Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 18 February 2016 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 14 February 2016, Arsenal 2 1 Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Leicester        26   53  +19      14.74    97.52    15.32    72.11     4.70    23.02    22.48    47.96    72.35    92.50    99.36     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   51  +27       5.39    76.53    11.78    71.81     4.70    33.61    25.23    50.00    73.59    93.23    99.41     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   51  +18       2.69    63.70    -1.18    73.35     4.48    27.06    34.65    60.07    80.80    95.99    99.77     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         26   47  +20      -4.59    25.73    -5.78    70.64     4.51    31.54    17.23    39.58    64.84    90.08    99.01     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   41   +9      -3.33    32.59    -3.83    61.63     4.59    15.21     0.32     1.64     5.26    15.57    69.40     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      26   40  +10      -1.14    43.83     1.89    59.10     4.67    13.91     0.08     0.54     1.97     6.72    47.86     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         26   40   +9       3.09    66.37     7.25    56.32     4.65     8.83     0.01     0.10     0.46     1.99    23.78     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   38   +2      -1.95    39.88    -4.40    56.47     4.75     4.99     0.01     0.09     0.47     2.11    23.87     0.00     0.00  
Watford          26   36   +1       4.46    72.84     7.23    51.64     4.64    -0.29     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.16     4.70     0.03R    0.00  
Stoke            26   36   -5       3.22    67.38    -1.18    51.73     4.52    -6.06     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.14     4.13     0.03R    0.00  
Everton          26   35  +11      -5.63    22.62     3.61    54.05     4.74    15.00     0.00     0.01     0.13     0.81    14.90     0.01R    0.00  
Chelsea          26   33   +2     -12.68     4.27   -13.41    54.12     4.71     8.94     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.68    13.40     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   32   -5       1.34    58.41     2.23    45.91     4.48    -8.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.27     1.23R    0.00  
West_Brom        26   32   -8       1.78    60.70    -0.40    45.36     4.43   -12.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12     1.82R    0.00  
Bournemouth      26   28  -14       0.56    54.38     0.02    39.83     4.44   -21.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.57R    0.46  
Swansea          26   27  -10      -4.80    25.66    -4.43    40.94     4.49   -13.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    12.15R    0.30  
Norwich          26   24  -20      -2.13    39.43    -3.69    35.56     4.40   -28.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.12R    3.66  
Newcastle        26   24  -22      -0.52    48.51    -3.26    36.52     4.42   -28.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.47R    3.32  
Sunderland       26   23  -18      -2.72    35.72    -1.52    35.03     4.45   -24.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.61R    4.17  
Aston_Villa      26   16  -26      -6.91    14.85    -6.24    25.48     4.02   -37.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.94R   88.09  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 16 February 2016, Blackburn 3 0 Fulham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Hull            31   60  +28       3.18    64.80     7.48    88.21     5.10    39.11    53.33    80.43    99.82    87.57P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   30   58  +23       5.62    76.60     6.85    85.76     5.36    31.21    28.62    60.38    99.19    73.16P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton        31   57  +10      11.79    92.81     5.43    78.42     5.21    11.66     2.55    10.60    85.58    25.09P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley         31   56  +22       2.29    60.49     5.39    82.95     5.27    31.25    13.65    38.74    97.69    58.64P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       31   53  +16       7.17    80.75    10.65    75.28     5.23    18.74     0.80     3.90    71.70    17.31P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           31   51  +13      -0.22    48.81    -0.22    76.03     5.31    19.63     0.99     5.22    76.18    24.93P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      31   48   +8       5.23    74.35     7.10    68.25     5.25     7.93     0.02     0.21    18.45     3.35P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich         31   48   +1       3.50    66.19    -2.24    70.12     5.26     3.48     0.04     0.42    28.18     5.50P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff         31   46   +5       2.17    60.71     2.47    66.65     5.28     5.36     0.01     0.10    12.70     2.40P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   31   42   +4      -1.88    41.22     1.27    62.30     5.22     3.80     0.00     0.00     3.03     0.62P    0.01R    0.00  
Preston         31   42   +0       1.38    57.16     1.64    61.98     5.16    -0.21     0.00     0.00     2.23     0.40P    0.01R    0.00  
Wolverhampton   31   40   -2      -4.66    29.00    -5.50    60.40     5.21    -2.06     0.00     0.00     1.26     0.31P    0.05R    0.00  
Brentford       31   40   -6      -1.30    44.18    -4.24    61.64     5.34    -4.41     0.00     0.00     1.99     0.31P    0.09R    0.00  
QPR             31   39   -1      -5.56    25.68    -4.32    60.31     5.29     0.36     0.00     0.00     1.39     0.29P    0.06R    0.00  
Reading         31   37   +0      -3.38    34.29     2.44    56.81     5.23    -0.61     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P    0.50R    0.01  
Leeds_United    31   37   -5      -0.78    46.55     0.82    55.70     5.12    -7.21     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    0.92R    0.02  
Huddersfield    31   35   -2      -3.73    33.22     3.79    53.01     5.25    -5.80     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00     2.94R    0.10  
Blackburn       30   34   +1      -8.13    15.31    -1.25    56.24     5.38     1.73     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.06P    0.77R    0.02  
Fulham          31   32   -6      -6.76    20.97     0.59    51.77     5.33    -7.36     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     5.56R    0.35  
MK_Dons         31   31  -17      -3.66    33.05    -6.05    48.95     5.20   -20.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.08R    1.30  
Bristol_City    31   31  -21      -2.77    37.39    -8.27    47.25     5.12   -27.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.68R    2.76  
Rotherham       31   26  -19      -5.66    23.93    -2.23    39.99     4.89   -29.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.02R   26.02  
Charlton        31   25  -30      -5.78    22.77   -12.73    39.01     4.87   -39.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.84R   39.57  
Bolton          31   24  -22      -9.67    10.46    -8.88    39.66     4.98   -29.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.45R   29.85  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 16 February 2016, Blackpool 0 0 Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Burton_Albion    30   63  +17      17.81    98.43    10.89    86.92     5.61    20.05    45.52    69.24    98.93    75.24P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham       31   58  +20       9.05    85.67    10.17    82.05     5.47    25.29    15.85    37.28    94.32    50.53P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          30   57  +17       9.82    88.39     8.10    82.06     5.56    21.76    15.76    36.07    93.70    49.76P    0.00     0.00  
Wigan            31   56  +21      -0.84    45.39    -0.09    82.87     5.35    30.33    20.06    45.14    95.83    63.63P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry         31   52  +22       1.97    59.03    10.66    75.39     5.43    26.32     1.81     6.97    67.43    22.55P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         31   50   +8       2.17    59.71    -0.05    72.92     5.50    11.48     0.59     2.77    45.73    13.04P    0.00     0.00  
Southend         31   47   +3       6.24    77.17     5.29    66.74     5.34     1.98     0.02     0.15    10.00     1.87P    0.04R    0.00  
Bradford         30   47   +3       5.16    73.71     1.66    70.24     5.52     5.09     0.17     0.90    26.06     6.09P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        31   45   +4      -2.58    38.18    -3.65    68.15     5.43     7.80     0.05     0.30    16.65     4.54P    0.02R    0.00  
Port_Vale        32   45   -1       3.44    66.30     2.19    63.79     5.12    -1.53     0.00     0.02     3.20     0.61P    0.18R    0.00  
Peterborough     30   44   +9      -2.23    39.50     1.30    69.83     5.66    14.92     0.12     0.86    27.72     7.65P    0.01R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       30   44   -1       4.94    72.86     2.20    65.01     5.58    -2.46     0.02     0.09     6.17     1.08P    0.20R    0.00  
Barnsley         30   42   +5      -2.74    37.69    -0.20    66.31     5.66     8.68     0.02     0.21    10.82     2.68P    0.10R    0.00  
Bury             30   40  -12       6.34    78.52    -0.18    58.06     5.48   -18.17     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.05P    5.07R    0.02  
Swindon          31   39   -2      -7.70    18.27    -8.28    61.31     5.46     0.50     0.00     0.00     1.67     0.43P    1.35R    0.00  
Rochdale         30   38   -3      -2.51    38.62    -1.85    59.82     5.62    -3.40     0.00     0.00     1.03     0.17P    2.53R    0.01  
Doncaster        30   36   -5      -4.26    30.48    -3.80    57.21     5.59    -6.05     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.06P    6.29R    0.03  
Blackpool        31   34   -8      -4.90    28.36    -3.25    52.86     5.33   -10.26     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   21.59R    0.35  
Shrewsbury       31   33  -14      -4.32    30.78    -6.10    50.19     5.34   -19.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.14R    1.22  
Chesterfield     31   31  -12      -9.31    13.33    -8.47    51.30     5.39   -12.57     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   30.89R    0.75  
Fleetwood_Town   29   30   -3      -7.12    18.63     0.58    50.87     5.68    -6.44     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   32.53R    0.95  
Crewe            31   28  -20      -2.79    37.41    -1.42    43.44     5.08   -28.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.81R   13.64  
Oldham           29   26  -13      -7.82    15.83    -4.54    45.29     5.60   -18.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.43R    7.71  
Colchester       31   23  -35      -6.20    21.97   -11.16    36.65     4.98   -47.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.82R   75.32  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 16 February 2016, Accrington_Stanley 1 1 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Northampton          30   67  +25      17.39    98.27    12.14    94.09     5.67    32.72    79.69    98.83    99.99    99.12P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             30   59  +20       9.10    86.61     7.29    85.90     5.57    27.20    14.24    82.35    99.40    87.17P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           30   55  +20       6.80    79.46     9.64    81.45     5.57    26.61     4.21    57.30    96.09    68.00P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   28   49  +15       8.17    84.36    11.58    75.39     6.13    17.48     0.61    17.93    74.37    29.62P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              30   49   +7       2.47    61.80    -0.98    73.16     5.66    10.30     0.15     8.10    60.14    21.67P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           29   48  +22       0.77    53.86    10.90    76.27     5.88    29.34     0.94    22.78    81.26    40.18P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield            32   48   +6       6.84    79.06     9.77    66.31     5.14     4.78     0.00     0.38    15.65     2.99P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       30   47   +8       4.88    72.43     6.23    71.10     5.67    11.19     0.06     3.87    47.11    13.79P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient        31   46   +1      -4.48    30.40   -11.03    71.11     5.55     7.89     0.04     3.73    46.28    17.14P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        29   45  +10       3.48    66.47     7.54    68.89     5.87    10.79     0.03     2.67    33.45     9.20P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        31   44   +1       3.22    65.12     3.93    62.82     5.37    -1.79     0.00     0.12     5.79     1.20P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle             28   43   +4       4.52    71.18     4.36    67.31     6.17     3.04     0.02     1.59    24.12     5.84P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               30   40   -4       0.31    52.10    -1.43    60.69     5.65    -5.97     0.00     0.03     2.99     0.65P    0.06R    0.00  
Notts_County         29   39   -6      -3.43    34.72    -9.79    63.91     5.99    -3.75     0.00     0.29    10.06     2.67P    0.01R    0.00  
Luton                31   38   -2      -5.18    27.27    -3.02    59.53     5.42    -0.60     0.00     0.01     1.74     0.44P    0.09R    0.01  
Crawley_Town         31   37  -16      -2.85    37.70   -11.76    56.70     5.45   -17.41     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.07P    0.49R    0.04  
Morecambe            31   36   -5      -4.36    30.80    -1.00    56.42     5.51    -5.56     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.12P    0.44R    0.04  
Barnet               29   36   -6       1.32    57.24     2.06    56.21     5.82   -10.80     0.00     0.01     0.68     0.13P    0.72R    0.08  
Stevenage            32   34  -12      -8.93    15.16   -10.19    51.56     5.22   -14.66     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    2.96R    0.43  
Newport_County       29   30  -10      -4.88    27.14    -2.64    50.40     5.68   -14.35     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    6.10R    1.21  
Hartlepool           28   27  -19      -1.54    43.19    -3.98    44.69     5.60   -29.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.47R   10.96  
York                 30   26  -20      -7.96    15.86    -9.27    43.44     5.35   -26.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.82R   14.35  
Yeovil               30   24  -15     -13.37     4.84    -9.62    43.42     5.55   -18.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.30R   12.99  
Dag_&_Red            30   20  -24     -12.70     4.94   -10.74    37.24     5.40   -31.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.53R   59.88  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 16 February 2016, Altrincham 0 3 Chester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Cheltenham       33   75  +43       7.02    80.16     7.94   100.35     4.71    54.40    85.28   100.00    91.08P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     33   71  +26      12.19    92.61     5.42    93.17     4.97    32.66    12.78    99.94    35.74P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          31   59  +37      -2.94    34.84     7.57    86.08     5.23    46.74     1.93    97.75    39.24P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         33   54  +11      -3.35    34.55    -6.93    75.47     4.95    16.32     0.00    51.95    11.88P    0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic   31   52  +13       4.68    70.92     5.91    75.40     5.43    17.26     0.01    51.74     7.16P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead        32   51   -6       7.32    80.50    -5.37    68.84     5.06    -8.13     0.00     9.12     1.05P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town   30   50  +10       5.72    76.31     5.23    73.50     5.46    12.46     0.00    35.67     5.58P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh        31   50   +6       2.52    61.70    -1.20    73.05     5.37     9.78     0.00    32.08     4.85P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham          33   49  +12      -2.45    39.02     2.79    67.75     4.86    13.30     0.00     7.67     1.22P    0.00     0.00  
Woking           33   49  +12      -4.17    31.57    -0.01    66.96     4.94    11.89     0.00     6.14     1.05P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City     34   49   +6       1.62    57.63     5.15    65.34     4.69     5.57     0.00     2.37     0.27P    0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     33   47   +7      -2.20    39.95     1.17    66.80     4.93     9.98     0.00     5.09     0.82P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot        32   42   -7       1.28    56.67    -2.36    60.83     5.09    -7.52     0.00     0.25     0.02P    0.08R    0.00  
Southport        32   39  -10       4.10    70.03     3.31    56.01     4.96   -13.23     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.33R    0.07  
Bromley          31   38   -5       1.11    56.06     5.53    58.32     5.59    -5.80     0.00     0.22     0.02P    0.71R    0.03  
Chester          32   38   -8       0.62    53.93     2.41    55.41     5.08   -11.01     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.65R    0.06  
Barrow           32   38  -17       4.95    73.01     1.65    54.10     5.20   -22.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.06R    0.19  
Guiseley         31   37  -16       4.62    72.20    -0.47    51.75     5.04   -24.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.24R    0.52  
Altrincham       32   33  -23       1.99    61.01    -2.46    49.05     5.06   -27.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.94R    2.76  
Boreham_Wood     32   32   -6      -4.34    30.71     3.79    49.31     5.06    -8.34     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.71R    1.54  
Halifax          31   30  -21      -7.72    17.68   -12.39    47.15     5.24   -27.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.05R    6.30  
Welling          31   26  -18      -6.82    18.89    -3.63    41.79     5.05   -25.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.21R   27.91  
Kidderminster    32   23  -19     -13.70     4.17    -7.96    40.56     5.05   -21.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.83R   34.99  
Torquay          29   20  -27     -12.71     4.66   -15.09    42.69     5.79   -28.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.18R   25.63