.77P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         31   52  +22       1.80    58.39    10.45    75.46     5.40    26.46     1.90     7.78    67.93    23.56P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        32   48   +5      -1.47    43.40    -3.51    69.48     5.17     8.39     0.07     0.48    21.71     6.09P    0.00R    0.00  
Bradford         31   48   +3       4.78    71.99     1.67    69.58     5.29     4.70     0.10     0.63    20.93     4.80P    0.01R    0.00  
Southend         31   47   +3       6.30    77.34     5.32    66.73     5.36     1.93     0.03     0.18     9.64     1.95P    0.05R    0.00  
Barnsley         31   45   +6      -1.69    42.40    -0.11    67.81     5.38     9.52     0.03     0.29    15.40     3.83P    0.04R    0.00  
Port_Vale        33   45   -2       2.54    61.97     1.85    62.84     4.92    -1.91     0.00     0.01     1.70     0.32P    0.40R    0.00  
Peterborough     31   44   +6      -2.26    39.61     0.33    68.06     5.48    11.30     0.04     0.32    16.74     4.48P    0.06R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       31   44   -2       4.10    69.32     2.01    63.61     5.36    -3.54     0.00     0.02     3.30     0.60P    0.49R    0.00  
Bury             31   43   -9       6.66    78.90     0.92    59.78     5.28   -15.16     0.00     0.00     0.72     0.12P    2.83R    0.00  
Swindon          32   42   -1      -6.44    23.01    -7.91    62.54     5.21     0.92     0.00     0.00     2.19     0.52P    0.68R    0.00  
Rochdale         31   39   -3      -2.78    37.64    -1.69    59.79     5.45    -2.93     0.00     0.00     0.81     0.17P    2.89R    0.00  
Doncaster        31   36   -6      -5.24    26.54    -4.23    55.95     5.37    -6.85     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   10.42R    0.04  
Blackpool        32   34   -9      -6.08    24.39    -3.80    51.87     5.10   -10.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.87R    0.34  
Chesterfield     32   34  -10      -8.79    15.23    -8.13    52.69     5.19   -10.93     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   24.95R    0.14  
Fleetwood_Town   30   33   -2      -6.02    23.22     0.78    52.66     5.48    -5.24     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   24.34R    0.22  
Shrewsbury       31   33  -14      -4.26    31.20    -6.04    50.22     5.34   -19.19     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   45.77R    0.83  
Oldham           30   29  -12      -6.19    22.22    -3.52    47.30     5.35   -17.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.47R    2.33  
Crewe            32   28  -22      -3.30    34.86    -1.81    42.41     4.86   -29.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.13R   13.61  
Colchester       32   23  -38      -6.69    20.28   -12.09    35.41     4.75   -50.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.61R   82.49  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 20 February 2016, Barnet 1 2 AFC_Wimbledon; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Northampton          31   70  +26      18.43    98.79    12.21    95.74     5.47    33.74    89.02    99.61   100.00    99.70P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             31   60  +20       8.76    85.26     7.35    85.08     5.35    26.58     8.10    80.09    99.00    85.42P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           31   55  +19       5.71    75.05     9.03    79.59     5.41    24.92     1.33    43.95    91.79    56.92P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   29   52  +16       9.57    87.59    12.17    77.62     5.94    19.44     0.99    30.09    82.15    40.73P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            33   51   +7       8.03    82.36    10.16    67.72     4.92     5.44     0.00     0.64    18.17     3.62P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       31   50   +9       5.75    74.84     6.12    72.74     5.48    12.21     0.10     6.72    53.85    17.66P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           30   49  +22       0.32    51.28    10.81    75.54     5.67    28.74     0.33    20.14    74.77    36.60P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              31   49   +6       1.81    58.59    -0.98    71.63     5.39     9.04     0.03     5.07    44.83    15.45P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        32   49   +2      -3.35    35.18   -10.74    72.77     5.27     8.92     0.03     6.38    53.25    21.13P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        30   48  +11       4.73    71.23     7.98    70.51     5.64    11.81     0.05     4.42    38.77    11.76P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        32   47   +3       3.90    67.39     4.52    64.47     5.16     0.31     0.00     0.22     7.20     1.52P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle             29   46   +5       5.68    75.17     4.57    68.98     5.94     4.19     0.02     2.52    28.27     7.43P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                32   41   -1      -4.00    32.36    -2.65    60.75     5.21    -0.23     0.00     0.02     1.70     0.40P    0.01R    0.00  
Exeter               31   41   -4      -0.20    49.42    -1.74    60.20     5.42    -6.17     0.00     0.03     1.52     0.35P    0.02R    0.00  
Notts_County         30   39   -7      -3.98    32.54    -9.51    62.29     5.76    -5.06     0.00     0.10     4.25     1.22P    0.01R    0.00  
Crawley_Town         32   38  -16      -3.03    36.83   -11.58    56.73     5.23   -16.83     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.05P    0.21R    0.02  
Morecambe            32   36   -6      -5.47    26.54    -1.60    55.20     5.31    -6.34     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.03P    0.45R    0.04  
Barnet               30   36   -7       0.37    52.27     1.74    54.90     5.61   -11.72     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P    0.72R    0.05  
Stevenage            33   34  -13      -9.73    13.29   -10.40    50.13     4.94   -15.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.12R    0.40  
Newport_County       30   31  -10      -5.15    26.73    -2.57    50.15     5.49   -14.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    4.35R    0.65  
Hartlepool           29   27  -20      -2.28    39.28    -4.04    43.62     5.44   -30.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.14R   10.92  
York                 31   26  -22      -8.76    13.75   -10.40    42.13     5.14   -28.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.96R   15.15  
Yeovil               31   25  -15     -13.89     4.75    -9.80    43.57     5.39   -17.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.07R    8.66  
Dag_&_Red            31   20  -25     -13.53     4.06   -10.62    35.97     5.17   -32.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.94R   64.10  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 20 February 2016, Altrincham 1 1 Guiseley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       34   78  +44       8.02    83.65     8.04   102.01     4.48    55.43    88.83   100.00    93.31P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     34   74  +27      13.14    93.92     5.36    94.42     4.72    33.12    10.86   100.00    35.44P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          32   59  +35      -4.14    30.05     5.71    83.71     5.01    43.28     0.30    95.93    36.64P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         34   54  +10      -4.38    30.64    -7.39    74.26     4.73    15.52     0.00    44.41    10.76P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        33   54   -5       8.59    83.83    -4.74    70.31     4.87    -7.41     0.00    14.88     1.67P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          34   52  +14      -1.79    41.90     3.34    69.34     4.64    15.27     0.00    13.14     2.19P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   31   52  +13       4.70    71.21     5.97    75.38     5.38    17.23     0.00    54.00     7.90P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     35   52   +8       2.44    60.92     5.98    66.77     4.47     7.26     0.00     4.25     0.53P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   30   50  +10       5.67    75.89     5.16    73.41     5.48    12.35     0.00    37.30     5.93P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        32   50   +5       1.75    58.08    -1.26    72.00     5.18     9.32     0.00    26.87     4.11P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           34   49  +11      -5.01    28.72    -0.19    65.26     4.70    10.37     0.00     2.93     0.50P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     33   47   +7      -2.23    39.97     1.19    66.79     4.92     9.93     0.00     5.73     0.96P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot        33   42   -8       0.39    52.59    -2.60    59.53     4.90    -8.47     0.00     0.10     0.01P    0.18R    0.00  
Bromley          32   41   -4       2.39    61.51     5.95    60.32     5.39    -4.21     0.00     0.45     0.04P    0.21R    0.01  
Chester          33   39   -8       0.39    52.67     2.74    55.17     4.84   -10.87     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.53R    0.05  
Southport        33   39  -12       3.58    67.56     2.63    54.89     4.78   -14.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.27R    0.08  
Guiseley         32   38  -16       4.53    71.30    -0.07    51.49     4.79   -24.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.55R    0.37  
Barrow           32   38  -17       5.00    73.31     1.79    54.02     5.18   -22.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.46R    0.15  
Altrincham       33   34  -23       1.57    58.81    -2.52    48.53     4.80   -28.13     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.18R    2.91  
Halifax          32   33  -19      -6.52    22.14   -10.92    49.73     5.06   -23.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.61R    1.79  
Boreham_Wood     33   32   -7      -5.50    26.11     2.97    47.77     4.78    -9.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.03R    2.38  
Welling          32   26  -20      -7.39    17.58    -4.52    40.57     4.84   -26.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.37R   37.61  
Kidderminster    33   24  -19     -14.12     3.90    -7.97    39.96     4.85   -21.74     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.35R   40.06  
Torquay          30   23  -26     -11.34     7.11   -14.64    44.70     5.59   -26.57     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.26R   14.59