Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 19 February 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 14 February 2016, Arsenal 2 1 Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        26   53  +19      14.66    97.49    15.19    72.13     4.73    23.05    23.24    47.91    72.46    92.72    99.41     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   51  +27       5.40    76.53    11.74    71.83     4.67    33.65    25.66    50.71    74.21    93.31    99.43     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   51  +18       3.01    65.31    -0.70    73.23     4.47    26.85    33.73    59.42    80.12    95.86    99.74     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         26   47  +20      -4.69    25.26    -5.92    70.62     4.50    31.54    16.96    39.65    64.70    90.22    98.96     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   41   +9      -3.22    33.12    -3.65    61.62     4.60    15.18     0.32     1.68     5.46    15.49    69.09     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      26   40  +10      -1.07    44.37     1.98    59.02     4.62    13.80     0.07     0.41     1.80     6.42    47.37     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         26   40   +9       3.15    66.61     7.28    56.36     4.66     8.87     0.01     0.11     0.51     2.19    24.11     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   38   +2      -2.10    39.08    -4.60    56.54     4.78     5.09     0.02     0.08     0.49     2.04    24.51     0.00     0.00  
Watford          26   36   +1       4.49    73.08     7.30    51.62     4.68    -0.28     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.14     4.71     0.03R    0.00  
Stoke            26   36   -5       3.16    67.38    -1.21    51.73     4.54    -6.06     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.14     4.24     0.03R    0.00  
Everton          26   35  +11      -5.64    22.58     3.59    54.14     4.74    15.15     0.00     0.02     0.15     0.88    15.11     0.01R    0.00  
Chelsea          26   33   +2     -12.61     4.38   -13.27    54.03     4.69     8.83     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.60    12.95     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   32   -5       1.20    57.56     2.05    45.93     4.50    -8.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.25     1.18R    0.00  
West_Brom        26   32   -8       1.67    60.06    -0.62    45.39     4.41   -12.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13     1.64R    0.00  
Bournemouth      26   28  -14       0.58    54.35     0.06    39.83     4.47   -21.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    19.52R    0.50  
Swansea          26   27  -10      -4.90    25.05    -4.60    41.05     4.50   -13.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    11.74R    0.23  
Norwich          26   24  -20      -1.96    40.46    -3.39    35.47     4.37   -28.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.39R    3.70  
Newcastle        26   24  -22      -0.59    47.77    -3.48    36.57     4.46   -28.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.59R    3.33  
Sunderland       26   23  -18      -2.69    35.76    -1.46    35.02     4.44   -24.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.88R    4.16  
Aston_Villa      26   16  -26      -6.94    14.54    -6.29    25.48     4.00   -37.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.98R   88.07  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 16 February 2016, Blackburn 3 0 Fulham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Hull            31   60  +28       3.29    65.32     7.76    88.10     5.08    38.96    52.41    79.93    99.81    87.21P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   30   58  +23       5.66    76.69     6.89    85.73     5.33    31.19    28.96    60.66    99.26    73.57P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        31   57  +10      11.73    92.48     5.36    78.40     5.18    11.66     2.57    10.56    85.60    24.83P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         31   56  +22       2.38    60.81     5.55    82.90     5.28    31.18    13.84    38.82    97.58    58.43P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       31   53  +16       7.04    80.39    10.48    75.32     5.25    18.79     0.97     4.05    71.84    17.38P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           31   51  +13      -0.30    48.32    -0.34    76.06     5.32    19.69     1.16     5.27    76.05    24.96P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      31   48   +8       5.11    73.71     6.91    68.33     5.22     8.06     0.03     0.24    18.75     3.44P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         31   48   +1       3.42    66.24    -2.39    70.14     5.27     3.56     0.06     0.39    28.18     5.77P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         31   46   +5       2.10    60.39     2.30    66.73     5.24     5.43     0.01     0.07    12.72     2.39P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   31   42   +4      -1.91    41.09     1.28    62.35     5.22     3.91     0.00     0.00     2.91     0.56P    0.02R    0.00  
Preston         31   42   +0       1.45    57.62     1.72    61.98     5.17    -0.20     0.00     0.00     2.14     0.36P    0.01R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   31   40   -2      -4.70    28.61    -5.58    60.41     5.24    -2.05     0.00     0.00     1.22     0.26P    0.04R    0.00  
Brentford       31   40   -6      -1.52    43.14    -4.60    61.75     5.36    -4.25     0.00     0.00     2.04     0.38P    0.05R    0.00  
QPR             31   39   -1      -5.50    25.87    -4.23    60.30     5.34     0.36     0.00     0.00     1.35     0.35P    0.09R    0.00  
Reading         31   37   +0      -3.19    35.11     2.74    56.76     5.17    -0.70     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.02P    0.54R    0.01  
Leeds_United    31   37   -5      -0.84    46.13     0.73    55.79     5.08    -7.08     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    0.87R    0.01  
Huddersfield    31   35   -2      -3.82    32.33     3.61    53.09     5.24    -5.69     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    2.90R    0.08  
Blackburn       30   34   +1      -8.04    15.60    -1.11    56.09     5.39     1.54     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.06P    0.88R    0.02  
Fulham          31   32   -6      -6.65    21.22     0.84    51.71     5.31    -7.45     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     5.64R    0.34  
MK_Dons         31   31  -17      -3.60    33.46    -6.03    48.87     5.18   -20.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.18R    1.33  
Bristol_City    31   31  -21      -2.78    37.54    -8.23    47.22     5.12   -27.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.47R    2.92  
Rotherham       31   26  -19      -5.49    24.26    -1.97    39.94     4.87   -29.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.38R   26.03  
Charlton        31   25  -30      -5.67    23.26   -12.62    38.92     4.85   -39.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.23R   39.96  
Bolton          31   24  -22      -9.79    10.21    -9.07    39.72     5.04   -29.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.72R   29.30  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 16 February 2016, Blackpool 0 0 Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    30   63  +17      17.71    98.39    10.75    86.96     5.58    20.13    45.65    69.70    98.98    75.68P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       31   58  +20       8.84    84.90     9.81    82.18     5.47    25.43    16.59    38.35    94.41    51.17P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          30   57  +17       9.97    88.72     8.34    81.94     5.57    21.57    15.34    35.49    93.62    49.12P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            31   56  +21      -0.76    46.03     0.01    82.83     5.36    30.32    19.66    44.51    95.87    63.38P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         31   52  +22       1.90    58.60    10.58    75.42     5.45    26.37     1.80     7.00    67.55    22.96P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         31   50   +8       2.11    59.77    -0.10    72.85     5.49    11.35     0.55     2.54    45.65    12.83P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         31   47   +3       6.23    76.97     5.28    66.73     5.33     1.94     0.03     0.17     9.88     1.87P    0.04R    0.00  
Bradford         30   47   +3       5.39    74.87     2.01    70.14     5.54     4.94     0.19     0.88    25.45     5.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        31   45   +4      -2.61    37.93    -3.72    68.22     5.44     7.91     0.05     0.30    17.05     4.58P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale        32   45   -1       3.53    66.42     2.25    63.79     5.10    -1.52     0.00     0.01     3.17     0.55P    0.18R    0.00  
Peterborough     30   44   +9      -2.24    39.34     1.28    69.85     5.67    14.94     0.12     0.80    27.73     7.58P    0.02R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       30   44   -1       5.03    73.38     2.30    65.05     5.55    -2.45     0.00     0.06     6.25     1.11P    0.19R    0.00  
Barnsley         30   42   +5      -2.61    38.03    -0.03    66.27     5.61     8.58     0.03     0.18    10.91     2.60P    0.07R    0.00  
Bury             30   40  -12       6.37    78.42    -0.14    58.03     5.49   -18.21     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.08P    5.17R    0.02  
Swindon          31   39   -2      -7.55    18.80    -8.08    61.27     5.43     0.43     0.00     0.00     1.61     0.31P    1.24R    0.00  
Rochdale         30   38   -3      -2.60    38.24    -1.90    59.82     5.63    -3.42     0.00     0.01     1.09     0.23P    2.48R    0.01  
Doncaster        30   36   -5      -4.23    30.77    -3.75    57.11     5.60    -6.16     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.06P    6.64R    0.05  
Blackpool        31   34   -8      -5.29    26.88    -3.76    53.05     5.31    -9.99     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   20.56R    0.35  
Shrewsbury       31   33  -14      -4.31    30.79    -6.13    50.21     5.31   -19.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.88R    1.19  
Chesterfield     31   31  -12      -9.30    13.12    -8.50    51.33     5.41   -12.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.96R    0.69  
Fleetwood_Town   29   30   -3      -7.22    18.20     0.38    50.94     5.65    -6.33     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   32.44R    0.90  
Crewe            31   28  -20      -2.67    37.90    -1.20    43.39     5.09   -28.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.29R   14.24  
Oldham           29   26  -13      -7.77    16.02    -4.45    45.20     5.60   -18.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.99R    7.77  
Colchester       31   23  -35      -6.28    21.63   -11.25    36.74     5.02   -47.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.85R   74.78  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 16 February 2016, Accrington_Stanley 1 1 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Northampton          30   67  +25      17.15    98.21    11.73    94.24     5.71    32.97    80.47    98.84   100.00    99.09P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             30   59  +20       9.39    87.28     7.71    85.73     5.58    26.97    13.51    81.91    99.34    86.80P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           30   55  +20       6.82    79.54     9.63    81.45     5.60    26.63     4.16    57.19    96.13    68.18P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   28   49  +15       8.08    83.92    11.46    75.48     6.14    17.64     0.67    18.78    74.76    30.48P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              30   49   +7       2.75    62.97    -0.59    73.08     5.63    10.15     0.15     7.92    59.47    21.29P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           29   48  +22       0.74    53.45    10.86    76.22     5.85    29.26     0.90    22.49    81.43    39.93P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            32   48   +6       6.89    79.32     9.85    66.21     5.14     4.63     0.00     0.35    15.47     2.97P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       30   47   +8       4.75    71.44     6.00    71.16     5.71    11.28     0.07     4.06    47.60    14.13P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        31   46   +1      -4.48    30.25   -10.98    71.12     5.52     7.88     0.03     3.78    46.41    16.74P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        29   45  +10       3.41    66.09     7.41    68.93     5.86    10.87     0.04     2.73    33.86     9.43P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        31   44   +1       2.95    63.96     3.54    62.96     5.39    -1.55     0.00     0.10     6.25     1.31P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle             28   43   +4       4.68    71.95     4.60    67.20     6.14     2.89     0.02     1.50    23.27     5.58P    0.00R    0.00  
Exeter               30   40   -4       0.27    51.85    -1.50    60.75     5.68    -5.93     0.00     0.04     3.11     0.63P    0.04R    0.00  
Notts_County         29   39   -6      -3.35    34.93    -9.62    63.87     5.97    -3.80     0.00     0.30     9.65     2.73P    0.01R    0.00  
Luton                31   38   -2      -5.05    28.06    -2.79    59.50     5.44    -0.69     0.00     0.01     1.68     0.40P    0.08R    0.01  
Crawley_Town         31   37  -16      -2.76    38.06   -11.66    56.64     5.47   -17.48     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.08P    0.54R    0.05  
Morecambe            31   36   -5      -4.35    30.79    -0.97    56.44     5.48    -5.51     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.08P    0.45R    0.05  
Barnet               29   36   -6       1.34    57.41     2.05    56.20     5.83   -10.83     0.00     0.01     0.67     0.13P    0.72R    0.10  
Stevenage            32   34  -12      -8.89    15.47   -10.16    51.57     5.22   -14.65     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     2.88R    0.41  
Newport_County       29   30  -10      -4.75    28.21    -2.49    50.30     5.66   -14.46     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    6.07R    1.17  
Hartlepool           28   27  -19      -1.69    42.29    -4.20    44.79     5.67   -29.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.45R   10.84  
York                 30   26  -20      -8.05    15.72    -9.42    43.44     5.37   -26.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.89R   14.52  
Yeovil               30   24  -15     -13.55     4.85    -9.87    43.52     5.60   -18.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.15R   12.68  
Dag_&_Red            30   20  -24     -12.68     5.00   -10.58    37.25     5.43   -31.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.70R   60.18  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 16 February 2016, Altrincham 0 3 Chester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       33   75  +43       6.92    80.07     7.83   100.40     4.70    54.44    85.67   100.00    91.24P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     33   71  +26      12.30    92.71     5.53    93.11     4.98    32.60    12.37    99.94    35.55P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          31   59  +37      -3.05    34.41     7.40    86.15     5.22    46.86     1.95    97.90    39.45P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         33   54  +11      -3.29    34.76    -6.79    75.49     4.97    16.36     0.00    52.10    12.05P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   31   52  +13       4.61    70.69     5.82    75.35     5.41    17.19     0.00    51.67     7.23P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        32   51   -6       7.48    81.07    -5.10    68.82     5.09    -8.19     0.00     9.28     0.96P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   30   50  +10       5.79    76.39     5.32    73.40     5.48    12.38     0.00    35.18     5.46P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        31   50   +6       2.63    61.84    -1.06    73.03     5.33     9.75     0.00    31.88     4.57P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          33   49  +12      -2.55    38.80     2.65    67.80     4.83    13.38     0.00     7.84     1.26P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           33   49  +12      -4.21    31.41    -0.11    66.95     4.95    11.92     0.00     6.01     1.02P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     34   49   +6       1.72    58.01     5.35    65.36     4.66     5.59     0.00     2.46     0.27P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     33   47   +7      -2.18    40.13     1.23    66.80     4.92     9.96     0.00     5.22     0.86P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot        32   42   -7       1.05    55.66    -2.63    60.93     5.10    -7.39     0.00     0.31     0.04P    0.09R    0.00  
Southport        32   39  -10       4.22    70.62     3.45    55.92     4.97   -13.35     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.42R    0.07  
Bromley          31   38   -5       1.16    56.10     5.57    58.35     5.60    -5.79     0.00     0.17     0.03P    0.71R    0.04  
Chester          32   38   -8       0.64    53.82     2.54    55.34     5.05   -11.12     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.74R    0.07  
Barrow           32   38  -17       5.04    73.25     1.77    54.04     5.16   -22.14     0.00     0.02     0.00     4.01R    0.22  
Guiseley         31   37  -16       4.76    72.72    -0.21    51.66     5.05   -24.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.65R    0.51  
Altrincham       32   33  -23       1.98    61.15    -2.38    49.06     5.03   -27.89     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.14R    2.83  
Boreham_Wood     32   32   -6      -4.53    29.84     3.49    49.43     5.05    -8.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.14R    1.59  
Halifax          31   30  -21      -7.75    17.54   -12.39    47.15     5.24   -27.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.11R    6.02  
Welling          31   26  -18      -6.91    18.95    -3.89    41.80     5.04   -25.02     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.20R   27.79  
Kidderminster    32   23  -19     -13.72     4.02    -8.04    40.54     5.10   -21.39     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.21R   35.98  
Torquay          29   20  -27     -12.82     4.36   -15.32    42.81     5.81   -27.99     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.57R   24.89